Preoperative risk stratification of postoperative pancreatic fistula: A risk-tree predictive model for pancreatoduodenectomy

Impact of a robotic approach on hypoattenuated area formation leading to postoperative pancreatic fistula in patients after pancreatoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Hypoattenuated area (HA) formation at the pancreatojejunostomy (PJ) site on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) is significantly associated with clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after open pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) (O-PD). Here, we evaluated the impact of HA formation in robotic PD (R-PD) and surgical factors predictive of HA formation.

METHODS

The study retrospectively analyzed 66 patients who underwent either O-PD or R-PD and exhibited a drain amylase level exceeding three times the upper limit of normal range, with CE-CT assessment performed on postoperative days 3-14. Patients were divided into two groups, with evident HA (≥ 5 mm) (E-HA) and subtle HA (< 5 mm) (S-HA), and their data were analyzed by multivariate and propensity-score matching analyses.

RESULTS

Among the patients, 24 (36.3%) exhibited E-HA and 42 (63.7%) S-HA. The percentages of R-PD and CR-POPF in E-HA group were significantly lower and higher, respectively, than S-HA group (R-PD: 29.2% vs 54.8%, p = 0.0446; CR-POPF: 70.8% vs 4.8%, p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed the surgical approach as a significant factor associated with E-HA formation (odds ratio: 0.26; p = 0.0223). Propensity-score matching analysis revealed significantly fewer patients with E-HA formation and CR-POPF in R-PD group than O-PD group (E-HA: 14.3% vs 64.3%, p = 0.0068; CR-POPF: 14.3% vs 57.1%, p = 0.0180).

CONCLUSION

The impact of HA formation in predicting CR-POPF was confirmed in the patients undergoing PD, including O-PD and R-PD. Furthermore, the data suggest that R-PD, compared with O-PD, significantly decreased the incidence of E-HA formation, indicating an advantage of R-PD over O-PD in reducing CR-POPF via HA formation.

Predictive value of postoperative serum lipase level for postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

The prediction of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is important. This study aimed to investigate the role of postoperative serum lipase level in predicting POPF.

METHODS

Data from 234 consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) were collected. The predictive values of serum amylase and serum lipase during postoperative days (PODs) 1 to 3 for POPF were compared. Subgroup analyses were performed to determine the prognostic value of different levels and durations of elevated serum lipase.

RESULTS

Fifty-six patients developed POPF. The POPF group exhibited increased levels of serum amylase and lipase from PODs 1 to 3 (all P < 0.001). Compared with serum amylase, serum lipase has greater predictive value for POPF. Specifically, serum lipase had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at POD 1 (0.791). Body mass index > 24 kg/m2 [odds ratio (OR) = 2.431, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.094-5.404, P = 0.029], soft pancreatic texture (OR = 3.189, 95% CI: 1.263-8.056, P = 0.014), serum lipase > 60 U/L at POD 1 (OR = 5.135, 95% CI: 1.257-20.982, P = 0.023), and C-reactive protein > 167 mg/dL at POD 3 (OR = 3.607, 95% CI: 1.431-9.090, P = 0.007) were identified as independent risk factors for POPF. Patients with serum lipase ≤ 60 U/L at POD 1 (n = 104) exhibited lower rates of POPF (3.8% vs. 40.0%, P < 0.001) and severe complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ IIIa) (4.8% vs. 25.4%, P < 0.001) than those with serum lipase > 60 U/L at POD 1. Moreover, no additional elevation or duration of serum lipase offered any further prognostic value.

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative serum lipase outperformed serum amylase in the prediction of POPF, and patients with normal serum lipase level at POD 1 had favorable outcomes. A sustained increase in the serum lipase level offers no additional prognostic value.

International multicentre validation of the left pancreatectomy pancreatic fistula prediction models and development and validation of the combined DISPAIR-FRS prediction model

BACKGROUND

Every fifth patient undergoing left pancreatectomy develops a postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). Accurate POPF risk prediction could help. Two independent preoperative prediction models have been developed and externally validated: DISPAIR and D-FRS. The aim of this study was to validate, compare, and possibly update the models.

METHODS

Patients from nine high-volume pancreatic surgery centres (8 in Europe and 1 in North America) were included in this retrospective cohort study. Inclusion criteria were age over 18 years and open or minimally invasive left pancreatectomy since 2010. Model performance was assessed with discrimination (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves) and calibration (calibration plots). The updated model was developed with logistic regression and internally-externally validated.

