An exact steady state solution of Fisher's geometric model and other models

Allen Orr and the genetics of adaptation

Over most of the 20th century, evolutionary biologists predominantly subscribed to a strong form of "micro-mutationism," in which adaptive phenotypic divergence arises from allele frequency changes at many loci, each with a small effect on the phenotype. To be sure, there were well-known examples of large-effect alleles contributing to adaptation, yet such cases were generally regarded as atypical and unrepresentative of evolutionary change in general. In 1998, Allen Orr published a landmark theoretical paper in Evolution, which showed that both small- and large-effect mutations are likely to contribute to "adaptive walks" of a population to an optimum. Coupled with a growing set of empirical examples of large-effect alleles contributing to divergence (e.g., from QTL studies), Orr's paper provided a mathematical formalism that converted many evolutionary biologists from micro-mutationism to a more pluralistic perspective on the genetic basis of evolutionary change. We revisit the theoretical insights emerging from Orr's paper within the historical context leading up to 1998, and track the influence of this paper on the field of evolutionary biology through an examination of its citations over the last two decades and an analysis of the extensive body of theoretical and empirical research that Orr's pioneering paper inspired.

Match fitness landscapes for macromolecular interaction networks: Selection for translational accuracy and rate can displace tRNA-binding interfaces of non-cognate aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases

Advances in structural biology of aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (aaRSs) have revealed incredible diversity in how aaRSs bind their tRNA substrates. The causes of this diversity remain mysterious. We developed a new class of highly rugged fitness landscape models called match landscapes, through which genes encode the assortative interactions of their gene products through the complementarity and identifiability of their structural features. We used results from coding theory to prove bounds and equalities on fitness in match landscapes assuming additive interaction energies, macroscopic aminoacylation kinetics including proofreading, site-specific modifiers of interaction, and selection for translational accuracy in multiple, perfectly encoded site-types. Using genotypes based on extended Hamming codes we show that over a wide array of interface sizes and numbers of encoded cognate pairs, selection for translational accuracy alone is insufficient to displace the tRNA-binding interfaces of aaRSs. Yet, under combined selection for translational accuracy and rate, site-specific modifiers are selected to adaptively displace the tRNA-binding interfaces of non-cognate aaRS-tRNA pairs. We describe a remarkable correspondence between the lengths of perfect RNA (quaternary) codes and the modal sizes of small non-coding RNA families.

Generalization of the Ewens sampling formula to arbitrary fitness landscapes

In considering evolution of transcribed regions, regulatory sequences, and other genomic loci, we are often faced with a situation in which the number of allelic states greatly exceeds the size of the population. In this limit, the population eventually adopts a steady state characterized by mutation-selection-drift balance. Although new alleles continue to be explored through mutation, the statistics of the population, and in particular the probabilities of seeing specific allelic configurations in samples taken from the population, do not change with time. In the absence of selection, the probabilities of allelic configurations are given by the Ewens sampling formula, widely used in population genetics to detect deviations from neutrality. Here we develop an extension of this formula to arbitrary fitness distributions. Although our approach is general, we focus on the class of fitness landscapes, inspired by recent high-throughput genotype-phenotype maps, in which alleles can be in several distinct phenotypic states. This class of landscapes yields sampling probabilities that are computationally more tractable and can form a basis for inference of selection signatures from genomic data. Using an efficient numerical implementation of the sampling probabilities, we demonstrate that, for a sizable range of mutation rates and selection coefficients, the steady-state allelic diversity is not neutral. Therefore, it may be used to infer selection coefficients, as well as other evolutionary parameters from population data. We also carry out numerical simulations to challenge various approximations involved in deriving our sampling formulas, such as the infinite-allele limit and the “full connectivity” assumption inherent in the Ewens theory, in which each allele can mutate into any other allele. We find that, at least for the specific numerical examples studied, our theory remains sufficiently accurate even if these assumptions are relaxed. Thus our framework establishes both theoretical and practical foundations for inferring selection signatures from population-level genomic sequence samples.

