Increasing temperature during early spring increases winter wheat grain yield by advancing phenology and mitigating leaf senescence

Uneven changes in air and crown temperatures associated with snowpack changes affect the phenology of overwintering cereals

Time series analysis of overwintering cereals in snowy areas has revealed several phenological patterns associated with climate changes in winter. Herein, to investigate the recent effect of climatic variations on overwintering cereals, we investigated the phenology over multiple decades at three snowy region sites with an air temperature (Tair) increase trend of 0.48-1.09 °C/decade. Our findings were as follows: heading trends differed within the same cultivar at different sites; phenology was promoted with increasing temperatures in cooler regions and decreasing snow duration in regions with heavy snow; crown temperature (Tcrown) was a more direct determinant than Tair in phenology estimation model in regions with heavy snow. A thermal gap of more than a few degrees Celsius between Tair and Tcrown, owing to the insulation effect of snowpack, affected the phenology of overwintering cereals. A shorter snow cover period promoted phenology in locations with temperatures >0 °C. Subsequently, we found that when the thermal gap was >0 °C of the growing temperature range, Tcrown directly helped determine the phenology of overwintering cereals, and irrespective of the warming trend, the periodic inflow of cold air into the northern mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and associated snow cover changes dominated Tcrown, resulting in annual phenological anomalies with a range of fluctuations of approximately 1 month. The trend of increasing Tair during spring in northern Japan is consistent with the global trend, with a pronounced trend of advancing phenology reaching >4 days/decade in a typical cooler location experiencing snowmelt in March.

Global wheat planting suitability under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets

The potential distribution of crops will be impacted by climate change, but there is limited research on potential wheat distributions under specific global warming targets. This study employed the Maxent model to predict the potential distribution of wheat under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets based on data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) multimodel ensemble, and the effect of global warming on wheat planting suitability was analyzed. Our results indicated global warming would significantly change wheat planting suitability. Over half of the areas experienced changes in wheat planting suitability under two warming targets, and the effect became more pronounced with increasing temperatures. Additionally, global warming might promote wheat planting in more regions. The area with an increase in wheat planting suitability was observed to be 9% higher than those experiencing a decrease on average. Moreover, global warming could exacerbate the disparity between global wheat supply and demand in countries/regions. Traditional wheat-producing countries/regions are poised to benefit from the warming effects of climate change, while less developed and wheat import-dependent countries/regions may face greater challenges in achieving wheat self-sufficiency. To address this potential challenge, the promotion and inter-regional exchange of agronomic technologies, and the development of more rational trade standards are urgently needed. Since socioeconomic factors have a significant impact on wheat cultivation, further investigation is required to determine how the wheat planting distribution may change in the future under the combined impact of climate change, supply-demand relationship, and policy.

Future climate change impacts on wheat grain yield and protein in the North China Region

The threat of global climate change on wheat production may be underestimated by the limited capacity of many crop models to predict grain quality and protein composition. This study aimed to integrate a wheat quality module of protein components into the CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model to investigate the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield and protein quality in the North China Region (NCR) using five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 under three shared socioeconomic pathways. The CERES-Wheat model with a quality module was developed and calibrated and validated using data from several sites in the NCR. The results of the calibration and validation showed that the modified CERES-Wheat model can accurately predict grain yield, protein content and its components in field experiments. Compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), the annual mean temperature and annual cumulative precipitation increased in the NCR in the 2030's, 2050's and 2080's. The radiation was higher under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, and lower under the SSP370 scenario compared to the baseline period. The anthesis and maturity date occurred earlier under the three future scenarios. The average grain yield increased by 13.3-30.9 % under three future scenarios. However, the regional average grain protein content of winter wheat in the future decreased by 2.0 %- 3.5 %. The reduction in wheat grain protein at the regional was less pronounced under SSP370 than that under SSP126 and SSP585. The structural protein content of winter wheat decreased under future climate conditions compared with the baseline period, but the storage protein content showed the opposite tendency. The model provided a useful tool to study the effects of future climate on grain quality and protein composition. These findings are important for developing agricultural practices and strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production and wheat quality in the future.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of the bacterial community under experimental warming in field-grown wheat

Climate change may lead to adverse effects on agricultural crops, plant microbiomes have the potential to help hosts counteract these effects. While plant-microbe interactions are known to be sensitive to temperature, how warming affects the community composition and functioning of plant microbiomes in most agricultural crops is still unclear. Here, we utilized a 10-year field experiment to investigate the effects of warming on root zone carbon availability, microbial activity and community composition at spatial (root, rhizosphere and bulk soil) and temporal (tillering, jointing and ripening stages of plants) scales in field-grown wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The dissolved organic carbon and microbial activity in the rhizosphere were increased by soil warming and varied considerably across wheat growth stages. Warming exerted stronger effects on the microbial community composition in the root and rhizosphere samples than in the bulk soil. Microbial community composition, particularly the phyla Actinobacteria and Firmicutes, shifted considerably in response to warming. Interestingly, the abundance of a number of known copiotrophic taxa, such as Pseudomonas and Bacillus, and genera in Actinomycetales increased in the roots and rhizosphere under warming and the increase in these taxa implies that they may play a role in increasing the resilience of plants to warming. Taken together, we demonstrated that soil warming along with root proximity and plant growth status drives changes in the microbial community composition and function in the wheat root zone.

