Dispersal: The Eighth Fire Seasonality Effect on Plants

O armário: Fruiting phenology data for 4,462 plant taxa in Portugal (1926-2013)

Species phenology - the timing of key life events - is being altered by ongoing climate changes with yet underappreciated consequences for ecosystem stability. While flowering is generally occurring earlier, we know much less about other key processes such as the time of fruit ripening, largely due to the lack of comprehensive long-term datasets. Here we provide information on the exact date and site where seeds of 4,462 taxa were collected for the Index Seminum (seed exchange catalogue) of the Botanic Garden of the University of Coimbra, between 1926 and 2013. Seeds were collected from spontaneous and cultivated individuals across Portugal, including both native and introduced taxa. The database consists of 127,747 curated records with information on the species, or infraspecific taxa (including authority), and the day and site where seeds were collected. All records are georeferenced and provided with a confidence interval for the collection site. Taxonomy was first curated manually by in-house botanists and then harmonized according to the GBIF backbone taxonomy.

Climate change may shift metapopulations towards unstable source-sink dynamics in a fire-killed, serotinous shrub

Climate change, with warming and drying weather conditions, is reducing the growth, seed production, and survival of fire-adapted plants in fire-prone regions such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. These effects of climate change on local plant demographics have recently been shown to reduce the persistence time of local populations of the fire-killed shrub Banksia hookeriana dramatically. In principle, extinctions of local populations may be partly compensated by recolonization events through long-distance dispersal mechanisms of seeds, such as post-fire wind and bird-mediated dispersal, facilitating persistence in spatially structured metapopulations. However, to what degree and under which assumptions metapopulation dynamics might compensate for the drastically increased local extinction risk remains to be explored. Given the long timespans involved and the complexity of interwoven local and regional processes, mechanistic, process-based models are one of the most suitable approaches to systematically explore the potential role of metapopulation dynamics and its underlying ecological assumptions for fire-prone ecosystems. Here we extend a recent mechanistic, process-based, spatially implicit population model for the well-studied fire-killed and serotinous shrub species B. hookeriana to a spatially explicit metapopulation model. We systematically tested the effects of different ecological processes and assumptions on metapopulation dynamics under past (1988-2002) and current (2003-2017) climatic conditions, including (i) effects of different spatio-temporal fires, (ii) effects of (likely) reduced intraspecific plant competition under current conditions and (iii) effects of variation in plant performance among and within patches. In general, metapopulation dynamics had the potential to increase the overall regional persistence of B. hookeriana. However, increased population persistence only occurred under specific optimistic assumptions. In both climate scenarios, the highest persistence occurred with larger fires and intermediate to long inter-fire intervals. The assumption of lower intraspecific plant competition caused by lower densities under current conditions alone was not sufficient to increase persistence significantly. To achieve long-term persistence (defined as >400 years) it was necessary to additionally consider empirically observed variation in plant performance among and within patches, that is, improved habitat quality in some large habitat patches (≥7) that could function as source patches and a higher survival rate and seed production for a subset of plants, specifically the top 25% of flower producers based on current climate conditions monitoring data. Our model results demonstrate that the impacts of ongoing climate change on plant demographics are so severe that even under optimistic assumptions, the existing metapopulation dynamics shift to an unstable source-sink dynamic state. Based on our findings, we recommend increased research efforts to understand the consequences of intraspecific trait variation on plant demographics, emphasizing the variation of individual traits both among and within populations. From a conservation perspective, we encourage fire and land managers to revise their prescribed fire plans, which are typically short interval, small fires, as they conflict with the ecologically appropriate spatio-temporal fire regime for B. hookeriana, and likely as well for many other fire-killed species.

Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity

The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λ_S . Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λ_S decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λ_S . Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.

Fire Seasonality, Seasonal Temperature Cues, Dormancy Cycling, and Moisture Availability Mediate Post-fire Germination of Species With Physiological Dormancy

Fire seasonality (the time of year of fire occurrence) has important implications for a wide range of demographic processes in plants, including seedling recruitment. However, the underlying mechanisms of fire-driven recruitment of species with physiological seed dormancy remain poorly understood, limiting effective fire and conservation management, with insights hampered by common methodological practices and complex dormancy and germination requirements. We sought to identify the mechanisms that regulate germination of physiologically dormant species in nature and assess their sensitivity to changes in fire seasonality. We employed a combination of laboratory-based germination trials and burial-retrieval trials in natural populations of seven species of Boronia (Rutaceae) to characterize seasonal patterns in dormancy and fire-stimulated germination over a 2-year period and synthesized the observed patterns into a conceptual model of fire seasonality effects on germination. The timing and magnitude of seedling emergence was mediated by seasonal dormancy cycling and seasonal temperature cues, and their interactions with fire seasonality, the degree of soil heating expected during a fire, and the duration of imbibition. Primary dormancy was overcome within 4-10 months' burial and cycled seasonally. Fire-associated heat and smoke stimulated germination once dormancy was alleviated, with both cues required in combination by some species. For some species, germination was restricted to summer temperatures (a strict seasonal requirement), while others germinated over a broader seasonal range of temperatures but exhibited seasonal preferences through greater responses at warmer or cooler temperatures. The impacts of fires in different seasons on germination can vary in strength and direction, even between sympatric congeners, and are strongly influenced by moisture availability (both the timing of post-fire rainfall and the duration soils stay moist enough for germination). Thus, fire seasonality and fire severity (via its effect on soil heating) are expected to significantly influence post-fire emergence patterns in these species and others with physiological dormancy, often leading to "germination interval squeeze." Integration of these concepts into current fire management frameworks is urgently required to ensure best-practice conservation. This is especially pertinent given major, ongoing shifts in fire seasonality and rainfall patterns across the globe due to climate change and increasing anthropogenic ignitions.

Experimental seed sowing reveals seedling recruitment vulnerability to unseasonal fire

Unseasonal fire occurrence is increasing globally, driven by climate change and other human activity. Changed timing of fire can inhibit postfire seedling recruitment through interactions with plant phenology (the timing of key processes, e.g., flower initiation, seed production, dispersal, germination), and therefore threaten the persistence of many plant species. Although empirical evidence from winter-rainfall ecosystems shows that optimal seedling recruitment is expected following summer and autumn (dry season) fires, we sought experimental evidence isolating the mechanisms of poor recruitment following unseasonal (wet season) fire. We implemented a seed-sowing experiment using nine species native to fire-prone, Mediterranean-climate woodlands in southwestern Australia to emulate the timing of postfire recruitment and test key mechanisms of fire seasonality effects. For seeds sown during months when fire is unseasonal (i.e., August-September: end of the wet winter season), seedling recruitment was reduced by up to 99% relative to seeds sown during seasonal fire months (i.e., May-June: end of the dry summer season) because of varying seed persistence, seedling emergence, and seedling survival. We found that up to 70 times more seedlings emerged when seeds were sown during seasonal fire months compared to when seeds were sown during unseasonal fire months. The few seedlings that emerged from unseasonal sowings all died with the onset of the dry season. Of the seeds that failed to germinate from unseasonal sowings, only 2% survived exposure on the soil surface over the ensuing hot and dry summer. Our experimental results demonstrate the potential for unseasonal fire to inhibit seedling recruitment via impacts on pregermination seed persistence and seedling establishment. As ongoing climate change lengthens fire seasons (i.e., unseasonal wildfires become more common) and managed fires are implemented further outside historically typical fire seasons, postfire seedling recruitment may become more vulnerable to failure, causing shifts in plant community composition towards those with fewer species solely dependent on seeds for regeneration.