RESULTS

Of 2284 patients included, 497 (21.8%) developed POPF. Both DISPAIR (area under the ROC curve (AUC) 0.62) and D-FRS (AUC 0.62) performed suboptimally, both in the pooled validation cohort combining every centre's data and centre-wise. An updated model, named DISPAIR-FRS, was constructed by combining the most stable predictors from the existing models and incorporating other readily available patient demographics, such as age, sex, transection site, pancreatic thickness at the transection site, and main pancreatic duct diameter at the transection site. Internal-external validation demonstrated an AUC of 0.72, a calibration slope of 0.93, and an intercept of -0.02 for the updated model.

CONCLUSION

The combined updated model of DISPAIR and D-FRS named DISPAIR-FRS demonstrated better performance and can be accessed at www.tinyurl.com/the-dispair-frs.

Effects of Pancreatic Fistula After Minimally Invasive and Open Pancreatoduodenectomy

Importance

Postoperative pancreatic fistulas (POPF) are the biggest contributor to surgical morbidity and mortality after pancreatoduodenectomy. The impact of POPF could be influenced by the surgical approach.

Objective

To assess the clinical impact of POPF in patients undergoing minimally invasive pancreatoduodenectomy (MIPD) and open pancreatoduodenectomy (OPD).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted from 2007 to 2020 in 36 referral centers in Europe, South America, and Asia. Participants were patients with POPF (grade B/C as defined by the International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery [ISGPS]) after MIPD and OPD (MIPD-POPF, OPD-POPF). Propensity score matching was performed in a 1:1 ratio based on the variables age (continuous), sex, body mass index (continuous), American Society of Anesthesiologists score (dichotomous), vascular involvement, neoadjuvant therapy, tumor size, malignancy, and POPF grade C. Data analysis was performed from July to October 2023.

Exposure

MIPD and OPD.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the presence of a second clinically relevant (ISGPS grade B/C) complication (postpancreatic hemorrhage [PPH], delayed gastric emptying [DGE], bile leak, and chyle leak) besides POPF.

Results

Overall, 1130 patients with POPF were included (558 MIPD and 572 OPD), of whom 336 patients after MIPD were matched to 336 patients after OPD. The median (IQR) age was 65 (58-73) years; there were 703 males (62.2%) and 427 females (37.8%). Among patients who had MIPD-POPF, 129 patients (55%) experienced a second complication compared with 95 patients (36%) with OPD-POPF (P < .001). The rate of PPH was higher with MIPD-POPF (71 patients [21%] vs 22 patients [8.0%]; P < .001), without significant differences for DGE (65 patients [19%] vs 45 patients [16%]; P = .40), bile leak (43 patients [13%] vs 52 patients [19%]; P = .06), and chyle leak (1 patient [0.5%] vs 5 patients [1.9%]; P = .39). MIPD-POPF was associated with a longer hospital stay (median [IQR], 27 [18-38] days vs 22 [15-30] days; P < .001) and more reoperations (67 patients [21%] vs 21 patients [7%]; P < .001) but comparable in-hospital/30-day mortality (25 patients [7%] vs 7 patients [5%]; P = .31) with OPD-POPF, respectively.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that for patients after MIPD, the presence of POPF is more frequently associated with other clinically relevant complications compared with OPD. This underscores the importance of perioperative mitigation strategies for POPF and the resulting PPH in high-risk patients.

[Anastomotic leakage in hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery]

Severe complications following hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery are frequently due to leakage of anastomoses. Local intraoperative and systematic measures can reduce the incidence of leaks and leak-related sequelae. The early identification of leak-related sequelae, such as hemorrhage is pivotal to reduce the mortality risk. Therefore, perioperative risk stratification incorporating surgical and patient risk factors is crucial. The management of anastomotic leaks is complex and an interdisciplinary treatment is therefore recommended. The treatment depends on the institutional expertise, localization, characteristic features of the anastomosis and the onset of insufficiency. This article describes the different concepts of the diagnostics, prevention, consequences and management of anastomotic leakage in hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery in more detail.

Efficacy of the two-parts wrapping technique in reducing postoperative complications in laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

The advancement of laparoscopic technology has broadened the application of laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD) for treating pancreatic head and ampullary tumors. Despite its benefits, postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and postpancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) remain significant complications. Ligamentum teres hepatis wrapping around the gastroduodenal artery (GDA) stump show limitations in reducing POPF and PPH.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed patients undergoing LPD from January 2016 to October 2023, We compared the effectiveness of the two-parts wrapping (the ligamentum teres hepatis wrapping of the gastroduodenal artery stump and the omentum flap wrapping of the pancreatojejunal anastomosis) and ligamentum teres hepatis wrapping around the gastroduodenal artery (GDA) in reducing postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and postpancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH), using propensity score matching for the analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 172 patients were analyzed, showing that the two-parts wrapping group significantly reduced the rates of overall and severe complications, POPF, and PPH compared to ligamentum teres hepatis wrapping around the GDA group. Specifically, the study found lower rates of grade B/C POPF and no instances of PPH in the two-parts wrapping group, alongside shorter postoperative hospital stays and drainage removal times. These benefits were particularly notable in patients with soft pancreatic textures and pancreatic duct diameters of < 3 mm.

