Artificial intelligence model to predict pregnancy and multiple pregnancy risk following in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET)

Comparative study of machine learning approaches integrated with genetic algorithm for IVF success prediction

INTRODUCTION

IVF is a widely-used assisted reproductive technology with a consistent success rate of around 30%, and improving this rate is crucial due to emotional, financial, and health-related implications for infertile couples. This study aimed to develop a model for predicting IVF outcome by comparing five machine-learning techniques.

METHOD

The research approached five prominent machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Recursive Partitioning and Regression Trees (RPART), and AdaBoost, in the context of IVF success prediction. The study also incorporated GA as a feature selection method to enhance the predictive models' robustness.

RESULTS

Findings demonstrate that AdaBoost, particularly when combined with GA feature selection, achieved the highest accuracy rate of 89.8%. Using GA, Random Forest also demonstrated strong performance, achieving an accuracy rate of 87.4%. Genetic Algorithm significantly improved the performance of all classifiers, emphasizing the importance of feature selection. Ten crucial features, including female age, AMH, endometrial thickness, sperm count, and various indicators of oocyte and embryo quality, were identified as key determinants of IVF success.

CONCLUSION

These findings underscore the potential of machine learning and feature selection techniques to assist IVF clinicians in providing more accurate predictions, enabling tailored treatment plans for each patient. Future research and validation can further enhance the practicality and reliability of these predictive models in clinical IVF practice.

Patient-Centric In Vitro Fertilization Prognostic Counseling Using Machine Learning for the Pragmatist

Although in vitro fertilization (IVF) has become an extremely effective treatment option for infertility, there is significant underutilization of IVF by patients who could benefit from such treatment. In order for patients to choose to consider IVF treatment when appropriate, it is critical for them to be provided with an accurate, understandable IVF prognosis. Machine learning (ML) can meet the challenge of personalized prognostication based on data available prior to treatment. The development, validation, and deployment of ML prognostic models and related patient counseling report delivery require specialized human and platform expertise. This review article takes a pragmatic approach to review relevant reports of IVF prognostic models and draws from extensive experience meeting patients' and providers' needs with the development of data and model pipelines to implement validated ML models at scale, at the point-of-care. Requirements of using ML-based IVF prognostics at point-of-care will be considered alongside clinical ML implementation factors critical for success. Finally, we discuss health, social, and economic objectives that may be achieved by leveraging combined human expertise and ML prognostics to expand fertility care access and advance health and social good.

The association between female age and pregnancy outcomes in patients receiving first elective single embryo transfer cycle: a retrospective cohort study

This study aimed to explore the relationship between female age and pregnancy outcomes in patients undergoing their first elective single embryo transfer (eSET) of in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles. The retrospective cohort study encompassed 7089 IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) patients of the Reproductive Medicine Center, Henan Provincial Peoples' Hospital of China, from September 1, 2016, to May 31, 2022. Patients all received the first eSET in their IVF/ICSI cycles. A generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to examine the the dose-response correlation between age and pregnancy outcomes, namely the clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) and ongoing pregnancy rate (OPR). Logistic regression model was employed to ascertain the correlation between the CPR/OPR and age. The study cohort has an average age of 30.74; 3843 patients got clinical pregnancy rate of 61.40% and ongoing pregnancy rate of 54.21%. The multiple pregnancy rate of is 1.24%. For patients aged 34 and above, the CPR decreased by 10% for every 1-year increase in age (adjusted OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.84-0.96, p < 0.0001). Similarly, the OPR decreased by 16% for every 1-year increase in age (adjusted OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.81-0.88, p < 0.0001). Patients aged 35-37 years had an acceptable OPR of 52.4% after eSET, with a low multiple pregnancy rate (1.1%). Pregnancy outcomes were significantly better in blastocyst cycles compared to cleavage embryo cycles, and this trend was more pronounced in older patients. There was a non-linear relationship between female age and pregnancy outcomes in patients undergoing their first eSET cycles. The clinical pregnancy rate and ongoing pregnancy rate decreased significantly with age, especially in women older than 34 years. For patients under 37 years old, single embryo transfer should be prioritized. For patients over 38 years old with available blastocysts, eSET is also recommended.

Post-natal gestational age assessment using targeted metabolites of neonatal heel prick and umbilical cord blood: A GARBH-Ini cohort study from North India

Background

Accurate assessment of gestational age (GA) and identification of preterm birth (PTB) at delivery is essential to guide appropriate post-natal clinical care. Undoubtedly, dating ultrasound sonography (USG) is the gold standard to ascertain GA, but is not accessible to the majority of pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), particularly in rural areas and small secondary care hospitals. Conventional methods of post-natal GA assessment are not reliable at delivery and are further compounded by a lack of trained personnel to conduct them. We aimed to develop a population-specific GA model using integrated clinical and biochemical variables measured at delivery.

Methods

We acquired metabolic profiles on paired neonatal heel prick (nHP) and umbilical cord blood (uCB) dried blood spot (DBS) samples (n = 1278). The master data set consists of 31 predictors from nHP and 24 from uCB after feature selection. These selected predictors including biochemical analytes, birth weight, and placental weight were considered for the development of population-specific GA estimation and birth outcome classification models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm.

