Preoperative prediction of a pathologic complete response of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Prediction of Locoregional Recurrence-Free Survival of Oesophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma After Chemoradiotherapy Based on an Enhanced CT-Based Radiomics Model

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Chemoradiotherapy is the standard treatment for moderate and advanced oesophageal cancer. The aim of this study was to establish a predictive model based on enhanced computed tomography examination, and to evaluate its clinical value for detecting locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS) in cases of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radiotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, 218 patients with pathologically diagnosed oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma who received radical chemoradiotherapy from July 2016 to December 2017 were collected in this study. Patients were randomly divided into either a training group (n=153) or a validation group (n=65) in a 7:3 ratio. Clinical patient information was then recorded. The enhanced computed tomography scan images of the patients were imported into 3D-slicer software (version 4.8.1), and the radiomic features were extracted by the Python programme package. In the training group, the dimensionality reduction of the radiomic features was implemented by Lasso regression, and then a radiological label, the model of predicting LRFS, was established and evaluated. To achieve a better prediction performance, the radiological label was combined with clinical risk factor information to construct a radiomics nomogram. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the efficacy of different models. Calibration curves were used to assess the consistency between the predicted and observed recurrence risk, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow method was used to test model fitness. The C-index evaluated the discriminating ability of the prediction model. Decision curve analysis was used to determine the clinical value of the constructed prediction model.

RESULTS

Of the 218 patients followed up in this study, 44 patients (28.8%) in the training group and 21 patients (32.3%) in the validation group experienced recurrence. There was no difference in LRFS between the two groups (χ2 = 0.525, P=0.405). Lasso regression was used in the training group to select six significant radiomic features. The radiological label established using these six features had a satisfactory prediction performance. The C-index was 0.716 (95% CI: 0.645-0.787) in the training group and 0.718 (95% CI: 0.612-0.825) in the validation group. The radiomics nomogram, which included the radiological label and clinical risk factors, achieved a better prediction than the radiological label alone. The C-index was 0.742 (95% CI: 0.674-0.810) in the training group and 0.715 (95% CI: 0.609-0.820) in the validation group. The results of the calibration curve and decision curve analyses indicated that the radiomics nomogram was superior in predicting LRFS of oesophageal carcinoma after radiotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

A radiological label was successfully established to predict the LRFS of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radiotherapy. The radiomics nomogram was complementary to the clinical prognostic features and could improve the prediction of the LRFS after radiotherapy for oesophageal cancer.

Prediction of the tumor response and survival based on computed tomography in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after trimodality therapy

PURPOSE

Predicting the response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) and the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is challenging. This study evaluated the potential of a preoperative computed tomography (CT) analysis for predicting the pathological response and survival of patients with ESCC who received trimodality therapy.

METHODS

A total of 119 patients with cT3 or T4 ESCC who underwent surgery following NCRT between 2007 and 2019 were assessed. The CT-based parameters were measured with enhanced CT preoperatively, prior to and during treatment. Associations between these parameters and the pathologic response, as well as the prognosis, were examined.

RESULTS

Pretreatment maximum CT value (p = 0.009), pretreatment mean CT value (p = 0.022), preoperative whole tumor volume (WTV, p = 0.003), preoperative largest cross section (LCS, p = 0.002), ΔLCS (pretreatment to preoperative, p = 0.004), ΔWTV (pretreatment to preoperative, p = 0.012), and Δmean CT value (pretreatment to preoperative, p = 0.012) of the primary lesion were significantly associated with a good pathological response. A Cox-regression analysis of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) showed that preoperative LCS was an independent CT-based predictor. RFS and OS were significantly higher at the optimal cut-off value of the preoperative LCS (p = 0.036 and p = 0.016, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

CT-based parameters are thus considered to be valuable predictors of the tumor response and survival after trimodality therapy for ESCC.

Moderately differentiated esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has a poor prognosis after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Background

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) plus surgery is the standard treatment for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC); however, further analysis is needed to detail the histopathological characteristics of ESCC and their clinical significance after NCRT. This study aimed to present the pathological characteristics of ESCC and their association with prognosis after NCRT.

Methods

All patients with ESCC who underwent NCRT followed by surgical resection at Sichuan Cancer Hospital (China) from January 2018 to December 2019 were included. Resection specimens of both the primary disease and lymph nodes were re-evaluated by an experienced pathologist. After NCRT, the pathological characteristics of the residual tumor were evaluated based on the Japanese residual tumor pattern, Mandard tumor regression grade (Mandard-TRG), local inflammatory infiltration classification, and lymph node status.

Results

Among the 103 patients with ESCC included in this study, the pathological complete response (pCR) rate was 34% (35/103). The pCR rate of patients with poorly differentiated tumors (31/72) was higher (43.1%) than that of patients with well or moderately differentiated tumors (P<0.05). The residual tumor rate was 66% (68/103). A positive correlation was noted between the Japanese residual tumor pattern and Mandard-TRG (Kendall’s tau-b =0.857, P<0.001). Tumor infiltration depth, lymph node positivity, moderate differentiation, and tumor recurrence were associated with poor oncological outcomes (P<0.05).

