Minimum viable populations: is there a 'magic number' for conservation practitioners?

Evolutionary Adaptation in Heterogeneous and Changing Environments

Organisms that are adapting to long-term environmental change almost always deal with multiple environments and trade-offs that affect their optimal phenotypic strategy. Here, we combine the idea of repeated variation or heterogeneity, like seasonal shifts, with long-term directional dynamics. Using the framework of fitness sets, we determine the dynamics of the optimal phenotype in two competing environments encountered with different frequencies, one of which changes with time. When such an optimal strategy is selected for in simulations of evolving populations, we observe rich behavior that is qualitatively different from and more complex than adaptation to long-term change in a single environment. The probability of survival and the critical rate of environmental change above which populations go extinct depend crucially on the relative frequency of the two environments and the strength and asymmetry of their selection pressures. We identify a critical frequency for the stationary environment, above which populations can escape the pressure to constantly evolve by adapting to the stationary optimum. In the neighborhood of this critical frequency, we also find the counter-intuitive possibility of a lower bound on the rate of environmental change, below which populations go extinct, and above which a process of evolutionary rescue is possible.

Resource-based modelling approach to studying evolutionary rescue

In this paper, we present an in-depth investigation into the dynamics of evolutionary rescue using a resource-based modelling approach. Utilizing classical consumer-resource models, we aim to understand how species can adapt to abrupt environmental changes that alter the availability of substitutable resources. Through both analytical solutions and simulation-based techniques, we explore the conditions under which populations can recover from critical sizes and avoid extinction. Our findings highlight the importance of minimum viable population sizes, mutation rates, and the adaptive capacity of metabolic strategies in influencing population resilience. We demonstrate that while increased mutation rates can facilitate faster recovery by enabling populations to evolve new metabolic strategies suited to the altered resource landscape, populations starting with smaller sizes or facing severe reductions in resource availability are more susceptible to extinction. This study offers valuable insights into the interplay between ecological dynamics and evolutionary mechanisms, providing a comprehensive framework for predicting population persistence and informing conservation strategies under changing environmental conditions.

Understanding evolutionary rescue and parallelism in response to environmental stress

Evolutionary rescue, the process by which populations facing environmental stress avoid extinction through genetic adaptation, is a critical area of study in evolutionary biology. The order in which mutations arise and get established will be relevant to the population's rescue. This study investigates the degree of parallel evolution at the genotypic level between independent populations facing environmental stress and subject to different demographic regimes. Under density regulation, 2 regimes exist: In the first, the population can restore positive growth rates by adjusting its population size or through adaptive mutations, whereas in the second regime, the population is doomed to extinction unless a rescue mutation occurs. Analytical approximations for the likelihood of evolutionary rescue are obtained and contrasted with simulation results. We show that the initial level of maladaptation and the demographic regime significantly affect the level of parallelism. There is an evident transition between these 2 regimes. Whereas in the first regime, parallelism decreases with the level of maladaptation, it displays the opposite behavior in the rescue/extinction regime. These findings have important implications for understanding population persistence and the degree of parallelism in evolutionary responses as they integrate demographic effects and evolutionary processes.

The role of epistasis in evolutionary rescue

The process by which adaptive evolution preserves a population threatened with extinction due to environmental changes is known as evolutionary rescue. Several factors determine the fate of those populations, including demography and genetic factors, such as standing genetic variation, gene flow, availability of de novo mutations, and so on. Despite the extensive debate about evolutionary rescue in the current literature, a study about the role of epistasis and the topography of the fitness landscape on the fate of dwindling populations is missing. In the current work, we aim to fill this gap and study the influence of epistasis on the probability of extinction of populations. We present simulation results, and analytical approximations are derived. Counterintuitively, we show that the likelihood of extinction is smaller when the degree of epistasis is higher. The reason underneath is twofold: first, higher epistasis can promote mutations of more significant phenotypic effects, but also, the incongruence between the maps genotype-phenotype and phenotype-fitness turns the fitness landscape at low epistasis more rugged, thus curbing some of its advantages.

