Maternal acute thermophysiological stress and stillbirth in Western Australia, 2000-2015: A space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis

Ambient temperature and the risk of childhood epilepsy hospitalizations: Potentially neglected risk of temperature extremes and modifying effects of air pollution

PURPOSE

Extreme temperatures and air pollution are increasingly important risk factors for human health in the background of climate change, with limited evidence available for neurological disorders. This study intended to investigate the short-term effects of extreme temperatures on childhood epilepsy and explore the potential modifying effect of air pollution.

METHODS

Daily childhood epilepsy hospitalization, meteorological and air pollution data were collected from 10 cities in Anhui Province of China during 2016-2018. We firstly employed a space-time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression model to fit the short-term relationship between temperature and epilepsy. Then, we conducted stratified analyses by the level of air pollution and individual characteristics.

RESULTS

Both extreme heat and extreme cold increased the risk of hospitalization for childhood epilepsy. The effect of extreme heat [97.5th vs. minimum hospitalization temperature (MHT)] on hospitalization was acute and emerged at lag0 [OR: 1.229 (95 %CI: 1.035 to 1.459)], while the effect of extreme cold (2.5th vs. MHT) was delayed and appeared at lag5 [OR: 1.098 (95 %CI: 1.043 to 1.156)]. We also found children aged 6-18 years were more susceptible to extreme cold than children aged 0-5 years. Besides, extreme heat and cold effects differed by the level of air pollutants.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that extreme temperatures might be the novel but currently neglected risk factor for childhood epilepsy, and air pollution could further amplify the adverse effect of temperature.

Maternal exposure to bioclimatic stress and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in Western Australia: identifying potential critical windows of susceptibility

The anthropogenic climate change may impact pregnancy outcomes. Rather than ambient temperature, we aimed to use a composite bioclimatic metric (Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) to identify critical susceptible windows for the associations between bioclimatic exposure and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs) risk. Daily UTCI exposure from 12 weeks of preconception through pregnancy was linked to 415,091 singleton pregnancies between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2015 in Western Australia. Adjusted weekly-specific and cumulative odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of gestational hypertension and preeclampsia were estimated with distributed lag non-linear and standard non-linear logistic regressions. Exposures from early pregnancy to week 30 were associated with greater odds of HDPs with critical susceptible windows, particularly elevated at the 1st (10.2 °C) and 99th (26.0 °C) exposure centiles as compared to the median (14.2 °C). The most elevated ORs were 1.07 (95% CI 1.06, 1.08) in weeks 8-18 for gestational hypertension and 1.10 (95% CI 1.08, 1.11) in weeks 11-16 for preeclampsia for the 99th exposure centile. Cumulative exposures associated with HDPs with relatively higher but less precise ORs. The effects of high exposure to HDPs indicated sociodemographic inequalities. The identified critical periods and subpopulations could benefit from climate-related interventions.

An expert review of environmental heat exposure and stillbirth in the face of climate change: Clinical implications and priority issues

Exposure to extreme heat in pregnancy increases the risk of stillbirth. Progress in reducing stillbirth rates has stalled, and populations are increasingly exposed to high temperatures and climate events that may further undermine health strategies. This narrative review summarises the current clinical and epidemiological evidence of the impact of maternal heat exposure on stillbirth risk. Out of 20 studies, 19 found an association between heat and stillbirth risk. Recent studies based in low- to middle-income countries and tropical settings add to the existing literature to demonstrate that all populations are at risk. Additionally, both short-term heat exposure and whole-pregnancy heat exposure increase the risk of stillbirth. A definitive threshold of effect has not been identified, as most studies define exposure as above the 90th centile of the usual temperature for that population. Therefore, the association between heat and stillbirth has been found with exposures from as low as >12.64°C up to >46.4°C. The pathophysiological pathways by which maternal heat exposure may lead to stillbirth, based on human and animal studies, include both placental and embryonic or fetal impacts. Although evidence gaps remain and further research is needed to characterise these mechanistic pathways in more detail, preliminary evidence suggests epigenetic changes, alteration in imprinted genes, congenital abnormalities, reduction in placental blood flow, size and function all play a part. Finally, we explore this topic from a public health perspective; we discuss and evaluate the current public health guidance on minimising the risk of extreme heat in the community. There is limited pregnancy-specific guidance within heatwave planning, and no evidence-based interventions have been established to prevent poor pregnancy outcomes. We highlight priority research questions to move forward in the field and specifically note the urgent need for evidence-based interventions that are sustainable.