CONCLUSION

The two-parts wrapping technique significantly reduce the risks of POPF and PPH in LPD, offering a promising approach for patients with soft pancreas and pancreatic duct diameter of < 3 mm.

A Comparison of Preoperative Predictive Scoring Systems for Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreaticoduodenectomy Based on a Single-Center Analysis

Background: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is associated with major postoperative morbidity and mortality. Several scoring systems have been described to stratify patients into risk groups according to the risk of POPF. The aim of this study was to compare scoring systems in patients who underwent a PD. Methods: A total of 196 patients undergoing PD from July 2019 to June 2022 were identified from a prospectively maintained database of the University Hospital Ghent. After performing a literature search, four validated, solely preoperative risk scores and the intraoperative Fistula Risk Score (FRS) were included in our analysis. Furthermore, we eliminated the variable blood loss (BL) from the FRS and created an additional score. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for all risk factors, followed by a ROC analysis for the six scoring systems. Results: All scores showed strong prognostic stratification for developing POPF (p < 0.001). FRS showed the best predictive accuracy in general (AUC 0.862). FRS without BL presented the best prognostic value of the scores that included solely preoperative variables (AUC 0.783). Soft pancreatic texture, male gender, and diameter of the Wirsung duct were independent prognostic factors on multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Although all predictive scoring systems stratify patients accurately by risk of POPF, preoperative risk stratification could improve clinical decision-making and implement preventive strategies for high-risk patients. Therefore, the preoperative use of the FRS without BL is a potential alternative.

Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: Current status and future perspectives

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a frequent complication after pancreatectomy, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research. Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy, predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical, surgical, and radiological parameters, have been documented, their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations. As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be progressively reported, their external validation is eagerly anticipated. Conversely, POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage, warranting urgent need for further development and validation. The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance. Moreover, there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient- or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF. In the future, prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies, such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics, may further refine predictive models. Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification, clinical decision-making, and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancreatectomy.

Quantitative edge analysis of pancreatic margins in patients with head pancreatic tumors: correlations between pancreatic margins and the onset of postoperative pancreatic fistula

OBJECTIVE

To assess the correlation between pancreatic quantitative edge analysis as a surrogate of parenchymal stiffness and the incidence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

METHODS

All consecutive patients who underwent PD at our Institution between March 2018 and November 2019 with an available preoperative CT were included. Pancreatic margin score (PMS) was calculated through computer-assisted quantitative edge analysis on the margins of the pancreatic body and tail (the expected pancreatic remnant) on non-contrast scans with in-house software. Intraoperative assessment of pancreatic stiffness by manual palpation was also performed, classifying pancreatic texture into soft and non-soft. PMS values were compared between groups using an unpaired T-test and correlated with the intraoperative evaluation of stiffness and with the grading of postoperative pancreatic fistula according to the International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS).

RESULTS

Patient population included 200 patients (mean age 64.6 years), 146 without onset of POPF (73%, non-POPF group), and 54 with POPF (27%, POPF group). A significant difference in PMS values was observed between POPF and non-POPF (respectively 1.88 ± 0.05 vs 0.69 ± 0.01; p < 0.0001). PMS values of pancreatic parenchymas intraoperatively considered "soft" were significantly higher than those evaluated as "non-soft" (1.21 ± 0.04 vs 0.73 ± 0.02; p < 0.0001). A significant correlation between PMS values and POPF grade was observed (r = 0.8316), even in subgroups of patients with soft (r = 0.8016) and non-soft (r = 0.7602) pancreas (all p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Quantitative edge analysis with dedicated software may stratify patients with different pancreatic stiffness, thus potentially improving preoperative risk assessment and strategies for POPF mitigation.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

This study proposes quantitative pancreas edge analysis as a predictor for postoperative pancreatic fistula. The test has high accuracy and correlation with fistula grade according to the International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery.

KEY POINTS

• Prediction of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) onset risk after pancreaticoduodenectomy is based only on intraoperative evaluation. • Quantitative edge analysis may preoperatively identify patients with higher risk of POPF. • Quantification of pancreatic stiffness through the analysis of pancreatic margins could be done on preoperative CT.

Combined pre-operative risk score predicts pancreatic leak after pancreatic resection

BACKGROUND

Post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major complication following pancreatectomy and is currently difficult to predict pre-operatively. This study aims to validate pre-operative risk factors and develop a novel combined score for the prediction of POPF in the pre-operative setting.