Human Impacts on the Vegetation of the Juan Fernández (Robinson Crusoe) Archipelago

The human footprint on marine and terrestrial ecosystems of the planet has been substantial, largely due to the increase in the human population with associated activities and resource utilization. Oceanic islands have been particularly susceptible to such pressures, resulting in high levels of loss of biodiversity and reductions in the numbers and sizes of wild populations. One archipelago that has suffered from human impact has been the Juan Fernández (Robinson Crusoe) Archipelago, a Chilean national park located 667 km west of Valparaíso at 33° S. latitude. The park consists of three principal islands: Robinson Crusoe Island (48 km2); Santa Clara Island (2.2 km2); and Alejandro Selkirk Island (50 km2). The latter island lies 181 kms further west into the Pacific Ocean. No indigenous peoples ever visited or lived on any of these islands; they were first discovered by the Spanish navigator, Juan Fernández, in 1574. From that point onward, a series of European visitors arrived, especially to Robinson Crusoe Island. They began to cut the forests, and such activity increased with the establishment of a permanent colony in 1750 that has persisted to the present day. Pressures on the native and endemic flora increased due to the introduction of animals, such as goats, rats, dogs, cats, pigs, and rabbits. Numerous invasive plants also arrived, some deliberately introduced and others arriving inadvertently. At present, more than three-quarters of the endemic and native vascular species of the flora are either threatened or endangered. The loss of vegetation has also resulted in a loss of genetic variability in some species as populations are reduced in size or go extinct. It is critical that the remaining genetic diversity be conserved, and genomic markers would provide guidelines for the conservation of the diversity of the endemic flora. To preserve the unique flora of these islands, further conservation measures are needed, especially in education and phytosanitary monitoring.

Evolutionary rescue on genotypic fitness landscapes

Populations facing adverse environments, novel pathogens or invasive competitors may be destined to extinction if they are unable to adapt rapidly. Quantitative predictions of the probability of survival through adaptation, evolutionary rescue, have been previously developed for one of the most natural and well-studied mappings from an organism's traits to its fitness, Fisher's geometric model (FGM). While FGM assumes that all possible trait values are accessible via mutation, in many applications only a finite set of rescue mutations will be available, such as mutations conferring resistance to a parasite, predator or toxin. We predict the probability of evolutionary rescue, via de novo mutation, when this underlying genetic structure is included. We find that rescue probability is always reduced when its genetic basis is taken into account. Unlike other known features of the genotypic FGM, however, the probability of rescue increases monotonically with the number of available mutations and approaches the behaviour of the classical FGM as the number of available mutations approaches infinity.

Biocultural aspects of species extinctions

Predicting whether a species is likely to go extinct (or not) is one of the fundamental objectives of conservation biology, and extinction risk classifications have become an essential tool for conservation policy, planning and research. This sort of prediction is feasible because the extinction processes follow a familiar pattern of population decline, range collapse and fragmentation, and, finally, extirpation of sub-populations through a combination of genetic, demographic and environmental stochasticity. Though less well understood and rarely quantified, the way in which science and society respond to population decline, extirpation and species extinction can also have a profound influence, either negative or positive, on whether a species goes extinct. For example, species that are highly sought after by collectors and hobbyists can become more desirable and valuable as they become rarer, leading to increased demand and greater incentives for illegal trade - known as the anthropogenic Allee effect. Conversely, species that are strongly linked to cultural identity are more likely to benefit from sustainable management, high public support for conservation actions and fund-raising, and, by extension, may be partially safeguarded from extinction. More generally, human responses to impending extinctions are extremely complex, are highly dependent on cultural and socioeconomic context, and have typically been far less studied than the ecological and genetic aspects of extinction. Here, we identify and discuss biocultural aspects of extinction and outline how recent advances in our ability to measure and monitor cultural trends with big data are, despite their intrinsic limitations and biases, providing new opportunities for incorporating biocultural factors into extinction risk assessment.

Population structure of Phanaeus vindex (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) in SE Michigan

Until now, little is known about the population structure and mobility of temperate dung beetles including the rainbow scarab, Phanaeus vindex (MacLeay 1819), although this knowledge is essential for their conservation as pastures become increasingly rare and the landscape fragmented by monocultures and urbanization. Here, we estimated population size, longevity, and dispersal within and between pastures. For 3 yr, we life-trapped beetles every week on 2 adjacent farms in SE Michigan, determined their sex, male morph, and size, and marked their elytra with individual tattoo patterns before releasing them. We marked a total of 470 rainbow scarabs of which 14 were recaptured once and 2 were recaptured twice. The sex ratio was not significantly sex-biased but fluctuated between months with no apparent uniformity between years. While the minor to major male ratios were unbiased in 2019 and 2020, they were marginally minor-biased in 2021. The gross population estimates for the 2 farms were 458-491 and 217 rainbow scarabs, respectively. Beetles traveled distances of up to 178 m within farms. No beetles dispersed between farms. One large female was recaptured after 338 days documenting the first cold hardiness and long lifespan of a cold-temperate dung beetle species in the wild. The low population estimates on both farms indicate 2 vulnerable populations with no or extremely limited connectivity. Supplementary funding for the land stewardship of small-scale cattle farmers could stabilize populations of native dung beetles and maintain their ecosystem services.

