Nomograms for prediction of long-term survival in elderly patients after partial hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma

Comorbidity assessment methods and their significance in predicting the results of treatment of older patients undergoing elective abdominal surgeries for cancer - A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

The scoping review was performed to identify methods of comorbidity assessment and to evaluate their significance in predicting the results of treatment of older patients undergoing elective abdominal surgeries for cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov and European Trials Register were searched for eligible studies investigating the impact of comorbidity on various postoperative outcomes of patients aged ≥65. Findings were narratively reported.

RESULTS

The review identified 40 studies with a total population of 59,612 patients, using eight different methods of comorbidity assessment. The most used was Charlson Comorbidity Index (60 % of studies) and presence of specific comorbid conditions (38 %). No study provided rationale for the choice of specific comorbidity measure. Most of the included studies reported short-term results (75 %), such as postoperative complications (43 %) and mortality (18 %) as main clinical endpoint. The results were inconsistent across the studies.

DISCUSSION

There is still no consensus regarding the choice of comorbidity measures and their role in postoperative outcome prediction. Further efforts are needed to develop new, well-designed, more effective comorbidity assessments tools.

Nomogram and calculator for predicting the prognosis of patients with giant hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the factors affecting the overall survival (OS) of giant hepatocellular carcinoma (G-HCC) patients and establish a nomogram and an Internet-based OS calculator for evaluating the OS of G-HCC patients.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 2445 G-HCC patients were searched in the SEER database. The independent variables affecting OS of G-HCC patients were determined by univariate and multivariate analyses, and a nomogram and Internet-based OS calculator were established. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by the C-index, the AUC curve, and calibration curve.

RESULTS

Grade, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, T-staging, M-staging, AFP, and fibrosis were identified as independent variables affecting OS. These variables were included in the nomogram model and Internet-based OS calculator to evaluate OS in G-HCC patients. The C-indices and AUC of the nomogram are better than AJCC-staging system. Similarly, the calibration curves revealed that the actual survival was consistent with nomogram-based survival.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram and Internet-based OS calculator are superior to the traditional AJCC-staging system in the reliability and convenience of prognosis assessment for G-HCC patients, which is more conducive for clinicians to predict the survival of G-HCC patients and make the best treatment strategy.

Development and validation of safety and efficacy-associated risk calculator for hepatocellular carcinoma in the elderly after resection (SEARCHER): A multi-institutional observational study

BACKGROUND

Increased life expectancy and improved perioperative management have resulted in increased utilization of hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among elderly patients. However, individualized model for predicting the surgical safety and efficacy is lacking. The present study aimed to develop a safety and efficacy-associated risk calculator for HCC in the elderly after resection (SEARCHER).

METHODS

From an international multicenter database, elderly patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for HCC were stratified by patient age: 65-69 years, 70-74 years, 75-79 years, and ≥80 years. Short- and long-term outcomes among the 4 groups were compared. Univariate and multivariate analyses of risk factors of postoperative major morbidity, cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were performed in the training cohort. A nomogram-based online calculator was then constructed and validated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

With increasing age, the risk of postoperative major morbidity and worse OS increased (P = 0.001 and 0.020), but not postoperative mortality and CSS (P = 0.577 and 0.890) among patients across the 4 groups. Based on three nomograms to predict major morbidity, CSS and OS, the SEARCHER model was constructed and made available at https://elderlyhcc.shinyapps.io/SEARCHER. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and optimal performance in both the training and validation cohorts, and performed better than the several commonly-used conventional scoring and staging systems of HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

With higher potential postoperative major morbidity and worse OS as patients age, the decision of whether to perform a hepatectomy for HCC needs to be comprehensively considered in the elderly. The proposed SEARCHER model demonstrated good performance to individually predict safety and efficacy of hepatectomy in elderly patients with HCC.

Novel postoperative nomograms for predicting individual prognoses of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma with cirrhosis

Background

Liver cirrhosis is a well-known risk factor for carcinogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of the present study was to construct individual prognostic models for HCC with cirrhosis.

Methods

The clinical differences between HCC patients with and without cirrhosis were compared using a large cohort of 1003 cases. The patients with cirrhosis were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort in a ratio of 2:1. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to reveal the independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in HCC patients with cirrhosis. These factors were subsequently used to construct nomograms.

