Serologic and molecular biomarkers for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Challenges related to clinical decision-making in hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence post-liver transplantation: Is there a hope?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common liver malignancy and represents a serious cause of cancer-related mortality and morbidity. One of the favourable curative surgical therapeutic options for HCC is liver transplantation (LT) in selected patients fulfilling the known standard Milan/University of California San Francisco criteria which have shown better outcomes and longer-term survival. Despite careful adherence to the strict HCC selection criteria for LT in different transplant centres, the recurrence rate still occurs which could negatively affect HCC patients’ survival. Hence HCC recurrence post-LT could predict patients’ survival and prognosis, depending on the exact timing of recurrence after LT (early or late), and whether intra/extrahepatic HCC recurrence. Several factors may aid in such a complication, particularly tumour-related criteria including larger sizes, higher grades or poor tumour differentiation, microvascular invasion, and elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein. Therefore, managing such cases is challenging, different therapeutic options have been proposed, including curative surgical and ablative treatments that have shown better outcomes, compared to the palliative locoregional and systemic therapies, which may be helpful in those with unresectable tumour burden. To handle all these issues in our review.

Research progress of protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common pathologic type of primary liver cancer. Liver transplantation (LT) is a radical strategy for treating patients with early-stage HCC, which may lead to a better prognosis compared to hepatectomy and ablation. However, survival of patients who develop HCC recurrence after LT is short, and early recurrence is the most common cause of death. Thus, efficient biomarkers are also needed in LT to guide precision therapy to improve patient prognosis and 5-year survival. Protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II) is an abnormal prothrombin that cannot activate coagulation, and it is significantly increased in patients with HCC, obstructive jaundice, and those taking vitamin K antagonists. Over the past decades, substantial progress has been made in the study of PIVKA-II in diagnosing, surveilling, and treating HCC, but its role in LT still needs to be elaborated. In this review, we focused on the role of PIVKA-II as a biomarker in LT for HCC, especially its relationship with clinicopathologic features, early recurrence, long-term survival, and donor-recipient selection.

Association of Serum Levels and Immunohistochemical Labelling of Des-Gamma-Carboxy-Prothrombin in Patients Undergoing Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular cancer (HCC) is one of the main reasons for liver transplantation (LT). Biomarkers, such as alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) and Des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP), can be helpful in defining the recurrence risk post LT. This study aims to evaluate the association between the intensity of DCP immunohistochemical labelling and serum DCP levels in patients undergoing LT for HCC. We carried out a prospective monocentric study including patients who all underwent LT for cirrhosis between 2016 and 2018 and all fell under the Milan criteria. The accepted diagnostic criteria for HCC were contrast-enhanced imaging and histology. Thirty-nine patients were followed for a median of 21 months, with HCC lesions categorized into negative, focally positive, and diffusely positive groups based on DCP immunohistochemistry. The serum DCP levels were significantly higher in the positive groups (258 mAU/mL for the focally and 257 mAU/mL for the diffusely positive) than in the negative group (48 mAU/mL) (p = 0.005) at diagnosis and at the time of liver transplantation (220 mAU/mL for the diffuse positive group). Microvascular invasion (58.8% vs. 19.0% for the diffusely positive and negative groups, respectively, p < 0.001) and lesion size (20 mm in the diffusely labelled group versus 12 mm in the other groups, p = 0.002) were significantly correlated with DCP labelling. Late recurrence occurred only in the positive groups; in the negative group, it occurred within the first 3 months after transplantation. DCP labelling in liver lesions correlates with serum levels and a more aggressive tumour profile. Further investigation is needed to determine if highly DCP-labelled tumours allow for the better selection of high-risk patients before LT.

