Development and validation of a novel nomogram predicting 10-year actual survival after curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma

Development of an individualized model for predicting postoperative delirium in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common complication in older patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that adversely impacts clinical outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the risk factors for POD and to construct a predictive nomogram. Data for a total of 1481 older patients (training set: n=1109; validation set: n=372) who received liver resection for HCC were retrospectively retrieved from two prospective databases. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance. The rate of POD was 13.3% (148/1109) in the training set and 16.4% (61/372) in the validation set. Multivariate analysis of the training set revealed that factors including age, history of cerebrovascular disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, albumin level, and surgical approach had significant effects on POD. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) for the nomogram, incorporating the aforementioned predictors, was 0.798 (95% CI 0.752-0.843) and 0.808 (95% CI 0.754-0.861) for the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves of both sets showed a degree of agreement between the nomogram and the actual probability. DCA demonstrated that the newly established nomogram was highly effective for clinical decision-making. We developed and validated a nomogram with high sensitivity to assist clinicians in estimating the individual risk of POD in older patients with HCC.

Comparison of clinical outcome between laparoscopic and open hepatectomy of high difficulty score for hepatocellular carcinoma: a propensity score analysis

BACKGROUND

Laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) of high difficulty score is technically challenging. There is a lack of clinical evidence to support its applicability in terms of the long-term survival benefits. This study aims to compare clinical outcomes between LLR and the open liver resection of high difficulty score for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From 2010 to 2020, using Iwate criteria, 424 patients underwent liver resection of high difficulty score by the laparoscopic (n = 65) or open (n = 359) approach. Propensity score (PS) matching was performed between the two groups. Short-term and long-term outcomes were compared between PS-matched groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors affecting survival.

RESULTS

The laparoscopic group had significantly fewer severe complications (3% vs. 10.8%), and shorter median hospital stays (6 days vs. 8 days) than the open group. Meanwhile, the long-term oncological outcomes were comparable between the two groups, in terms of the tumor recurrence rate (40% vs. 46.1%), the 5-year overall survival rate (75.4% vs. 76.2%), and the 5-year recurrence-free survival rate (50.3% vs. 53.5%). The high preoperative serum alpha-fetoprotein level, multiple tumors, and severe postoperative complications were the independent poor prognostic factors associated with worse overall survival. The surgical approach (Laparoscopic vs. Open) did not influence the survival.

CONCLUSION

LLR of high difficulty score for selected patients with HCC has better short-term outcomes than the open approach. More importantly, it can achieve similar long-term survival outcomes as the open approach.

Baveno VII criteria identify varices needing treatment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma of different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages

BACKGROUND

Baveno VII criteria for predicting varices needing treatment (VNT) have not been tested in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) population. We evaluated Baveno VII consensus for VNT in HCC patients of different stages according to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages undergoing curative hepatectomy.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of patients with HCC. Patients underwent transient elastography examination before HCC treatment and received at least one upper endoscopic examination afterwards. Patients were prospectively followed for clinical events including VNT.

RESULTS

Six hundred and seventy-three patients (83.1% male, median age 62 years) with HCC of BCLC stage 0 (10%), A (57%), B (17%) and C (15%) were recruited and followed for 47 months. The median (range) LSM was 10.5 (6.9-20.4) kPa; 74% had LSM ≤ 20 kPa and 58% had platelet count ≥150 × 10/L, respectively. VNT occurred in 51 (7.6%) patients. In patients who fulfilled Baveno VII criteria, that is, LSM ≤ 20 kPa and platelet count above 150 × 10/L, only 11 (1.6%) patients had VNT. In all BCLC stages of HCC, the proportion of patients with VNT was below 5%, which support the validity and applicability of Baveno VII criteria in all BCLC stages of HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

The Baveno VII criteria are valid and applicable in HCC patients undergoing curative hepatectomy for selecting patients to undergo screening endoscopy for VNT. The validity was consistent across different BCLC stages of HCC.

Clinical prognosis and related molecular features of hepatitis B-associated adolescent and young adult hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Inattention has been given to the pathogenesis of adolescent and young adult (AYA) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Due to the more advanced tumor progression and poorer prognosis of AYA-HCC, together with a better tolerance ability, noncirrhotic background, and a stronger willingness to treat AYA-HCC, clinical and molecular biology studies are urgent and necessary, especially for those with hepatitis B infection.

METHODS

For clinical aspects, the overall survival, the recurrence-free survival, and the Cox analyses were performed. Then, functional analysis, gene clustering, metabolic-related analysis, immune infiltration and competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) construction were carried out using whole transcriptome sequencing technique.

RESULTS

Based on the clinical information of our HCC cohort, the overall survival and recurrence-free survival rates were worse in the AYA group than in the elderly group as previously described. According to our whole transcriptome sequencing results, functional analysis revealed that metabolism-related pathways as well as protein translation and endoplasmic reticulum processing were enriched. Then the hub metabolism-related genes were screened by metabolite-protein interactions (MPIs) and protein-protein interactions (PPIs). Fatty acid metabolism is a crucial component of metabolic pathways, abnormalities of which may be the reason for the worse prognosis of HBV-AYA HCC. Finally, the relationship of disrupted expression of metabolism-related genes with immune infiltration was also analyzed, and the lncRNA‒miRNA‒mRNA-related ceRNA network for HBV-AYA HCC was constructed, which may provide new cues for HBV-AHA HCC prevention.

CONCLUSION

The worse prognosis and recurrence rate of HBV-AYA HCC may be related to abnormalities in metabolism-related pathways, especially disorders of fatty acid metabolism.

