Predictors of early recurrent seizure after first seizure presentation to an emergency service: A retrospective cohort study

Prognosis of adults and children following a first unprovoked seizure

BACKGROUND

Epilepsy is clinically defined as two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures more than 24 hours apart. Given that, a diagnosis of epilepsy can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality, it is imperative that clinicians (and people with seizures and their relatives) have access to accurate and reliable prognostic estimates, to guide clinical practice on the risks of developing further unprovoked seizures (and by definition, a diagnosis of epilepsy) following single unprovoked epileptic seizure.

OBJECTIVES

1. To provide an accurate estimate of the proportion of individuals going on to have further unprovoked seizures at subsequent time points following a single unprovoked epileptic seizure (or cluster of epileptic seizures within a 24-hour period, or a first episode of status epilepticus), of any seizure type (overall prognosis). 2. To evaluate the mortality rate following a first unprovoked epileptic seizure.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases on 19 September 2019 and again on 30 March 2021, with no language restrictions. The Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March 29, 2021), SCOPUS (1823 onwards), ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). CRS Web includes randomized or quasi-randomized, controlled trials from PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the Specialized Registers of Cochrane Review Groups including Epilepsy. In MEDLINE (Ovid) the coverage end date always lags a few days behind the search date.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies, both retrospective and prospective, of all age groups (except those in the neonatal period (< 1 month of age)), of people with a single unprovoked seizure, followed up for a minimum of six months, with no upper limit of follow-up, with the study end point being seizure recurrence, death, or loss to follow-up. To be included, studies must have included at least 30 participants. We excluded studies that involved people with seizures that occur as a result of an acute precipitant or provoking factor, or in close temporal proximity to an acute neurological insult, since these are not considered epileptic in aetiology (acute symptomatic seizures). We also excluded people with situational seizures, such as febrile convulsions.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors conducted the initial screening of titles and abstracts identified through the electronic searches, and removed non-relevant articles. We obtained the full-text articles of all remaining potentially relevant studies, or those whose relevance could not be determined from the abstract alone and two authors independently assessed for eligibility. All disagreements were resolved through discussion with no need to defer to a third review author. We extracted data from included studies using a data extraction form based on the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematicreviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS). Two review authors then appraised the included studies, using a standardised approach based on the quality in prognostic studies (QUIPS) tool, which was adapted for overall prognosis (seizure recurrence). We conducted a meta-analysis using Review Manager 2014, with a random-effects generic inverse variance meta-analysis model, which accounted for any between-study heterogeneity in the prognostic effect. We then summarised the meta-analysis by the pooled estimate (the average prognostic factor effect), its 95% confidence interval (CI), the estimates of I² and Tau² (heterogeneity), and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in a single population at three various time points, 6 months, 12 months and 24 months. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the ages of the cohorts included; studies involving all ages, studies that recruited adult only and those that were purely paediatric.

MAIN RESULTS

Fifty-eight studies (involving 54 cohorts), with a total of 12,160 participants (median 147, range 31 to 1443), met the inclusion criteria for the review. Of the 58 studies, 26 studies were paediatric studies, 16 were adult and the remaining 16 studies were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. Most included studies had a cohort study design with two case-control studies and one nested case-control study. Thirty-two studies (29 cohorts) reported a prospective longitudinal design whilst 15 studies had a retrospective design whilst the remaining studies were randomised controlled trials. Nine of the studies included presented mortality data following a first unprovoked seizure. For a mortality study to be included, a proportional mortality ratio (PMR) or a standardised mortality ratio (SMR) had to be given at a specific time point following a first unprovoked seizure. To be included in the meta-analysis a study had to present clear seizure recurrence data at 6 months, 12 months or 24 months. Forty-six studies were included in the meta-analysis, of which 23 were paediatric, 13 were adult, and 10 were a combination of paediatric and adult populations. A meta-analysis was performed at three time points; six months, one year and two years for all ages combined, paediatric and adult studies, respectively. We found an estimated overall seizure recurrence of all included studies at six months of 27% (95% CI 24% to 31%), 36% (95% CI 33% to 40%) at one year and 43% (95% CI 37% to 44%) at two years, with slightly lower estimates for adult subgroup analysis and slightly higher estimates for paediatric subgroup analysis. It was not possible to provide a summary estimate of the risk of seizure recurrence beyond these time points as most of the included studies were of short follow-up and too few studies presented recurrence rates at a single time point beyond two years. The evidence presented was found to be of moderate certainty.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the limitations of the data (moderate-certainty of evidence), mainly relating to clinical and methodological heterogeneity we have provided summary estimates for the likely risk of seizure recurrence at six months, one year and two years for both children and adults. This provides information that is likely to be useful for the clinician counselling patients (or their parents) on the probable risk of further seizures in the short-term whilst acknowledging the paucity of long-term recurrence data, particularly beyond 10 years.

