Mapping and assessment of future changes in the coastal and marine ecosystem services supply in Lithuania

Mapping ecosystem services in protected areas. A systematic review

Protected areas (PAs) supply ecosystem services (ES) essential for human wellbeing. Mapping is a critical exercise that allows an understanding of the spatial distribution of the different ES in PAs. This work aims to conduct a systematic literature review on mapping ES in PAs. In order to carry out this systematic review, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses method was applied. The results showed an increase in the number of works between 2012 and 2023, and they were especially conducted in Europe and Asia and less in North America, South America, and Oceania. Most studies were developed in terrestrial areas, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature classified them into types II and IV. Most of the works followed the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification and were mainly focused on the supply dimension. Regulating and maintenance and cultural ES were the most mapped dimensions in PAs. The most frequent provisioning ES mapped in PAs were Animals reared for nutritional purposes and Cultivated terrestrial plants grown for nutritional purposes. In regulating and maintenance, Maintaining nursery populations and habitats and Regulation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans were the most analysed. For cultural ES, Characteristics of living systems that enable activities promoting health, recuperation, or enjoyment through active or immersive interactions and Characteristics of living systems that enable aesthetic experiences were the most mapped ES in PAs. Most works followed a quantitative approach, although the number of qualitative studies is high. Finally, most of the works needed to be validated, which may hamper the credibility of mapping ES in PAs. Overall, this systematic review contributed to a global picture of studies distribution, the areas where they are needed, and the most popular dimensions and sections as the methodologies were applied.

The race for space: Modelling the landward migration of coastal wetlands under sea level rise at regional scale

Globally, sea-level rise (SLR) is a major environmental challenge for coastal ecosystems. Of particular concern are the impacts on intertidal wetlands, the loss of which would have detrimental consequences for both human and ecological communities. On the south-east Australian coast, case studies suggest that the future of intertidal wetlands will greatly depend on landward migration as surface accretion may not keep up with the predicted SLR in many estuaries. However, due to differences in geomorphological settings and land-use, estuaries vary in their capacity to accommodate lateral migration. Regional scale assessment of the lateral accommodation space is therefore critical for pre-emptive planning to conserve these valuable coastal ecosystems. In this study, we analysed wetland lateral accommodation space distribution within 110 estuaries under three SLR scenarios and three land management options on the New South Wales coast, south-east Australia. From the wetland distribution predictions, we calculated and mapped the lateral accommodation space in each estuary associated with each sea level and land use scenario. We further investigated the relationships between wetland migration capacity, intertidal hypsometry represented by elevation skewness, and estuary type within a Bayesian analysis framework. Our results showed that while a few large riverine estuaries dominated the state's total accommodation space, saline wetlands were at risk of disappearing from most intermittently closed-open estuaries if they cannot vertically accrete at the pace of SLR. These distinct responses to SLR are due to different elevation distributions. Furthermore, our assessment of land use adaptation options suggested that the promotion of landward migration without impairing other important ecosystems could be achieved by making low intensity land uses available within several riverine estuaries and barrier (open entrance) estuaries. Through identifying migration opportunities and barriers, the findings of the study could support regional scale adaptation strategies to ensure the sustainability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.