Operations research applicability in spatial conservation planning

A large fraction of the current environmental crisis derives from the large rates of human-driven biodiversity loss. Biodiversity conservation questions human practices towards biodiversity and, therefore, largely conflicts with ordinary societal aspirations. Decisions on the location of protected areas, one of the most convincing conservation tools, reflect such a competitive endeavor. Operations Research (OR) brings a set of analytical models and tools capable of resolving the conflicting interests between ecology and economy. Recent technological advances have boosted the size and variety of data available to planners, thus challenging conventional approaches bounded on optimized solutions. New models and methods are needed to use such a massive amount of data in integrative schemes addressing a large variety of concerns. This study provides an overview on the past, present and future challenges that characterize spatial conservation models supported by OR. We discuss the progress of OR models and methods in spatial conservation planning and how those models may be optimized through sophisticated algorithms and computational tools. Moreover, we anticipate possible panoramas of modern spatial conservation studies supported by OR and we explore possible avenues for the design of optimized interdisciplinary collaborative platforms in the era of Big Data, through consortia where distinct players with different motivations and services meet. By enlarging the spatial, temporal, taxonomic and societal horizons of biodiversity conservation, planners navigate around multiple socioecological/environmental equilibria and are able to decide on cost-effective strategies to improve biodiversity persistence under complex environments.

Longitudinal monitoring of neutral and adaptive genomic diversity in a reintroduction

Restoration programs in the form of ex-situ breeding combined with reintroductions are becoming critical to counteract demographic declines and species losses. Such programs are increasingly using genetic management to improve conservation outcomes. However, the lack of long-term monitoring of genetic indicators following reintroduction prevents assessments of the trajectory and persistence of reintroduced populations. We carried out an extensive monitoring program in the wild for a threatened small-bodied fish (southern pygmy perch, Nannoperca australis) to assess the long-term genomic effects of its captive breeding and reintroduction. The species was rescued prior to its extirpation from the terminal lakes of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin, and then used for genetically informed captive breeding and reintroductions. Subsequent annual or biannual monitoring of abundance, fitness, and occupancy over a period of 11 years, combined with postreintroduction genetic sampling, revealed survival and recruitment of reintroduced fish. Genomic analyses based on data from the original wild rescued, captive born, and reintroduced cohorts revealed low inbreeding and strong maintenance of neutral and candidate adaptive genomic diversity across multiple generations. An increasing trend in the effective population size of the reintroduced population was consistent with field monitoring data in demonstrating successful re-establishment of the species. This provides a rare empirical example that the adaptive potential of a locally extinct population can be maintained during genetically informed ex-situ conservation breeding and reintroduction into the wild. Strategies to improve biodiversity restoration via ex-situ conservation should include genetic-based captive breeding and longitudinal monitoring of standing genomic variation in reintroduced populations.

Surviving environmental change: when increasing population size can increase extinction risk

Populations threatened by an abrupt environmental change-due to rapid climate change, pathogens or invasive competitors-may survive if they possess or generate genetic combinations adapted to the novel, challenging condition. If these genotypes are initially rare or non-existent, the emergence of lineages that allow a declining population to survive is known as 'evolutionary rescue'. By contrast, the genotypes required for survival could, by chance, be common before the environmental change. Here, considering both of these possibilities, we find that the risk of extinction can be lower in very small or very large populations, but peaks at intermediate population sizes. This pattern occurs when the survival genotype has a small deleterious effect before the environmental change. Since mildly deleterious mutations constitute a large fraction of empirically measured fitness effects, we suggest that this unexpected result-an intermediate size that puts a population at a greater risk of extinction-may not be unusual in the face of environmental change.

