National scale predictions of contemporary and future blue carbon storage

Quantifying blue carbon stocks and the role of protected areas to conserve coastal wetlands

Vegetated coastal ecosystems, in particular mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses are highly efficient at sequestering and storing carbon, making them valuable assets for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The state of Queensland, in northeastern Australia, contains almost half of the total area of these blue carbon ecosystems in the country, yet there are few detailed regional or state-wide assessments of their total sedimentary organic carbon (SOC) stocks. We compiled existing SOC data and used boosted regression tree models to evaluate the influence of environmental variables in explaining the variability in SOC stocks, and to produce spatially explicit blue carbon estimates. The final models explained 75 % (for mangroves and tidal marshes) and 65 % (for seagrasses) of the variability in SOC stocks. Total SOC stocks in the state of Queensland were estimated at 569 ± 98 Tg C (173 ± 32 Tg C, 232 ± 50 Tg C, and 164 ± 16 Tg C from mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses, respectively). Regional predictions for each of Queensland's eleven Natural Resource Management regions revealed that 60 % of the state's SOC stocks occurred within three regions (Cape York, Torres Strait and Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management regions) due to a combination of high values of SOC stocks and large areas of coastal wetlands. Protected areas in Queensland play an important role in conserving SOC assets in Queensland's coastal wetlands. For example, ~19 Tg C within terrestrial protected areas, ~27 Tg C within marine protected areas and ~ 40 Tg C within areas of matters of State Environmental Significance. Using multi-decadal (1987-2020) mapped distributions of mangroves in Queensland; we found that mangrove area increased by approximately 30,000 ha from 1987 to 2020, which led to temporal fluctuations in mangrove plant and SOC stocks. We estimated that plant stocks decreased from ~45 Tg C in 1987 to ~34.2 Tg C in 2020, while SOC stocks remained relatively constant from ~107.9 Tg C in 1987 to 108.0 Tg C in 2020. Considering the level of current protection, emissions from mangrove deforestation are potentially very low; therefore, representing minor opportunities for mangrove blue carbon projects in the region. Our study provides much needed information on current trends in carbon stocks and their conservation in Queensland's coastal wetlands, while also contributing to guide future management actions, including blue carbon restoration projects.

A Digital Twin modelling framework for the assessment of seagrass Nature Based Solutions against storm surges

In this paper we demonstrate a novel framework for assessing nature-based solutions (NBSs) in coastal zones using a new suite of numerical models that provide a virtual "replica" of the natural environment. We design experiments that use a Digital Twin strategy to establish the wave, sea level and current attenuation due to seagrass NBSs. This Digital Twin modelling framework allows us to answer "what if" scenario questions such as: (i) are indigenous seagrass meadows able to reduce the energy of storm surges, and if so how? (ii) what are the best seagrass types and their landscaping for optimal wave and current attenuation? An important result of the study is to show that the landscaping of seagrasses is an important design choice and that seagrass does not directly attenuate the sea level but the current amplitudes. This framework reveals the link between seagrass NBS and the components of the disruptive potential of storm surges (waves and sea level) and opens up new avenues for future studies.

Quantification of blue carbon in tropical salt marshes and their role in climate change mitigation

Vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE) display a promising potential to act as natural carbon sinks in climate change mitigation. Although growing interest in wetland carbon has intensified the global level carbon stock estimation studies, large knowledge gaps and uncertainties remain, particularly in tropical salt marshes in the South and Southeast Asian regions. Therefore, the current study aims to quantify the organic carbon stocks in the salt marsh habitats on the Northwest coast of Sri Lanka and to showcase the relevance of salt marsh carbon in local and regional contexts. Vegetation and soil up to a depth of 50 cm were sampled from four sites representing the Wedithalathive Nature Reserve (WNR). Species-specific allometric relationships developed for the major succulent halophytic species indicated a significant positive correlation between dry biomass and plant height. The loss-on-ignition (LOI) technique was applied in combination with a carbon conversion factor to calculate the soil organic carbon (SOC) content across 4 depth intervals. The study provided an average total organic carbon (TOC) storage of 73 ± 14.47 Mg C ha^-1 up to a depth of 50 cm, in which the aboveground vegetation accounted for ~2% share. Sri Lankan salt marshes hold 2.01 Tg of organic carbon and directly reflect their potential for inclusion in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This has been the first comprehensive study on salt marsh blue carbon stocks in Sri Lanka and the findings of this study will strengthen the knowledge base on regional and global saltmarsh carbon stocks and their potential role in climate change mitigation.

