Implications of clinical risk score to predict outcomes of liver-confined metastasis of colorectal cancer

Long-term survival in colorectal liver metastasis

INTRODUCTION

Liver resection is the best treatment option for patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM). A 10-year follow-up can reflect the true curative potential of resection. This retrospective study investigated factors for long-term survival of CRLM patients.

METHOD

Data of patients who underwent liver resection for CRLM without extrahepatic disease from 1990 to 2012 at our hospital were reviewed. Patients who survived for > 10 years were compared with those who survived for < 10 years.

RESULTS

Totally, 315 patients were included in the study. They were divided into 2 groups: < 10-year group and > 10-year group. Patients in the < 10-year group had more tumor nodules (P = 0.016), more bilobar involvement (P = 0.004), narrower resection margin (P < 0.001), and worse disease-free and overall survival (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, low preoperative hemoglobin level, large number of tumor nodules, and bilobar involvement were poor prognostic factors for overall survival, while adjuvant chemotherapy was a favorable factor. Further analysis of patients with bilobar disease showed that perioperative blood transfusion was a poor prognostic factor for overall survival while adjuvant chemotherapy was a favorable one. In patients with multiple bilobar tumor nodules, adjuvant chemotherapy had a positive impact on disease-free survival and overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who survived for > 10 years after liver resection for CRLM tended to have normal preoperative hemoglobin level, unilobar disease, fewer tumor nodules, and have received adjuvant chemotherapy. Adjuvant chemotherapy favorably affected long-term survival of CRLM patients.

A Comprehensive Prognostic Model for Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastasis Recurrence After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

Background

For patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLMs), it is important to stratify patients according to the risk of recurrence. This study aimed to validate the predictive value of some clinical, imaging, and pathology biomarkers and develop an operational prognostic model for patients with CRLMs with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) before the liver resection.

Methods

Patients with CRLMs accompanied with primary lesion and liver metastases lesion resection were enrolled into this study. A nomogram based on independent risk factors was identified by Kaplan–Meier analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. The predictive ability was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Calibration plot were also used to explore the consistency between prediction and reality.

Results

A total of 118 patients were enrolled into the study. Multivariable Cox analysis found that histopathological growth patterns (HGPs) [Hazard Rate (HR) = 2.130], radiology response (stable disease vs. partial response, HR = 2.207; progressive disease vs. partial response, HR = 3.824), lymph node status (HR = 1.442), and age (HR = 0.576) were independent risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS) (p < 0.05). Corresponding nomogram was constructed on the basis of the above factors, demonstrating that scores ranging from 5 to 11 presented better prognosis than the scores of 0–4 (median DFS = 14.3 vs. 4.9 months, p < 0.0001). The area under ROC curves of the model for 1-, 2-, and 3-year DFS were 0.754, 0.705, and 0.666, respectively, and DCA confirmed that the risk model showed more clinical benefits than clinical risk score. Calibration plot for the probability of DFS at 1 or 3 years verified an optimal agreement between prediction and actual observation. In the course of our research, compared with pure NACT, a higher proportion of desmoplastic HGP (dHGP) was detected in patients treated with NACT plus cetuximab (p = 0.030), and the use of cetuximab was an independent factor for decreased replacement HGP (rHGP) and increased dHGP (p = 0.049).

Conclusion

Our model is concise, comprehensive, and high efficient, which may contribute to better predicting the prognosis of patients with CRLMs with NACT before the liver resection. In addition, we observed an unbalanced distribution of HGPs as well.

Preoperative chemotherapy in colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastasis

The response to preoperative chemotherapy is useful for predicting prognosis in unresectable and resectable disease. However, the prognostic benefit of chemotherapy prior to hepatectomy in patients with colorectal carcinoma and resectable or marginally resectable liver metastases remains unclear. The present study investigated the effect of preoperative chemotherapy on the prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer and resectable or marginally resectable synchronous liver metastasis. A total of 106 patients were retrospectively reviewed, who underwent hepatectomy for colorectal metastasis. The prognosis of 64 patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) were compared with the 42 patients who did not (non-NAC). Furthermore, a total of 43 patients who responded to chemotherapy were compared with the 21 who did not. Preoperative chemotherapy was administered for 5.7 months, wherein 50 patients (78%) received a single regimen, and 54 (84%) received oxaliplatin. There were more patients with <3 metastases and maximum diameters <5 cm in the non-NAC group. The median survival time was 86.0 and 71.6 months in the NAC and non-NAC groups, respectively (P=0.33). Subgroup analysis on the basis of tumor size and number showed no prognostic differences between the two groups. The median survival time was longer in responders than in non-responders (85 vs. 56 months; P=0.01). However, the median relapse-free survival was equivalent in both groups (16.4 and 10.7 months). Preoperative chemotherapy did not prolong survival. Furthermore, it did not prevent recurrence, even in clinical responders. Therefore, it should not be routinely offered to patients with resectable liver metastasis before their hepatectomy.