The importance of drug titration in the management of patients with epilepsy

The variable response to antiseizure medication (ASM) treatment and the numerous drug- and patient-related factors that must be considered when initiating therapy make drug titration to an optimal and tolerable dose an essential component in the pharmacologic treatment of patients with epilepsy. When initiating a new ASM, a "start low, go slow" titration approach is generally recommended and has been shown to reduce the risk of severe idiosyncratic reactions with certain medications and improve tolerability with regard to many frequently occurring central nervous system-related adverse effects (e.g., somnolence, dizziness). Many patients with epilepsy will require medication changes due to lack of efficacy or intolerability of the initial regimen. When this occurs, patients may be switched from one monotherapy to another or receive adjunctive therapy. When transitioning a patient from one ASM to another (referred to as monotherapy conversion or transitional polytherapy), there are several strategies for tapering the baseline ASM depending on the clinical scenario. Regardless of the particular strategy, the goal should be to discontinue the baseline ASM in order to prevent increased toxicity due to drug load. When adding on ASM therapy, flexible titration of the new ASM and adjustment of concomitant ASMs to achieve disease control with the lowest possible drug load (lowest numbers and lowest doses) may help improve tolerability of the add-on therapy. Communication with patients during the initiation of a new therapy may help patients adhere to the titration schedule, allowing them to reach their optimal maintenance dose.

Association between benzodiazepine outpatient treatment and risk of early seizure recurrence in emergency patients with seizure: A multicenter retrospective study

INTRODUCTION

Seizures are one of the most common neurological reasons for emergency department (ED) visits. The benefit of ED-initiated, short-course outpatient benzodiazepine (BZD) treatment to prevent early recurrent seizure is unknown. This study assesses the risk of early seizure recurrence in patients who were or were not started with outpatient BZD in the ED.

METHODS

This was a multicenter retrospective study conducted in eight French EDs between January 1 and December 31, 2019. All patients admitted for seizure were retrospectively screened and those discharged home from the ED were included. Patients with a history of chronic alcohol intoxication or chronic BZD therapy were excluded. Baseline characteristics, type of seizure, and 30-day outcome were retrospectively collected from the electronic health records. The primary endpoint was a return visit for seizure recurrence within 30 days. Independent factors associated with a seizure recurrence were identified using a multivariable binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 2,218 patients were included and 1,820 were analyzed. The median age was 39 years and 60% were men. Among them 82% of patients had a generalized tonic-clonic seizure and 47% of seizures were idiopathic. BZD treatment was started in 773 (42%) patients. A total of 154 (8%) patients had an early recurrence at 30 days: 68 (9%) in patients who were treated with BZD versus 86 (8%) in patients who were not (odds ratio [OR] = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.71 to 1.43). In multivariable analysis, two factors were independently associated with the primary endpoint: chronic epileptic treatment (adjusted OR = 2.58, 95% CI = 1.55 to 4.37) and having had a focal seizure (adjusted OR = 2.16, 95% CI = 1.56 to 4.37).

CONCLUSION

BZD therapy was started in 42% of patients who were discharged home after ED visit for a seizure. This treatment was not an independent factor associated with the risk of return visit for seizure recurrence at 30 days.