Adaptive walks on high-dimensional fitness landscapes and seascapes with distance-dependent statistics

Evolution of evolvability in rapidly adapting populations

Mutations can alter the short-term fitness of an organism, as well as the rates and benefits of future mutations. While numerous examples of these evolvability modifiers have been observed in rapidly adapting microbial populations, existing theory struggles to predict when they will be favoured by natural selection. Here we develop a mathematical framework for predicting the fates of genetic variants that modify the rates and benefits of future mutations in linked genomic regions. We derive analytical expressions showing how the fixation probabilities of these variants depend on the size of the population and the diversity of competing mutations. We find that competition between linked mutations can dramatically enhance selection for modifiers that increase the benefits of future mutations, even when they impose a strong direct cost on fitness. However, we also find that modest direct benefits can be sufficient to drive evolutionary dead ends to fixation. Our results suggest that subtle differences in evolvability could play an important role in shaping the long-term success of genetic variants in rapidly evolving microbial populations.

Effects of selection stringency on the outcomes of directed evolution

Directed evolution makes mutant lineages compete in climbing complicated sequence-function landscapes. Given this underlying complexity it is unclear how selection stringency, a ubiquitous parameter of directed evolution, impacts the outcome. Here we approach this question in terms of the fitnesses of the candidate variants at each round and the heterogeneity of their distributions of fitness effects. We show that even if the fittest mutant is most likely to yield the fittest mutants in the next round of selection, diversification can improve outcomes by sampling a larger variety of fitness effects. We find that heterogeneity in fitness effects between variants, larger population sizes, and evolution over a greater number of rounds all encourage diversification.

Diverse mutant selection windows shape spatial heterogeneity in evolving populations

Mutant selection windows (MSWs), the range of drug concentrations that select for drug-resistant mutants, have long been used as a model for predicting drug resistance and designing optimal dosing strategies in infectious disease. The canonical MSW model offers comparisons between two subtypes at a time: drug-sensitive and drug-resistant. In contrast, the fitness landscape model with N alleles, which maps genotype to fitness, allows comparisons between N genotypes simultaneously, but does not encode continuous drug response data. In clinical settings, there may be a wide range of drug concentrations selecting for a variety of genotypes in both cancer and infectious diseases. Therefore, there is a need for a more robust model of the pathogen response to therapy to predict resistance and design new therapeutic approaches. Fitness seascapes, which model genotype-by-environment interactions, permit multiple MSW comparisons simultaneously by encoding genotype-specific dose-response data. By comparing dose-response curves, one can visualize the range of drug concentrations where one genotype is selected over another. In this work, we show how N-allele fitness seascapes allow for N * 2N-1 unique MSW comparisons. In spatial drug diffusion models, we demonstrate how fitness seascapes reveal spatially heterogeneous MSWs, extending the MSW model to more fully reflect the selection of drug resistant genotypes. Furthermore, using synthetic data and empirical dose-response data in cancer, we find that the spatial structure of MSWs shapes the evolution of drug resistance in an agent-based model. By simulating a tumor treated with cyclic drug therapy, we find that mutant selection windows introduced by drug diffusion promote the proliferation of drug resistant cells. Our work highlights the importance and utility of considering dose-dependent fitness seascapes in evolutionary medicine.

Diverse mutant selection windows shape spatial heterogeneity in evolving populations

Mutant selection windows (MSWs), the range of drug concentrations that select for drug-resistant mutants, have long been used as a model for predicting drug resistance and designing optimal dosing strategies in infectious disease. The canonical MSW model offers comparisons between two subtypes at a time: drug-sensitive and drug-resistant. In contrast, the fitness landscape model with N alleles, which maps genotype to fitness, allows comparisons between N genotypes simultaneously, but does not encode continuous drug response data. In clinical settings, there may be a wide range of drug concentrations selecting for a variety of genotypes. Therefore, there is a need for a more robust model of the pathogen response to therapy to predict resistance and design new therapeutic approaches. Fitness seascapes, which model genotype-by-environment interactions, permit multiple MSW comparisons simultaneously by encoding genotype-specific dose-response data. By comparing dose-response curves, one can visualize the range of drug concentrations where one genotype is selected over another. In this work, we show how N-allele fitness seascapes allow for N*2N-1 unique MSW comparisons. In spatial drug diffusion models, we demonstrate how fitness seascapes reveal spatially heterogeneous MSWs, extending the MSW model to more accurately reflect the selection fo drug resistant genotypes. Furthermore, we find that the spatial structure of MSWs shapes the evolution of drug resistance in an agent-based model. Our work highlights the importance and utility of considering dose-dependent fitness seascapes in evolutionary medicine.