METHODS

Data were collected from 2016 to 2021 for radiologic main pancreatic duct diameter (MPD), body mass index (BMI), physical status classified by American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), polypharmacy, mean platelet ratio (MPR), comorbidity-polypharmacy score (CPS), and a novel Combined Pancreatic Leak Prediction Score (CPLPS) (derived from MPD diameter, BMI, and CPS) were obtained from pre-operative data and analyzed for their independent association with POPF occurrence.

RESULTS

In total, 166 patients who underwent pancreatectomy with pancreatic leak (Grade A, B, and C) occurring in 51(30.7%) of patients. Pre-operative radiologic MPD diameter < 4 mm (p < 0.001), < 5 mm (p < 0.001), < 6 mm (p = 0.001), BMI ≥ 25 (p = 0.009), and ≥ 30 (p = 0.017) were independently associated with the occurrence of pancreatic leak. CPLPS was also predictive of pancreatic leak following pancreatectomy on univariate (p = 0.005) and multivariate analysis (p = 0.036).

CONCLUSION

MPD and BMI were independent risk factors predictive for the development of pancreatic leak. CPLPS, was an independent predictor of pancreatic leak following pancreatectomy and could be used to help guide surgical decision making and patient counseling.

Risk Models for Developing Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy: Validation in a Nationwide Prospective Cohort

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the performance of published fistula risk models by external validation, and to identify independent risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF).

BACKGROUND

Multiple risk models have been developed to predict POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy. External validation in high-quality prospective cohorts is, however, lacking or only performed for individual models.

METHODS

A post hoc analysis of data from the stepped-wedge cluster cluster-randomized Care After Pancreatic Resection According to an Algorithm for Early Detection and Minimally Invasive Management of Pancreatic Fistula versus Current Practice (PORSCH) trial was performed. Included were all patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy in the Netherlands (January 2018-November 2019). Risk models on POPF were identified by a systematic literature search. Model performance was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating curves (AUC) and calibration plots. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors associated with clinically relevant POPF.

RESULTS

Overall, 1358 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy were included, of whom 341 patients (25%) developed clinically relevant POPF. Fourteen risk models for POPF were evaluated, with AUCs ranging from 0.62 to 0.70. The updated alternative fistula risk score had an AUC of 0.70 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.69-0.72). The alternative fistula risk score demonstrated an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.689-0.71), whilst an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.699-0.71) was also found for the model by Petrova and colleagues. Soft pancreatic texture, pathology other than pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma or chronic pancreatitis, small pancreatic duct diameter, higher body mass index, minimally invasive resection and male sex were identified as independent predictors of POPF.

CONCLUSION

Published risk models predicting clinically relevant POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy have a moderate predictive accuracy. Their clinical applicability to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment strategies is therefore questionable.

Either High or Low Risk: The Acinar Score at the Resection Margin Dichotomizes the Risk Spectrum of Pancreas-specific Complications After Pancreatoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic acinar content (Ac) has been associated with pancreas-specific complications after pancreatoduodenectomy. The aim of this study was to improve the prediction ability of intraoperative risk stratification by integrating the pancreatic acinar score.

METHODS

A training and validation cohort underwent pancreatoduodenectomy with a subsequent histologic assessment of pancreatic section margins for Ac, fibrosis (Fc), and fat. Intraoperative risk stratification (pancreatic texture, duct diameter) and pancreas-specific complications (postoperative hyperamylasemia [POH], postpancreatectomy acute pancreatitis [PPAP], pancreatic fistula [POPF]) were classified according to ISGPS definitions.

RESULTS

In the validation cohort (n= 373), the association of pancreas-specific complications with higher Ac and lower Fc was replicated (all P <0.001). In the entire cohort (n= 761), the ISGPS classification allocated 275 (36%) patients into intermediate-risk classes B (POH 32%/PPAP 3%/POPF 17%) and C (POH 36%/PPAP 9%/POPF 33%). Using the acinar score (Ac ≥60% and/or Fc ≤10%), intermediate-risk patients could be dichotomized into a low-risk (POH 5%/PPAP 1%/POPF 6%) and a high-risk (POH 51%/PPAP 9%/POPF 38%) group (all P <0.001). The acinar score AUC for POPF prediction was 0.70 in the ISGPS intermediate-risk classes. Overall, 239 (31%) patients were relocated into the high-risk group from lower ISGPS risk classes using the acinar score.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of pancreas-specific complications appears to be dichotomous-either high or low-according to the acinar score, a tool to better target the application of mitigation strategies in cases of intermediate macroscopic features.

A novel prediction model of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy using only preoperative markers

BACKGROUND

Since clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) can cause intra-abdominal hemorrhage and abscesses, leading to surgery-related deaths after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), its preoperative prediction is important to develop strategies for surgical procedures and perioperative management. This study aimed to establish a novel prediction model for CR-POPF using preoperative markers.