Results

The nHP and uCB full model revealed root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.82-1.18) and of 1.26 (95% CI = 0.88-1.32) to estimate the GA as compared to actual GA, respectively. In addition, these models correctly estimated 87.9 to 92.5% of the infants within ±2 weeks of the actual GA. The classification models also performed as the best fit to discriminate the PTB from term birth (TB) infants with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.89 (95% CI = 0.84-0.94) for nHP and an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI = 0.85-0.95) for uCB.

Conclusion

The biochemical analytes along with clinical variables in the nHP and uCB data sets provide higher accuracy in predicting GA. These models also performed as the best fit to identify PTB infants at delivery.

Leveraging federated learning for boosting data privacy and performance in IVF embryo selection

PURPOSE

To study the effectiveness of federated learning in in vitro fertilization on embryo evaluation tasks.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort analysis. Two datasets were used in this study. The ploidy status dataset consisted of 10,065 embryo records, 3760 treatments, and 2479 infertile couples from 5 hospitals. The clinical pregnancy dataset consisted of 4495 embryo records, 4495 treatments, and 3704 infertile couples from 4 hospitals. Federated learning and the gradient boosting decision tree algorithm were utilized for modeling.

RESULTS

On the ploidy status dataset, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of our model trained with federated learning were 71.78%, 73.10%, 69.39%, 69.72%, and 73.46% for 5 hospitals respectively, showing an average increase of 2.5% compared to those of our model trained without federated learning. On the clinical pregnancy dataset, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of our model trained with federated learning were 72.03%, 56.77%, 61.63%, and 58.58% for 4 hospitals respectively, showing an average increase of 3.08%.

CONCLUSIONS

Federated learning can improve data privacy and data security and meanwhile improve the performance of embryo selection tasks by leveraging data from multiple sources. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of federated learning in embryo evaluation, and the results show the promise for future application.

Improving IVF Utilization with Patient-Centric Artificial Intelligence-Machine Learning (AI/ML): A Retrospective Multicenter Experience

Objectives: In vitro fertilization (IVF) has the potential to give babies to millions more people globally, yet it continues to be underutilized. We established a globally applicable and locally adaptable IVF prognostics report and framework to support patient-provider counseling and enable validated, data-driven treatment decisions. This study investigates the IVF utilization rates associated with the usage of machine learning, center-specific (MLCS) prognostic reports (the Univfy® report) in provider-patient pre-treatment and IVF counseling. Methods: We used a retrospective cohort comprising 24,238 patients with new patient visits (NPV) from 2016 to 2022 across seven fertility centers in 17 locations in seven US states and Ontario, Canada. We tested the association of Univfy report usage and first intra-uterine insemination (IUI) and/or first IVF usage (a.k.a. conversion) within 180 days, 360 days, and "Ever" of NPV as primary outcomes. Results: Univfy report usage was associated with higher direct IVF conversion (without prior IUI), with odds ratios (OR) 3.13 (95% CI 2.83, 3.46), 2.89 (95% CI 2.63, 3.17), and 2.04 (95% CI 1.90, 2.20) and total IVF conversion (with or without prior IUI), OR 3.41 (95% CI 3.09, 3.75), 3.81 (95% CI 3.49, 4.16), and 2.78 (95% CI 2.59, 2.98) in 180-day, 360-day, and Ever analyses, respectively; p < 0.05. Among patients with Univfy report usage, after accounting for center as a factor, older age was a small yet independent predictor of IVF conversion. Conclusions: Usage of a patient-centric, MLCS-based prognostics report was associated with increased IVF conversion among new fertility patients. Further research to study factors influencing treatment decision making and real-world optimization of patient-centric workflows utilizing the MLCS reports is warranted.

Predictors of success after in vitro fertilization

The last few decades have witnessed a rise in the global uptake of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment. To ensure optimal use of this technology, it is important for patients and clinicians to have access to tools that can provide accurate estimates of treatment success and understand the contribution of key clinical and laboratory parameters that influence the chance of conception after IVF treatment. The focus of this review was to identify key predictors of IVF treatment success and assess their impact in terms of live birth rates. We have identified 11 predictors that consistently feature in currently available prediction models, including age, duration of infertility, ethnicity, body mass index, antral follicle count, previous pregnancy history, cause of infertility, sperm parameters, number of oocytes collected, morphology of transferred embryos, and day of embryo transfer.

Application of artificial intelligence in gametes and embryos selection

Gamete and embryo quality are critical to the success rate of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) cycles, but there remains a lack of methods to accurately measure the quality of sperm, oocytes and embryos. The ability of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology to analyze large amounts of data, especially video and images, is particularly useful in gamete and embryo assessment and selection. The well-trained model has fast calculation speed and high accuracy, which can help embryologists to perform more objective gamete and embryo selection. Various artificial intelligence models have been developed for gamete and embryo assessment, some of which exhibit good performance. In this review, we summarize the latest applications of AI technology in semen analysis, as well as selection for sperm, oocyte and embryo, and discuss the existing problems and development directions of artificial intelligence in this field.