Impact of tuberculosis treatment length and adherence under different transmission intensities

Exploring Hopf-bifurcations and endemic bubbles in a tuberculosis model with behavioral changes and treatment saturation

To manage risks and minimize the transmission of contagious diseases, individuals may reduce their contact with each other and take other precautions as much as possible in their daily lives and workplaces. As a result, the transmission of the infection reduces due to the behavioral changes. These behavioral changes are incorporated into models by introducing saturation in disease incidence. In this article, we propose and analyze a tuberculosis model that incorporates saturated exogenous reinfection and treatment. The stability analysis of the model's steady states is rigorously examined. We observe that the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point (EEP) are globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number (R0) is less than 1 and greater than 1, respectively, only when exogenous reinfection is not present (p=0) and when treatment is available for all (ω=0). However, even when R0 is less than 1, tuberculosis may persist at a specific level in the presence of exogenous reinfection and treatment saturation, leading to a backward bifurcation in the system. The existence and direction of Hopf-bifurcations are also discussed. Furthermore, we numerically validate our analytical results using different parameter sets. In the numerical examples, we study Hopf-bifurcations for parameters such as β, p, α, and ω. In one example, we observe that increasing β leads to the loss of stability of the unique EEP through a forward Hopf-bifurcation. If β is further increased, the unique EEP restores its stability, and the bifurcation diagram exhibits an interesting structure known as an endemic bubble. The existence of an endemic bubble for the saturation constant ω is also observed.

FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO PULMONARY TB TREATMENT LOST TO FOLLOW-UP IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN OVERVIEW

Background

Despite the available treatment options, pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of disease-related deaths worldwide. Treatment non-adherence/lost to follow-up (LTFU), particularly in developing countries, is a continuous concern. LTFU prolongs TB infectiousness and contributes to TB treatment failure, relapse, and death. Furthermore, LTFU also delays global TB eradication by promoting TB spread and drug-resistant TB strain development.[1] The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the commonly observed risk factors associated with TB treatment LTFU in developing countries.

Materials and Methods

A literature survey was done of studies published in the past decade, which evaluated the risk factors for LTFU in TB patients, specifically in developing countries. Furthermore, some prospective TB treatment adherence initiatives and the feasibility of these initiatives within developing countries were assessed.[3].

Results

Several variables, including socio-demographic, patient-related, TB disease and other health-related-factors, healthcare and system determinants, as well as treatment-related factors, were identified to increase the risk of TB treatment LTFU. More recently applied adherence interventions in developing countries, show potential for implementation on a larger scale.

Conclusion

Successful TB treatment is contingent on treatment adherence, and by addressing these persisting LTFU risk factors, treatment adherence in developing countries may be improved.

Quantifying transmission fitness costs of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis

As multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) continues to spread, investigating the transmission potential of different drug-resistant strains becomes an ever more pressing topic in public health. While phylogenetic and transmission tree inferences provide valuable insight into possible transmission chains, phylodynamic inference combines evolutionary and epidemiological analyses to estimate the parameters of the underlying epidemiological processes, allowing us to describe the overall dynamics of disease spread in the population. In this study, we introduce an approach to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) phylodynamic analysis employing an existing computationally efficient model to quantify the transmission fitness costs of drug resistance with respect to drug-sensitive strains. To determine the accuracy and precision of our approach, we first perform a simulation study, mimicking the simultaneous spread of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) strains. We analyse the simulated transmission trees using the phylodynamic multi-type birth-death model (MTBD, (Kühnert et al., 2016)) within the BEAST2 framework and show that this model can estimate the parameters of the epidemic well, despite the simplifying assumptions that MTBD makes compared to the complex TB transmission dynamics used for simulation. We then apply the MTBD model to an M. tuberculosis lineage 4 dataset that primarily consists of MDR sequences. Some of the MDR strains additionally exhibit resistance to pyrazinamide - an important first-line anti-tuberculosis drug. Our results support the previously proposed hypothesis that pyrazinamide resistance confers a transmission fitness cost to the bacterium, which we quantify for the given dataset. Importantly, our sensitivity analyses show that the estimates are robust to different prior distributions on the resistance acquisition rate, but are affected by the size of the dataset - i.e. we estimate a higher fitness cost when using fewer sequences for analysis. Overall, we propose that MTBD can be used to quantify the transmission fitness cost for a wide range of pathogens where the strains can be appropriately divided into two or more categories with distinct properties.