Beyond collective intelligence: Collective adaptation

We develop a conceptual framework for studying collective adaptation in complex socio-cognitive systems, driven by dynamic interactions of social integration strategies, social environments and problem structures. Going beyond searching for 'intelligent' collectives, we integrate research from different disciplines and outline modelling approaches that can be used to begin answering questions such as why collectives sometimes fail to reach seemingly obvious solutions, how they change their strategies and network structures in response to different problems and how we can anticipate and perhaps change future harmful societal trajectories. We discuss the importance of considering path dependence, lack of optimization and collective myopia to understand the sometimes counterintuitive outcomes of collective adaptation. We call for a transdisciplinary, quantitative and societally useful social science that can help us to understand our rapidly changing and ever more complex societies, avoid collective disasters and reach the full potential of our ability to organize in adaptive collectives.

Higher-order epistasis and phenotypic prediction

One core goal of genetics is to systematically understand the mapping between the DNA sequence of an organism (genotype) and its measurable characteristics (phenotype). Understanding this mapping is often challenging because of interactions between mutations, where the result of combining several different mutations can be very different than the sum of their individual effects. Here we provide a statistical framework for modeling complex genetic interactions of this type. The key idea is to ask how fast the effects of mutations change when introducing the same mutation in increasingly distant genetic backgrounds. We then propose a model for phenotypic prediction that takes into account this tendency for the effects of mutations to be more similar in nearby genetic backgrounds.

Contemporary high-throughput mutagenesis experiments are providing an increasingly detailed view of the complex patterns of genetic interaction that occur between multiple mutations within a single protein or regulatory element. By simultaneously measuring the effects of thousands of combinations of mutations, these experiments have revealed that the genotype–phenotype relationship typically reflects not only genetic interactions between pairs of sites but also higher-order interactions among larger numbers of sites. However, modeling and understanding these higher-order interactions remains challenging. Here we present a method for reconstructing sequence-to-function mappings from partially observed data that can accommodate all orders of genetic interaction. The main idea is to make predictions for unobserved genotypes that match the type and extent of epistasis found in the observed data. This information on the type and extent of epistasis can be extracted by considering how phenotypic correlations change as a function of mutational distance, which is equivalent to estimating the fraction of phenotypic variance due to each order of genetic interaction (additive, pairwise, three-way, etc.). Using these estimated variance components, we then define an empirical Bayes prior that in expectation matches the observed pattern of epistasis and reconstruct the genotype–phenotype mapping by conducting Gaussian process regression under this prior. To demonstrate the power of this approach, we present an application to the antibody-binding domain GB1 and also provide a detailed exploration of a dataset consisting of high-throughput measurements for the splicing efficiency of human pre-mRNA 5′ splice sites, for which we also validate our model predictions via additional low-throughput experiments.

Population genetics of polymorphism and divergence in rapidly evolving populations

In rapidly evolving populations, numerous beneficial and deleterious mutations can arise and segregate within a population at the same time. In this regime, evolutionary dynamics cannot be analyzed using traditional population genetic approaches that assume that sites evolve independently. Instead, the dynamics of many loci must be analyzed simultaneously. Recent work has made progress by first analyzing the fitness variation within a population, and then studying how individual lineages interact with this traveling fitness wave. However, these "traveling wave" models have previously been restricted to extreme cases where selection on individual mutations is either much faster or much slower than the typical coalescent timescale Tc. In this work, we show how the traveling wave framework can be extended to intermediate regimes in which the scaled fitness effects of mutations (Tcs) are neither large nor small compared to one. This enables us to describe the dynamics of populations subject to a wide range of fitness effects, and in particular, in cases where it is not immediately clear which mutations are most important in shaping the dynamics and statistics of genetic diversity. We use this approach to derive new expressions for the fixation probabilities and site frequency spectra of mutations as a function of their scaled fitness effects, along with related results for the coalescent timescale Tc and the rate of adaptation or Muller's ratchet. We find that competition between linked mutations can have a dramatic impact on the proportions of neutral and selected polymorphisms, which is not simply summarized by the scaled selection coefficient Tcs. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for population genetic inferences.