A Predictive Nomogram of Early Recurrence for Patients with AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma Underwent Curative Resection

Background: Alpha-fetoprotein-negative (<20 ng/mL) hepatocellular carcinoma (AFP-NHCC) cannot be easily diagnosed in clinical practice, which may affect early treatment and prognosis. Furthermore, there are no reliable tools for the prediction of AFP-NHCC early recurrence that have been developed currently. The objective of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for AFP-NHCC and construct an individual prediction nomogram of early recurrence of these patients who underwent curative resection. Methods: A retrospective study of 199 patients with AFP-NHCC who had undergone curative resection and another 231 patients with AFP-positive HCC were included in case-controlled analyses. All AFP-NHCC patients were randomly divided into training and validation datasets at a ratio of 7:3. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were applied to identify the risk factors, based on which the predictive nomogram of early recurrence was constructed in the training dataset. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve was used to evaluate the predictive performance and discriminative ability of the nomogram, and the results were validated in the validation dataset. Results: Compared to AFP-positive patients, the AFP-negative group with lower values of laboratory parameters, lower tumor aggressiveness, and less malignant magnetic resonance (MR) imaging features. AST (HR = 2.200, p = 0.009), tumor capsule (HR = 0.392, p = 0.017), rim enhancement (HR = 2.825, p = 0.002) and TTPVI (HR = 5.511, p < 0.001) were independent predictors for early recurrence of AFP-NHCC patients. The nomogram integrated these independent predictors and achieved better predictive performance with AUCs of 0.89 and 0.85 in the training and validation datasets, respectively. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis both demonstrated better predictive efficacy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. Conclusions: The nomogram based on the multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis presented accurate individual prediction for early recurrence of AFP-NHCC patients after surgery. This nomogram could assist physicians in personalized treatment decision-making for patients with AFP-NHCC.

Nomograms for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence and Overall Postoperative Patient Survival

Background

Few studies have focused on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0‒C in terms of early recurrence and 5-years overall survival (OS). We sought to develop nomograms for predicting 5-year OS and early recurrence after curative resection of HCC, based on a clinicopathological‒radiological model. We also investigated whether different treatment methods influenced the OS of patients with early recurrence.

Methods

Retrospective data, including clinical pathology, radiology, and follow-up data, were collected for 494 patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy. Nomograms estimating OS and early recurrence were constructed using multivariate Cox regression analysis, based on the random survival forest (RSF) model. We evaluated the discrimination and calibration abilities of the nomograms using concordance indices (C-index), calibration curves, and Kaplan‒Meier curves. OS curves of different treatments for patients who had recurrence within 2 years after curative surgery were depicted and compared using the Kaplan–Meier method and the log-rank test.

Results

Multivariate Cox regression revealed that BCLC stage, non-smooth margin, maximum tumor diameter, age, aspartate aminotransferase levels, microvascular invasion, and differentiation were prognostic factors for OS and were incorporated into the nomogram with good predictive performance in the training (C-index: 0.787) and testing cohorts (C-index: 0.711). A nomogram for recurrence-free survival was also developed based on four prognostic factors (BCLC stage, non-smooth margin, maximum tumor diameter, and microvascular invasion) with good predictive performance in the training (C-index: 0.717) and testing cohorts (C-index: 0.701). In comparison to the BCLC staging system, the C-index (training cohort: 0.787 vs. 0.678, 0.717 vs. 0.675; external cohort 2: 0.748 vs. 0.624, 0.729 vs. 0.587 respectively, for OS and RFS; external cohort1:0.716 vs. 0.627 for RFS, all p value<0.05), and model calibration curves all showed improved performance. Patients who underwent surgery after tumor recurrence had a higher reOS than those who underwent comprehensive treatments and supportive care.

Conclusions

The nomogram, based on clinical, pathological, and radiological factors, demonstrated good accuracy in estimating OS and recurrence, which can guide follow-up and treatment of individual patients. Reoperation may be the best option for patients with recurrence in good condition.

Prediction of post-hepatectomy liver failure and long-term prognosis after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma using liver stiffness measurement

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is the main cause of perioperative death after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection. PHLF occurrence is related to both the hepatectomy volume and the degree of cirrhosis. Accurate preoperative assessment of the degree of cirrhosis may aid in reducing the incidence of PHLF. Several studies have shown that the liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is well correlated with cirrhosis. This study explored the relationship between LSM and PHLF occurrence after radical HCC resection and the effect on long-term prognosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 164 patients who underwent radical HCC resection at our center from January 2017 to January 2020. The related postoperative PHLF factors were analyzed. The LSM threshold in postoperative PHLF was calculated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Patients were grouped according to different LSM thresholds and survival analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Forty-six patients experienced PHLF, of whom 19, 21, and 6 were classified as grades A, B, and C, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that LSM was an independent risk factor for PHLF after HCC surgery (OR = 1.174, P < 0.000). LSM (OR = 1.219, P < 0.000) and intraoperative bleeding (OR = 1.001, P = 0.047) were risk factors for grade B-C PHLF. The LSM threshold that predicted PHLF occurrence was 17.9 kPa (AUC = 0.831, P < 0.000) and 24.5 kPa (AUC = 0.867, P < 0.000) for grade B-C PHLF. LSM was correlated with PHLF severity (r = 0.439, P < 0.001). The median survival times were 32 vs 26 months (P = 0.016) for patients with LSM ≤ 17.9 kPa vs those with LSM > 17.9 kPa and 28 vs 24 months (P = 0.004) for patients with LSM ≤ 24.5 kPa vs those with LSM > 24.5 kPa.

CONCLUSION

LSM is related to PHLF occurrence in patients undergoing HCC resection; a higher LSM is associated with the occurrence of more severe PHLF after surgery. In addition, LSM may aid in predicting long-term survival after liver resection in patients with HCC.