Genetic hitchhiking in spatially extended populations

Signatures of selective sweeps in continuous-space populations

Selective sweeps describe the process by which an adaptive mutation arises and rapidly fixes in the population, thereby removing genetic variation in its genomic vicinity. The expected signatures of selective sweeps are relatively well understood in panmictic population models, yet natural populations often extend across larger geographic ranges where individuals are more likely to mate with those born nearby. To investigate how such spatial population structure can affect sweep dynamics and signatures, we simulated selective sweeps in populations inhabiting a two-dimensional continuous landscape. The maximum dispersal distance of offspring from their parents can be varied in our simulations from an essentially panmictic population to scenarios with increasingly limited dispersal. We find that in low-dispersal populations, adaptive mutations spread more slowly than in panmictic ones, while recombination becomes less effective at breaking up genetic linkage around the sweep locus. Together, these factors result in a trough of reduced genetic diversity around the sweep locus that looks very similar across dispersal rates. We also find that the site frequency spectrum around hard sweeps in low-dispersal populations becomes enriched for intermediate-frequency variants, making these sweeps appear softer than they are. Furthermore, haplotype heterozygosity at the sweep locus tends to be elevated in low-dispersal scenarios as compared to panmixia, contrary to what we observe in neutral scenarios without sweeps. The haplotype patterns generated by these hard sweeps in low-dispersal populations can resemble soft sweeps from standing genetic variation that arose from substantially older alleles. Our results highlight the need for better accounting for spatial population structure when making inferences about selective sweeps.

The effects of inversion polymorphisms on patterns of neutral genetic diversity

The strong reduction in the frequency of recombination in heterozygotes for an inversion and a standard gene arrangement causes the arrangements to become partially isolated genetically, resulting in sequence divergence between them and changes in the levels of neutral variability at nucleotide sites within each arrangement class. Previous theoretical studies on the effects of inversions on neutral variability have assumed either that the population is panmictic or that it is divided into 2 populations subject to divergent selection. Here, the theory is extended to a model of an arbitrary number of demes connected by migration, using a finite island model with the inversion present at the same frequency in all demes. Recursion relations for mean pairwise coalescent times are used to obtain simple approximate expressions for diversity and divergence statistics for an inversion polymorphism at equilibrium under recombination and drift, and for the approach to equilibrium following the sweep of an inversion to a stable intermediate frequency. The effects of an inversion polymorphism on patterns of linkage disequilibrium are also examined. The reduction in effective recombination rate caused by population subdivision can have significant effects on these statistics. The theoretical results are discussed in relation to population genomic data on inversion polymorphisms, with an emphasis on Drosophila melanogaster. Methods are proposed for testing whether or not inversions are close to recombination-drift equilibrium, and for estimating the rate of recombinational exchange in heterozygotes for inversions; difficulties involved in estimating the ages of inversions are also discussed.

Isolation by distance in populations with power-law dispersal

Limited dispersal of individuals between generations results in isolation by distance, in which individuals further apart in space tend to be less related. Classic models of isolation by distance assume that dispersal distances are drawn from a thin-tailed distribution and predict that the proportion of the genome that is identical by descent between a pair of individuals should decrease exponentially with the spatial separation between them. However, in many natural populations, individuals occasionally disperse over very long distances. In this work, we use mathematical analysis and coalescent simulations to study the effect of long-range (power-law) dispersal on patterns of isolation by distance. We find that it leads to power-law decay of identity-by-descent at large distances with the same exponent as dispersal. We also find that broad power-law dispersal produces another, shallow power-law decay of identity-by-descent at short distances. These results suggest that the distribution of long-range dispersal events could be estimated from sequencing large population samples taken from a wide range of spatial scales.