Modeling the lagged impacts of hourly weather and speed variation factors on the segment crash risk of rural interstate freeways: Applying a space-time-stratified case-crossover design

In the realm of traditional roadway crash studies, cross-sectional modeling methods have been commonly employed to investigate the intricate relationship between the crash risk of roadway segments and variables including roadway geometrics, weather conditions, and speed distribution. However, these methodologies assume that the explanatory variables and target variable are only associated within the same time period. Although this assumption is well-founded for static factors like roadway geometrics, it proves inadequate when dealing with highly time-varying variables related to weather conditions and speed variation. Recent investigations have unveiled that these time-varying variables may exhibit lagged impacts on segment crash risk, necessitating the adoption of more comprehensive time-series modeling methods. This study employs two interpretable statistical methods, namely the distributed lag model (DLM) and the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), to elucidate meaningful and interpretable patterns of the lagged impacts of weather and speed variation factors on segment crash risk. Empirical evidence based on crash data collected from rural interstate freeways in the state of Texas demonstrates coherent and interpretable lagged impact patterns of these variables. This study's results serve as strong support for the existence of lagged impacts on roadway segment-level crash risk, emphasizing the need for considering time-series effects in future crash modeling research. Furthermore, these findings could offer practical implications for the design of real-time crash warning systems and the effective implementation of variable speed limits to enhance road safety.

Heat stress alters the ovarian proteome in prepubertal gilts

Heat stress (HS) occurs when exogenous and metabolic heat accumulation exceeds heat dissipation; a thermal imbalance that compromises female reproduction. This study investigated the hypothesis that HS alters the ovarian proteome and negatively impacts proteins engaged with insulin signaling, inflammation, and ovarian function. Prepubertal gilts (n = 19) were assigned to one of three environmental groups: thermal neutral with ad libitum feed intake (TN; n = 6), thermal neutral pair-fed (PF; n = 6), or HS (n = 7). For 7 d, HS gilts were exposed to 12-h cyclic temperatures of 35.0 ± 0.2 °C and 32.2 ± 0.1 °C, while TN and PF gilts were housed at 21.0 ± 0.1 °C. Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was performed on ovarian protein homogenates. Relative to TN gilts, 178 proteins were altered (P ≤ 0.05, log2foldchange ≥ 1) by HS, with 76 increased and 102 decreased. STRING gene ontology classified and identified 45 biological processes including those associated with chaperone protein refolding, cytoplasmic translational initiation, and immune activation; with a protein-protein interaction web network of 158 nodes and 563 edges connected based on protein function (FDR ≤ 0.05). Relative to PF, HS altered 330 proteins (P ≤ 0.05, log2foldchange ≥ 1), with 151 increased and 179 decreased. Fifty-seven biological pathways associated with protein function and assembly, RNA processing, and metabolic processes were identified, with a protein-protein interaction network of 303 nodes and 1,606 edges. Comparing HS with both the TN and PF treatments, 72 ovarian proteins were consistently altered by HS with 68 nodes and 104 edges, with biological pathways associated with translation and gene expression. This indicates that HS alters the ovarian proteome and multiple biological pathways and systems in prepubertal gilts; changes that potentially contribute to female infertility.

Maternal exposure to heat and its association with miscarriage in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

We sought to improve the current understanding of how climate change impacts women's reproductive health in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the relationship between maternal heat exposure and miscarriage (pregnancy ending before 20 weeks gestation) in a South African setting.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

METHODS

Our study involved data for pregnancies collected via a health and demographic surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa between 2012 and 2016. Data from the South African Weather Service were used to compute maternal exposure to heat during the following time windows for each pregnancy: during the month preceding conception (T1) and during the week preceding the study outcome (either a miscarriage or no miscarriage, T2). Heat exposure was operationalized as a continuous variable and defined as the number of days that a mother was exposed to a mean daily temperature of > 26.6°C (A "hot day," equivalent to a mean daily temperature of > 80°F) during T1 or T2. Binary logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between maternal heat exposure and miscarriage.

RESULTS

A total of 105/3477 pregnancies included in our analysis ended in miscarriage (3.0%). Each additional hot day during T1 was associated with a 26% higher odds of miscarriage (odds ratio: 1.26; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-1.38). No significant associations were observed between maternal heat exposure during T2 and the odds of miscarriage (odds ratio: 0.94, 95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.20). The relationship between maternal heat exposure during T1 and the odds of miscarriage was J-shaped.

CONCLUSION

There is a clear relationship between maternal heat exposure during the month preceding conception and miscarriage in our sub-Saharan African setting. Given the lack of feasible strategies to reduce pregnancy loss associated with prevailing high temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa, progressive climate change will likely exacerbate existing challenges for women's reproductive health in this region.

Seasonal patterns in newborns' health: Quantifying the roles of climate, communicable disease, economic and social factors

Poor health at birth can have long-term consequences for children's development. This paper analyses an important factor associated with health at birth: the time of year that the baby is born, and hence seasonal risks they were exposed to in utero. There are multiple potential explanations for seasonality in newborns' health. Most previous research has examined these in isolation. We therefore do not know which explanations are most important - and hence which policy interventions would most effectively reduce the resulting early-life inequalities. In this paper, I use administrative data to estimate and compare the magnitudes of several seasonal risks, seeking to identify the most important drivers of seasonality in the Northern Territory of Australia, a large territory spanning tropical and arid climates and where newborn health varies dramatically with the seasons. I find that the most important explanations are heat exposure and disease prevalence. Seasonality in food prices and road accessibility have smaller effects on some outcomes. Seasonal fertility patterns, rainfall and humidity do not have statistically significant effects. I conclude that interventions that protect pregnant women from seasonal disease and heat exposure would likely improve newborn health in the Northern Territory, with potential long-term benefits for child development. It is likely that similar impacts would apply in other locations with tropical and arid climates, and that, without action, climate change will accentuate these risks.