Demographic and Evolutionary History of Pallid and Shovelnose Sturgeon in the Upper Missouri River

Natural-origin pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in the upper Missouri River are predicted to become extirpated as early as 2024.  To aid in recovery efforts for this endangered species, we used genetic data from 17 microsatellite loci to infer demographic and evolutionary history of pallid sturgeon and a sympatric shovelnose sturgeon S. platorynchus .  A recent sundering of geneflow between these species was indicated by overlapping allele size distributions at all loci and low level of genetic divergence ( F ST = 0.10).  Tests for recent bottlenecks, using heterozygosity excess or allele frequency mode-shift tests indicated demographic stability for both species while the M-Ratio identified historic bottlenecks had occurred in both species. Estimates of historical effective population size ( N e ), based on coalescent modeling of allele size distribution, suggested the geographic expansion of these species into the upper Missouri River during the late Pleistocene was associated with 10 to 19 fold reductions in N e .  In contrast estimates of contemporary estimates of N e based on linkage disequilibrium revealed that shovelnose sturgeon ( N e  = 2983) had approximately 10 times greater N e  than pallid sturgeon ( N e  = 254).  Our results are consistent with the recent collapse of pallid sturgeon being caused by dam construction which occurred between 1930 and 1965.  Fortunately, genetic diversity remaining in this long-lived species has provided an opportunity to conserve pre-dam pallid sturgeon genetic diversity via a successful captive breeding program. We provide recommendations to address key conservation needs including how to incorporate our estimate of N e / adult census size of 0.26 (95% CI: 0.16 – 0.47) into setting demographic recovery goals for pallid sturgeon.

Population viability analysis of the endangered Dupont's Lark Chersophilus duponti in Spain

Steppe lands in Europe are critically affected by habitat loss and fragmentation, and hold over 50% of IUCN Red List bird species in Europe. Dupont's Lark is a threatened steppe-specialist passerine whose European geographic range is restricted to Spain, with less than 2000 pairs and an annual population decline of - 3.9%. Its strongly fragmented habitat leads to a metapopulation structure in the Iberian Peninsula that includes 24 populations and 100 subpopulations. We present an updated Population Viability Analysis based on the latest scientific knowledge regarding distribution, population trends, breeding biology and connectivity. Our results predict metapopulation extinction in 2-3 decades, through a centripetal contraction process from the periphery to the core. The probability of extinction in 20 years was 84.2%, which supports its relisting to Endangered in Spain following IUCN criteria. We carried out a sensitivity analysis showing that some parameters, especially productivity and survival of adults and juveniles, help to increase metapopulation viability. Simulation of management scenarios showed that habitat restoration in a subset of key subpopulations had a positive effect on the overall metapopulation persistence. Translocations of a limited number of individuals from source to recipient locations may help to rescue the most endangered subpopulations without reducing the global time to extinction of the metapopulation. In addition, we identified the most critical areas for action, where local populations of the species are prone to extinction. This work suggests that the viability of the Dupont's Lark metapopulation could be improved and its risk of extinction reduced if urgent and localized conservation measures are applied. In the short-term, habitat loss and fragmentation due to ploughing, reforestation and infrastructures implementation in Dupont's Lark habitat must be avoided. Habitat restoration and translocations could help to avoid imminent extinction of critical subpopulations. Restoration of extensive grazing is recommended as the most effective way to achieve the long-term conservation of Dupont's Lark in Spain.

Rewilding with invertebrates and microbes to restore ecosystems: Present trends and future directions

Restoration ecology has historically focused on reconstructing communities of highly visible taxa while less visible taxa, such as invertebrates and microbes, are ignored. This is problematic as invertebrates and microbes make up the vast bulk of biodiversity and drive many key ecosystem processes, yet they are rarely actively reintroduced following restoration, potentially limiting ecosystem function and biodiversity in these areas.In this review, we discuss the current (limited) incorporation of invertebrates and microbes in restoration and rewilding projects. We argue that these groups should be actively rewilded during restoration to improve biodiversity, ecosystem function outcomes, and highlight how they can be used to greater effect in the future. For example, invertebrates and microbes are easily manipulated, meaning whole communities can potentially be rewilded through habitat transplants in a practice that we refer to as "whole-of-community" rewilding.We provide a framework for whole-of-community rewilding and describe empirical case studies as practical applications of this under-researched restoration tool that land managers can use to improve restoration outcomes.We hope this new perspective on whole-of-community restoration will promote applied research into restoration that incorporates all biota, irrespective of size, while also enabling a better understanding of fundamental ecological theory, such as colonization and competition trade-offs. This may be a necessary consideration as invertebrates that are important in providing ecosystem services are declining globally; targeting invertebrate communities during restoration may be crucial in stemming this decline.

Absolute abundance and preservation rate of Tyrannosaurus rex

Although much can be deduced from fossils alone, estimating abundance and preservation rates of extinct species requires data from living species. Here, we use the relationship between population density and body mass among living species combined with our substantial knowledge of Tyrannosaurus rex to calculate population variables and preservation rates for postjuvenile T. rex We estimate that its abundance at any one time was ~20,000 individuals, that it persisted for ~127,000 generations, and that the total number of T. rex that ever lived was ~2.5 billion individuals, with a fossil recovery rate of 1 per ~80 million individuals or 1 per 16,000 individuals where its fossils are most abundant. The uncertainties in these values span more than two orders of magnitude, largely because of the variance in the density-body mass relationship rather than variance in the paleobiological input variables.

