Estimating induced land use change emissions for sustainable aviation biofuel pathways

Assessing the particulate matter emission reduction characteristics of small turbofan engine fueled with 100 % HEFA sustainable aviation fuel

With the continuous increase in global air transportation, the impact of ultrafine particulate matter (PM) emissions from aviation on human health and environmental pollution is becoming increasingly severe. In addition to carbon reduction throughout the lifecycle, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) also represent a significant pathway for reducing PM emissions. However, due to issues such as airworthiness safety and adaptability, existing research has mostly focused on the emission performance of SAF when blended with traditional fuels at <50 %, leaving the emission characteristics of higher blending ratios to be explored. In this study, using measurement methods recommended by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the PM emission reduction characteristics of small turbofan engines fueled with 100 % Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA)-SAF were experimentally evaluated and compared with traditional fuels RP-3 and Diesel, while avoiding the interference of lubricant blending combustion. The results showed that the peak number concentration of particle size distribution (PSD), PM total number, as well as the number and mass concentration of non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) decreased initially and then increased with rising thrust conditions. HEFA-SAF exhibits PSD with smaller diameters, and the Geometric Mean Diameter (GMD) ranges from 7.7 nm to 20.3 nm under all conditions. Both volatile particulates (vPM) and nvPM from HEFA-SAF are significantly reduced, with nvPM number emission index (EIn) being 92 % and 71 % lower than Diesel and RP-3, respectively. The nvPM mass emission index (EIm) also shows reductions of 96 % and 89 % compared to Diesel and RP-3. Microscopic characterization also indicated that using HEFA-SAF emitted fewer and smaller PMs. This study establishes a foundation for evaluating the effectiveness of 100 % SAF in reducing PM emissions within the aviation sector, and contributes to the airworthiness regulations development related to the use of SAF in a variety of application environments, alongside enhancing environmental protection measures.

Spatially Varying Costs of GHG Abatement with Alternative Cellulosic Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Cellulosic biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) can be produced from various feedstocks. The breakeven price and carbon intensity of these feedstock-to-SAF pathways are likely to differ across feedstocks and across spatial locations due to differences in feedstock attributes, productivity, opportunity costs of land for feedstock production, soil carbon effects, and feedstock composition. We integrate feedstock to fuel supply chain economics and life-cycle carbon accounting using the same system boundary to quantify and compare the spatially varying greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and costs of GHG abatement with SAFs derived from four feedstocks (switchgrass, miscanthus, energy sorghum, and corn stover) at 4 km resolution across the U.S. rainfed region. We show that the optimal feedstock for each location differs depending on whether the incentive is to lower breakeven price, carbon intensity, or cost of carbon abatement with biomass or to have high biomass production per unit land. The cost of abating GHG emissions with SAF ranges from $181 Mg-1 CO2e to more than $444 Mg-1 CO2e and is lowest with miscanthus in the Midwest, switchgrass in the south, and energy sorghum in a relatively small region in the Great Plains. While corn stover-based SAF has the lowest breakeven price per gallon, it has the highest cost of abatement due to its relatively high GHG intensity. Our findings imply that different types of policies, such as volumetric targets, tax credits, and low carbon fuel standards, will differ in the mix of feedstocks they incentivize and locations where they are produced in the U.S. rainfed region.

Planned expansion of transportation infrastructure in Brazil has implications for the pattern of agricultural production and carbon emissions

High transportation costs have been a barrier to the expansion of agriculture in the interior of Brazil. To reduce transportation costs, Brazil launched the National Logistics Plan, aiming to expand its railway network by up to 91 % by 2035. Such a large-scale infrastructure investment raises concerns about its economic and environmental consequences. By combining geospatial estimation of transportation cost with a grid-resolving, multi-scale economic model that bridges fine-scale crop production with its trade and demand from national and global perspectives, we explore impacts of transportation infrastructure expansion on agricultural production, land use changes, and carbon emissions both locally and nationally in Brazil. We find that globally, the impacts on output and land use changes are small. However, within Brazil, the plan's primary impacts are impressive. PNL2035 results in the reduction of transportation costs by 8-23 % across states (depending on expansion's extent) in the interior Cerrado biome. This results in cropland expansion and increases in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado region. However, the increase in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado is offset by spillover effects elsewhere in Brazil, as crop production shifts away from the Southeast-South regions and accompanying change in the mix of transportation mode for farm products from roadway to more emission-efficient railway. Furthermore, we argue that the transportation infrastructure's impact on the enhanced mobility of labor and other agricultural inputs would further accentuate the regional shift in agricultural production and contribute to carbon emission mitigation. Upon its completion, PNL2035 is expected to result in the reduction of net national emissions by 1.8-30.7 million metric ton of CO2-equivalent, depending on the impacts on labor and purchased input mobility. We conclude that the omission of spillover effects due to infrastructure expansion can lead to misleading assessments of transport policies.

Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.

Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Land-based carbon removals, specifically afforestation/reforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), vary widely in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Because underlying drivers are difficult to assess, we use a well-known integrated assessment model, GCAM, to demonstrate that land-based carbon removals are sensitive to the strength and scope of land-based mitigation policies. We find that while cumulative afforestation/reforestation and BECCS deployment are inversely related, they are both typically part of cost-effective mitigation pathways, with forestry options deployed earlier. While the CO2 removal intensity (removal per unit land) of BECCS is typically higher than afforestation/reforestation over long time horizons, the BECCS removal intensity is sensitive to feedstock and technology choices whereas the afforestation/reforestation removal intensity is sensitive to land policy choices. Finally, we find a generally positive relationship between agricultural prices and removal effectiveness of land-based mitigation, suggesting that some trade-offs may be difficult to avoid.

Evaluating airports' Sustainable Development Goals by using multi-criteria decision making methodologies

BACKGROUND

The recent growth of the aviation industry, which poses significant environmental challenges, has heightened the pressure on the sustainability of airports. Airport sustainability requires a holistic approach that encompasses economic, social, environmental, and operational aspects. In this regard, the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Agenda provides a roadmap for the aviation industry. However, despite recognizing the importance of SDGs, aviation authorities and airports often fail to effectively integrate them into their activities and annual reports.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the significance of SDGs for airports and select the airport that prioritizes SDGs the most using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodologies.

METHODS

This study introduces a novel approach that integrates Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) methods, which are MCDM techniques, to enhance airport sustainability. The SWARA method is employed to evaluate and assign weights to the SDGs in the context of airports.

RESULTS

SDG 8 holds the highest level of significance among the goals concerning airports, while SDG 14 falls outside the scope of airport sustainability aspects. Then, five international airports that have been designated as green airports by aviation authorities and assessment organizations are selected, and the optimal alternative is determined using the WASPAS method, considering the weights obtained through SWARA.

CONCLUSION

Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport is the top choice due to its successful implementations and reports aligning with the SDGs.

Decoupling of land-use net carbon flux, economic growth, and population change in China

In the process of China's modernization, promoting the sustainable development of resource-based cities is a major strategic issue and it has now also become a worldwide issue. This study uses the coupling model to validate the coupling relationship between China's land-use net carbon flux and economic growth and population change during 2009-2017. The study for the first time draws the conclusion that the coupling degree among the three is getting lower, the correlation is gradually weaker, and the independent relationship is becoming more and more prominent. Utilizing the Tapio decoupling model, we obtained the weak decoupling conclusion that the economic growth rate is higher than the growth rate of the land-use net carbon flux, while negative decoupling of sprawl is where the rate of population growth is less than the rate of net land-use carbon flux growth.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Brazilian Sugar Cane Ethanol Evaluated with the GREET Model Using Data Submitted to RenovaBio

Brazil is the second-largest ethanol producer in the world, primarily using sugar cane as feedstock. To foster biofuel production, the Brazilian government implemented a national biofuel policy, known as RenovaBio, in which greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction credits are provided to biofuel producers based on the carbon intensities (CI) of the fuels they produce. In this study, we configured the GREET model to evaluate life cycle GHG emissions of Brazilian sugar cane ethanol, using data from 67 individual sugar cane mills submitted to RenovaBio in 2019/2020. The average CI per megajoule of sugar cane ethanol produced in Brazil for use in the U.S. was estimated to be 35.2 g of CO2 equivalent, a 62% reduction from U.S. petroleum gasoline blendstock without considering the impacts of land use change. The three major GHG sources were on-field N2O emissions (24.3%), sugar cane farming energy use (24.2%), and sugar cane ethanol transport (19.3%). With the probability density functions for key input parameters derived from individual mill data, we performed stochastic simulations with the GREET model to estimate the variations in sugar cane ethanol CI and confirmed that despite the larger variations in sugar cane ethanol CI, the fuel provided a robust GHG reduction benefit compared to gasoline blendstock.

How to make climate-neutral aviation fly

The European aviation sector must substantially reduce climate impacts to reach net-zero goals. This reduction, however, must not be limited to flight CO₂ emissions since such a narrow focus leaves up to 80% of climate impacts unaccounted for. Based on rigorous life-cycle assessment and a time-dependent quantification of non-CO₂ climate impacts, here we show that, from a technological standpoint, using electricity-based synthetic jet fuels and compensating climate impacts via direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) can enable climate-neutral aviation. However, with a continuous increase in air traffic, synthetic jet fuel produced with electricity from renewables would exert excessive pressure on economic and natural resources. Alternatively, compensating climate impacts of fossil jet fuel via DACCS would require massive CO₂ storage volumes and prolong dependence on fossil fuels. Here, we demonstrate that a European climate-neutral aviation will fly if air traffic is reduced to limit the scale of the climate impacts to mitigate.