Association between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality in the subtropics

Hazardous thermal conditions resulting from climate change may play a role in cardiovascular disease development. We chose the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as the exposure metric to evaluate the relationship between thermal conditions and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen, China. We applied quasi-Poisson regression non-linear distributed lag models to evaluate the exposure-response associations. The findings suggest that cardiovascular mortality risks were significantly increased under heat and cold stress, and the adverse effects of cold stress were stronger than heat stress. Referencing the 50th percentile of UTCI (25.4°C), the cumulative risk of cardiovascular mortality was 75% (RRlag0-21 =1.75, 95%CI: 1.32, 2.32) higher in the 1st percentile (3.5°C), and 40% (RRlag0-21=1.40, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.80) higher in the 99th percentile (34.1°C). We observed that individuals older than 65 years were more vulnerable to both cold and heat stress, and females were identified as more susceptible to heat stress than males. Moreover, increased mortality risks of hypertensive disease and cerebrovascular disease were observed under cold stress, while heat stress was related to higher risks of mortality for hypertensive disease and ischemic heart disease. We also observed a stronger relationship between cold stress and ischemic heart disease mortality during the cold season, as well as a significant impact of heat stress on cerebrovascular disease mortality in the warm season when compared to the analysis of the entire year. These results confirm the significant relationship between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality, with age and sex as potential effect modifiers of this association. Providing affordable air conditioning equipment, increasing the amount of vegetation, and establishing comprehensive early warning systems that take human thermoregulation into account could all help to safeguard the well-being of the public, particularly vulnerable populations, in the event of future extreme weather.

Critical Windows of Maternal Exposure to Biothermal Stress and Birth Weight for Gestational Age in Western Australia

BACKGROUND

There is limited and inconsistent evidence on the risk of ambient temperature on small for gestational age (SGA) and there are no known related studies for large for gestational age (LGA). In addition, previous studies used temperature rather than a biothermal metric.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to examine the associations and critical susceptible windows of maternal exposure to a biothermal metric [Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)] and the hazards of SGA and LGA.

METHODS

We linked 385,337 singleton term births between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2015 in Western Australia to daily spatiotemporal UTCI. Distributed lag nonlinear models with Cox regression and multiple models were used to investigate maternal exposure to UTCI from 12 weeks preconception to birth and the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of SGA and LGA.

RESULTS

Relative to the median exposure, weekly and monthly specific exposures showed potential critical windows of susceptibility for SGA and LGA at extreme exposures, especially during late gestational periods. Monthly exposure showed strong positive associations from the 6th to the 10th gestational months with the highest hazard of 13% for SGA (HR = 1.13 ; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.14) and 7% for LGA (HR = 1.07 ; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.11) at the 10th month for the 1st UTCI centile. Entire pregnancy exposures showed the strongest hazards of 11% for SGA (HR = 1.11 ; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.18) and 3% for LGA (HR = 1.03 ; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.11) at the 99th UTCI centile. By trimesters, the highest hazards were found during the second and first trimesters for SGA and LGA, respectively, at the 99th UTCI centile. Based on estimated interaction effects, male births, mothers who were non-Caucasian, smokers, ≥ 35 years of age, and rural residents were most vulnerable.

CONCLUSIONS

Both weekly and monthly specific extreme biothermal stress exposures showed potential critical susceptible windows of SGA and LGA during late gestational periods with disproportionate sociodemographic vulnerabilities. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12660.

Bias in the association between advanced maternal age and stillbirth using left truncated data

Restriction to analysis of births that survive past a specified gestational age (typically 20 weeks gestation) leads to biased exposure-outcome associations. This bias occurs when the cause of restriction (early pregnancy loss) is influenced by both the exposure and unmeasured factors that also affect the outcome. The aim of this study is to estimate the magnitude of bias resulting from left truncated data in the association between advanced maternal age and stillbirth. We simulated data for the causal pathway under a collider-stratification mechanism. Simulation parameters were based on an observed birth cohort from Western Australia and a range of plausible values for the prevalence of early pregnancy loss, unmeasured factor U and the odds ratios for the selection effects. Selection effects included the effects of maternal age on early pregnancy loss, U on early pregnancy loss, and U on stillbirth. We compared the simulation scenarios to the observed birth cohort that was truncated to pregnancies that survived beyond 20 gestational weeks. We found evidence of marginal downward bias, which was most prominent for women aged 40 + years. Overall, we conclude that the magnitude of bias due to left truncation is minimal in the association between advanced maternal age and stillbirth.