On the development of a regional climate change adaptation plan: Integrating model-assisted projections and stakeholders' perceptions

Flooding in semi-unformal urban areas in North Africa: Environmental and psychosocial drivers

Urban flooding is recognized as a nature-driven disaster shaped by inherent factors such as climate, morphology, and hydrology, affecting vulnerability and flood exposure. While these factors play a paramount role, significant psychosocial intricate drivers are acknowledged, though they are challenging for prediction and assessment. This study delves into these drivers in a specific context, aiming to draw conclusions that extend beyond. It undertakes a comprehensive approach, integrating cloud-based Radar flood detection, analysis of flood causation patterns, and geostatistical analysis of a social survey based on cross-synthesis, contingency analysis, and structural equation modeling. In particular, we characterize the case of the coastal city of Tetouan in Morocco, which is representative in its environmental and socioeconomic settings to most cities in North Africa. It unraveled the nuanced interplay of psychosocial, economic, and territorial dynamics influencing flood exposure. The findings reveal how watershed location molds unique environmental exposures, steering nuanced, emotional, and behavioral responses among residents. Gender and education differentials reveal diverse perceptions and awareness of flood risks. Psychosocial intricacies come to the forefront, portraying education, income, and awareness as crucial mediators influencing cognitive and affective responses. Elevated education, increased income, and heightened awareness correlate with heightened perception and coping strategies. Findings reveal that risk perception significantly and differently influences risk acceptance, coping, and aversion through an array of identified key factors influencing coping strategies, mediating elements in flood damage relationships, and underscoring the pivotal role of perception in shaping responses to risk. Moreover, it found that lower risk acceptance leads to higher coping and aversion, and the latter positively affects coping, indicating that acceptance reduces the motivation to avoid the risk and decreases the willingness to adopt coping strategies to reduce the exposure. The outcomes carry critical implications for comprehending individual and collective social behaviors, informing strategies, and mitigating flood risk that apply at a wider context. It accentuates the inadequacy of relying solely on structural engineering for risk management, citing spatial constraints, misinformation, and lapses in prior-risk memory as compounding exposure challenges. This recognition catalyzes action, advocating tailored awareness campaigns, educational initiatives, and capacity-building programs, spotlighting the need for heightened individual profiles to enhance social understanding, engagement, and resilience. We anticipate profound insights, fostering a richer comprehension of urban flooding complexities and informing adaptive strategies on a broader scale.

Local perceptions do not follow rainfall trends: A case study in traditional Marajo island communities (eastern para state, BR)

The great current challenge for the conservation and use of natural resources refers to global climate change, because of its impacts felt in different intensities at global, regional, and local spatial scales. Within the system of environmental protection areas in Brazil, the extractive reserves ensure the sustainable use of natural resources by traditional populations, thus maintaining the cultural and biological aspects of a region. Such populations, being in close management of the surrounding environments, tend to perceive changes in ecological processes that many need for their livelihoods. The use of this perception of local populations in conjunction with academic research evidence has a high potential to allow a whole and systemic view of possible changes in natural phenomena. This study developed an integrated analysis of scientific evidence and local perceptions to understand the variation of precipitation in a community inserted in an extractive reserve in the eastern Amazon. We used 30 years of precipitation data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology - INMET, the Southern Oscillation Index - SOI, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode Index - AMM. Furthermore, we applied a form to measure the population's perception of possible changes in rainfall cycles in the region. The meteorological data indicate that the region of the community has been presenting a rainfall reduction; however, people in the community do not perceive this trend. Although it is public knowledge that the global climate is undergoing changes, a fact noted after the integrating analysis of scientific evidence with local knowledge in Resexmar Soure is that the perceptions of traditional populations often focus on smaller temporal and spatial scale visions.

The Use of Collaborative Practices for Climate Change Adaptation in the Tourism Sector until 2040—A Case Study in the Porto Metropolitan Area (Portugal)

When climate change became a global concern in the 1980s, mitigation was considered the best strategy to address all challenges. For a long time, it was thought possible to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which, according to many experts, brought on an unfit adaptation. There are international agreements designed to significantly reduce CO2 emissions and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, but the policy measures taken so far are insufficient to achieve this goal. In addition, the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the relevance of placing this issue at the core of international policies and the need for bottom-up measures and options. The purpose of this paper is to explore how collaborative planning can contribute to adapting the urban tourism sector to climate change in the Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA), located in the northern region of mainland Portugal. In this investigation, we used mixed methods based on the following: (1) the discussion of urban tourism’s adaptation planning to climate change with undergraduate students; (2) the application of a modified Delphi questionnaire survey, to 47 international researchers and technicians in the first round and 35 international researchers and technicians in the second round, about the predictability of the adaptation measures; and (3) a theoretical-practical workshop aimed to discuss the main action intentions and ways of adaptation in the short and medium term. All empirical data were collected during the year of 2021. This research highlights the need for more detailed information, the weak interaction between stakeholders and the limitation of resources. Our research identifies the main impacts and local vulnerabilities and determines priorities for adaptation and implementation of actions, aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change and maintaining tourism attractiveness in urban areas. In addition, this investigation allowed the definition of a research agenda, which seeks to guide the area of tourism climatology regarding the new challenges imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic.