Forecasting the future of life in Antarctica

Microscale is key to model current and future Maritime Antarctic vegetation

Despite being one of the most pristine regions in the world, Antarctica is currently also one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Antarctic vegetation comprises mostly lichens and bryophytes, complemented in some milder regions of Maritime Antarctica by two vascular plant species. Shifts in the spatial patterns of these three main vegetation groups have already been observed in response to climate change, highlighting the urgent need for the development of comprehensive large-scale ecological models of the effects of climate change. Besides climate, Antarctic terrestrial vegetation is also strongly influenced by non-climatic microscale conditions related to abiotic and biotic factors. Nevertheless, the quantification of their importance in determining vegetation patterns remains unclear. The objective of this work was to quantify the importance of abiotic and biotic microscale conditions in determining the spatial cover patterns of the major functional types, lichens, vascular plants and bryophytes, explicitly determining the likely confinement of each functional type to the microscale conditions, i.e., their ecological niche. Microscale explained >60 % of the spatial variation of lichens and bryophytes and 30 % of vascular plants, with the niche analysis suggesting that each of the three functional types may be likely confined to specific microscale conditions in the studied gradient. Models indicate that the main microscale ecological filters are abiotic but show the potential benefits of including biotic variables and point to the need for further clarification of vegetation biotic interactions' role in these ecosystems. Altogether, these results point to the need for the inclusion of microscale drivers in ecological models to track and forecast climate change effects, as they are crucial to explain present vegetation patterns in response to climate, and for the interpretation of ecological model results under a climate change perspective.

Trends in Antarctic soil fungal research in the context of environmental changes

Antarctic soils represent one of the most pristine environments on Earth, where highly adapted and often endemic microbial species withstand multiple extremes. Specifically, fungal diversity is extremely low in Antarctic soils and species distribution and diversity are still not fully characterized in the continent. Despite the unique features of this environment and the international interest in its preservation, several factors pose severe threats to the conservation of inhabiting ecosystems. In this light, we aimed to provide an overview of the effects on fungal communities of the main changes endangering the soils of the continent. Among these, the increasing human presence, both for touristic and scientific purposes, has led to increased use of fuels for transport and energy supply, which has been linked to an increase in unintentional environmental contamination. It has been reported that several fungal species have evolved cellular processes in response to these soil contamination episodes, which may be exploited for restoring contaminated areas at low temperatures. Additionally, the effects of climate change are another significant threat to Antarctic ecosystems, with the expected merging of previously isolated ecosystems and their homogenization. A possible reduction of biodiversity due to the disappearance of well-adapted, often endemic species, as well as an increase of biodiversity, due to the spreading of non-native, more competitive species have been suggested. Despite some studies describing the specialization of fungal communities and their correlation with environmental parameters, our comprehension of how soil communities may respond to these changes remains limited. The majority of studies attempting to precisely define the effects of climate change, including in situ and laboratory simulations, have mainly focused on the bacterial components of these soils, and further studies are necessary, including the other biotic components.