Mazes to Study the Effects of Spatial Complexity, Predation and Population Density on Mate Finding

The difficulty to locate mates and overcome predation can hamper species establishment and population maintenance. The effects of sparseness between individuals or the effect of predators on the probability of population growth can be difficult to measure experimentally. For testing hypotheses about population density and predation, we contend that habitat complexity can be simulated using insect mazes of varying mathematical difficulty. To demonstrate the concept, we investigated whether the use of 3D printed mazes of varying complexity could be used to increase spatial separation between sexes of Drosophila simulans, and whether the presence of a generalist predator hampered mate-finding. We then examined how increasing D. simulans population density might overcome the artificially created effects of increasing the distance between mates and having a predator present. As expected, there was an increase in time taken to find a mate and a lower incidence of mating as habitat complexity increased. Increasing the density of flies reduced the searching time and increased mating success, and overcame the effect of the predator in the maze. Printable 3D mazes offer the opportunity to quickly assess the effects of spatial separation on insect population growth in the laboratory, without the need for large enclosed spaces. Mazes could be scaled up for larger insects and can be used for other applications such as learning.

Aligning biodiversity conservation and agricultural production in heterogeneous landscapes

Understanding the trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and agricultural production has become a fundamental question in sustainability science. Substantial research has focused on how species' populations respond to agricultural intensification, with the goal to understand whether conservation policies that spatially separate agriculture and conservation or, alternatively, integrate the two are more beneficial. Spatial heterogeneity in both species abundance and agricultural productivity have been largely left out of this discussion, although these patterns are ubiquitous from local to global scales due to varying land capacity. Here, we address the question of how to align agricultural production and biodiversity conservation in heterogeneous landscapes. Using model simulations of species abundance and agricultural yields, we show that trade-offs between agricultural production and species' abundance can be reduced by minimizing the cost (in terms of species abundance) of agricultural production. We find that when species' abundance and agricultural yields vary across landscapes, the optimal strategy to minimize trade-offs is rarely pure land sparing or land sharing. Instead, landscapes that combine elements of both strategies are optimal. Additionally, we show how the reference population of a species is defined has important influences on optimization results. Our findings suggest that in the real world, understanding the impact of heterogeneous land capacity on biodiversity and agricultural production is crucial to designing multi-use landscapes that jointly maximize conservation and agricultural benefits.

Functional Architecture of Deleterious Genetic Variants in the Genome of a Wrangel Island Mammoth

Woolly mammoths were among the most abundant cold-adapted species during the Pleistocene. Their once-large populations went extinct in two waves, an end-Pleistocene extinction of continental populations followed by the mid-Holocene extinction of relict populations on St. Paul Island ∼5,600 years ago and Wrangel Island ∼4,000 years ago. Wrangel Island mammoths experienced an episode of rapid demographic decline coincident with their isolation, leading to a small population, reduced genetic diversity, and the fixation of putatively deleterious alleles, but the functional consequences of these processes are unclear. Here, we show that a Wrangel Island mammoth genome had many putative deleterious mutations that are predicted to cause diverse behavioral and developmental defects. Resurrection and functional characterization of several genes from the Wrangel Island mammoth carrying putatively deleterious substitutions identified both loss and gain of function mutations in genes associated with developmental defects (HYLS1), oligozoospermia and reduced male fertility (NKD1), diabetes (NEUROG3), and the ability to detect floral scents (OR5A1). These data suggest that at least one Wrangel Island mammoth may have suffered adverse consequences from reduced population size and isolation.

Implications of the prevalence and magnitude of sustained declines for determining a minimum threshold for favourable population size