Spatial structure alters the site frequency spectrum produced by hitchhiking

The reduction of genetic diversity due to genetic hitchhiking is widely used to find past selective sweeps from sequencing data, but very little is known about how spatial structure affects hitchhiking. We use mathematical modeling and simulations to find the unfolded site frequency spectrum left by hitchhiking in the genomic region of a sweep in a population occupying a 1D range. For such populations, sweeps spread as Fisher waves, rather than logistically. We find that this leaves a characteristic 3-part site frequency spectrum at loci very close to the swept locus. Very low frequencies are dominated by recent mutations that occurred after the sweep and are unaffected by hitchhiking. At moderately low frequencies, there is a transition zone primarily composed of alleles that briefly "surfed" on the wave of the sweep before falling out of the wavefront, leaving a spectrum close to that expected in well-mixed populations. However, for moderate-to-high frequencies, there is a distinctive scaling regime of the site frequency spectrum produced by alleles that drifted to fixation in the wavefront and then were carried throughout the population. For loci slightly farther away from the swept locus on the genome, recombination is much more effective at restoring diversity in 1D populations than it is in well-mixed ones. We find that these signatures of space can be strong even in apparently well-mixed populations with negligible spatial genetic differentiation, suggesting that spatial structure may frequently distort the signatures of hitchhiking in natural populations.

Extinction threshold and large population limit of a plant metapopulation model with recurrent extinction events and a seed bank component

We introduce a new model for plant metapopulations with a seed bank component, living in a fragmented environment in which local extinction events are frequent. This model is an intermediate between population dynamics models with a seed bank component, based on the classical Wright-Fisher model, and Stochastic Patch Occupancy Models (SPOMs) used in metapopulation ecology. Its main feature is the use of "ghost" individuals, which can reproduce but with a very strong selective disadvantage against "real" individuals, to artificially ensure a constant population size. We show the existence of an extinction threshold above which persistence of the subpopulation of "real" individuals is not possible, and investigate how the seed bank characteristics affect this extinction threshold. We also show the convergence of the model to a SPOM under an appropriate scaling, bridging the gap between individual-based models and occupancy models.

Normal tissue architecture determines the evolutionary course of cancer

Cancer growth can be described as a caricature of the renewal process of the tissue of origin, where the tissue architecture has a strong influence on the evolutionary dynamics within the tumor. Using a classic, well-studied model of tumor evolution (a passenger-driver mutation model) we systematically alter spatial constraints and cell mixing rates to show how tissue structure influences functional (driver) mutations and genetic heterogeneity over time. This approach explores a key mechanism behind both inter-patient and intratumoral tumor heterogeneity: competition for space. Time-varying competition leads to an emergent transition from Darwinian premalignant growth to subsequent invasive neutral tumor growth. Initial spatial constraints determine the emergent mode of evolution (Darwinian to neutral) without a change in cell-specific mutation rate or fitness effects. Driver acquisition during the Darwinian precancerous stage may be modulated en route to neutral evolution by the combination of two factors: spatial constraints and limited cellular mixing. These two factors occur naturally in ductal carcinomas, where the branching topology of the ductal network dictates spatial constraints and mixing rates.

Global adaptation complicates the interpretation of genome scans for local adaptation

Spatially varying selection promotes variance in allele frequencies, increasing genetic differentiation between the demes of a metapopulation. For that reason, outliers in the genome‐wide distribution of summary statistics measuring genetic differentiation, such as F_ST, are often interpreted as evidence for alleles that contribute to local adaptation. However, theoretical studies have shown that in spatially structured populations the spread of beneficial mutations with spatially uniform fitness effects can also induce transient genetic differentiation. In recent years, numerous empirical studies have suggested that such species‐wide, or global, adaptation makes a substantial contribution to molecular evolution. In this perspective, we discuss how commonly such global adaptation may influence the genome‐wide distribution of F_ST and generate genetic differentiation patterns, which could be mistaken for local adaptation. To illustrate this, we use forward‐in‐time population genetic simulations assuming parameters for the rate and strength of beneficial mutations consistent with estimates from natural populations. We demonstrate that the spread of globally beneficial mutations in parapatric populations may frequently generate F_ST outliers, which could be misinterpreted as evidence for local adaptation. The spread of beneficial mutations causes selective sweeps at flanking sites, so in some cases, the effects of global versus local adaptation may be distinguished by examining patterns of nucleotide diversity within and between populations in addition to F_ST. However, when local adaptation has been only recently established, it may be much more difficult to distinguish from global adaptation, due to less accumulation of linkage disequilibrium at flanking sites. Through our discussion, we conclude that a large fraction of F_ST outliers that are presumed to arise from local adaptation may instead be due to global adaptation.