The Role of PIVKA-II as a Predictor of Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence-Free Survival after Liver Transplantation in a Low Alpha-Fetoprotein Population

INTRODUCTION

AFP and the RETREAT score are currently used to predict HCC recurrence after LT. However, superior discriminating models are needed for low AFP populations. The aim of this study is to investigate the predictive value of PIVKA-II on recurrence-free survival after LT in a low AFP population and microvascular invasion on explant.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study including all consecutive patients transplanted for HCC between 1989 and 2019 in the Erasmus MC University Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used. AFP and PIVKA-II levels were determined in serum samples collected at the time of transplantation. Data on tumor load and microvascular invasion were retrieved from patients' records.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 121 patients, with HCC recurrence in 15 patients (12.4%). The median AFP was 7.7 ng/mL (4.4-20.2), and the median PIVKA-II was 72.0 mAU/mL (41.0-213.5). Patients with low AFP (≤8 ng/mL) and PIVKA-II (≤90 mAU/mL) had a 5-year recurrence-free survival of 100% compared to 85.7% in patients with low AFP and high PIVKA-II (p = 0.026). Regardless of the AFP level, patients within the Milan criteria (based on explant pathology) with a low PIVKA-II level had a 5-year recurrence-free survival of 100% compared to patients with a high PIVKA-II level of 81.1% (p = 0.002). In patients with microvascular invasion, the AUC for PIVKA-II was slightly better than the AUC for AFP (0.775 vs. 0.687).

CONCLUSIONS

The dual model of PIVKA-II ≤ 90 mAU/mL with either AFP ≤ 8 ng/mL or with patients within the Milan criteria identifies patient groups which can be exempted from HCC surveillance after LT in a low AFP population. PIVKA-II may be a better predictor for explant microvascular invasion than AFP and could play a role in future models identifying LT candidates with the highest risk for HCC recurrence.

Molecular Clues for Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation

Recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the commonest causes of cancer-related mortality. Thus, advances in the HCC molecular features have paid researchers great attention to identifying the different risk factors that could aid in liver cancer initiation and progression for earlier prediction of post-operative HCC recurrence risk. Our review has focused on the possible molecular onco-drivers' for HCC recurrence post-LT that may represent diagnostic/prognostic tools and scoring models for the proper selection of LT candidates with HCC.

Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Posttreatment Recurrence in Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using Pretreatment Clinical and MRI Features: A Proof-of-Concept Study

BACKGROUND. Posttreatment recurrence is an unpredictable complication after liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that is associated with poor survival. Biomarkers are needed to estimate recurrence risk before organ allocation. OBJECTIVE. This proof-of-concept study evaluated the use of machine learning (ML) to predict recurrence from pretreatment laboratory, clinical, and MRI data in patients with early-stage HCC initially eligible for liver transplant. METHODS. This retrospective study included 120 patients (88 men, 32 women; median age, 60.0 years) with early-stage HCC diagnosed who were initially eligible for liver transplant and underwent treatment by transplant, resection, or thermal ablation between June 2005 and March 2018. Patients underwent pretreatment MRI and posttreatment imaging surveillance. Imaging features were extracted from postcontrast phases of pretreatment MRI examinations using a pretrained convolutional neural network. Pretreatment clinical characteristics (including laboratory data) and extracted imaging features were integrated to develop three ML models (clinical model, imaging model, combined model) for predicting recurrence within six time frames ranging from 1 through 6 years after treatment. Kaplan-Meier analysis with time to recurrence as the endpoint was used to assess the clinical relevance of model predictions. RESULTS. Tumor recurred in 44 of 120 (36.7%) patients during follow-up. The three models predicted recurrence with AUCs across the six time frames of 0.60-0.78 (clinical model), 0.71-0.85 (imaging model), and 0.62-0.86 (combined model). The mean AUC was higher for the imaging model than the clinical model (0.76 vs 0.68, respectively; p = .03), but the mean AUC was not significantly different between the clinical and combined models or between the imaging and combined models (p > .05). Kaplan-Meier curves were significantly different between patients predicted to be at low risk and those predicted to be at high risk by all three models for the 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, and 6-year time frames (p < .05). CONCLUSION. The findings suggest that ML-based models can predict recurrence before therapy allocation in patients with early-stage HCC initially eligible for liver transplant. Adding MRI data as model input improved predictive performance over clinical parameters alone. The combined model did not surpass the imaging model's performance. CLINICAL IMPACT. ML-based models applied to currently underutilized imaging features may help design more reliable criteria for organ allocation and liver transplant eligibility.

