Predicting later life health status and mortality using state-level socioeconomic characteristics in early life

Influence of Place of Birth on Adult Mortality: The Case of Spain

We use a unique data set from Spain and we estimate life expectancy at age 50 for males and females by place of residence and place of birth. We show that, consistent with expectations regarding the influence of early conditions on adult health and mortality, the effects of place of birth on adult mortality are very strong, irrespective of place of residence. Furthermore, we find that mortality levels observed in a place are strongly influenced by the composition of migrants by place of birth. This is reflected in a new measure of heritability of early childhood conditions that attains a value in the range 0.42-0.43, implying that as much as 43 percent of the variance in Spain's life expectancy at age 50 is explained by place of birth. Finally, we find evidence of the healthy migrant effect, that is, positive health selection of migrants, at a regional level.

Geographic variation in Alzheimer's disease mortality

OBJECTIVE

Accumulating evidence suggests the possibility that early life exposures may contribute to risk of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). This paper explores geographic disparities in AD mortality based on both state of residence in older age as well as state of birth measures in order to assess the relative importance of these factors.

METHODS

We use a subset of a large survey, the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, of over 150,000 individuals aged 65-70 with 15 years of mortality follow-up, allowing us to study over 1050 cases of AD mortality. We use multi-level logistic regression, where individuals are nested within states of residence and/or states of birth, to assess the contributions of place to AD mortality variation.

RESULTS

We show that state of birth explains a modest amount of variation in AD mortality, approximately 4%, which is consistent with life course theories that suggest that early life conditions can produce old age health disparities. However, we also show that nearly all of the variation from state of birth is explained by state of residence in old age.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that later life factors are potentially more consequential targets for intervention in reducing AD mortality and provide some evidence against the importance of macro-level environmental exposures at birth as a core determinant of later AD.

Association and pathways of birth in the stroke belt on old age dementia and stroke Mortality

This paper uses data from the Diet and Health Study (DHS) to examine associations between being born in a "stroke belt" state and old age stroke and mortality outcomes. Adding to prior work that used administrative data, our paper explores educational and health mechanisms that are both stratified by geography and by mortality outcomes. Using logistic regression, we first replicate earlier findings of elevation in risk of dementia mortality (OR 1.13, CI [1.07, 1.20]) and stroke mortality (OR 1.17, CI [1.07, 1.29]) for white individuals born in a stroke belt state. These associations are largely unaffected by controls for educational attainment or by experiences with surviving a stroke and are somewhat attenuated by controls for self-rated health status in old age. The results suggest a need to consider additional life course mechanisms in order to understand the persistent effects of place of birth on old age mortality patterns.

The association of county-level socioeconomic factors with individual tobacco and alcohol use: a longitudinal study of U.S. adults

Background

Place-based factors have been implicated as root causes of socioeconomic disparities in risky health behaviors such as tobacco and alcohol use. Yet few studies examine the effects of county-level socioeconomic characteristics, despite the fact that social and public health policies are often implemented at the county level. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that county-level socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with individual tobacco and alcohol use.

Methods

The sample included a panel of participants from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 9302). The primary predictors were three time-varying measures of socioeconomic disadvantage in an individual’s county of residence: educational attainment, percent unemployment, and per capita income. We first conducted traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) models, both unadjusted and adjusted for individual-level covariates. We then conducted fixed effects (FE) models to adjust for confounding by unmeasured time-invariant individual-level factors.

Results

OLS and FE models yielded contrasting results: higher county-level per capita income was associated with decreased drinking in OLS models and increased drinking in FE models, while decreased county-level educational attainment was associated with decreased smoking in OLS models and more cigarettes per day in FE models. The findings from FE models suggest that OLS models were confounded by unobserved time-invariant characteristics. Notably, the point estimates for the county-level measures were small, and in many cases they may not represent a clinically meaningful effect except at the population level.

Conclusions

These results suggest that county-level socioeconomic characteristics may modestly influence tobacco and alcohol use. Future work should examine the effects of specific county policies that might explain these findings.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6700-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.