We propose a new approach to quantifying a minimum threshold value for the size of an animal population, below which that population might be categorised as having unfavourable status. Under European Union law, the concept of Favourable Conservation Status requires assessment of populations as having favourable or unfavourable status, but quantitative methods for such assessments have not yet been developed. One population threshold that is well established in conservation biology is the minimum viable population (MVP) defined as the size of a small but stable population with an acceptably low risk of extinction within a specified period. Our approach combines this small-population paradigm MVP concept with a multiplier, which is a factor by which the MVP is multiplied to allow for the risk of a sustained future decline. We demonstrate this approach using data on UK breeding bird population sizes. We used 43-year time-series data for 189 species and a qualitative assessment of population trends over almost 200 years for 229 species to examine the prevalence, duration and magnitude of sustained population declines. Our study addressed the problem of underestimation of the duration and magnitude of declines caused by short runs of monitoring data by allowing for the truncation of time series. The multiplier was derived from probability distributions of decline magnitudes within a given period, adjusted for truncation. Over a surveillance period of 100 years, we estimated that there was a 10% risk across species that a sustained population decline of at least sixteen-fold would begin. We therefore suggest that, in this case, a factor of 16 could be used as the multiplier of small-population MVPs to obtain minimum threshold population sizes for favourable status. We propose this 'MVP Multiplier' method as a new and robust approach to obtaining minimum threshold population sizes which integrates the concepts of small-population and declining-population paradigms. The minimum threshold value we propose is intended for use alongside a range of other measures to enable overall assessments of favourable conservation status.

Do We Know Enough to Save European Riverine Fish?—A Systematic Review on Autecological Requirements During Critical Life Stages of 10 Rheophilic Species at Risk

Modeling of fish population developments in the context of hydropower impacts and restoration planning requires autecological information on critical life stages (especially on juvenile stages and reproduction). We compiled and examined the current data availability in peer-reviewed and grey literature on autecological requirements of ten rheophilic fish species at risk, belonging to the salmonid, cyprinid, and cottid families. In total, 1725 data points from 223 sources were included. Economically important salmonids and the common nase were the most studied species. Grey and peer-reviewed data showed similar dispersion and variance and contributed nearly equally to the data pool of the specific species. An in-depth analysis on seven ecological parameters revealed no significant differences between both sources in terms of data availability and quality. We found substantial deficits in the data for about a quarter of the reviewed ecological parameters, in particular on individual densities in the habitats, egg development and information about juvenile stages despite the necessity of such data for more advanced population analyses. To secure fish populations in the long term, more data on basic autecological parameters is needed and grey literature might add valuable information, particularly if it relies on standardized methodologies.

The limits to population density in birds and mammals

We address two fundamental ecological questions: what are the limits to animal population density and what determines those limits? We develop simple alternative models to predict population limits in relation to body mass. A model assuming that within-species area use increases with the square of daily travel distance broadly predicts the scaling of empirical extremes of minimum density across birds and mammals. Consistent with model predictions, the estimated density range for a given mass, 'population scope', is greater for birds than for mammals. However, unlike mammals and carnivorous birds, expected broad relationships between body mass and density extremes are not supported by data on herbivorous and omnivorous birds. Our results suggest that simple constraints on mobility and energy use/supply are major determinants of the scaling of density limits, but further understanding of interactions between dietary constraints and density limits are needed to predict future wildlife population responses to anthropogenic threats.

Predictability of demographic rates based on phylogeny and biological similarity

Lack of demographic data for most of the world's threatened species is a widespread problem that precludes viability-based status assessments for species conservation. A commonly suggested solution is to use data from species that are closely related or biologically similar to the focal species. This approach assumes similar species and populations of the same species have similar demographic rates, an assumption that has yet to be thoroughly tested. We constructed a Bayesian hierarchical model with data on 425 plant species to predict demographic rates (intrinsic rate of population growth, recruit survival, juvenile survival, adult survival, and fecundity) based on biological traits and phylogenetic relatedness. Generally, we found small effects of species-level traits (except woody polycarpic species tended to have high adult survival rates that increased with plant height) and a weak phylogenetic signal for 4 of the 5 demographic parameters examined. Patterns were stronger in adult survival and fecundity than other demographic rates; however, the unexplained variances at both the species and population levels were high for all demographic rates. For species lacking demographic data, our model produced large, often inaccurate, prediction intervals that may not be useful in a management context. Our findings do not support the assumption that biologically similar or closely related species have similar demographic rates and provide further evidence that direct monitoring of focal species and populations is necessary for informing conservation status assessments.

Population Genetics and Molecular Epidemiology of Eukaryotes

Molecular epidemiology uses the distribution and organization of a pathogen's DNA to understand the distribution and determinants of disease. Since the biology of DNA for eukaryotic pathogens differs substantially from that of bacteria, the analytic approach to their molecular epidemiology can also differ. While many of the genotyping techniques presented earlier in this series, "Advances in Molecular Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases," can be applied to eukaryotes, the output must be interpreted in the light of how DNA is distributed from one generation to the next. In some cases, parasite populations can be evaluated in ways reminiscent of bacteria. They differ, however, when analyzed as sexually reproducing organisms, where all individuals are unique but the genetic composition of the population does not change unless a limited set of events occurs. It is these events (migration, mutation, nonrandom mating, selection, and genetic drift) that are of interest. At a given time, not all of them are likely to be equally important, so the list can easily be narrowed down to understand the driving forces behind the population as it is now and even what it will look like in the future. The main population characteristics measured to assess these events are differentiation and diversity, interpreted in the light of what is known about the population from observation. The population genetics of eukaryotes is important for planning and evaluation of control measures, surveillance, outbreak investigation, and monitoring of the development and spread of drug resistance. *This article is part of a curated collection.

Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions. Potential issues with each approach are evaluated, and the EL approach is recommended as the better of the two. The CDF approach suffers from the fact that extinctions that occur at any time before the specified time horizon are weighted equally, while extinctions that occur beyond the specified time horizon receive no weight at all. It also suffers from the fact that the time horizon does not correspond to any natural phenomenon, and so is impossible to specify nonarbitrarily; yet the results can depend critically on the specified value. In contrast, the EL approach has the advantage of weighting extinction time continuously, with no artificial time horizon, and the parameters of the approach (the rates of time preference and risk aversion) do correspond to natural phenomena, and so can be specified nonarbitrarily.

Catalog of Chinook Salmon Spawning Areas in Yukon River Basin in Canada and United States

Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha return to the Yukon River in northwestern North America each summer, migrating to spawning destinations from the lower river to more than 3,000 km upstream. These returns support numerous fisheries throughout the basin. Despite a long history of fisheries research and management, there is no comprehensive account of Chinook Salmon spawning areas in the basin. To address this issue, we cataloged, summarized, and mapped the known spawning areas of Yukon River Chinook Salmon by using a variety of sources including published articles, gray literature, and information archived in agency databases. Most of our sources were published within the past 30 y, but some refer to observations that were recorded as long ago as the late 1800s. We classified spawning areas as major or minor producers with three indicators of abundance: 1) quantitative estimates of escapement (major producer if ≥500 fish, minor producer if <500 fish), 2) radiotelemetry-based proportions of annual production (major producer if ≥1% of the run, minor producer if <1% of the run), and 3) aerial survey index counts (major producer if ≥165 fish observed, minor producer if <165 fish observed). We documented 183 spawning areas in the Yukon River basin, 79 in the United States, and 104 in Canada. Most spawning areas were in tributary streams, but some were in main-stem reaches as well. We classified 32 spawning areas as major producers and 151 as minor producers. The Chinook Salmon spawning areas cataloged here provide a baseline that makes it possible to strategically direct abundance, biological sampling, and genetics projects for maximum effect and to assess both spatial and temporal changes within the basin.

Immature and mature sperm morphometry in fresh and frozen-thawed falcon ejaculates

Sperm morphometry is one characteristic which may be useful in prediction of fertility and sperm freezability in a species. Knowledge of the sperm characteristics of the ejaculate and the morphometric descriptors is necessary to effectively develop sperm cryopreservation. The aim of the current study was to provide a general description of the sperm from two falcon species (Peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus peregrinus/brookei and Gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus) including immature sperm, sperm head morphometric descriptors, and the existence of mature sperm subpopulations. Semen samples were collected by massage and voluntary false copulation and diluted with Lake and Ravie medium. Smears were prepared of the diluted samples, stained with Hemacolor^®, and subjected to: 1) morphological analysis (bright field optical microscopy), and 2) computerised morphometric analysis; each sperm head was measured for length, width, area and perimeter. In addition, in the Gyrfalcon, pooled semen was frozen in pellets using DMA as a cryoprotectant and the analyses repeated after thawing. The mean percentage of immature sperm (spermatocytes and spermatids) was similarly high in all species/subspecies: Brookei Peregrine falcon (F. p. brookei) 55.5%, European Peregrine falcon (F. p. peregrinus) 65.5% and Gyrfalcon 64.7%. Clustering analyses identified four subpopulations of mature spermatozoa with different morphometric characteristics (P < 0.001). The relative proportions of these subpopulations were similar in all three species. The mean values recorded for the morphometric variables of the four subpopulations were, however, lower (P < 0.001) in the thawed Gyrfalcon samples than in fresh samples. The results support the idea of pleiomorphy as a characteristic of raptor mature sperm. This finding, plus that of the existence of four sperm subpopulations with different morphometric characteristics, may be important in the future development of cryopreservation protocols for falcon sperm.