Low-dose PD-1 inhibitor combined with lenvatinib for preemptive treatment of recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Case report and literature review

Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), as one of the curative methods for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has brought hope to patients with HCC. However, treatment options for HCC recurrence and metastasis after liver transplantation are limited. Immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI), such as programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) inhibitor, have been successfully used in advanced or metastatic HCC, but the data on the safety of PD-1 inhibitor after liver transplantation is limited. In this article, we report a 47-year-old patient with acute-on-chronic liver failure and multiple HCC who was successfully treated with liver transplantation. On the 45th day after OLT, the patient’s alpha fetoprotein (AFP) and lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of AFP (AFP-L3) were increased, and imaging examination showed no residual tumor. The patient had high risk factors for tumor recurrence before operation, so the possibility of tumor recurrence was considered. When the tumor markers showed an upward trend, we immediately treated the patient with lenvatinib 8 mg, after half a month, the AFP and AFP-L3 continued to increase compared with before. Then we used low-dose nivolumab 40mg, the patient’s AFP and AFP-L3 gradually decreased. One month later, a second low-dose nivolumab 40mg was given, and the patient’s tumor markers gradually decreased to normal. No acute rejection and other complications occurred during the treatment. So far, we have followed up this patient for 2 years, and no tumor recurrence was observed. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case using a low dose of nivolumab in combination with lenvatinib to prevent recurrence of HCC after liver transplantation.

External Validation of the RETREAT Score for Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence after Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Liver transplantation (LT) is a potentially curative treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but is frequently complicated by HCC recurrence. In order to estimate the recurrence risk a novel risk score was developed in the United States: the Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT). External validation of this novel risk score, in a different patient population with other LT selection criteria, is needed. In this study we demonstrate that the RETREAT score is able to predict the risk of HCC recurrence after liver transplantation in a European population. These findings may be used to inform patients of recurrence risk and as a basis for studies on surveillance strategies.

Abstract

Background. We aimed to externally validate the performance of the RETREAT score in a European population. Methods. This single center retrospective cohort study enrolled all consecutive patients with HCC who underwent LT between 1989 and 2019. The performance of RETREAT was assessed in the overall population and after stratification between being within or beyond the Milan criteria based on the explant pathology report. Recurrence probabilities were estimated by using the Kaplan–Meier method and compared by log-rank test. Results. We studied 203 patients; 42 patients were beyond the Milan criteria based on explant pathology. The median follow-up was 26.8 months (IQR 7.2–60.7). Overall cumulative HCC recurrence rates were 10.6%, 21.3%, and 23.0% at 2, 5, and 10 years, with the majority of recurrences extrahepatic and at multiple sites. Higher RETREAT scores were associated with higher recurrence rates, with a 10-year recurrence rate of 60.5% in patients with RETREAT ≥ 3 (n = 65), compared to 6.2% in those with RETREAT ≤2 (n = 138; p < 0.001). HCC recurrence rates were even lower in patients within the Milan criteria who also had a low RETREAT score (n = 122; 2.7% at 10 years). Conclusion. Low RETREAT scores identify patients at low risk of HCC recurrence after LT in patients within the Milan criteria based on explant pathology.

Experience With LDLT in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Portal Vein Tumor Thrombosis Postdownstaging

BACKGROUND

Median survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is 2-6 months; conventionally liver transplantation is contraindicated.

METHODS

We studied outcomes following living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) post-PVTT downstaging (DS) with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), and tumor ablation (with transarterial chemo- or radio-embolization).

RESULTS

Of 2348 consecutive LDLTs, 451 were for HCC, including 25 with PVTT (mainly Vp1-3) after successful DS and 20 with Vp1/2 PVTT without previous treatment. DS was attempted in 43, was successful in 27 (63%), and 25 underwent LDLT. Median alpha fetoprotein (AFP) at diagnosis and pre-LDLT were 78.1 ng/mL (3-58 200) and 55 ng/mL (2-7320), respectively. Mean DS to LDLT time was 10.2 weeks (5-16). Excluding 2 postoperative deaths, 1- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were 82%, 57%, and 77%, 51%, respectively, comparable to survival in 382 HCC patients without PVTT undergoing upfront LDLT (5-y OS 65%, P = 0.06; RFS 66%, P = 0.33, respectively). There was a trend toward better OS in DS+LDLT versus non-DS LDLT group (5-y OS/RFS-48%/40%). OS was significantly better than in HCC-PVTT patients receiving no intervention or palliative Sorafenib alone (1-y OS of 0%) or Sorafenib with TARE/SBRT (2-y OS of 17%) at our center during the study period. Initial AFP <400 ng/mL and AFP fall (initial minus pre-LDLT) >2000 ng/mL predicted better RFS; Grade III/IV predicted worse OS in DS patients.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC patients with PVTT can achieve acceptable survival with LDLT after successful DS. Low initial AFP level, a significant drop in AFP with DS and low tumor grade, favorably influence survival in these patients.