On the sparsity of fitness functions and implications for learning

The properties of proteins and other biological molecules are encoded in large part in the sequence of amino acids or nucleotides that defines them. Increasingly, researchers estimate functions that map sequences to a particular property using machine learning and related statistical approaches. However, an important question remains unanswered: How many experimental measurements are needed in order to accurately learn these “fitness” functions? We leverage perspectives from the fields of biophysics, evolutionary biology, and signal processing to develop a theoretical framework that enables us to make progress on answering this question. We demonstrate that this framework can be used to make useful calculations on real-world data and suggest how these calculations may be used to guide experiments.

Fitness functions map biological sequences to a scalar property of interest. Accurate estimation of these functions yields biological insight and sets the foundation for model-based sequence design. However, the fitness datasets available to learn these functions are typically small relative to the large combinatorial space of sequences; characterizing how much data are needed for accurate estimation remains an open problem. There is a growing body of evidence demonstrating that empirical fitness functions display substantial sparsity when represented in terms of epistatic interactions. Moreover, the theory of Compressed Sensing provides scaling laws for the number of samples required to exactly recover a sparse function. Motivated by these results, we develop a framework to study the sparsity of fitness functions sampled from a generalization of the NK model, a widely used random field model of fitness functions. In particular, we present results that allow us to test the effect of the Generalized NK (GNK) model’s interpretable parameters—sequence length, alphabet size, and assumed interactions between sequence positions—on the sparsity of fitness functions sampled from the model and, consequently, the number of measurements required to exactly recover these functions. We validate our framework by demonstrating that GNK models with parameters set according to structural considerations can be used to accurately approximate the number of samples required to recover two empirical protein fitness functions and an RNA fitness function. In addition, we show that these GNK models identify important higher-order epistatic interactions in the empirical fitness functions using only structural information.

Seascape origin of Richards growth

First proposed as an empirical rule over half a century ago, the Richards growth equation has been frequently invoked in population modeling and pandemic forecasting. Central to this model is the advent of a fractional exponent γ, typically fitted to the data. While various motivations for this nonanalytical form have been proposed, it is still considered foremost an empirical fitting procedure. Here, we find that Richards-like growth laws emerge naturally from generic analytical growth rules in a distributed population, upon inclusion of (i) migration (spatial diffusion) among different locales, and (ii) stochasticity in the growth rate, also known as "seascape noise." The latter leads to a wide (power law) distribution in local population number that, while smoothened through the former, can still result in a fractional growth law for the overall population. This justification of the Richards growth law thus provides a testable connection to the distribution of constituents of the population.

Global epistasis emerges from a generic model of a complex trait

Epistasis between mutations can make adaptation contingent on evolutionary history. Yet despite widespread ‘microscopic’ epistasis between the mutations involved, microbial evolution experiments show consistent patterns of fitness increase between replicate lines. Recent work shows that this consistency is driven in part by global patterns of diminishing-returns and increasing-costs epistasis, which make mutations systematically less beneficial (or more deleterious) on fitter genetic backgrounds. However, the origin of this ‘global’ epistasis remains unknown. Here, we show that diminishing-returns and increasing-costs epistasis emerge generically as a consequence of pervasive microscopic epistasis. Our model predicts a specific quantitative relationship between the magnitude of global epistasis and the stochastic effects of microscopic epistasis, which we confirm by reanalyzing existing data. We further show that the distribution of fitness effects takes on a universal form when epistasis is widespread and introduce a novel fitness landscape model to show how phenotypic evolution can be repeatable despite sequence-level stochasticity.

Evolution in alternating environments with tunable interlandscape correlations

Natural populations are often exposed to temporally varying environments. Evolutionary dynamics in varying environments have been extensively studied, although understanding the effects of varying selection pressures remains challenging. Here, we investigate how cycling between a pair of statistically related fitness landscapes affects the evolved fitness of an asexually reproducing population. We construct pairs of fitness landscapes that share global fitness features but are correlated with one another in a tunable way, resulting in landscape pairs with specific correlations. We find that switching between these landscape pairs, depending on the ruggedness of the landscape and the interlandscape correlation, can either increase or decrease steady-state fitness relative to evolution in single environments. In addition, we show that switching between rugged landscapes often selects for increased fitness in both landscapes, even in situations where the landscapes themselves are anticorrelated. We demonstrate that positively correlated landscapes often possess a shared maximum in both landscapes that allows the population to step through sub-optimal local fitness maxima that often trap single landscape evolution trajectories. Finally, we demonstrate that switching between anticorrelated paired landscapes leads to ergodic-like dynamics where each genotype is populated with nonzero probability, dramatically lowering the steady-state fitness in comparison to single landscape evolution.