Hitchhiking in space: Ancestry in adapting, spatially extended populations

Selective sweeps reduce neutral genetic diversity. In sexual populations, this "hitchhiking" effect is thought to be limited to the local genomic region of the sweeping allele. While this is true in panmictic populations, we find that in spatially extended populations the combined effects of many unlinked sweeps can affect patterns of ancestry (and therefore neutral genetic diversity) across the whole genome. Even low rates of sweeps can be enough to skew the spatial locations of ancestors such that neutral mutations that occur in an individual living outside a small region in the center of the range have virtually no chance of fixing in the population. The fact that nearly all ancestry rapidly traces back to a small spatial region also means that relatedness between individuals falls off very slowly as a function of the spatial distance between them.

Multiple Modes of Positive Selection Shaping the Patterns of Incomplete Selective Sweeps over African Populations of Drosophila melanogaster

It remains a challenge in evolutionary genetics to elucidate how beneficial mutations arise and propagate in a population and how selective pressures on mutant alleles are structured over space and time. By identifying "sweeping haplotypes (SHs)" that putatively carry beneficial alleles and are increasing (or have increased) rapidly in frequency, and surveying the geographic distribution of SH frequencies, we can indirectly infer how selective sweeps unfold in time and thus which modes of positive selection underlie those sweeps. Using population genomic data from African Drosophila melanogaster, we identified SHs from 37 candidate loci under selection. At more than half of loci, we identify single SHs. However, many other loci harbor multiple independent SHs, namely soft selective sweeps, either due to parallel evolution across space or a high beneficial mutation rate. At about a quarter of the loci, intermediate SH frequencies are found across multiple populations, which cannot be explained unless a certain form of frequency-dependent positive selection, such as heterozygote advantage, is invoked given the reasonable range of migration rates between African populations. At one locus, many independent SHs are observed over multiple populations but always together with ancestral haplotypes. This complex pattern is compatible with a large number of mutational targets in a gene and frequency-dependent selection on new variants. We conclude that very diverse modes of positive selection are operating at different sets of loci in D. melanogaster populations.

Estimating the parameters of background selection and selective sweeps in Drosophila in the presence of gene conversion

We used whole-genome resequencing data from a population of Drosophila melanogaster to investigate the causes of the negative correlation between the within-population synonymous nucleotide site diversity (π_S ) of a gene and its degree of divergence from related species at nonsynonymous nucleotide sites (K_A ). By using the estimated distributions of mutational effects on fitness at nonsynonymous and UTR sites, we predicted the effects of background selection at sites within a gene on π_S and found that these could account for only part of the observed correlation between π_S and K_A We developed a model of the effects of selective sweeps that included gene conversion as well as crossing over. We used this model to estimate the average strength of selection on positively selected mutations in coding sequences and in UTRs, as well as the proportions of new mutations that are selectively advantageous. Genes with high levels of selective constraint on nonsynonymous sites were found to have lower strengths of positive selection and lower proportions of advantageous mutations than genes with low levels of constraint. Overall, background selection and selective sweeps within a typical gene reduce its synonymous diversity to ∼75% of its value in the absence of selection, with larger reductions for genes with high K_A Gene conversion has a major effect on the estimates of the parameters of positive selection, such that the estimated strength of selection on favorable mutations is greatly reduced if it is ignored.

Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences

Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.

Convergent Evolution During Local Adaptation to Patchy Landscapes

Species often encounter, and adapt to, many patches of similar environmental conditions across their range. Such adaptation can occur through convergent evolution if different alleles arise in different patches, or through the spread of shared alleles by migration acting to synchronize adaptation across the species. The tension between the two reflects the constraint imposed on evolution by the underlying genetic architecture versus how effectively selection and geographic isolation act to inhibit the geographic spread of locally adapted alleles. This paper studies the balance between these two routes to adaptation in a model of continuous environments with patchy selection pressures. We address the following questions: How long does it take for a novel allele to appear in a patch where it is locally adapted through mutation? Or, through migration from another, already adapted patch? Which is more likely to occur, as a function of distance between the patches? What population genetic signal is left by the spread of migrant alleles? To answer these questions we examine the family structure underlying migration-selection equilibrium surrounding an already adapted patch, treating those rare families that reach new patches as spatial branching processes. A main result is that patches further apart than a critical distance will likely evolve independent locally adapted alleles; this distance is proportional to the spatial scale of selection ([Formula: see text], where σ is the dispersal distance and sm is the selective disadvantage of these alleles between patches), and depends linearly on log(sm/μ), where μ is the mutation rate. This provides a way to understand the role of geographic separation between patches in promoting convergent adaptation and the genomic signals it leaves behind. We illustrate these ideas using the convergent evolution of cryptic coloration in the rock pocket mouse, Chaetodipus intermedius, as an empirical example.