Des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin affects the survival of HCC patients with marginal liver function and curative treatment: ACRoS1402

PURPOSE

Considering the initial treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the best prognostic index for Child-Pugh classes B and C (CP-BC) patients has not been yet established. This study aimed to elucidate the risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in multicenter patients with a poor liver functional reserve after curative treatment.

METHODS

Between April 2000 and April 2014, 212 CP-BC patients who received treatment in five high-volume centers in Japan were included in this study. CP-B and C patients were 206 and 6, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for DFS and OS were performed to estimate the risk factors.

RESULTS

The mean observation time was 1132 days. Mean Child-Pugh score and indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min were 7.5 and 31.5%, respectively. Histological chronic hepatitis and liver cirrhosis were observed in 20% and 74% patients, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, the risk factors for DFS were des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) [hazard ratio (HR), 1.6; P = 0.012] and treatment without liver transplantation. Moreover, DCP was identified as an independent risk factor for OS (HR, 1.7; P = 0.01). Tumor size, number, tumor thrombus, Milan criteria, liver cirrhosis, and treatment without liver transplantation were not identified as risk factors for OS. The 5-year OS in patients with high serum DCP levels (< 90 mAU/mL) was significantly better than that in those with low serum DCP levels (P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum DCP value before treatment predicted both DFS and OS in CP-BC patients with HCC.

Role of Allelic Imbalance in Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) Recurrence Risk After Liver Transplant

Background

One of the most controversial problems for liver transplantation in patients affected by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains the lack of an oncologic staging system to predict cancer recurrence after liver transplantation (LT). We analyzed allelic imbalance (AI) in 19 microsatellites, and assessed the post-LT HCC recurrence risk.

Material/Methods

Seventy-one patients were included; 18 had tumor recurrence within 5 years post-transplant. Molecular analysis was done in the primary HCC and peripheral blood samples: a total of 19 microsatellites was used to assess AI. Specific AI was evaluated when outside of range value between 0.66 and 1.5. Based on data in the literature, we grouped the 19 microsatellites into 4 panels. We calculated the fractional allelic imbalance (FAI) to make comparisons between different panels including different subsets of microsatellites.

Results

We report that AI was associated with HCC recurrence in 3 main loci (D3S2303, D9S251, and D9S254). Tumor recurrence was associated only with 2 specific panels with 9 microsatellites previously reported to be associated with high risk for HCC recurrence. Our data show that fractional allelic imbalance (FAI) index has good negative ability to predict HCC recurrence (Panel 2: negative predictive value of 95%).

Conclusions

AI analysis could have prognostic value in risk management of HCC recurrence after LT, especially for early recurrence.

Expanded living-donor liver transplantation criteria for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma based on the Japanese nationwide survey: the 5-5-500 rule - a retrospective study

Expansion of the liver transplantation indication criteria for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has long been debated. Here we propose new, expanded living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) criteria for HCC patients based on a retrospective data analysis of the Japanese nationwide survey. A total of 965 HCC patients undergoing LDLT were included, 301 (31%) of whom were beyond the Milan criteria. Here, we applied the Greenwood formula to investigate new criteria enabling the maximal enrollment of candidates while securing a 5-year recurrence rate (95% upper confidence limit) below 10% by examining various combinations of tumor numbers and serum alpha-fetoprotein values, and maintaining the maximal nodule diameter at 5 cm. Finally, new expanded criteria for LDLT candidates with HCC, the 5-5-500 rule (nodule size ≤5 cm in diameter, nodule number ≤5, and alfa-fetoprotein value ≤500 ng/ml), were established as a new regulation with a 95% confidence interval of a 5-year recurrence rate of 7.3% (5.2-9.3) and a 19% increase in the number of eligible patients. In addition, the 5-5-500 rule could identify patients at high risk of recurrence, among those within and beyond the Milan criteria. In conclusion, the new criteria - the 5-5-500 rule - might provide rational expansion for LDLT candidates with HCC.