Mechanisms of lead uptake and accumulation in wheat grains based on atmospheric deposition-soil sources

Lead (Pb) accumulation in wheat grains depends on two aspects: i) Pb uptake by the roots and shoots, and ii) the translocation of organ Pb into the grain. However, the underlying mechanism of the uptake and transport of Pb in wheat remains unclear. This study explored this mechanism by establishing field leaf-cutting comparison treatments. Interestingly, as the organ with the highest Pb concentration, only 20.40 % of the root's relative contribution to grain Pb. The relative contributions of the spike, flag leaf, second leaf, and third leaf to grain Pb were 33.13 %, 23.57 %, 13.21 %, and 9.69 %, respectively, which was opposite to their Pb concentration distribution trends. According to Pb isotope analysis, it was found leaf-cutting treatments reduced the proportion of atmospheric Pb in grain, and grain Pb predominantly comes from atmospheric deposition (79.60 %). Furthermore, from the bottom to the top, the concentration of Pb in internodes decreased gradually, and the proportions of Pb originating from soil in the nodes also decreased, revealing that wheat nodes hindered the translocation of Pb from roots and leaves to the grain. Therefore, the hindering effect of nodes on the migration of soil Pb in wheat resulted in atmospheric Pb having a more convenient pathway to the grain than soil Pb, and further leading grain Pb accumulation primarily depended on the contribution of the flag leaf and spike.

The newly absorbed atmospheric lead by wheat spike during filling stage is the primary reason for grain lead pollution

Wheat spikes could directly absorb lead (Pb) from atmospheric depositions. However, the mechanism by which the spikes contribute to Pb accumulation in the grain remains unclear. To investigate this mechanism, a field experiment was conducted using three comparative spikes shading treatments: 1) exposed to atmospheric deposition and light (CK), 2) non-exposed to atmospheric deposition and light (T1), and 3) non-exposed to atmospheric deposition but light-transmitting (T2). Spikes shading treatments reduced the average rate and peak value of the accumulation of Pb in grains, which significantly decreased the grain Pb concentration by 57.44 % and 50.26 % in T1 and T2 treatments, respectively. Moreover, Pb isotopic analysis shows that the Pb in spike and grain was mainly from atmospheric deposition, and the percentage of the grain Pb originated from atmospheric Pb decreased from 85.98 % in CK to 72.87 % and 79.59 % in T1 and T2, respectively. In addition, the spikes, rather than the leaves/roots, were the largest wheat tissue source of Pb in grains, and the relative contribution of spikes to grain Pb accumulation increased to 65.57 % at the maturity stage, of which the stored Pb re-translocation of spikes and the newly absorbed Pb by spikes during the filling stage contributed 13.37 % and 52.20 % to the grain Pb, respectively. Thus, the contribution of the spike to the grain Pb was mainly from the newly absorbed Pb from the atmospheric deposition during the grain filling phase, and grain filling phase is the key stage for the absorption of Pb by the grain. In brief, the newly absorbed atmospheric Pb by wheat spike during filling stage is the primary cause of grain Pb contamination, which provided a new insight for effective control of wheat Pb pollution.

Evaluating the contributions of leaf organ to wheat grain cadmium at the filling stage

Cadmium (Cd) is an element of global concern in agricultural fields owing to its high bioavailability and its risk to human health via the consumption of wheat products. However, whether wheat leaves can directly absorb atmospheric Cd and transport them to the grains along with the contribution of leaves to Cd accumulation in the grains is not clear. We evaluated this mechanism through three comparative treatments: 1) exposure to atmospheric deposition (CK), 2) no exposure to atmospheric deposition (T1), and 3) exposure to atmospheric deposition with leaf cutting (T2). The Cd accumulation rate of grains in the CK, T1, and T2 groups all showed an increasing trend, followed by a decreasing trend, which was consistent with the trend of filling rate. Moreover, the critical period for leaf Cd accumulation in the grains was the early filling period, and its contribution decreased gradually as filling progressed. The contribution of the leaves to grain Cd reached 31.73% at maturity, with the reactivation of stored Cd in leaves pre-flowering and the newly absorbed atmospheric Cd by leaves post-flowering contributing 19.76% and 11.97% to Cd accumulation in grains, respectively, at maturity. Sub-microstructure analysis of the leaves further confirmed that the direct Cd absorption by leaves from atmospheric deposition through stomata contributed to Cd accumulation in wheat grains. Therefore, controlling the sources of atmospheric Cd pollution and reducing Cd absorption by leaves during grain filling can effectively control Cd pollution of wheat grains. This study provides significant insights on how to more effectively control the Cd content of edible part of wheat and ensure food security.