Which score system can best predict recipient outcomes after living donor liver transplantation?

Combining Donor and Recipient Age With Preoperative MELD and UKELD Scores for Predicting Survival After Liver Transplantation

OBJECTIVES

The end-stage liver disease scoring systems MELD, UKELD, and D-MELD (donor age × MELD) have had mediocre results for survival assessment after orthotopic liver transplant. Here, we introduced new indices based on preoperative MELD and UKELDscores and assessed their predictive ability on survival posttransplant.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We included 1017 deceased donor orthotopic liver transplants that were performed between 2008 (the year UKELD was introduced) and 2019. Donor and recipient characteristics, liver disease scores, transplant characteristics, and outcomes were collected for analyses. D-MELD, D-UKELD (donor age × UKELD),DR-MELD[(donor age + recipient age) × MELD], and DR-UKELD [(donor age + recipient age) × UKELD] were calculated.

RESULTS

No score had predictive value for graft survival. For patient survival,DR-MELD and DR-UKELD provided the best results but with low accuracy. The highest accuracy was observed at 1 year posttransplant (areas under the curve of 0.598 [95% CI, 0.529-0.667] and 0.609 [95% CI, 0.549-0.67]forDR-MELDandDR-UKELD). Addition of donor and recipient age significantly improved the predictive abilities of MELD and UKELD for patient survival, but addition of donor age alone did not. For 1-year mortality (using receiver operating characteristic curves), optimal cut-off points were DR-MELD>2345 and DR-UKELD>5908. Recipients with DR-MELD >2345 (P < .001) and DR-UKELD >5908 (P = .002) had worse patient survival within the first year, but only DR-MELD >2345 remained significant after multivariable analysis (P = .007).

CONCLUSIONS

DR-MELD and DR-UKELD scores provided the best, albeit mediocre, predictive ability among the 6 tested models, especially at 1 year after posttransplant, although only for patient but not for graft survival. A DR-MELD >2345 was considered to be an additional independent risk factor for worse recipient survival within the first postoperative year.

Scoring Systems and Postoperative Outcomes in Pediatric Liver Transplantation

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of risk scores (Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease [PELD], Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP], and Pediatric Risk of Mortality [PRISM-III]) of pediatric liver transplant patients on the postoperative period.

METHOD

Seven cadaveric and 45 living donors, totaling 52 pediatric liver transplantation (LT) patients, were reviewed retrospectively. PELD and CTP scores were calculated based on data at hospital admission. PRISM-III score was calculated from data during the first 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Hospital length of stay (LOS), ICU LOS, patients who developed acute kidney injury (AKI), requirement for inotropic-vasopressor therapy, hospital mortality, long-term mortality, duration of mechanical ventilation, metabolic disease, and demographic features were documented.For CTP score, class C was defined as high, and A and B as low. Cutoff values of PELD and PRISM-III scores were detected by using receiver operating characteristic curves. According to these cutoff values, patients were divided into 2 groups as high and low for each score. Documented data was analyzed and compared in groups for each score.

RESULTS

Hospital LOS was significantly longer in the high-PELD (P = .01) and high-CTP (P = .01) groups. ICU LOS was significantly longer in the high-PRISM-III group (P = .01). Requirement for inotropic-vasopressor therapy was significantly higher in the high-PELD (P = .04) and high-CTP (P = .04) groups.

CONCLUSION

Hemodynamic instability and long hospital LOS can be expected in pediatric post-LT patients with high PELD or CTP scores; there is also the risk that AKI maybe higher for high-PELD score patients. Unexpectedly, the PRISM-III score did not have any correlation with the severity of physiological condition and mortality.

The EMALT Score: An Improved Model for Prediction of Early Mortality in Liver Transplant Recipients

PURPOSE

Needs, risks, and outcomes of patients admitted to a post liver transplant intensive care unit (POLTICU) differ in important ways from those admitted to pretransplant intensive care units (ICUs). The aim of this study was to create the optimal model to risk stratify POLTICU patients.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent first deceased donor liver transplantation (LT) at a large United States center between 2008 and 2014 were followed from admission to LT and to discharge or death. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was performed to assess the value of various scores in predicting in-hospital mortality. A predictive model was developed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 697 patients underwent LT, and 3.2% died without leaving the hospital. A model for in-hospital mortality was derived from variables available within 24 hours of admission to the POLTICU. Key variables best predicting survival were white blood cell count, 24-hour urine output, and serum glucose. A model using these variables performed with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88, compared to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, which performed with AUCs of 0.74 and 0.60, respectively.

CONCLUSION

An improved model, the early mortality after LT (EMALT) score, performs better than conventional models in predicting in-hospital mortality after LT.

Is Muscle MELD a More Promising Predictor for Mortality After Living Donor Liver Transplantation?