Selecting patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation: incorporating tumor biology criteria

Liver transplantation (LT) is the optimal therapeutic option for patients with liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Due to universal donor shortage, only the patients with limited tumor burden (under the so-called Milan criteria) are considered as potential candidates for LT in most institutions. It is expected that in the near future, more liver grafts will be available for patients with HCC due to the implementation of new direct antivirals against hepatitis C, leaving a prone scenario to consider expanding Milan criteria. A moderate expansion of Milan criteria could be implemented without increasing the risk of tumor recurrence if patients with favorable biological behavior are carefully selected. Incorporating information regarding tumor biology in the decision-making algorithm would result in a more rational use of LT in patients with HCC. In the present review, surrogate markers of tumor biology are critically evaluated as potential tools to be combined with existing radiological criteria. In addition, the current state of liquid biopsy is discussed, as this cutting-edge technology may reshape the management of HCC in the upcoming years.

New prognostic biomarkers of mortality in patients undergoing liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

The outcome prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT) was classically established using various macromorphological factors and serum alpha-fetoprotein levels prior to LT. However, other biomarkers have recently been reported to be associated with the prognosis of HCC patients undergoing to LT. This review summarizes clinical data on these new biomarkers. High blood levels of malondialdehyde, total antioxidant capacity, caspase-cleaved cytokeratin-18, soluble CD40 ligand, substance P, C-reactive protein, and vascular endothelial growth factor, increased neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio in blood, high peripheral blood expression of human telomerase reverse transcriptase messenger ribonucleic acid, and high HCC expression of dickkopf-1 have recently been associated with decreased survival rates. In addition, high blood levels of des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin, and high HCC expression of glypican-3, E-cadherin and beta-catenin have been associated with increased HCC recurrence. Additional research is necessary to establish the prognostic role of these biomarkers in HCC prior to LT. Furthermore, some of these biomarkers are also interesting because their potential modulation could help to create new research lines for improving the outcomes of those patients.

Hepatitis B virus surface gene pre-S2 mutant as a high-risk serum marker for hepatoma recurrence after curative hepatic resection

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The pre-S₂ mutant large HBV surface antigen (LHBS) is highly associated with HCC. This study analyzed the expression of the large form of surface protein in tumors and evaluated the LHBS with mutations within the pre-S₂ region as a high-risk recurrence marker in HCC patients after curative hepatic resection. By analyses using immunohistochemical staining (n = 12) and western blotting (n = 22), the HBV surface protein, which is mainly comprised of the major form of HBV surface antigen, was greatly diminished in the tumors. However, LHBS was not significantly decreased in tumorous regions, suggesting that LHBS maintains its expression in cancer development. A cohort of 175 patients with HBV-related HCC who underwent curative hepatic resection was analyzed for pre-S gene mutations using Pre-S Gene Chip. Results of the multivariate regression analysis showed that the serum pre-S₂ mutant level and the American Joint Committee on Cancer stage were the two main independent high-risk factors for recurrence. A Cox proportional hazards analysis also revealed a prediction model, which indicated the recurrence-free survival rate along with the time after surgery; this was developed and further validated in an independent HCC cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the model showed close sensitivities in the main and validation cohorts (area under the curve values, 0.741 and 0.704, respectively). Conclusion: Unlike the major HBV surface antigen, LHBS is mostly expressed in the tumorous regions of HBV-induced HCC, indicating that it plays a unique role in tumor progression; the relative level of pre-S₂ mutant in serum is, independently of tumor stage, an important high-risk marker for HCC recurrence after primary hepatic resection. (Hepatology 2018).

Vascular invasion and survival after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a study from the European Liver Transplant Registry

BACKGROUND

Studies suggest that vascular invasion may be a superior prognostic marker compared with traditional selection criteria, e.g. Milan criteria. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of micro and macrovascular invasion in a large database material.

