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Mortier T, Truszkowski J, Norman M, Boner M, Buliga B, Chater C, Jennings H, Saunders J, Sibley R, Antonelli A, Waegeman W, Deklerck V. A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion. NATURE PLANTS 2024; 10:390-401. [PMID: 38467801 PMCID: PMC10954544 DOI: 10.1038/s41477-024-01648-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 03/13/2024]
Abstract
Scientific testing including stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) and trace element analysis (TEA) is critical for establishing plant origin, tackling deforestation and enforcing economic sanctions. Yet methods combining SIRA and TEA into robust models for origin verification and determination are lacking. Here we report a (1) large Eastern European timber reference database (Betula, Fagus, Pinus, Quercus) tailored to sanctioned products following the Ukraine invasion; (2) statistical test to verify samples against a claimed origin; (3) probabilistic model of SIRA, TEA and genus distribution data, using Gaussian processes, to determine timber harvest location. Our verification method rejects 40-60% of simulated false claims, depending on the spatial scale of the claim, and maintains a low probability of rejecting correct origin claims. Our determination method predicts harvest location within 180 to 230 km of true location. Our results showcase the power of combining data types with probabilistic modelling to identify and scrutinize timber harvest location claims.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Mortier
- World Forest ID, Washington, DC, USA
- Department Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Jakub Truszkowski
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | | | - Bogdan Buliga
- Preferred by Nature, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
- University Stefan cel Mare Suceava, Suceava, Romania
| | - Caspar Chater
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, UK
- Plants, Photosynthesis, and Soil, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | | | | | | | - Alexandre Antonelli
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, UK
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Willem Waegeman
- Department Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Victor Deklerck
- World Forest ID, Washington, DC, USA.
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, UK.
- Meise Botanic Garden, Meise, Belgium.
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Deklerck. Timber origin verification using mass spectrometry: challenges, opportunities, and way forward. FORENSIC SCIENCE INTERNATIONAL: ANIMALS AND ENVIRONMENTS 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.fsiae.2022.100057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
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