Enhancing water and land efficiency in agricultural production and trade between Central Asia and China

China's dietary changes would increase agricultural blue and green water footprint

Agriculture accounts for 61 % of fresh water consumption in China. Although population and diet have a significant impact on water consumption, little is known about the reasons for and extent of their influence. Changes in the blue and green water footprint of 20 agricultural sectors in 31 Chinese provinces were estimated in 5 scenarios by applying the environmentally expanded multi-regional input-output model. The water footprint network is strongly interconnected, with over 50 % of the provinces characterized as net importers of the blue water footprint, 70 % of the total blue and green water footprint imports in developed provinces, and 65 % of the total blue and green water footprint exports in developing provinces, with the flow distribution driven and dominated by economically developed provinces. The findings also highlighted that the impact of population change on the water footprint is insignificant, contributing 0.51 % and 5.78 % to the reduction of the water footprint in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The impact of simultaneous changes in the population and dietary structure on the water footprint was higher than population changes and lower than dietary structure changes. The main force driving changes in the water footprint was changes in the dietary structure, which resulted in a two-fold effect on the water footprint. First, it has increased the blue and green water footprint by 33 % and 12 %, respectively, thus aggravating the coercive impact on water resources on the production side. Second, it has led to a change in the main contributing sectors for the blue and green water footprint from cereals to fruits, vegetables, and potatoes. Therefore, when the population is changing and optimizing its dietary structures, a greater focus must be placed on threats and pressures to water resources. This will result in better scientific management and more efficient use of water resources.

Research on emergy evaluation method of ecological water use efficiency based on comprehensive benefits

Scientifically evaluating ecological water use efficiency (EWUE) is an effective means to regulate the level of ecological water use in a country or a region. It is also a basic work to achieve high-efficiency use of ecological water under the current situation of water shortage. However, there were few researches on EWUE, and existing studies only focus on eco-environmental benefits generated by ecological water, without considering its impact on economy and society. An emergy evaluation method for EWUE based on comprehensive benefits was proposed in this paper innovatively. Considering the impact of ecological water use on society, economy, and eco-environment, the concept of EWUE could be defined. Then, comprehensive benefits of ecological water use (CBEW) were quantified by emergy method, and EWUE was evaluated by the comprehensive benefits of unit ecological water use. Taking Zhengzhou City as an example for calculation, from 2011 to 2020, CBEW increased from 5.20 × 10¹⁹ sej to 6.72 × 10²⁰ sej, showing an overall upward trend, and EWUE rose from 2.71 × 10¹¹ sej/m³ (1.27￥/m³) to 1.32 × 10¹² sej/m³ (8.10￥/m³) with fluctuation. It showed that Zhengzhou City has paid enough attention to the allocation of ecological water and EWUE at a high level. The method proposed in this paper provides a new idea to evaluate EWUE scientifically, and the results can provide guidance to allocate ecological water resources to achieve sustainable development.

The impacts of China's crops trade on virtual water flow and water use sustainability of the "Belt and Road"

Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, the trade of crops between China and the countries have increased markedly. Agriculture is the most water-consuming sector, the trade of crops could influence national water availability via virtual water embodied in the products. In order to gain an in-depth understanding of the water use of crops traded in countries along the "Belt and Road", from the perspective of import and export of China's crops, based on the characteristics and driving factors of virtual water trade, we proposed the Water Use Potential Index (WUPI) to assess sustainability of countries and their crops, and constructed a more comprehensive virtual water trade research framework. Results showed that the import and export of virtual water in 64 countries was dominated by green virtual water content from 2001 to 2017, and China was in a virtual water trade surplus. The Association of South-East Asian Nations was China's leading importer and exporter. The level of agricultural available water resources, the proportion of the agricultural population, the scale of agricultural production and the virtual water intensity could promote the growth of virtual water trade in crops between China and countries along the "Belt and Road", while economic model and the population structure played a restraining role. In terms of water use potential, China and Kazakhstan had great sustainable water use potential for crops, and the trade structure of other countries still needed to be further optimized. Understanding the virtual water trade in crops can provide a reference for the rational planning of crop cultivation and water resource conservation.

Challenges Threatening Agricultural Sustainability in Central Asia: Status and Prospect

Agriculture provides humanity with the most basic products to sustain life and raw materials for production, closely linking human society and nature together. The sustainable development of agriculture, an inevitable choice to maintain long-term social stability, steady economic growth, and ecological security, is the key to the coordinated development of the economy, society, and environment in developing Central Asia economies. We attempted to evaluate the trend of agricultural sustainability in Central Asia between 2002 and 2017 by adopting analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method in this study. It was found that the overall sustainability level of regional agriculture is rising, which is mainly driven by economic progress, with social and ecological dimensions contributing much less. Accordingly, we advanced four suggestions: enhancing water productivity, optimizing planting techniques, improving agricultural cooperatives, and promoting digital land management to boost the agricultural sustainability of the region.