Detection of oriented fractal scaling components in anisotropic two-dimensional trajectories

We propose a novel class of mixed fluctuations with different orientations and fractal scaling features as a model for anisotropic two-dimensional (2D) trajectories hypothesized to appear in complex systems. Furthermore, we develop the oriented fractal scaling component analysis (OFSCA) to decompose such mixed fluctuations into the original orientation components. In the OFSCA, the original orientations are detected based on the principle that the original angles are orthogonal to the angles with the minimum and maximum scaling exponents of the mixed fluctuations. In our approach, the angle-dependent scaling properties are estimated using the Savitzky-Golay-filter-based detrended moving-average analysis (DMA), which has a higher detrending order than the conventional moving-average-filter-based DMA. To illustrate the OFSCA, we demonstrate that the numerically generated time-series of mixed fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) processes with non-orthogonal orientations and different scaling exponents is successfully decomposed into the original fGn components. We demonstrate the existence of oriented components in the 2D trajectories by applying OFSCA to real-world time-series, such as human postural fluctuations during standing and seismic ground acceleration during the great 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake.

Population extinction on a random fitness seascape

We explore the role of stochasticity and noise in the statistical outcomes of commonly studied population dynamics models within a space-independent (mean-field) perspective. Specifically, we consider a distributed population with logistic growth at each location, subject to "seascape" noise, wherein the population's fitness randomly varies with location and time. Despite its simplicity, the model actually incorporates variants of directed percolation, and directed polymers in random media, within a mean-field perspective. Probability distributions of the population can be computed self-consistently, and the extinction transition is shown to exhibit novel critical behavior with exponents dependent on the ratio of the strengths of migration and noise amplitudes. The results are compared and contrasted with the more conventional choice of demographic noise due to stochastic changes in reproduction.

A model for the interplay between plastic tradeoffs and evolution in changing environments

Performance tradeoffs are ubiquitous in both ecological and evolutionary modeling, yet they are usually postulated and built into fitness and ecological landscapes. However, tradeoffs depend on genetic background and evolutionary history and can themselves evolve. We present a simple model capable of capturing the key feedback loop: evolutionary history shapes tradeoff strength, which, in turn, shapes evolutionary future. One consequence of this feedback is that genomes with identical fitness can have different evolutionary properties shaped by prior environmental exposure. Another is that, generically, the best adaptations to one environment may evolve in another. Our simple framework bridges the gap between the phenotypic Fisher's Geometric Model and the genotypic properties, such as modularity and evolvability, and can serve as a rich playground for investigating evolution in multiple or changing environments.

Evolution Rapidly Optimizes Stability and Aggregation in Lattice Proteins Despite Pervasive Landscape Valleys and Mazes

The "fitness" landscapes of genetic sequences are characterized by high dimensionality and "ruggedness" due to sign epistasis. Ascending from low to high fitness on such landscapes can be difficult because adaptive trajectories get stuck at low-fitness local peaks. Compounding matters, recent theoretical arguments have proposed that extremely long, winding adaptive paths may be required to reach even local peaks: a "maze-like" landscape topography. The extent to which peaks and mazes shape the mode and tempo of evolution is poorly understood, due to empirical limitations and the abstractness of many landscape models. We explore the prevalence, scale, and evolutionary consequences of landscape mazes in a biophysically grounded computational model of protein evolution that captures the "frustration" between "stability" and aggregation propensity. Our stability-aggregation landscape exhibits extensive sign epistasis and local peaks galore. Although this frequently obstructs adaptive ascent to high fitness and virtually eliminates reproducibility of evolutionary outcomes, many adaptive paths do successfully complete the ascent from low to high fitness, with hydrophobicity a critical mediator of success. These successful paths exhibit maze-like properties on a global landscape scale, in which taking an indirect path helps to avoid low-fitness local peaks. This delicate balance of "hard but possible" adaptation could occur more broadly in other biological settings where competing interactions and frustration are important.

Global Genetic Networks and the Genotype-to-Phenotype Relationship

Genetic interactions identify combinations of genetic variants that impinge on phenotype. With whole-genome sequence information available for thousands of individuals within a species, a major outstanding issue concerns the interpretation of allelic combinations of genes underlying inherited traits. In this Review, we discuss how large-scale analyses in model systems have illuminated the general principles and phenotypic impact of genetic interactions. We focus on studies in budding yeast, including the mapping of a global genetic network. We emphasize how information gained from work in yeast translates to other systems, and how a global genetic network not only annotates gene function but also provides new insights into the genotype-to-phenotype relationship.