Conclusions

Patients with poorly differentiated tumors can obtain an excellent short-term response; however, they have extremely poor long-term survival. For patients with moderately differentiated tumors, both the short- and long-term outcomes are poor. Lymph node status after NCRT is a prognostic factor for ESCC treated with NCRT.

Distribution of Lymph Node Metastasis in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma After Trimodal Therapy

BACKGROUND

Although metastatic tumors in lymph nodes (LN) are potentially affected by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT), the distribution of LN metastases of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after trimodal therapy has never been sufficiently estimated.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We evaluated the distribution of LN metastases, relationships between LN metastases and radiation fields, risk factors for LN metastasis, and the influence of LN metastasis on the survival of 184 patients with ESCC who underwent NCRT followed by esophagectomy.

RESULTS

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy resulted in down-staged LN status in 74 (49.3%) patients. Pathological LN metastases were extensive in 177 LN stations in the cervical, mediastinal, and abdominal fields, and 162 (91.5%) metastases were located inside the radiation fields. Multivariate analysis showed that clinical N stage [N0 vs. 1/2/3: hazard ratio (HR), 2.69; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.22-5.92; p = 0.01] and clinical response of primary tumor (complete vs. noncomplete: HR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.50-5.69; p = 0.002) were statistically significant for pathological LN metastasis. Recurrence-free and overall survivals were significantly stratified according to the number of pathological LN metastases, associations between clinical and pathological LN metastases, and presence or absence of pathological LN metastases outside radiation field.

CONCLUSIONS

About 50% of patients who were clinically diagnosed with LN metastasis before treatment were downstaged by NCRT, and their prognoses were relatively good. However, LN metastases were extensive at the cervical, mediastinal, and abdominal areas, even within the radiation field. Thus, systematic and adequate lymphadenectomy is required for ESCC treated by NCRT.

Development and Validation of a Radiomics Nomogram Model for Predicting Postoperative Recurrence in Patients With Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Who Achieved pCR After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Surgery

Background and purpose: Although patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) can achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgery, one-third of these patients with a pCR may still experience recurrence. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a predictive model to estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS) in those patients who achieved pCR. Materials and methods: Two hundred six patients with ESCC were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 146) and a validation cohort (n = 60). Radiomic features were extracted from contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) images of each patient. Feature reduction was then implemented in two steps, including a multiple segmentation test and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox proportional hazards regression method. A radiomics signature was subsequently constructed and evaluated. For better prediction performance, a clinical nomogram based on clinical risk factors and a nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature and clinical risk factors was built. Finally, the prediction models were further validated by calibration and the clinical usefulness was examined in the validation cohort to determine the optimal prediction model. Results: The radiomics signature was constructed using eight radiomic features and displayed a significant correlation with RFS. The nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature with clinical risk factors achieved optimal performance compared with the radiomics signature (P < 0.001) and clinical nomogram (P < 0.001) in both the training cohort [C-index (95% confidence interval [CI]), 0.746 (0.680-0.812) vs. 0.685 (0.620-0.750) vs. 0.614 (0.538-0.690), respectively] and validation cohort [C-index (95% CI), 0.724 (0.696-0.752) vs. 0.671 (0.624-0.718) vs. 0.629 (0.597-0.661), respectively]. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis revealed that the radiomics nomogram outperformed the other two models. Conclusions: A radiomics nomogram model incorporating radiomics features and clinical factors has been developed and has the improved ability to predict the postoperative recurrence risk in patients with ESCC who achieved pCR after nCRT followed by surgery.

Clinical response assessment on DW-MRI compared with FDG-PET/CT after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal cancer

PURPOSE

In about 30% of patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgical resection for locally advanced oesophageal cancer no vital tumour is found in the resection specimen. Accurate clinical response assessment is critical if deferral from surgery is considered in complete responders. Our study aimed to compare the performance of MRI and of FDG-PET/CT for the detection of residual disease after nCRT.

METHODS

Patients with oesophageal cancer eligible for nCRT and oesophagectomy were prospectively included. All patients underwent FDG-PET/CT and MRI before and between 6 and 8 weeks after nCRT. Two radiologists scored the MRI scans, and two nuclear medicine physicians scored the FDG-PET/CT scans using a 5-point score for residual disease. Histopathology after oesophagectomy represented the reference standard. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated for detection of residual tumour (ypT+), residual nodal disease (ypN+), and any residual disease (ypT+Nx/ypT0N+).

RESULTS

Seven out of 33 (21%) patients had a pathological complete response. The AUCs for individual readers to detect ypT+ were 0.71/0.70 on diffusion-weighted (DW)-MRI and 0.54/0.57 on FDG-PET/CT, and to detect ypN+ were 0.89/0.81 on DW-MRI and 0.75/0.71 on FDG-PET/CT. The AUCs/sensitivities/specificities for the individual readers to detect any residual disease were 0.74/92%/57% and 0.70/96%/43% on MRI; these were 0.49/69%/29% and 0.60/69%/43% on FDG-PET/CT, respectively.