METHODS

On a training set of 180 patients who underwent PD at the Yamaguchi University Hospital, a combination of CR-POPF predictors were explored using the leave-one-out method with a unique discrete Bayes classifier. This predictive model was confirmed using a validation set of 366 patients who underwent PD at the Osaka University Hospital.

RESULTS

In the training set, CR-POPF occurred in 60 (33%)　of 180 patients and 130 (36%)　of 366 patients in the validation set using selected markers. In patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), the main pancreatic duct (MPD) index showed the highest prognostic performance and could differentiate CR-POPF with 87% sensitivity and 81% specificity among 84 patients in the training set. In the validation set, the sensitivity and specificity of the MPD index-based model for 130 PDAC samples were 93% and 87%, respectively. In patients with non-PDAC, the MPD index/body mass index (BMI) combination showed the highest prognostic performance and could differentiate CR-POPF with 84% sensitivity and 57% specificity among 96 patients in the training set. In the validation set, the sensitivity and specificity of the MPD index/BMI-based model for 236 non-PDAC samples were 85% and 53%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed a novel prediction model for pancreatic fistulas after PD using only preoperative markers. The MPD index and MPD index/BMI combination will be useful for CR-POPF assessment in PDAC and non-PDAC samples, respectively.

Routes of nutrition for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy: a prospective snapshot study identifies the need for therapy standardization

The aim of this study is to describe the current utilization of artificial nutrition [enteral (EN) or total parenteral (TPN)] for pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). Prospective data of 311 patients who consecutively underwent PD at a tertiary referral center for pancreatic surgery were collected. Data included the use of EN or TPN specifically for POPF treatment, including timing, outcomes, and adverse events related to their administration. POPF occurred in 66 (21%) patients and 52 (79%) of them were treated with artificial nutrition, for a median of 36 days. Forty (76%) patients were treated with a combination of TPN and EN. The median day of artificial nutrition start was postoperative day 7, with a median drain output of 180 cc/24 h. In 33 (63%) patients, artificial nutrition was started while only a biochemical leak was ongoing. Fungal infections and catheter-related bloodstream infection occurred in 13 (28%) and 15 (33%) TPN patients, respectively; among EN patients, 19 (41%) experienced diarrhea not responsive to pancreatic enzymes and 9 (20%) needed multiple endoscopic naso-jejunal tube positioning. The majority of the patients developing POPF after PD were treated with a combination of TPN and EN, with a clinically relevant rate of adverse events related to their administration. Standardization of nutrition routes in patients developing POPF is urgently needed.

A Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis analysis to evaluate the quality of reporting of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction models after pancreatoduodenectomy: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Postoperative pancreatic fistula is a frequent and potentially lethal complication after pancreatoduodenectomy. Several models have been developed to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula risk. This study was performed to evaluate the quality of reporting of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction models after pancreatoduodenectomy using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) checklist that provides guidelines on reporting prediction models to enhance transparency and to help in the decision-making regarding the implementation of the appropriate risk models into clinical practice.

METHODS

Studies that described prediction models to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy were searched according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The TRIPOD checklist was used to evaluate the adherence rate. The area under the curve and other performance measures were extracted if reported. A quadrant matrix chart is created to plot the area under the curve against TRIPOD adherence rate to find models with a combination of above-average TRIPOD adherence and area under the curve.

RESULTS

In total, 52 predictive models were included (23 development, 15 external validation, 4 incremental value, and 10 development and external validation). No risk model achieved 100% adherence to the TRIPOD. The mean adherence rate was 65%. Most authors failed to report on missing data and actions to blind assessment of predictors. Thirteen models had an above-average performance for TRIPOD checklist adherence and area under the curve.

CONCLUSION

Although the average TRIPOD adherence rate for postoperative pancreatic fistula models after pancreatoduodenectomy was 65%, higher compared to other published models, it does not meet TRIPOD standards for transparency. This study identified 13 models that performed above average in TRIPOD adherence and area under the curve, which could be the appropriate models to be used in clinical practice.

Postoperative Serum Hyperamylasemia Adds Sequential Value to the Fistula Risk Score in Predicting Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether postoperative serum hyperamylasemia (POH), with drain fluid amylase (DFA) and C-reactive protein (CRP), improves the Fistula Risk Score (FRS) accuracy in assessing the risk of a postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF).

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The FRS predicts POPF occurrence using intraoperative predictors with good accuracy but intrinsic limits.

METHODS

Outcomes of patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomies between 2016 and 2021 were evaluated across FRS-risk zones and POH occurrence. POH consists of serum amylase activity greater than the upper limit of normal (52 U/l), persisting within the first 48 hours postoperatively (postoperative day -POD- 1 and 2).