BACKGROUND

To improve the outcome of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT), a scoring system that could predict accurately the patient and graft survival posttransplant is necessary. The aim of this study is to evaluate our previously proposed Muscle-model for end-stage liver disease (M-MELD) score and to compare it with the other available scores to find the best system that correlates with postoperative outcome after liver transplant.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the data of 199 patients who underwent LDLT from January 2010 to July 2016 and calculated the preoperative MELD, MELD Na, the product of donor age and MELD (D-MELD), M-MELD, integrated MELD, and the balance of risk (BAR) score in all patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUCs) of each score was computed and compared at 3-, 6-months, and 1-year after LDLT.

RESULTS

The M-MELD, D-MELD, and integrated MELD had a good discriminative performance in predicting 3-month mortality after LDLT with AUCs > 0.7, while the M-MELD was the only score that showed a good discriminative performance in predicting 6-month and 1-year mortality after LDLT with AUCs > 0.7.

CONCLUSION

Muscle-MELD score is a simple and useful predictor of patient survival after LDLT which showed a better predictive performance than other available scores.

Comparison of APACHE IV with APACHE II, SAPS 3, MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP scores in predicting mortality after liver transplantation

The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 include liver transplantation as a diagnostic category. The performance of APACHE IV-liver transplantation (LT) specific predicted mortality, SAPS 3, APACHE II, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Na, MELD, and CTP scores in predicting in-hospital and 1 year mortality in liver transplant patients was compared using 590 liver transplantations in a single university hospital. In-hospital mortality and 1 year mortality were 2.9% and 4.2%, respectively. The APACHE IV-LT specific predicted mortality showed better performance in predicting in-hospital mortality (AUC 0.91, 95% CI [0.86–0.96]) compared to SAPS 3 (AUC 0.78, 95% CI [0.66–0.90], p = 0.01), MELD-Na (AUC 0.74, 95% CI [0.57–0.86], p = 0.01), and CTP (AUC 0.68, 95% CI [0.54–0.81], p = 0.01). The APACHE IV-LT specific predicted mortality showed better performance in predicting 1 year mortality (AUC 0.83, 95% CI [0.76–0.9]) compared to MELD-Na (AUC 0.67, 95% CI [0.55–0.79], p = 0.04) and CTP (AUC 0.64, 95% CI [0.53–0.75], p = 0.03), and also in all MELD groups and in both living and deceased donor transplantation. The APACHE IV-LT specific predicted mortality showed better performance in predicting in-hospital and 1 year mortality after liver transplantation.

Altered cortical brain activity in end stage liver disease assessed by multi-channel near-infrared spectroscopy: Associations with delirium

Delirium is a common and serious psychiatric syndrome caused by an underlying medical condition. It is associated with significant mortality and increased healthcare resource utilization. There are few biological markers of delirium, perhaps related to the etiologic heterogeneity of the syndrome. Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is an optical topography system to measure changes in the concentration of oxygenated hemoglobin ([oxy-Hb]) in the cerebral cortex. We examined whether altered cortical brain activity in delirious patients with end stage liver disease (ESLD) is detected by fNIRS. We found that the [oxy-Hb] change during the verbal fluency task (VFT) was reduced in patients with ESLD compared with healthy controls (HC) in the prefrontal and bi-temporal regions. The [oxy-Hb] change during the sustained attention task (SAT) was elevated in patients with ESLD compared to HC in the prefrontal and left temporal regions. Notably, [oxy-Hb] change in the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex during SAT showed a positive correlation with the severity of delirium. Our results suggest that [oxy-Hb] change in the prefrontal cortex during the sustained attention task measured with fNIRS might serve as a biological marker associated with delirium in ESLD patients.

Different Score Systems to Predict Mortality in Living Donor Liver Transplantation: Which Is the Winner? The Experience of an Egyptian Center for Living Donor Liver Transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Many scoring systems have been proposed to predict the outcome of deceased donor liver transplantation. However, their impact on the outcome in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) has not yet been elucidated. This study sought to assess performance of preoperative Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in predicting postoperative mortality in LDLT and to compare it with other scores: MELDNa, United Kingdom End-Stage Liver Disease (UKELD), MELD to serum sodium ratio (MESO), updated MELD, donor age-MELD (D-MELD) and integrated MELD (iMELD).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from 86 adult Egyptian patients who underwent LDLT in a single center. Preoperative MELD, MELDNa, MESO, UKELD, updated MELD, D-MELD, and iMELD were calculated. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the performance of MELD and other scores in predicting postoperative mortality at 3 months (early) and 12 months.

RESULTS

Among the 86 patients, mean age 48 ± 7 years, 76 (88%) were of male sex and 27 (31.4%) had died. Preoperative MELD failed to predict early mortality (AUC = 0.63; P = .066). Comparing preoperative MELD with other scores, all other scores had better predictive ability (P < .05), with D-MELD on the top of the list (AUC = 0.68, P = .016), followed closely by UKELD (AUC = 0.67, P = .025). After that were iMELD, MESO, and MELDNa with the same predictive performance (AUC = 0.65; P < .05); updated MELD had the lowest prediction (AUC = 0.640; P = .04). Moreover, all scores failed to predict mortality at 12 months (P > .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative MELD failed to predict either early or 1-year mortality after LDLT. D-MELD, UKELD, MELDNa, iMELD, and MESO could be used as better predictors of early mortality than MELD; however, we need to develop an effective score system to predict mortality after LDLT.

A new formula as a predictive score of post-liver transplantation outcome: postoperative MELD-lactate

INTRODUCTION

Liver transplantation (OLT) involves a 5% to 10% 30-day mortality rate. Multiple scores have been used as predictors of early postoperative mortality, such as the original Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and MELD sodium. Investigations have been conducted over the last 5 years to find new predictors of early post-OLT mortality.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop a new mathematical model to predict the individual chance of 30-day mortality after OLT.

METHODS

The study was conducted on 58 patients submitted to OLT at the University Hospital, between October 2008 and March 2012. The 29 latest survivor and 29 latest nonsurvivor cases were selected. Arterial blood sodium, lactate, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, and creatinine values were determined 1 hour after the end of surgery. The MELD original equation, MELD sodium, and new MELD lactate were also elaborated. The results were analyzed by the Mann-Whitney and Wilcoxon tests. The level of significance was set at .05.

RESULTS

The new formula elaborated was as follows: MELD lactate = 5.68 × loge (lactate) + 0.64 × (Original MELD) + 2.68. The MELD lactate values were significantly higher than the MELD sodium and original MELD values (P < .05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of MELD lactate in predicting the outcome of patients submitted to OLT was 0.80, as opposed to 0.71 for the original MELD and 0.72 for MELD sodium (P < .05).

CONCLUSION

The postoperative MELD lactate score proved to be more specific and sensitive than the original MELD and MELD sodium as a predictive model of the outcome of patients submitted to OLT.

The combination of MELD score and ICG liver testing predicts length of stay in the ICU and hospital mortality in liver transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

Early prediction of outcome would be useful for an optimal intensive care management of liver transplant recipients. Indocyanine green clearance can be measured non-invasively by pulse spectrophometry and is closely related to liver function.

METHODS

This study was undertaken to assess the predictive value of a combination of the model of end stage liver disease (MELD) score and early indocyanine plasma disappearance rates (ICG-PDR) for length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU), length of stay in the hospital and hospital mortality in liver transplant recipients.

RESULTS

Fifty consecutive liver transplant recipients were included in this post Hoc single-center study. ICG-PDR was determined within 6 hours after ICU admission. Endpoints were length of stay in the ICU, length of hospital stay and hospital mortality. The combination of a high MELD score (MELD >25) and a low ICG-PDR clearance (ICG-PDR < 20%/minute) predicts a significant longer stay in the ICU (p = 0.004), a significant longer stay in the hospital (p < 0.001) and a hospital mortality of 40% vs. 0% (p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

The combination of MELD scores and a singular ICG-PDR measurement in the early postoperative phase is an accurate predictor for outcome in liver transplant recipients. This easy-to-assess tool might be valuable for an optimal intensive care management of those patients.

Can joint analysis of postoperative MELD, base excess and blood lactate levels be used as an index of postoperative outcome for patients submitted to liver transplantation?

PURPOSE: The objective of the present study was to evaluate the postoperative levels of classical or pure MELD and changes in lactate or base excess (BE) levels as possible predictive factors of the type of outcome of patients submitted to orthotopic liver trasplantation (OLT). METHODS: The study was conducted on 60 patients submitted to OLT at the University Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Ribeirão Preto, USP, between October 2008 and March 2012. The 30 latest survivor (S) and non-survivor (NS) cases were selected. All liver transplants were performed using the piggy-back technique. ALT, AST, BE and blood lactate values were determined for each group at five time points (immediate preoperative period, end of hypothermal ischemia, 5 and 60 minutes after arterial revascularization and in the immediate postoperative period, when the postoperative MELD was also calculated. RESULTS: The aminotransferases reached a maximum increase 24 hours after surgery in both the S and NS groups. There was a significantly higher increase in BE and blood lactate in the NS group, especially after 5 minutes of afterial reperfusion of the graft, p<0.05. There was no significant difference in preoperative MELD between groups (p>0.05), while the postoperative MELD was higher in the NS than in the S group (p<0.05) CONCLUSION: Joint analysis of postoperative MELD, BE and blood lactate can be used as an index of severity of the postoperative course of patients submitted to liver transplantation.