Modeling evolution using the probability of fixation: history and implications

Many models of evolution calculate the rate of evolution by multiplying the rate at which new mutations originate within a population by a probability of fixation. Here we review the historical origins, contemporary applications, and evolutionary implications of these "origin-fixation" models, which are widely used in evolutionary genetics, molecular evolution, and phylogenetics. Origin-fixation models were first introduced in 1969, in association with an emerging view of "molecular" evolution. Early origin-fixation models were used to calculate an instantaneous rate of evolution across a large number of independently evolving loci; in the 1980s and 1990s, a second wave of origin-fixation models emerged to address a sequence of fixation events at a single locus. Although origin fixation models have been applied to a broad array of problems in contemporary evolutionary research, their rise in popularity has not been accompanied by an increased appreciation of their restrictive assumptions or their distinctive implications. We argue that origin-fixation models constitute a coherent theory of mutation-limited evolution that contrasts sharply with theories of evolution that rely on the presence of standing genetic variation. A major unsolved question in evolutionary biology is the degree to which these models provide an accurate approximation of evolution in natural populations.

Epistasis, pleiotropy, and the mutation load in sexual and asexual populations

Mutation may impose a substantial load on populations, which varies according to the reproductive mode of organisms. Over the past years, various authors used adaptive landscape models to predict the long-term effect of mutation on mean fitness; however, many of these studies assumed very weak mutation rates, so that at most one mutation segregates in the population. In this article, we derive several simple approximations (confirmed by simulations) for the mutation load at high mutation rate (U), using a general model that allows us to play with the number of selected traits (n), the degree of pleiotropy of mutations, and the shape of the fitness function (which affects the average sign and magnitude of epistasis among mutations). When mutations have strong fitness effects, the equilibrium fitness W¯ of sexuals and asexuals is close to e(-U); under weaker mutational effects, sexuals reach a different regime where W¯ is a simple function of U and of a parameter describing the shape of the fitness function. Contrarily to weak mutation results showing that W¯ is an increasing function of population size and a decreasing function of n, these parameters may have opposite effects in sexual populations at high mutation rate.

Fisher's geometric model of adaptation meets the functional synthesis: data on pairwise epistasis for fitness yields insights into the shape and size of phenotype space

The functional synthesis uses experimental methods from molecular biology, biochemistry and structural biology to decompose evolutionarily important mutations into their more proximal mechanistic determinants. However these methods are technically challenging and expensive. Noting strong formal parallels between R.A. Fisher's geometric model of adaptation and a recent model for the phenotypic basis of protein evolution, we sought to use the former to make inferences into the latter using data on pairwise fitness epistasis between mutations. We present an analytic framework for classifying pairs of mutations with respect to similarity of underlying mechanism on this basis, and also show that these data can yield an estimate of the number of mutationally labile phenotypes underlying fitness effects. We use computer simulations to explore the robustness of our approach to violations of analytic assumptions and analyze several recently published datasets. This work provides a theoretical complement to the functional synthesis as well as a novel test of Fisher's geometric model.

The nearly neutral and selection theories of molecular evolution under the fisher geometrical framework: substitution rate, population size, and complexity

The general theories of molecular evolution depend on relatively arbitrary assumptions about the relative distribution and rate of advantageous, deleterious, neutral, and nearly neutral mutations. The Fisher geometrical model (FGM) has been used to make distributions of mutations biologically interpretable. We explored an FGM-based molecular model to represent molecular evolutionary processes typically studied by nearly neutral and selection models, but in which distributions and relative rates of mutations with different selection coefficients are a consequence of biologically interpretable parameters, such as the average size of the phenotypic effect of mutations and the number of traits (complexity) of organisms. A variant of the FGM-based model that we called the static regime (SR) represents evolution as a nearly neutral process in which substitution rates are determined by a dynamic substitution process in which the population's phenotype remains around a suboptimum equilibrium fitness produced by a balance between slightly deleterious and slightly advantageous compensatory substitutions. As in previous nearly neutral models, the SR predicts a negative relationship between molecular evolutionary rate and population size; however, SR does not have the unrealistic properties of previous nearly neutral models such as the narrow window of selection strengths in which they work. In addition, the SR suggests that compensatory mutations cannot explain the high rate of fixations driven by positive selection currently found in DNA sequences, contrary to what has been previously suggested. We also developed a generalization of SR in which the optimum phenotype can change stochastically due to environmental or physiological shifts, which we called the variable regime (VR). VR models evolution as an interplay between adaptive processes and nearly neutral steady-state processes. When strong environmental fluctuations are incorporated, the process becomes a selection model in which evolutionary rate does not depend on population size, but is critically dependent on the complexity of organisms and mutation size. For SR as well as VR we found that key parameters of molecular evolution are linked by biological factors, and we showed that they cannot be fixed independently by arbitrary criteria, as has usually been assumed in previous molecular evolutionary models.