The Role of Standing Variation in Geographic Convergent Adaptation

The extent to which populations experiencing shared selective pressures adapt through a shared genetic response is relevant to many questions in evolutionary biology. In this article, we explore how standing genetic variation contributes to convergent genetic responses in a geographically spread population. Geographically limited dispersal slows the spread of each selected allele, hence allowing other alleles to spread before any one comes to dominate the population. When selectively equivalent alleles meet, their progress is substantially slowed, dividing the species range into a random tessellation, which can be well understood by analogy to a Poisson process model of crystallization. In this framework, we derive the geographic scale over which an allele dominates and the proportion of adaptive alleles that arise from standing variation. Finally, we explore how negative pleiotropic effects of alleles can bias the subset of alleles that contribute to the species' adaptive response. We apply the results to the malaria-resistance glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase-deficiency alleles, where the large mutational target size makes it a likely candidate for adaptation from deleterious standing variation. Our results suggest that convergent adaptation may be common. Therefore, caution must be exercised when arguing that strongly geographically restricted alleles are the outcome of local adaptation. We close by discussing the implications of these results for ideas of species coherence and the nature of divergence between species.

The Red Queen in mitochondria: cyto-nuclear co-evolution, hybrid breakdown and human disease

Cyto-nuclear incompatibility, a specific form of Dobzhansky-Muller incompatibility caused by incompatible alleles between mitochondrial and nuclear genomes, has been suggested to play a critical role during speciation. Several features of the mitochondrial genome (mtDNA), including high mutation rate, dynamic genomic structure, and uniparental inheritance, make mtDNA more likely to accumulate mutations in the population. Once mtDNA has changed, the nuclear genome needs to play catch-up due to the intimate interactions between these two genomes. In two populations, if cyto-nuclear co-evolution is driven in different directions, it may eventually lead to hybrid incompatibility. Although cyto-nuclear incompatibility has been observed in a wide range of organisms, it remains unclear what type of mutations drives the co-evolution. Currently, evidence supporting adaptive mutations in mtDNA remains limited. On the other hand, it has been known that some mutations allow mtDNA to propagate more efficiently but compromise the host fitness (described as selfish mtDNA). Arms races between such selfish mtDNA and host nuclear genomes can accelerate cyto-nuclear co-evolution and lead to a phenomenon called the Red Queen Effect. Here, we discuss how the Red Queen Effect may contribute to the frequent observation of cyto-nuclear incompatibility and be the underlying driving force of some human mitochondrial diseases.

The effective founder effect in a spatially expanding population

The gradual loss of diversity and the establishment of clines in allele frequencies associated with range expansions are patterns observed in many species, including humans. These patterns can result from a series of founder events occurring as populations colonize previously unoccupied areas. We develop a model of an expanding population and, using a branching process approximation, show that spatial gradients reflect different amounts of genetic drift experienced by different subpopulations. We then use this model to measure the net average strength of the founder effect, and we demonstrate that the predictions from the branching process model fit simulation results well. We further show that estimates of the effective founder size are robust to potential confounding factors such as migration between subpopulations. We apply our method to data from Arabidopsis thaliana. We find that the average founder effect is approximately three times larger in the Americas than in Europe, possibly indicating that a more recent, rapid expansion occurred.

Evolution of virulence in fungal plant pathogens: exploiting fungal genomics to control plant disease

The propensity of a fungal pathogen to evolve virulence depends on features of its biology (e.g. mode of reproduction) and of its genome (e.g. amount of repetitive DNA). Populations of Leptosphaeria maculans, a pathogen of Brassica napus (canola), can evolve and overcome disease resistance bred into canola within three years of commercial release of a cultivar. Avirulence effector genes are key fungal genes that are complementary to resistance genes. In L. maculans these genes are embedded within inactivated transposable elements in genomic regions where they are readily mutated or deleted. The risk of resistance breakdown in the field can be minimised by monitoring disease severity of canola cultivars and virulence of fungal populations using high throughput molecular assays and by sowing canola cultivars with different resistance genes in subsequent years. This strategy has been exploited to avert yield losses due to blackleg disease in Australia.