RESULTS

Out of 905 pancreaticoduodenectomies, some FRS elements, namely soft pancreatic texture (odds ratio (OR) 11.6), pancreatic duct diameter (OR 0.80), high-risk pathologic diagnosis (OR 1.54), but not higher blood loss (OR 0.99), were associated with POH. POH was an independent predictor of POPF, which occurred in 46.8% of POH cases ( P <0.001). Once POH occurs, POPF incidence rises from 3.8% to 42.9%, 22.9% to 41.7%, and 48.9% to 59.2% in patients intraoperatively classified at low, moderate and high FRS risk, respectively. The predictive ability of multivariable models adding POD 1 drain fluid amylase, POD 1-2 POH and POD 3 C-reactive protein to the FRS showed progressively and significantly higher accuracy (AUC FRS=0.82, AUC FRS-DFA=0.85, AUC FRS-DFA-POH=0.87, AUC FRS-DFA-POH-CRP=0.90, DeLong always P <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

POPF risk assessment should follow a dynamic process. The stepwise retrieval of early, postoperative biological markers improves clinical risk stratification by increasing the granularity of POPF risk estimates and affords a possible therapeutic window before the actual morbidity of POPF occurs.

Pancreatic Fistulas: Current Evidence and Strategy-A Narrative Review

Pancreatic fistulas are highly feared complications following surgery on or near the pancreas, abdominal trauma, or severe inflammation. These fistulas arise from leaks in the pancreatic ductal system, leading to various complications such as abscesses, delayed gastric emptying, and hemorrhage. Severe cases present with sepsis or organ failure, dramatically increasing mortality and morbidity. Risk factors include smoking, high BMI, male gender, age, and surgery-related factors like prolonged operation time and non-ligation of the main pancreatic duct. Therefore, treatment options and preventive measurements have become a hot topic in recent years. Studies have investigated the use of fibrin sealants, different closure methods, and less invasive surgical techniques. Treatment options consist of conservative measurements and the use of percutaneous drainage, prophylactic transpapillary stenting, and surgery in severe cases. As EUS has become widely available, transmural stenting started to influence the management of pancreatic fluid collections (PFCs). However, studies on its use for the management of pancreatic fistulas are lacking. Medical treatment options like somatostatin analogs and pasireotide have been investigated but yielded mixed results.

Current Perioperative Care in Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Step-by-Step Surgical Roadmap from First Visit to Discharge

Pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is a mainstay in the management of periampullary tumors. Treatment algorithms increasingly employ a multimodal strategy, which includes neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies. However, the successful treatment of a patient is contingent on the execution of a complex operation, whereby minimizing postoperative complications and optimizing a fast and complete recovery are crucial to the overall success. In this setting, risk reduction and benchmarking the quality of care are essential frameworks through which modern perioperative PD care must be delivered. The postoperative course is primarily influenced by pancreatic fistulas, but other patient- and hospital-associated factors, such as frailty and the ability to rescue from complications, also affect the outcomes. A comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing surgical outcomes allows the clinician to risk stratify the patient, thereby facilitating a frank discussion of the morbidity and mortality of PD. Further, such an understanding allows the clinician to practice based on the most up-to-date evidence. This review intends to provide clinicians with a roadmap to the perioperative PD pathway. We review key considerations in the pre-, intra-, and post-operative periods.

Prediction of postoperative pancreatic fistula and pancreatitis after pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy: A review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the leading cause of morbidity and early mortality in patients undergoing pancreatic resection. In addition, recent studies have identified postoperative acute pancreatitis (POAP) as an independent contributor to morbidity. Most perioperative mitigation strategies experimented for POPF have been shown to be in vain with no consensus on the best perioperative management. Clinical prediction models have been developed with the hope of identifying high POPF risk patients with the leading idea of finding subpopulations possibly benefiting from pre-existing or novel mitigation strategies. The aim of this review was to map out the existing prediction modeling studies to better understand the current stage of POPF prediction modeling, and the methodology behind them.

METHODS

A narrative review of the existing POPF prediction model studies was performed. Studies published before September 2022 were included.

RESULTS

While the number of POPF prediction models for pancreatoduodenectomy has increased, none of the currently existing models stand out from the crowd. For distal pancreatectomy, two unique POPF prediction models exist, but due to their freshness, no further external validation or adoption in clinics or research has been reported. There seems to be a lack of adherence to correct methodology or reporting guidelines in most of the studies, which has rendered external validity-if assessed-low. Few of the most recent studies have demonstrated preoperative assessment of pancreatic aspects from computed tomography (CT) scans to provide relatively strong predictors of POPF.