CONCLUSION

MRI reached higher diagnostic accuracies than FDG-PET/CT for the detection of residual tumour in oesophageal cancer patients at 6 to 8 weeks after nCRT.

Clinical significance of evaluating endoscopic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Clinical significance of endoscopic response (ER) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for esophageal cancer has not been fully understood. Thus, the present study aimed to investigate the association between ER to NAC and its clinicopathological outcomes in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

In total, 141 patients who underwent NAC and subsequent esophagectomy for ESCC were included. ER to NAC was retrospectively evaluated based on macroscopic findings of the primary tumor, which was classified into three categories: endoscopic no response (eNR), endoscopic partial response (ePR), and endoscopic good response (eGR). An endoscopic responder was defined as patients with eGR/ePR.

RESULTS

Approximately 89.4% of patients had cStage II-III disease, and 7.1% had pathological complete response. Upon ER evaluation, eNR, ePR, and eGR were observed in 46 (32.6%), 54 (38.3%), and 41 (29.1%) patients, respectively. Pathological responders significantly increased as the ER grade became better. Among preoperative clinical factors, only ER significantly correlated with pathological response in univariate and multivariate analysis. Endoscopic responders showed a significantly better prognosis than did eNR patients (P < 0.001), although the overall survival (OS) of the patients with eGR and ePR was equivalent. Endoscopic responder, ypT, ypN, and pathological responder were significant predictors of OS in the univariate analysis, and endoscopic responder, ypN, and pathological responder were independent predictors in the multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that ER can be a simple and important tool to predict the pathological response and survival of patients who undergo NAC for ESCC.

Analyzing the post-contrast attenuation of the esophageal wall on routine contrast-enhanced MDCT examination can improve the diagnostic accuracy in response evaluation of the squamous cell esophageal carcinoma to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in comparison with the esophageal wall thickness

PURPOSE

To evaluate the accuracy of the multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) in the response evaluation of the esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) by analyzing the thickness and post-contrast attenuation of the esophageal wall after the nCRT.

METHODS

Contrast-enhanced (CE)-MDCT examinations in portal venous phase of one hundred patients with locally advanced ESCC who received nCRT and underwent esophageal resection and histopathology assessment of tumor regression grade (TRG) were retrospectively analyzed by measuring the maximal thickness and mean density of the esophageal wall in the segment involved by tumor and visually searching for hyperdense foci within it. Diagnostic performance was evaluated using the ROC analysis.

RESULTS

Average attenuation of the esophageal wall had stronger diagnostic performance for predicting pathologic complete regression (pCR) (AUC = 0.994; p < 0.001) in relation to maximal esophageal wall thickness (AUC = 0.731; p < 0.001). Maximal esophageal wall thickness ≤ 9 mm and average attenuation of the esophageal wall ≤ 64 HU predicted pCR with the sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy of 62.5%, 77.9%, and 73%, and 96.9%, 98.5%, and 98%, respectively. Combination of both cutoff values enabled correct assessment of pCR with the 100% accuracy. Visual detection of the hyperdense focus within the esophageal wall predicted pCR with the sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy values of 100%, 94.1%, and 96%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Visual analysis and measurement of post-contrast attenuation of the esophageal wall after the nCRT can improve diagnostic accuracy of MDCT in the response evaluation of the ESCC to nCRT in comparison with measuring the esophageal wall thickness.

The Prognostic Value of a Pathologic Complete Response After Neoadjuvant Therapy for Digestive Cancer: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 21 Studies

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) before radical excision has become the preferred initial option for locally advanced digestive cancers such as esophageal cancer (EC), esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC), gastric adenocarcinoma (GAC), rectal cancer (RC), and pancreatic cancer (PC). Although some patients reportedly achieve a pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant therapy, the published data are inconsistent regarding whether pCR yields a survival benefit. The current meta-analysis was performed to assess the potential prognostic value of pCR after preoperative therapy for patients with digestive cancers.

METHODS

An extensive electronic search in PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library was performed for relevant articles, from which data relative to independent correlations of pCR with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were extracted for analysis. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled hazard ratios (HRs) with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The study identified 6780 patients who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The results showed that pCR was significantly correlated with better OS (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.43-0.58; P < 0.001) and DFS (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.40-0.60; P < 0.001) for the digestive cancer patients who achieved pCR than for those who did not achieve pCR. Subgroup analysis showed that the correlation of pCR with OS was significant in EC (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.47-0.69; P < 0.001), EGJAC/GAC (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.17-0.86; P = 0.02), RC (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.28-0.81; P = 0.006), and PC (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.17-0.97; P = 0.04). In addition, the survival benefit for pCR patients was of similar magnitude, irrespective of the type of study, type of NAT, or ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

A pCR is correlated with favorable survival outcomes compared with a non-pCR for digestive cancer patients after NAT.