Humanized Mouse Model Mimicking Pathology of Human Tuberculosis for in vivo Evaluation of Drug Regimens

Human immune system mice are highly valuable for in vivo dissection of human immune responses. Although they were employed for analyzing tuberculosis (TB) disease, there is little data on the spatial organization and cellular composition of human immune cells in TB granuloma pathology in this model. We demonstrate that human immune system mice, generated by transplanted human fetal liver derived hematopoietic stem cells develop a continuum of pulmonary lesions upon Mycobacterium tuberculosis aerosol infection. In particular, caseous necrotic granulomas, which contribute to prolonged TB treatment time, developed, and had cellular phenotypic spatial-organization similar to TB patients. By comparing two recommended drug regimens, we confirmed observations made in clinical settings: Adding Moxifloxacin to a classical chemotherapy regimen had no beneficial effects on bacterial eradication. We consider this model instrumental for deeper understanding of human specific features of TB pathogenesis and of particular value for the pre-clinical drug development pipeline.

Modelling heterogeneity in host susceptibility to tuberculosis and its effect on public health interventions

A tuberculosis (TB) model that accounts for heterogeneity in host susceptibility to tuberculosis is proposed, with the aim of investigating the implications this may have for the effectiveness of public health interventions. The model examines the possibility that recovered individuals treated from active TB and individuals treated with preventive therapy acquire different levels of immunity. This contrasts with recent studies that assume the two cohorts acquire the same level of immunity, and therefore both groups are reinfected at the same rate. The analysis presented here examines the impact of this assumption when designing intervention strategies. Comparison of reinfection rates between cohorts treated with preventive therapy and recovered individuals who were previously treated for active TB provides important epidemiological insights. It is found that the reinfection rate of the cohort treated with preventive therapy is the one that plays the key role in qualitative changes in TB dynamics. By contrast, the reinfection rate of recovered individuals (previously treated from active TB) plays a minor role. Moreover, the study shows that preventive treatment of individuals during early latency is always beneficial regardless of the level of susceptibility to reinfection. Further, if patients have greater immunity following treatment for late latent infection, then treatment is again beneficial. However, if susceptibility increases following treatment for late latent infection, the effect of treatment depends on the epidemiological setting. That is: (i) in (very) low burden settings, the effect on reactivation predominates and the burden declines with treatment; (ii) in moderate to high burden settings the effect of reinfection predominates and burden increases with treatment. The effect is most dominant between the two reinfection thresholds, RT2 and RT1, respectively associated with individuals being treated with preventive therapy and individuals with untreated late latent TB infection.

Potential of immunomodulatory agents as adjunct host-directed therapies for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

Treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is extremely challenging due to the virulence of the etiologic strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb), the aberrant host immune responses and the diminishing treatment options with TB drugs. New treatment regimens incorporating therapeutics targeting both M. tb and host factors are urgently needed to improve the clinical management outcomes of MDR-TB. Host-directed therapies (HDT) could avert destructive tuberculous lung pathology, facilitate eradication of M. tb, improve survival and prevent long-term functional disability. In this review we (1) discuss the use of HDT for cancer and other infections, drawing parallels and the precedent they set for MDR-TB treatment, (2) highlight preclinical studies of pharmacological agents commonly used in clinical practice which have HDT potential, and (3) outline developments in cellular therapy to promote clinically beneficial immunomodulation to improve treatment outcomes in patients with pulmonary MDR-TB. The use of HDTs as adjuncts to MDR-TB therapy requires urgent evaluation.