CONCLUSIONS

Main goal for the future would be to reach a consensus on the most important POPF predictors and prediction model. At their current state, few models have demonstrated adequate transportability and generalizability to be up to the task. Better understanding of POPF pathophysiology and the possible driving force of acute inflammation and POAP might be required before such a prediction model can be accessed.

Development of a Pancreatic Fistula Prediction Model After Pancreaticoduodenectomy Based on a Decision Tree and Random Forest Algorithm

BACKGROUND

The incidence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is high. We sought to develop a POPF prediction model based on a decision tree (DT) and random forest (RF) algorithm after PD and to explore its clinical value.

METHODS

The case data of 257 patients who underwent PD in a tertiary general hospital from 2013 to 2021 were retrospectively collected in China. The RF model was used to select features by ranking the importance of variables, and both algorithms were used to build the prediction model after automatic adjustment of parameters by setting the respective hyperparameter intervals and resampling as a 10-fold cross-validation method, etc. The prediction model's performance was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and the area under curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Postoperative pancreatic fistula occurred in 56 cases (56/257, 21.8%). The DT model had an AUC of .743 and an accuracy of .840, while the RF model had an AUC of .977 and an accuracy of .883. The DT plot visualized the process of inferring the risk of pancreatic fistula from the DT model on independent individuals. The top 10 important variables were selected for ranking in the RF variable importance ranking.

CONCLUSION

This study successfully developed a DT and RF algorithm for the POPF prediction model, which can be used as a reference for clinical health care professionals to optimize treatment strategies to reduce the incidence of POPF.

Surgical management of severe pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy: a comparison of early versus late rescue pancreatectomy

Background

Rescue pancreatectomy for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is associated with high mortality. However, in-depth literature is scarce and hard to interpret. This study aimed to evaluate the indications, timing and perioperative outcomes of rescue pancreatectomy for severe POPF after PD.

Methods

Retrospective single-centre study from all consecutive patients (2008–2020) with POPF-C after PD (ISGPS 2016 definition). Major morbidity and mortality during hospitalization or within 90 days after index surgery were evaluated. Time from index surgery to rescue pancreatectomy was dichotomized in early and late (≤ 11 versus > 11 days).

Results

From 1076 PDs performed, POPF-B/C occurred in 190 patients (17.7%) of whom 53 patients (4.9%) with POPF-C were included. Mortality after early rescue pancreatectomy did not differ significantly compared to late rescue pancreatectomy (13.6% versus 35.3%; p = 0.142). Timing of a rescue pancreatectomy did not change significantly during the study period: 11 (IQR, 8–14) (2008–2012) versus 14 (IQR, 7–33) (2013–2016) versus 8 days (IQR, 6–11) (2017–2020) (p = 0.140). Over time, the mortality in patients with POPF grade C decreased from 43.5% in 2008–2012 to 31.6% in 2013–2016 up to 0% in 2017–2020 (p = 0.014). However, mortality rates after rescue pancreatectomy did not differ significantly: 31.3% (2008–2012) versus 28.6% (2013–2016) versus 0% (2017–2020) (p = 0.104).

Conclusions

Rescue pancreatectomy for severe POPF is associated with high mortality, but an earlier timing might favourably influence the mortality. Hypothetically, this could be of value for pre-existent vulnerable patients. These findings must be carefully interpreted considering the sample sizes and differences among subgroups by patient selection.

The Impact of CT-Assessed Liver Steatosis on Postoperative Complications After Pancreaticoduodenectomy for Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Liver steatosis (LS) has been increasingly described in preoperative imaging of patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). The aim of this study was to assess the impact of preoperative LS on complications after PD and identify possible contributors to LS development in this specific cohort.

METHODS

Pancreatic head adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients scheduled for PD, with preoperative CT-imaging available were included in the study. LS was defined as mean liver density lower than 45 Hounsfield units. Patients showing preoperative LS were matched for patient age, gender, BMI, ASA score, neoadjuvant treatment, and vascular and multivisceral resections, based on propensity scores in a 1:2 ratio to patients with no LS. The primary outcome was postoperative complication severity at 90 days as measured by the comprehensive complication index (CCI) RESULTS: Overall, 247 patients were included in the study. Forty-three (17%) patients presented with LS at preoperative CT-scan. After matching, the LS group included 37 patients, whereas the non-LS group had 74 patients. LS patients had a higher mean (SD) CCI, 29.7 (24.5) versus 19.5 (22.5), p = 0.035, and a longer length of hospital stay, median [IQR] 12 [8-26] versus 8 [7-13] days, p = 0.006 compared with non-LS patients. On multivariate analysis, variables independently associated with CCI were: LS (16% increase, p = 0.048), male sex (19% increase, p = 0.030), ASA score ≥ 3 (26% increase, p = 0.002), fistula risk score (FRS) (28% increase for each point of FRS, p = 0.001) and vascular resection (20% increase, p = 0.019).