Results

Multivariate analyses revealed that five clinical variables (hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) positivity, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, tumour diameter, microvascular invasion (MVI), and satellite lesions) and seven variables (HBeAg positivity, AFP level, tumour diameter, MVI, satellite lesions, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase level, and histological differentiation) were significantly associated with RFS and OS, respectively. The C-indices of the nomograms for RFS and OS were 0.739 (P < 0.001) and 0.789 (P < 0.001), respectively, in the training cohort, and 0.752 (P < 0.001) and 0.813 (P < 0.001), respectively, in the validation cohort. The C-indices of the nomograms were significantly higher than those of conventional staging systems (P < 0.001). The calibration plots showed optimal consistence between the nomogram-predicted and observed prognoses.

Conclusions

The nomograms developed in the present study showed good performance in predicting the prognoses of HCC patients with hepatitis B virus-associated cirrhosis.

A Web-Based Prediction Model for Cancer-Specific Survival of Elderly Patients With Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Study Based on SEER Database

Background: Primary liver cancer is a common malignant tumor primarily represented by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The number of elderly patients with early HCC is increasing, and older age is related to a worse prognosis. However, an accurate predictive model for the prognosis of these patients is still lacking.

Methods: Data of eligible elderly patients with early HCC in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2010 to 2016 were downloaded. Patients from 2010 to 2015 were randomly assigned to the training cohort (n = 1093) and validation cohort (n = 461). Patients' data in 2016 (n = 431) was used for external validation. Independent prognostic factors were obtained using univariate and multivariate analyses. Based on these factors, a cancer-specific survival (CSS) nomogram was constructed. The predictive performance and clinical practicability of our nomogram were validated. According to the risk scores of our nomogram, patients were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. A survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank tests.

Results: Age, race, T stage, histological grade, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent predictors for CSS and thus were included in our nomogram. In the training cohort and validation cohort, the concordance indices (C-indices) of our nomogram were 0.739 (95% CI: 0.714–0.764) and 0.756 (95% CI: 0.719–0.793), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) showed similar results. Calibration curves revealed high consistency between observations and predictions. In external validation cohort, C-index (0.802, 95%CI: 0.778–0.826) and calibration curves also revealed high consistency between observations and predictions. Compared with the TNM stage, nomogram-related decision curve analysis (DCA) curves indicated better clinical practicability. Kaplan–Meier curves revealed that CSS significantly differed among the three different risk groups. In addition, an online prediction tool for CSS was developed.

Conclusions: A web-based prediction model for CSS of elderly patients with early HCC was constructed and validated, and it may be helpful for the prognostic evaluation, therapeutic strategy selection, and follow-up management of these patients.

Use of comorbidity indices in patients with any cancer, breast cancer, and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2-positive breast cancer: A systematic review

Objective

To identify comorbidity indices that have been validated in cancer populations, with a focus on breast cancer and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer.

Study design and setting

A systematic review of the literature on the use of comorbidity indices in any cancer, breast cancer, and HER2+ breast cancer using Ovid and PubMed.

Results

The final data set comprised 252 articles (252 any cancer, 39 breast cancer, 7 HER2+ breast cancer). The most common cancers assessed were hematologic and breast, and the most common comorbidity index used was the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) or a CCI derivative. Most validity testing of comorbidity indices used predictive validity based on survival outcomes. Hazard ratios for survival outcomes generally found that a higher comorbidity burden (measured by CCI) increased mortality risk in patients with breast cancer. All breast-cancer studies that validated comorbidity indices used CCI-based indices. Only one article validated a comorbidity index in HER2+ breast cancer.

Conclusion

CCI-based indices are the most appropriate indices to use in the general breast-cancer population. There is insufficient validation of any comorbidity index in HER2+ breast cancer to provide a recommendation, indicating a future need to validate these instruments in this population.

Do the existing staging systems for primary liver cancer apply to combined hepatocellular carcinoma-intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma?

BACKGROUND

The incidence of combined hepatocellular carcinoma-intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-ICC) is relatively low, and the knowledge about the prognosis of cHCC-ICC remains obscure. In the study, we aimed to screen existing primary liver cancer staging systems and shed light on the prognosis and risk factors for cHCC-ICC.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 206 cHCC-ICC patients who received curative surgical resection from April 1999 to March 2017. The correlation of survival measures with the histological types or with tumor staging systems was determined and predictive values of tumor staging systems with cHCC-ICC prognosis were compared.

RESULTS

The histological type was not associated with overall survival (OS) (P = 0.338) or disease-free survival (DFS) (P = 0.843) of patients after curative surgical resection. BCLC, TNM for HCC, and TNM for ICC stages correlated with both OS and DFS in cHCC-ICC (all P < 0.05). The predictive values of TNM for HCC and TNM for ICC stages were similar in terms of predicting postoperative OS (P = 0.798) and DFS (P = 0.191) in cHCC-ICC. TNM for HCC was superior to BCLC for predicting postoperative OS (P = 0.022) in cHCC-ICC.