Acceleration of evolutionary spread by long-range dispersal

The spreading of evolutionary novelties across populations is the central element of adaptation. Unless populations are well mixed (like bacteria in a shaken test tube), the spreading dynamics depend not only on fitness differences but also on the dispersal behavior of the species. Spreading at a constant speed is generally predicted when dispersal is sufficiently short ranged, specifically when the dispersal kernel falls off exponentially or faster. However, the case of long-range dispersal is unresolved: Although it is clear that even rare long-range jumps can lead to a drastic speedup--as air-traffic-mediated epidemics show--it has been difficult to quantify the ensuing stochastic dynamical process. However, such knowledge is indispensable for a predictive understanding of many spreading processes in natural populations. We present a simple iterative scaling approximation supported by simulations and rigorous bounds that accurately predicts evolutionary spread, which is determined by a trade-off between frequency and potential effectiveness of long-distance jumps. In contrast to the exponential laws predicted by deterministic "mean-field" approximations, we show that the asymptotic spatial growth is according to either a power law or a stretched exponential, depending on the tails of the dispersal kernel. More importantly, we provide a full time-dependent description of the convergence to the asymptotic behavior, which can be anomalously slow and is relevant even for long times. Our results also apply to spreading dynamics on networks with a spectrum of long-range links under certain conditions on the probabilities of long-distance travel: These are relevant for the spread of epidemics.

Contrasting genetic diversity patterns in two sister kelp species co-distributed along the coast of Brittany, France

We investigated patterns of genetic structure in two sister kelp species to explore how distribution width along the shore, zonation, latitudinal distribution and historical factors contribute to contrasting patterns of genetic diversity. We implemented a hierarchical sampling scheme to compare patterns of genetic diversity and structure in these two kelp species co-distributed along the coasts of Brittany (France) using a total of 12 microsatellites, nine for Laminaria hyperborea and 11 for Laminaria digitata, of which eight amplified in both species. The genetic diversity and connectivity of L. hyperborea populations were greater than those of L. digitata populations in accordance with the larger cross-shore distribution width along the coast and the greater depth occupied by L. hyperborea populations in contrast to L. digitata populations. In addition, marginal populations showed reduced genetic diversity and connectivity, which erased isolation-by-distance patterns in both species. As L. digitata encounters its southern range limit in southern Brittany (SBr) while L. hyperborea extends down to mid-Portugal, it was possible to distinguish the effect of habitat continuity from range edge effects. We found that L. digitata did not harbour high regional diversity at its southern edge, as expected in a typical rear edge, suggesting that refuges from the last glacial maximum for L. digitata were probably not located in SBr, but most likely further north. For both species, the highest levels of genetic diversity were found in the Iroise Sea and Morlaix Bay, the two regions in which they are being currently harvested. Preserving genetic diversity of these two foundation species in these areas should, thus, be a priority for the management of this resource in Brittany.

Speed of invasion of an expanding population by a horizontally transmitted trait

Range expansions are a ubiquitous phenomenon, leading to the spatial spread of genetic, ecological, and cultural traits. While some of these traits are advantageous (and hence selected), other, nonselected traits can also spread by hitchhiking on the wave of population expansion. This requires us to understand how the spread of a hitchhiking trait is coupled to the wave of advance of its host population. Here, we use a system of coupled Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (F-KPP) equations to describe the spread of a horizontally transmitted hitchhiking trait within a population as it expands. We extend F-KPP wave theory to the system of coupled equations to predict how the hitchhiking trait spreads as a wave within the expanding population. We show that the speed of this trait wave is controlled by an intricate coupling between the tip of the population and trait waves. Our analysis yields a new speed selection mechanism for coupled waves of advance and reveals the existence of previously unexpected speed transitions.