CONCLUSION

Preliminary evidence suggests that preoperative LS assessed by CT-scan influences complication severity in patients undergoing PD for PDAC.

Pure biliary leak vs. pancreatic fistula associated: non-identical twins following pancreatoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Biliary leak (BL) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) may have diffrent severity depending on its association with postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF).

METHODS

Data of 2715 patients undergoing PD between 2011 and 2020 at two European third-level referral Centers for pancreatic surgery were retrospectively reviewed. These included BL incidences, grading, outcomes, specific treatments, and association with POPF.

RESULTS

BL occurred in 6% of patients undergoing PD. Among 143 BL patients, 47% had an associated POPF and 53% a pure BL. Major morbidity (64% vs 36%) and mortality (19% vs 4%) were higher in POPF-associated BL group (all P< 0.01). Day of BL onset was similar between groups (POD 2 vs 3; P = 0.2), while BL closure occurred earlier in pure BL (POD 12 vs 23; P < 0.01). Conservative treatment was more frequent (55% vs 15%; P < 0.01), and the rate of percutaneous and/or trans-hepatic drain placement was lower (30% vs 16%; P = 0.04) in pure BL group. Relaparotomy was more common in POPF-associated BL group (42% VS 17%; P < 0.01) but was performed earlier in pure BL (POD 2 vs 10; P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Pure BL represents a more benign entity, managed conservatively in half of the cases.

Postoperative serum hyperamylasemia (POH) predicts additional morbidity after pancreatoduodenectomy: It is not all about pancreatic fistula

BACKGROUND

The association between postoperative serum hyperamylasaemia (POH) and morbidity has been hypothesized but rarely explored once occurring with or without (POH-exclusive) a combined postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF).

METHODS

Analysis of patients who consecutively underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2016 to 2020. POH was defined as serum amylase activity greater than the institutional upper limit of normal (52 U/L), persisting within the first 48 hours postoperatively (postoperative day [POD] 1 and 2).

RESULTS

Among 852 patients, 15.8% developed POH-exclusive. Compared with patients without POH or POPF (64.3%), they showed a significantly higher postoperative burden (Clavien-Dindo ≥II: 52.6% vs 30.8%) with increased rates of bacteraemia (12.6% vs 6%), pleural effusion (13.3% vs 5.3%), postpancreatectomy haemorrhage (13.3% vs 7.5%), postpancreatectomy acute pancreatitis (PPAP) (10.3% vs 0%), and organ site infections (18.5% vs 10.9%; all P < .05). A total of 13.8% experienced POH with POPF leading to the worse outcome. The combined occurrence of POH with POPF led to a shorter median time to morbidity (3 PODs, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-3.7 vs 6 PODs, 95% CI 4.2-8; P < .001) than patients experiencing POPF-exclusive (5.9%). In all, 46.6% of POH patients developed POPF. Body mass index (BMI) (odds ratio [OR] 1.1), male sex (OR 2.1), increased drain fluid amylase on POD 1 (OR 1.001), and increased C-reactive protein (OR 1.01) were independent risk factors for POPF once POH has occurred.

CONCLUSION

POH has relevant postoperative clinical implications, independently from POPF occurrence. Developing POH with POPF leads to an earlier onset of higher postoperative burdens. Once POH is diagnosed, risk factors for additional POPF could identify patients who may benefit from additional surveillance, specific drains protocols, and preventive strategies.

Total pancreatectomy with intraportal islet autotransplantation for pancreatic malignancies: a literature overview

INTRODUCTION

'Brittle Diabetes' (BD) is a life-threatening metabolic complication after total pancreatectomy (TP). More than 500 Intraportal islet autotransplantation (IAT) have been performed to prevent this complication, with almost 70% insulin independence after 3 years. Even when insulin independence was not achieved, IAT successfully prevented severe hypoglycemia. Currently, preliminary results for oncologic situations are promising, but their oncological outcomes are still a matter of debate.

AREAS COVERED

We performed a bibliographic research of the last 25 years of data. Articles published in English in peer-reviewed journals were retained. In France, auto- and allo-islet transplantation was recently recognized as a valuable treatment for BD by the national health authority. While accepted for benign diseases, the risk of tumor spreading after IAT in oncologic situations is a source of concern.

EXPERT OPINION

Preliminary results of IAT in oncological situations are very encouraging. So far, there is no evidence of tumor dissemination. In our opinion, to overcome BD TP with IAT for resectable pancreatic malignancies in patients with a higher risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula and extended pancreatic cancers can be safely performed. Diagnosis of malignancy should not be considered as an exclusion criterion for IAT.