Setting population targets for mammals using body mass as a predictor of population persistence

Conservation planning and biodiversity assessments need quantitative targets to optimize planning options and assess the adequacy of current species protection. However, targets aiming at persistence require population-specific data, which limit their use in favor of fixed and nonspecific targets, likely leading to unequal distribution of conservation efforts among species. We devised a method to derive equitable population targets; that is, quantitative targets of population size that ensure equal probabilities of persistence across a set of species and that can be easily inferred from species-specific traits. In our method, we used models of population dynamics across a range of life-history traits related to species' body mass to estimate minimum viable population targets. We applied our method to a range of body masses of mammals, from 2 g to 3825 kg. The minimum viable population targets decreased asymptotically with increasing body mass and were on the same order of magnitude as minimum viable population estimates from species- and context-specific studies. Our approach provides a compromise between pragmatic, nonspecific population targets and detailed context-specific estimates of population viability for which only limited data are available. It enables a first estimation of species-specific population targets based on a readily available trait and thus allows setting equitable targets for population persistence in large-scale and multispecies conservation assessments and planning.

Inbreeding load and purging: implications for the short-term survival and the conservation management of small populations

Using computer simulations, we evaluate the effects of genetic purging of inbreeding load in small populations, assuming genetic models of deleterious mutations which account for the typical amount of load empirically observed. Our results show that genetic purging efficiently removes the inbreeding load of both lethal and non-lethal mutations, reducing the amount of inbreeding depression relative to that expected without selection. We find that the minimum effective population size to avoid severe inbreeding depression in the short term is of the order of Ne≈70 for a wide range of species' reproductive rates. We also carried out simulations of captive breeding populations where two contrasting management methods are performed, one avoiding inbreeding (equalisation of parental contributions (EC)) and the other forcing it (circular sib mating (CM)). We show that, for the inbreeding loads considered, CM leads to unacceptably high extinction risks and, as a result, to lower genetic diversity than EC. Thus we conclude that methods aimed at enhancing purging by intentional inbreeding should not be generally advised in captive breeding conservation programmes.

The critical domain size of stochastic population models

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

Population Viability Analysis for Endangered Roanoke Logperch

A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex, an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

Genetic load, inbreeding depression, and hybrid vigor covary with population size: An empirical evaluation of theoretical predictions

Reduced population size is thought to have strong consequences for evolutionary processes as it enhances the strength of genetic drift. In its interaction with selection, this is predicted to increase the genetic load, reduce inbreeding depression, and increase hybrid vigor, and in turn affect phenotypic evolution. Several of these predictions have been tested, but comprehensive studies controlling for confounding factors are scarce. Here, we show that populations of Daphnia magna, which vary strongly in genetic diversity, also differ in genetic load, inbreeding depression, and hybrid vigor in a way that strongly supports theoretical predictions. Inbreeding depression is positively correlated with genetic diversity (a proxy for Ne ), and genetic load and hybrid vigor are negatively correlated with genetic diversity. These patterns remain significant after accounting for potential confounding factors and indicate that, in small populations, a large proportion of the segregation load is converted into fixed load. Overall, the results suggest that the nature of genetic variation for fitness-related traits differs strongly between large and small populations. This has large consequences for evolutionary processes in natural populations, such as selection on dispersal, breeding systems, ageing, and local adaptation.

Conserving tropical biodiversity via market forces and spatial targeting

The recent report from the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity [(2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3] acknowledges that ongoing biodiversity loss necessitates swift, radical action. Protecting undisturbed lands, although vital, is clearly insufficient, and the key role of unprotected, private land owned is being increasingly recognized. Seeking to avoid common assumptions of a social planner backed by government interventions, the present work focuses on the incentives of the individual landowner. We use detailed data to show that successful conservation on private land depends on three factors: conservation effectiveness (impact on target species), private costs (especially reductions in production), and private benefits (the extent to which conservation activities provide compensation, for example, by enhancing the value of remaining production). By examining the high-profile issue of palm-oil production in a major tropical biodiversity hotspot, we show that the levels of both conservation effectiveness and private costs are inherently spatial; varying the location of conservation activities can radically change both their effectiveness and private cost implications. We also use an economic choice experiment to show that consumers' willingness to pay for conservation-grade palm-oil products has the potential to incentivize private producers sufficiently to engage in conservation activities, supporting vulnerable International Union for Conservation of Nature Red Listed species. However, these incentives vary according to the scale and efficiency of production and the extent to which conservation is targeted to optimize its cost-effectiveness. Our integrated, interdisciplinary approach shows how strategies to harness the power of the market can usefully complement existing--and to-date insufficient--approaches to conservation.