Personalizing prognosis in colorectal cancer: A systematic review of the quality and nature of clinical prognostic tools for survival outcomes

Integrating diverse types of prognostic information into accurate, individualized estimates of outcome in colorectal cancer is challenging. Significant heterogeneity in colorectal cancer prognostication tool quality exists. Methodology is incompletely or inadequately reported. Evaluations of the internal or external validity of the prognostic model are rarely performed. Prognostication tools are important devices for patient management, but tool reliability is compromised by poor quality. Guidance for future development of prognostication tools in colorectal cancer is needed.

Cutaneous Angiosarcoma of Head and Neck: A New Predictive Score for Locoregional Metastasis

OBJECTIVES

Cutaneous angiosarcoma of head and neck (cAS-HN) is a malignant neoplasm with deficient data on prognostic factors. The aim of this study is to present our monocenter database on cAS-HN so far and a new predictive score for locoregional metastasis (LRM).

METHODS

Retrospectively, tumor characteristics and outcome of 103 consecutive patients with cAS-HN were analyzed. The main predictors of LRM (identified by univariate and multivariate statistics) were combined to a LRM risk score. The prognostic values of stratification into high-, medium-, and low-risk groups concerning disease-specific survival (DSS), distant metastasis (DM), and progression-free survival (PFS) were evaluated.

RESULTS

LRM (n = 29) and control (n = 74) groups differed significantly concerning several tumor characteristics and outcome (DM, PFS, and DSS). Patients developing LRM showed 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates of 32%, 16%, and 11% (mean DSS time of 36.7 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 20.5-52.8]) compared to 81%, 73%, and 69% (mean DSS time of 292.4 months [95% CI 208.4-376.5]) in controls without LRM (P < .001). The main predictors were American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, tumor extent, and origin of the primary tumor. The LRM risk score revealed significant higher values for the LRM group [7.14 (SD 1.46) vs 4.88 (SD 1.89), P < .001]. The high-risk group showed significantly higher risk for DM and more unfavorable DSS and PFS.

CONCLUSION

The LRM risk score is a simple way to estimate the risk for LRM and DM, to stage patients, and to determine treatment options.

Prognosis according to histochemical analysis of liver metastases removed at liver resection

BACKGROUND

Liver metastases occur in 40-50 per cent of patients with colorectal cancer and determine long-term survival. The aim of this study was to examine the immunological architecture of colorectal liver metastases and its impact on patient survival.

METHODS

Specimens from patients with colorectal liver metastases were stained with haematoxylin and eosin and Masson trichrome, immunostained for α-smooth muscle actin, CD4, CD45RO and CD8, and analysed by flow cytometry. In addition to histomorphological evaluation, immunohistochemically stained sections were analysed for cell numbers in the tumour area, infiltrative margin and distant liver stroma separately. These findings were correlated with clinical data and patient outcome.

RESULTS

Tumour containment by a fibrotic capsule around liver metastases was observed in 37·8 per cent of 201 patients and was prognostic for improved survival (median (s.e.) survival 64 (6) and 31 (4) months for patients with capsule and no capsule respectively; P < 0·001) and independently led to higher R0 resection rates (P = 0·040). In multivariable analysis, CD45RO(+) cell infiltration at the peritumoral margin with low CD45RO(+) cell infiltration in the distant liver stroma (P = 0·001) and fibrotic capsule formation (P = 0·008) both independently prolonged patient survival. Using these two factors, a cellular immune score was designed and shown to stratify patient survival in test and validation samples (both P < 0·001).

CONCLUSION

Fibrotic capsule formation and localized cell infiltration of colorectal liver metastases by CD45RO(+) cells were related to prolonged patient survival. Based on these immunological criteria a cellular immune score was developed to stratify patients according to prognosis.