Emerging microalgae-based biofuels: Technology, life-cycle and scale-up

Microalgae biomass is a versatile feedstock with a variable composition that can be submitted to several conversion routes. Considering the increasing energy demand and the context of third-generation biofuels, algae can fulfill the increasing global demand for energy with the additional benefit of environmental impact mitigation. While biodiesel and biogas are widely consolidated and reviewed, emerging algal-based biofuels such as biohydrogen, biokerosene, and biomethane are cutting-edge technologies in earlier stages of development. In this context, the present study covers their theoretical and practical conversion technologies, environmental hotspots, and cost-effectiveness. Scaling-up considerations are also addressed, mainly through Life Cycle Assessment results and interpretation. Discussions on the current literature for each biofuel directs researchers towards challenges such as optimized pretreatment methods for biohydrogen and optimized catalyst for biokerosene, besides encouraging pilot and industrial scale studies for all biofuels. While presenting studies for larger scales, biomethane still needs continuous operation results to consolidate the technology further. Additionally, environmental improvements on all three routes are discussed in light of life-cycle models, highlighting the ample research opportunities on wastewater-grown microalgae biomass.

Implications of preferential access to land and clean energy for sustainable aviation fuels

Aviation is highly dependent on liquid fossil fuel, and the production of 'sustainable aviation fuels' (SAF) is being proposed as a solution to removing the fossil carbon component, especially for long-haul flights. An analysis of 12 aviation roadmaps for net zero 2050 reveals heavy reliance on biogenic SAF in the medium-term and synthetic e-kerosene in the longer term. Realising these roadmaps could require 9 % of global renewable electricity and 30 % of sustainably available biomass in 2050, with significant energy 'losses'. The continued use of hydrocarbon fuel in the roadmaps generates 1.35 GtCO₂ in 2050, of which 30 % are still from fossil fuel. The net carbon savings from the 70 % depend on the direct and indirect life cycle emissions of producing SAF. Additional effects that are omitted in most roadmaps relate to decadal time lags in re-sequestering biocarbon in the case of forest biomass and the impact of non-CO₂ emissions. Both require greater scrutiny in fully understanding the climate impact of SAF substitution. The scaling up of SAF to not only maintain but grow global aviation is problematic as it competes for land needed for nature-based carbon removal, clean energy that could more effectively decarbonise other sectors, and captured CO₂ to be stored permanently. As such, SAF production undermines global goals of limiting warming to 1.5°; a conflict that is neither recognised in the roadmaps nor in the public debate.

Civil aviation emissions in Argentina

The impact of aviation on climate change is reflected in increasing emissions of CO2 and other pollutants from fuel burning emitted at high altitudes, representing 2.9 % of total Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in 2019. However, mitigations options for decarbonization of aviation are difficult to implement given operational safety, technology maturity, energy density and other constraints. One alternative for mitigation is the use of certified sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) with lower carbon intensity than conventional jet fuel (CJF). This research presents an inventory of Argentine civil aviation emissions for its domestic and international flights, and analyzes the possibility of supplying SAF as a mitigation strategy given its abundant biomass production. Argentine aviation activity is presented as a monthly 4D (latitude, longitude, altitude and time) spatial inventory for the interval 2001-2021, based on origin and destination city pairs, aircraft types and airlines. Fuel consumption and pollutant emissions were calculated for landing-and-take-off and cruise phases. Monthly domestic ranged from 67 to 179 kt CO_2eq (2001-2019). Annual peak values occurred in 2019 consuming 560 kt CJF and direct emitting of 1.77 Mt CO_2eq. While Revenue-Passenger-Kilometer (RPK) grew almost 4 times (4.18 × 10⁹ in 2001 to 16.42 × 10⁹ in 2019), the number of flights changed only 1.5 times (from 98,000 in 2002 to 152,000 in 2019). The main efficiency indexes varied from 97 t CJF/RPK, 308 gCO_2eq/RPK to 34 t CJF/RPK, 107 gCO_2eq/RPK between 2001 and 2019, respectively, showing an average annual improvement of 3.5 % due to partial fleet renewal, especially from 2015 onwards. Emissions of other pollutants for 2019 reached total values of CO 14.14 kt; NOx 6.77 kt; PM tot 55.12 kt. For the period 2001-2019, international aviation consumed between 1 Mt - 1.5 Mt CJF, directly emitting between 3.30 and 4.80 Mt of CO_2eq; RPKs went from 6.234 × 10⁹ to 20.524 × 10⁹; the efficiency indices ranged from 529 to 240 gCO_2eq/RPK. The most important changes occurred with an optimization of routes and number of flights and the replacement of the four-engines (B747, A380) by more efficient twin-engines (B777, A330) aircraft. Argentina is not required to any offsetting regulatory program due to its small aviation market (approx. 0.22 % global market in 2019), nor has to date certified SAF production pathways, nevertheless it has potential for SAF availability based on actual biofuels production (ethanol, biodiesel and soybean oil) and biomass feedstock's existences. In this sense this studies proposes that 2019 domestic fuel consumption could be supplied using 79 % exportable amounts of sugarcane ethanol (257 ± 53 kt) (by Ethanol to Jet ETJ) and 34 % of exportable soybean oil (1079 ± 160 kt) (by hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids- HEFA) pathways. For this scenario average GHG emissions reached 1.321 ± 0.115 Mt CO2eq; which would imply a 62 % of the current emission value using CJF (2.17Mt CO2eq), or savings of about 838 kt CO2eq (38 %). At the 2019 level of harvest and biofuel production, up to 1.4 Mt of SAF could be produced from sugarcane ethanol/ETJ and soybean oil/HEFA mitigating up to 1.8 MtCO2eq. A 35 kt CO_2eq annual sectoral national mitigation strategy could be reached by using 14 kt of SAF.