On the accumulation of deleterious mutations during range expansions

We investigate the effect of spatial range expansions on the evolution of fitness when beneficial and deleterious mutations cosegregate. We perform individual-based simulations of 1D and 2D range expansions and complement them with analytical approximations for the evolution of mean fitness at the edge of the expansion. We find that deleterious mutations accumulate steadily on the wave front during range expansions, thus creating an expansion load. Reduced fitness due to the expansion load is not restricted to the wave front, but occurs over a large proportion of newly colonized habitats. The expansion load can persist and represent a major fraction of the total mutation load for thousands of generations after the expansion. The phenomenon of expansion load may explain growing evidence that populations that have recently expanded, including humans, show an excess of deleterious mutations. To test the predictions of our model, we analyse functional genetic diversity in humans and find patterns that are consistent with our model.

New susceptibility locus for obesity and dyslipidaemia on chromosome 3q22.3

BACKGROUND

The muscle Ras (MRAS) gene resides on chromosome 3q22.3 and encodes a member of the membrane-associated Ras small GTPase proteins, which function as signal transducers in multiple processes including cell growth and differentiation. Its role in cardiovascular disease is not fully understood yet. In a preliminary study in heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia, we identified a locus linking the early onset of coronary artery disease (CAD) to chromosome 3q.22 and elected to sequence the MRAS gene using the MegaBACE DNA analysis system. In the present study, we investigated the association of seven single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at this locus with CAD and its dyslipidaemia-related risk traits in 4,650 Saudi angiographed individuals using TaqMan assays by the Applied Biosystems real-time Prism 7900HT Sequence Detection System.

RESULTS

Among the studied SNPs, rs6782181 (p = 0.017) and rs9818870T (p = 0.009) were associated with CAD following adjustment for sex, age and other confounding risk factors. The rs6782181_GG also conferred risk for obesity (1,764 cases vs. 2,586 controls) [1.16(1.03-1.30); p = 0.017], hypercholesterolaemia (1,686 vs. 2,744) [1.23(1.02-1.47); p = 0.019], hypertriglyceridaemia (1,155 vs. 3,496) [1.29(1.01-1.45); p = 0.043] and low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (lHDL-chol) levels (1,935 vs. 2,401) [1.15(1.02-1.30); p = 0.023] after adjustment. Additionally, rs253662_(CT+TT) [1.16(1.01-1.32); p = 0.030] was associated with lHDL-chol levels. Interestingly, rs253662 (p = 0.014) and rs6782181 (p = 0.019) were protective against acquiring high low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (hLDL-chol) levels (p = 0.014), while rs1720819 showed similar effects against CAD (p < 0.0001). More importantly, a 7-mer haplotype, ACCTGAC (χ2 = 7.66; p = 0.0056), constructed from the studied SNPs, its 6-mer derivative CCTGAC (χ2 = 6.90; p = 0.0086) and several other shorter derivatives conferred risk for obesity. hLDL-chol was weakly linked to CTAA (χ2 = 3.79; p = 0.052) and CCT (χ2 = 4.32; p = 0.038), while several other haplotypes were protective against both obesity and hLDL-chol level.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate that the genomic locus for the MRAS gene confers risk for CAD, obesity and dyslipidaemia and point to the possible involvement of other genes or regulatory elements at this locus, rather than changes in the M-Ras protein function, in these events.

The coalescent in boundary-limited range expansions

Habitat ranges of most species shift over time, for instance due to climate change, human intervention, or adaptation. These demographic changes often have drastic population genetic effects, such as a stochastic resampling of the gene pool through the "surfing" phenomenon. Most models assume that the speed of range expansions is only limited by the dispersal ability of the colonizing species and its reproductive potential. While such models of "phenotype-limited" expansions apply to species invasions, it is clear that many range expansions are limited rather by the slow motion of habitat boundaries, as driven for instance by global warming. Here, we develop a coalescent model to study the genetic impact of such "boundary-limited" range expansions. Our simulations and analysis show that the resulting loss of genetic diversity is markedly lower than in species invasions if large carrying capacities can be maintained up to the habitat frontier. Counterintuitively, we find that the total loss of diversity does not depend on the speed of the range expansion: Slower expansions have a smaller rate of loss, but also last longer. Boundary-limited range expansions exhibit a characteristic genetic footprint and should therefore be distinguished from range expansions limited only by intrinsic characteristics of the species.