A quantitative model to predict blood use in adult orthotopic liver transplantation

Risk factors of massive blood transfusion in liver transplantation: consequences and a new index for prediction including the donor

BACKGROUND

Massive blood transfusion (MBT) is a common occurrence in liver transplant (LT) patients. Recipient-related risk factors include cirrhosis, history of multiple surgeries and suboptimal donors. Despite advances in surgical techniques, anesthetic management and graft preservation have decreased the need for transfusions, this complication has not been completely eliminated.

METHODS

One thousand four hundred and sixty-nine LT were performed at our institution between May 2003 and December 2020, and data was available regarding transfusion for 1198 of them. We divided the patients into two groups, with regards to transfusion of 6 or more units of packed red blood cells in the first 24 h posttransplant, and we analyzed the differences between the groups.

RESULTS

Out of the 1198 patients, 607 (50.7%) met criteria for MBT. Survival was statistically lower at 1, 3, and 5 years when comparing the groups that had MBT to those that did not (92.6%, 85.2% and 79.7%, respectively, in the non MBT group, vs. 78.1%, 71.6% y 66.8%, respectively, in the MBT group). MBT was associated with a 1.5 mortality risk as opposed to non-MBT patients. Logistical regression analysis of our variables yielded the following results for a new model, including serum creatinine (OR 1.97), sodium (OR 1.73), hemoglobin (OR 1.99), platelets (OR 1.37), INR (OR 1.4), uDCD (OR 2.13) and split liver donation.

CONCLUSION

Massive blood transfusion impacts patient survival in a statistically significant way. The most significant risk factors are preoperative hemoglobin, INR and serum creatinine.

Systematic review highlights high risk of bias of clinical prediction models for blood transfusion in patients undergoing elective surgery

BACKGROUND

Blood transfusion can be a lifesaving intervention after perioperative blood loss. Many prediction models have been developed to identify patients most likely to require blood transfusion during elective surgery, but it is unclear whether any are suitable for clinical practice.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted a systematic review, searching MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, The Cochrane Library, Transfusion Evidence Library, Scopus, and Web of Science databases for studies reporting the development or validation of a blood transfusion prediction model in elective surgery patients between January 1, 2000 and June 30, 2021. We extracted study characteristics, discrimination performance (c-statistics) of final models, and data, which we used to perform risk of bias assessment using the Prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

We reviewed 66 studies (72 developed and 48 externally validated models). Pooled c-statistics of externally validated models ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Most developed and validated models were at high risk of bias due to handling of predictors, validation methods, and too small sample sizes.

CONCLUSION

Most blood transfusion prediction models are at high risk of bias and suffer from poor reporting and methodological quality, which must be addressed before they can be safely used in clinical practice.

Incidence and predictors of massive bleeding in children undergoing liver transplantation: A single-center retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation represents a major surgery involving a highly vascular organ. Reports defining the scope of bleeding in pediatric liver transplants are few.

AIMS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of liver transplants performed at our pediatric tertiary care center to quantify blood loss, blood product utilization, and to determine predictors for massive intraoperative bleeding.

METHODS

Pediatric patients who underwent isolated liver transplantation at Boston Children's Hospital between 2011 and 2016 were included. The amount of blood product transfused in the perioperative period and the incidence of postoperative complications were reported. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to determine predictors for massive bleeding, defined as estimated blood loss exceeding one circulating blood volume within 24 hours.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight children underwent liver transplantation during the study period and were included in the analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified the following independent predictors of massive bleeding: preoperative hemoglobin level <8.5 g/dL (OR 11.09, 95% CI 1.87-65.76), INR >1.5 (OR 11.62, 95% CI 2.36-57.26), platelet count <100 10⁹ /L (OR 7.92, 95% CI 1.46-43.05), and surgery duration >600 minutes (OR 6.97, 95% CI 0.99-48.92).

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric liver transplantation is associated with substantial blood loss and a significant blood product transfusion burden. A 43% incidence of massive bleeding is reported. Further efforts are needed to improve bleeding management in this high-risk population.