Towards carbon neutrality: what has been done and what needs to be done for carbon emission reduction?

Carbon emissions embodied in anthropogenic activities represent the major cause of global warming. Countries, regions, and cities have implemented comprehensive, multi-level and multi-scale measures to reduce emissions and move towards carbon neutrality. The demand for carbon emission reduction (CER) is made more challenging by different geographical locations, country-owned natural resources, and economic development stages. The main objectives of this paper are to conduct a bibliometric analysis to map the frontiers and directions of CER and to explore the paths and development models of CER from the perspective of spatio-temporal, multi-scale, multi-sectoral, and multi-responsible subjects. This study reveals that carbon emission evaluation and prediction, correlation and causal relationship analysis, and CER-related policy simulation and optimization are the most critical hotspots. Additionally, we point out the shortcomings of and future developments for the three study dimensions above. The bibliometric analysis also highlights the fact that a cooperative global value chain as well as amendable policies and mechanisms for CER will help with climate change mitigation and adaptation through the use of advanced carbon capture and storage technologies. We review the technical measures for and policy responses to CER adopted by different countries and industries at the theoretical and practical levels and provide new recommendations. Our work provides important information for climate actions in different countries and sectors and for developing more effective CER strategies and policies.

A review of domestic land use change attributable to U.S. biofuel policy

Estimates of land use change (LUC) attributable to the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) are critical for evaluation of the program's impacts on air and water quality, biodiversity, and soil quality. To improve our understanding of the range of published estimates, we reviewed 29 studies published since 2008 attributing domestic LUC to the RFS, updating previous comparisons and adding a growing number of empirical approaches to estimating biofuel-induced LUC. To identify principal reasons underlying differences in reported effects, we documented key attributes of studies' methods including spatial extent, time period, baseline scenario, policy influence, and LUC definitions. Across computable general equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) economic simulation model studies we found a range of 0.01-2.45 million acres of net cropland expansion per billion-gallon increase in biofuels. Empirical approaches reporting national-scale estimates fall within this range, reporting 0.38-0.66 million acres per billion-gallon increase. Empirical studies had a much smaller range of estimates and were closer to PE approaches than CGE. Studies generally did not represent all the potential drivers of biofuel production, and instead reported projections reflecting a combination of RFS impacts and other influences. Additional refinements to the modeling and empirical approaches reviewed in this study can further improve our understanding of the land use change driven by biofuels and the RFS Program.

Attributional and consequential LCAs of a novel bio-jet fuel from Dutch potato by-products

To mitigate the climate change impact of aviation, jet fuels from bio-based by-products are considered a promising alternative to conventional jet fuels. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a commonly applied tool to determine the environmental impacts of bio-jet fuels. This article presents both attributional and consequential LCA models to assess an innovative bio-jet fuel produced from potato by-products in the Netherlands. The two models led to opposite conclusions regarding the overall environmental performance of this bio-jet fuel. The attributional LCA showed that this bio-jet fuel could offer about a 60% GHG emissions reduction compared to conventional jet fuel. In comparison, the consequential LCA estimated either a much lower climate change benefit (5-40%) if the potato by-products taken from the animal feed market are replaced with European animal feed or a 70% increase in GHG emissions if also imported soybean meals are used to replace the feed. Contrasting conclusions were also obtained for photochemical ozone formation. Conversely, the attributional and consequential LCAs agree on acidification, terrestrial eutrophication and depletion of fossil fuels. Although the consequential LCA was affected by higher uncertainties related to the determination of the actual product displaced, it allowed understanding the consequence of additional animal feed production. This process was not included in the system boundaries of the attributional LCA.