Regional water resources security grading evaluation considering both visible and virtual water: a case study on Hubei province, China

The security of water resources is of great importance to long-term sustainability. In order to better ensure the security of water resources, a significant link is to conduct water resources security evaluation, which should be considered from many perspectives as it involves natural reserves, social production, the efficiency of use, and environmental protection. In this paper, a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process sort (AHPSort) II-entropy weight (EW) method for regional water resources security evaluation is proposed based on the security of visible water and virtual water. Firstly, this paper takes into account the criterion of efficiency of water use in addition to two other criteria of quantity of water resources, pressure on water resources to establish a comprehensive water resources security evaluation system. Secondly, a combination method of hesitant fuzzy language judgment and entropy weight is employed to obtain the weight of each indicator. Thirdly, AHPSort II is used to classify the security levels of the evaluated regions, in which the security levels of regional water resources are divided into five levels. Furthermore, a case study on the cities of Hubei province, China, is conducted to show the applicability of the proposed method, the effectiveness, and reliability of the method are then verified by being compared with a subjective method and an objective method as well as sensitivity analysis. Finally, according to the comprehensive evaluation results, specific management suggestions for improving the water resources security in the case are put forward.

Livestock water and land productivity in Kenya and their implications for future resource use

Population growth and rising affluence increase the demand for agricultural commodities. Associated growth in production increases dependency on natural resources in countries that attempt to meet part or all of the new demand locally. This study assesses the impact of changing meat and milk production on natural resource use in Kenya under three plausible scenarios of socio-economic development, namely Business-As-Usual (BAU), Sustainable Development (SDP) and Kenya Vision 2030 (V2030) scenarios. The IMPACT model is used to estimate projected cattle, sheep, goats and camel production parameters for meat and milk. The BAU and SDP represent standard scenarios for Kenya of a global economic model, IMPACT, while V2030 incorporates in the model features specific to Kenya's medium-term national development plan. We use calculations of water footprint and land footprint as resource use indicators to quantify the anticipated appropriation of water and land resources for meat and milk production and trade by 2040. Though camel dairy production numbers increase the most by quadrupling between 2005 and 2040, it is cattle dairy production that significantly determined gains in production between the scenarios. Productivity gains under the SDP scenario does not match the investments made thereby leading to only slightly better values for water and land productivity than those achieved under the BAU scenario. Relative to the BAU scenario, improvement in land productivity under the V2030 scenario is the most dramatic for shoat milk production in the arid and semi-arid systems but the least marked for cattle milk production in the humid system. By quantifying water and land productivity across heterogenous production systems, our findings can aid decision-makers in Kenya and other developing countries to understand the implications of strategies aimed at increasing domestic agricultural and livestock production on water and land resources both locally and through trade with other countries.

Evaluation of Regional Water Resources Management Performance and Analysis of the Influencing Factors: A Case Study in China

Water resources management (WRM) is a global strategic issue. Effectively evaluating WRM performance and analyzing its influencing factors have strong practical significance for improving regional WRM performance. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is one of the most popular models to measure the efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs). Taking regional WRM performance as efficiency DMUs, this paper proposes the indicator system to quantify WRM performance from the perspectives of resource endowments, economic and technological development, and ecosystem protection. The WRM performance of 31 provincial administrative regions in mainland China from 2013 to 2019 are measured, and the temporal and spatial changes are explored using the window DEA model and the Malmquist index model. Finally, the Tobit model is used to quantitatively analyze the affecting factors. The results indicate that: (1) in 2015 and 2019, WRM performance of Sichuan, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Guangxi were slightly higher than that in other years, and the areas with more room for WRM performance improvements were areas with abundant water resources; (2) from 2013 to 2019, China’s overall WRM performance showed a slow rise, and there were obvious fluctuations in 2018; (3) the improvement in WRM performance was primarily the result of an improvement to comprehensive technical efficiency changes (EC), whereas technological progress changes (TC) have largely restricted China’s WRM performance; (4) the main influencing factors of WRM performance in China were as follows: industrial development level, water resources utilization rate, and urban sewage discharge per capita.

The Supply of Calories, Proteins, and Fats in Low-Income Countries: A Four-Decade Retrospective Study

Over the past decades, both the quantity and quality of food supply for millions of people have improved substantially in the course of economic growth across the developing world. However, the number of undernourished people has resumed growth in the 2010s amid food supply disruptions, economic slowdowns, and protectionist restrictions to agricultural trade. Having been common to most nations, these challenges to the food security status of the population still vary depending on the level of economic development and national income of individual countries. In order to explore the long-run determinants of food supply transformations, this study employs five-stage multiple regression analysis to identify the strengths and directions of effects of agricultural production parameters, income level, price indices, food trade, and currency exchange on supply of calories, proteins, and fats across 11 groups of agricultural products in 1980-2018. To address the diversity of effects across developing nations, the study includes 99 countries of Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa categorized as low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income economies. It is found that in low-income countries, food supply parameters are more strongly affected by production factors compared to economic and trade variables. The effect of economic factors on the food supply of higher-value food products, such as meat and dairy products, fruit, and vegetables, increases with the rise in the level of income, but it stays marginal for staples in all three groups of countries. The influence of trade factors on food supply is stronger compared to production and economic parameters in import-dependent economies irrelevant of the gross national income per capita. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the research on how food supply patterns and their determinants evolve in the course of economic transformations in low-income countries.