Research Development, Current Hotspots, and Future Directions of Blue Carbon: A Bibliometric Analysis

The blue carbon ecosystem has a strong capacity for carbon sequestration, but its research progress and development are still unclear. This study used CiteSpace to conduct a visual analysis, based on the analysis of 908 articles retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection. The results showed that blue carbon research has gone through an early exploratory stage based on the scientific concept research, a research stage on the carbon sequestration process of the diverse blue carbon ecosystems, and a blue carbon protection and restoration stage based on climate change and human activities. The blue carbon theoretical framework has been continuously improved and the subject is currently more focused. The hot research topics are different at different stages. In the early stage, they focused on the types of blue carbon ecosystems and the process of carbon sequestration. Blue carbon research has developed from a single ecosystem type to multiple ecosystem types, and from concept recognition to system assessment research. Recently, research on the response, restoration and protection of blue carbon ecosystems has become a hotspot under the combined effect of human activities and climate change. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the scientific research on blue carbon, to protect the integrity of the ecosystem structure and service functions, and to make a greater contribution to the global carbon neutrality strategy.

Impacts of land-use change and urban development on carbon sequestration in tropical seagrass meadow sediments

Seagrass meadows store significant carbon stocks at a global scale, but land-use change and other anthropogenic activities can alter the natural process of organic carbon (C_org) accumulation. Here, we assessed the carbon accumulation history of two seagrass meadows in Zanzibar (Tanzania) that have experienced different degrees of disturbance. The meadow at Stone Town has been highly exposed to urban development during the 20th century, while the Mbweni meadow is located in an area with relatively low impacts but historical clearing of adjacent mangroves. The results showed that the two sites had similar sedimentary C_org accumulation rates (22-25 g m^-2 yr^-1) since the 1940s, while during the last two decades (∼1998 until 2018) they exhibited 24-30% higher accumulation of C_org, which was linked to shifts in C_org sources. The increase in the δ¹³C isotopic signature of sedimentary C_org (towards a higher seagrass contribution) at the Stone Town site since 1998 points to improved seagrass meadow conditions and C_org accumulation capacity of the meadow after the relocation of a major sewage outlet in the mid-1990s. In contrast, the decrease in the δ¹³C signatures of sedimentary C_org in the Mbweni meadow since the early 2010s was likely linked to increased C_org run-off of mangrove/terrestrial material following mangrove deforestation. This study exemplifies two different pathways by which land-based human activities can alter the carbon storage capacity of seagrass meadows (i.e. sewage waste management and mangrove deforestation) and showcases opportunities for management of vegetated coastal C_org sinks.

Modelling blue carbon farming opportunities at different spatial scales

There is a growing interest in including blue carbon ecosystems (i.e., mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses) in climate mitigation programs in national and sub-national policies, with restoration and conservation of these ecosystems identified as potential activities to increase carbon accumulation through time. However, there is still a gap on the spatial scales needed to produce carbon offsets comparable with terrestrial or agricultural ecosystems. Here, we used the Coastal Blue Carbon InVEST 3.7.0 model to estimate future net carbon sequestration in blue carbon ecosystems along Australia's Great Barrier Reef (hereafter GBR) catchments, considering different management scenarios (i.e., reintroduction of tidal exchange through the removal of barriers, sea level rise, restoring low lying land) at three different spatial scales: whole GBR coastline, regional (14,000-16,300 ha), and local (335-370 ha) scales. The focus of the restoration (i.e., tidal marshes and/or mangroves) was dependent on data availability for each scenario. Furthermore, we also estimated the monetary value of carbon sequestration under each management scenario and spatial scale assessed in the study. We found that large scale restoration of tidal marshes could potentially sequester an additional ∼800,000 tonnes of CO₂e by 2045 (potentially generating AU$12 million based on the average Australia carbon price), with greater opportunities when sea level rise is accounted for in the modelling. Also, we found that regional and local projects would generate up to 23 tonnes CO₂e ha^-1 by the end of the crediting period. Our results can guide future decisions in the blue carbon market and financing schemes, however, the return on investment is dependent on the carbon price and funding scheme available for project implementation.