Building an interdisciplinary framework to advance conceptual and technical aspects of population-environment research focused on women's and children's health

The association between timing in pregnancy of drought and excess rainfall, infant sex, and birthweight: Evidence from Nepal

Background

Past research on the impact of climatic events, such as drought, on birth outcomes has primarily been focused in Africa, with less research in South Asia, including Nepal. Existing evidence has generally found that drought impacts birthweight and infant sex, with differences by trimester. Additionally, less research has looked at the impact of excess rain on birth outcomes or focused on the impact of rainfall extremes in the preconception period. Using data from a large demographic surveillance system in Nepal, combined with a novel measure of drought/excess rainfall, we explore the impact of these on birthweight by time in pregnancy.

Methods

Using survey data from the 2016 to 2019 Chitwan Valley Study in rural Nepal combined with data from Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station, we explored the association between excess rainfall and drought and birthweight, looking at exposure in the preconception period, and by trimester of pregnancy. We also explore the impact of excess rainfall and drought on infant sex and delivery with a skilled birth attendant. We used multilevel regressions and explored for effect modification by maternal age.

Results

Drought in the first trimester is associated with lower birthweight (β = -82.9 g; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 164.7, -1.2) and drought in the preconception period with a high likelihood of having a male (odds ratio [OR] = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.01, 2.01). Excess rainfall in the first trimester is associated with high birthweight (β = 111.6 g; 95% CI = 20.5, 202.7) and higher odds of having a male (OR = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.02, 2.16), and in the third trimester with higher odds of low birth weight (OR = 2.50; 95% CI = 1.40, 4.45).

Conclusions

Increasing rainfall extremes will likely impact birth outcomes and could have implications for sex ratios at birth.

Human fertility after a disaster: a systematic literature review

Fertility is a key demographic parameter influenced by disaster. With the growing risk of disasters, interest in the fertility response to a disaster is increasing among the public, policy makers and researchers alike. However, a systematic literature review on how disaster affects live birth counts does not yet exist. We reviewed 50 studies retrieved from a systematic search based on a pre-registered protocol. We found an overall negative impact of disasters on fertility. If any, increases in fertility were mostly linked with weather-related physical disasters. We also identified 13 distinct mechanisms which researchers have considered as underlying the fertility effects of disaster. By contrast to the common belief that disasters are more likely to increase fertility in contexts with already high fertility, we found little evidence to suggest that the total fertility rate of the studied populations was an important predictor of the direction, timing or size of fertility impacts. While this may be because no relationship exists, it may also be due to biases we observed in the literature towards studying high-income countries or high-cost disasters. We summarize the methodological limitations identified from the reviewed studies into six practical recommendations for future research. Our findings inform both the theories behind the fertility effects of disasters and the methods for studying them.

Investigating the relationship between growing season quality and childbearing goals

Agricultural production and household food security are hypothesized to play a critical role connecting climate change to downstream effects on women's health, especially in communities dependent on rainfed agriculture. Seasonal variability in agriculture strains food and income resources and makes it a challenging time for households to manage a pregnancy or afford a new child. Yet, there are few direct assessments of the role locally varying agricultural quality plays on women's health, especially reproductive health. In this paper we build on and integrate ideas from past studies focused on climate change and growing season quality in low-income countries with those on reproductive health to examine how variation in local seasonal agricultural quality relates to childbearing goals and family planning use in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Uganda. We use rich, spatially referenced data from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) individual surveys with detailed information on childbearing preferences and family planning decisions. Building on recent advances in remote monitoring of seasonal agriculture, we construct multiple vegetation measures capturing different dimensions of growing season conditions across varying time frames. Results for the Kenya sample indicate that if the recent growing season is better a woman is more likely to want a child in the future. In Uganda, when the growing season conditions are better, women prefer to shorten the time until their next birth and are also more likely to discontinue using family planning. Additional analyses reveal the importance of education and birth spacing in moderating these findings. Overall, our findings suggest that, in some settings, women strategically respond to growing season conditions by adjusting fertility aspirations or family planning use. This study also highlights the importance of operationalizing agriculture in nuanced ways that align with women's lives to better understand how women are impacted by and respond to seasonal climate conditions.

Integrated modeling framework for sustainable agricultural intensification

Agricultural scientists are pursuing sustainable intensification strategies to increase global food availability, but integration from research to impact at the local-level requires knowledge of demographic and human-environment to enhance the adaptive capacity of farmers cultivating <10 ha. Enhancing close collaboration among transdisciplinary teams and these smallholders is critical to co-elaborate policy solutions to ongoing food security crises that are likely to be attuned with local conditions. Human and socio-cultural aspects need to be considered to facilitate both adoption and dissemination of adapted management practices. Despite this well-known need to co-produce knowledge in human systems, we demonstrate the inequality of current agricultural research in smallholder farming systems with heavy focus on a few domains of the sustainable intensification agricultural framework (SIAF), ultimately reducing the overall impact of interventions due to the lack compatibility with prevailing social contexts. Here we propose to integrate agriculture and agronomic models with social and demographic modeling approaches to increase agricultural productivity and food system resilience, while addressing persistent issues in food security. Researchers should consider the scale of interventions, ensure attention is paid to equality and political processes, explore local change interactions, and improve connection of agriculture with nutrition and health outcomes, via nutrition-sensitive agricultural investments.