CONCLUSION

The TNM for HCC staging system should be prioritized for clinical applications in predicting cHCC-ICC prognosis.

The impact of metabolic syndrome (MetS) on surgical outcome for patients with mostly HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) underwent hepatectomy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The impact of metabolic syndrome (MetS) on surgical outcome, mostly in patients with HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent hepatectomy.

METHODS

A propensity score matching analysis was conducted. Patients were categorized into two groups MetS-related hepatocellular carcinoma (MetS-HCC) and 1:1 matched non-MetS-related HCC (non-MetS-HCC). Surgical outcomes were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

Seventy-four MetS-HCC patients and 74 propensity score-matched non-MetS-HCC patients were selected for analysis. The incidence of surgical site infection was higher in the MetS-HCC group than in the non-MetS-HCC group (12.16% vs 0%, P < .005). There was no difference in the recurrence-free survival and overall survival between patients in the MetS-HCC group and in non-MetS-HCC group (P > .05). Microvascular invasion and severe postoperative complications were independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival and overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatectomy for patients with mostly HBV-related HCC in the presence of MetS can result in a higher rate of postoperative surgical site infection compared with those in the absence of MetS, but long-term survival rates are comparable.

Expanding the Surgical Pool for Hepatic Resection to Treat Biliary and Primary Liver Tumors

Surgical management of primary liver and biliary tract tumors has evolved over the past several decades, resulting in improved outcomes in these malignancies with historically poor prognoses. Expansion of patient selection criteria, progress in neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies, development of techniques to increase future liver remnant, and the select utilization of liver transplantation have all contributed to increasing the patient pool for surgical intervention. Ongoing and future studies need to focus on improving multimodality treatment regimens and further refining the selection criteria for transplantation in order to optimize utilization of limited organ resources.

CDCA5 overexpression is an Indicator of poor prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)

BACKGROUND

Accurate and early prognosis of disease is essential to clinical decision making, particularly in diseases, such as HCC, that are typically diagnosed at a late stage in the course of disease and therefore carry a poor prognosis. CDCA5 is a cell cycle regulatory protein that has shown prognostic value in several cancers.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 178 patients with HCC treated with curative liver resection between September 2009 and September 2012 at Nanchong Central Hospital in Nanchong, Sichuan Province, China. Patients were screened for their CDCA5 expression levels and assigned to either the high or low expression group. Patient demographics, comorbidities, clinicopathologic data, such as tumor microvascular invasion status and size, and long-term outcomes were compared between the two groups. The effect of CDCA5 on the proliferation of liver cancer cells was analyzed using in vitro and in vivo assays.

RESULTS

The present study found that increased CDCA5 expression was associated with increased tumor diameter and microvascular invasion in HCC. It was also found that CDCA5 overexpression may be associated with liver cancer cells. Additionally, this study confirmed that CDCA5 expression was increased in HCC tissue versus normal liver tissue, that CDCA5 expression was associated with decreased survival and that CDCA5 knockdown using shRNA led to cell cycle arrest in the G2/M phase.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that CDCA5 expression is associated with poor prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Noninvasive imaging of hepatocellular carcinoma: From diagnosis to prognosis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and a major public health problem worldwide. Hepatocarcinogenesis is a complex multistep process at molecular, cellular, and histologic levels with key alterations that can be revealed by noninvasive imaging modalities. Therefore, imaging techniques play pivotal roles in the detection, characterization, staging, surveillance, and prognosis evaluation of HCC. Currently, ultrasound is the first-line imaging modality for screening and surveillance purposes. While based on conclusive enhancement patterns comprising arterial phase hyperenhancement and portal venous and/or delayed phase wash-out, contrast enhanced dynamic computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are the diagnostic tools for HCC without requirements for histopathologic confirmation. Functional MRI techniques, including diffusion-weighted imaging, MRI with hepatobiliary contrast agents, perfusion imaging, and magnetic resonance elastography, show promise in providing further important information regarding tumor biological behaviors. In addition, evaluation of tumor imaging characteristics, including nodule size, margin, number, vascular invasion, and growth patterns, allows preoperative prediction of tumor microvascular invasion and patient prognosis. Therefore, the aim of this article is to review the current state-of-the-art and recent advances in the comprehensive noninvasive imaging evaluation of HCC. We also provide the basic key concepts of HCC development and an overview of the current practice guidelines.