History can matter: non-Markovian behavior of ancestral lineages

Although most of the important evolutionary events in the history of biology can only be studied via interspecific comparisons, it is challenging to apply the rich body of population genetic theory to the study of interspecific genetic variation. Probabilistic modeling of the substitution process would ideally be derived from first principles of population genetics, allowing a quantitative connection to be made between the parameters describing mutation, selection, drift, and the patterns of interspecific variation. There has been progress in reconciling population genetics and interspecific evolution for the case where mutation rates are sufficiently low, but when mutation rates are higher, reconciliation has been hampered due to complications from how the loss or fixation of new mutations can be influenced by linked nonneutral polymorphisms (i.e., the Hill-Robertson effect). To investigate the generation of interspecific genetic variation when concurrent fitness-affecting polymorphisms are common and the Hill-Robertson effect is thereby potentially strong, we used the Wright-Fisher model of population genetics to simulate very many generations of mutation, natural selection, and genetic drift. This was done so that the chronological history of advantageous, deleterious, and neutral substitutions could be traced over time along the ancestral lineage. Our simulations show that the process by which a nonrecombining sequence changes over time can markedly deviate from the Markov assumption that is ubiquitous in molecular phylogenetics. In particular, we find tendencies for advantageous substitutions to be followed by deleterious ones and for deleterious substitutions to be followed by advantageous ones. Such non-Markovian patterns reflect the fact that the fate of the ancestral lineage depends not only on its current allelic state but also on gene copies not belonging to the ancestral lineage. Although our simulations describe nonrecombining sequences, we conclude by discussing how non-Markovian behavior of the ancestral lineage is plausible even when recombination rates are not low. As a result, we believe that increased attention needs to be devoted to the robustness of evolutionary inference procedures that rely upon the Markov assumption.

Molecular evolution, mutation size and gene pleiotropy: a geometric reexamination

The influence of phenotypic effects of genetic mutations on molecular evolution is not well understood. Neutral and nearly neutral theories of molecular evolution predict a negative relationship between the evolutionary rate of proteins and their functional importance; nevertheless empirical studies seeking relationships between evolutionary rate and the phenotypic role of proteins have not produced conclusive results. In particular, previous studies have not found the expected negative correlation between evolutionary rate and gene pleiotropy. Here, we studied the effect of gene pleiotropy and the phenotypic size of mutations on the evolutionary rate of genes in a geometrical model, in which gene pleiotropy was characterized by n molecular phenotypes that affect organismal fitness. For a nearly neutral process, we found a negative relationship between evolutionary rate and mutation size but pleiotropy did not affect the evolutionary rate. Further, for a selection model, where most of the substitutions were fixed by natural selection in a randomly fluctuating environment, we also found a negative relationship between evolutionary rate and mutation size, but interestingly, gene pleiotropy increased the evolutionary rate as √n. These findings may explain part of the disagreement between empirical data and traditional expectations.

On Discrete-Time Multiallelic Evolutionary Dynamics Driven by Selection

We revisit some problems arising in the context of multiallelic discrete-time evolutionary dynamics driven by fitness. We consider both the deterministic and the stochastic setups and for the latter both the Wright-Fisher and the Moran approaches. In the deterministic formulation, we construct a Markov process whose Master equation identifies with the nonlinear deterministic evolutionary equation. Then, we draw the attention on a class of fitness matrices that plays some role in the important matter of polymorphism: the class of strictly ultrametric fitness matrices. In the random cases, we focus on fixation probabilities, on various conditionings on nonfixation, and on (quasi)stationary distributions.