METHODS

Patients liver transplanted for HCC and cirrhosis registered in the European Liver Transplant Registry (ELTR) database were included. The association between the Milan criteria, Up-to-seven criteria and vascular invasion with overall survival and HCC specific survival was investigated with univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Of 23,124 patients transplanted for HCC, 9324 had cirrhosis and data on explant pathology. Patients without microvascular invasion, regardless of number and size of HCC nodules, had a five-year overall survival of 73.2%, which was comparable with patients inside both Milan and Up-to-seven criteria. Patients without macrovascular invasion had an only marginally reduced survival of 70.7% after five years. Patients outside both Milan and Up-to-seven criteria without micro or macrovascular invasion still had a five-year overall survival of 65.8%.

CONCLUSION

Vascular invasion as a prognostic indicator remains superior to criteria based on size and number of nodules. With continuously improving imaging studies, microvascular invasion may be used for selecting patients for transplantation in the future.

Metroticket 2.0 Model for Analysis of Competing Risks of Death After Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Outcomes of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are determined by cancer-related and non-related events. Treatments for hepatitis C virus infection have reduced non-cancer events among patients receiving liver transplants, so reducing HCC-related death might be an actionable end point. We performed a competing-risk analysis to evaluate factors associated with survival of patients with HCC and developed a prognostic model based on features of HCC patients before liver transplantation.

METHODS

We performed multivariable competing-risk regression analysis to identify factors associated with HCC-specific death of patients who underwent liver transplantation. The training set comprised 1018 patients who underwent liver transplantation for HCC from January 2000 through December 2013 at 3 tertiary centers in Italy. The validation set comprised 341 consecutive patients who underwent liver transplantation for HCC during the same period at the Liver Cancer Institute in Shanghai, China. We collected pretransplantation data on etiology of liver disease, number and size of tumors, patient level of α-fetoprotein (AFP), model for end-stage liver disease score, tumor stage, numbers and types of treatment, response to treatments, tumor grade, microvascular invasion, dates, and causes of death. Death was defined as HCC-specific when related to HCC recurrence after transplantation, disseminated extra- and/or intrahepatic tumor relapse and worsened liver function in presence of tumor spread. The cumulative incidence of death was segregated for hepatitis C virus status.

RESULTS

In the competing-risk regression, the sum of tumor number and size and of log₁₀ level of AFP were significantly associated with HCC-specific death (P < .001), returning an average c-statistic of 0.780 (95% confidence interval, 0.763-0.798). Five-year cumulative incidence of non-HCC-related death was 8.6% in HCV-negative patients and 18.1% in HCV-positive patients. For patients with HCC to have a 70% chance of HCC-specific survival 5 years after transplantation, their level of AFP should be <200 ng/mL and the sum of number and size of tumors (in centimeters) should not exceed 7; if the level of AFP was 200-400 ng/mL, the sum of the number and size of tumors should be ≤5; if their level of AFP was 400-1000 ng/mL, the sum of the number and size of tumors should be ≤4. In the validation set, the model identified patients who survived 5 years after liver transplantation with 0.721 accuracy (95% confidence interval, 0.648%-0.793%). Our model, based on patients' level of AFP and HCC number and size, outperformed the Milan; University of California, San Francisco; Shanghai-Fudan; Up-to-7 criteria (P < .001); and AFP French model (P = .044) to predict which patients will survive for 5 years after liver transplantation.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a model based on level of AFP, tumor size, and tumor number, to determine risk of death from HCC-related factors after liver transplantation. This model might be used to select end points and refine selection criteria for liver transplantation for patients with HCC. To predict 5-year survival and risk of HCC-related death using an online calculator, please see www.hcc-olt-metroticket.org/. ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT02898415.

Biomarkers in hepatocellular carcinoma: an overview

Current methods for HCC diagnosis have not an optimal diagnostic accuracy. The detection of more than one biomarker seems to improve their individual performance and provide an accurate HCC diagnosis approach. Individual gene expression seems to influence whether or not the treatment is successful, since several molecules have interfere with cancer associated pathways and have been related to poor prognosis which condition the lack of effective treatment options. Areas covered: Novel biomarkers have been proposed as a useful tool in each patient prognosis. This article aims to review the recent evidence based on HCC biomarkers which seems to have a regulative role according to tumor cell development leading to a specific biological response. Epigenetic regulation, miRNAs, and genome sequencing analysis propose molecular expression signatures as novel biomarkers which allowed achieve the major goal for the use of biomarkers in clinical practice. Moreover, a deeper analysis for determine the diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers has been made. Expert commentary: To improve of methodological designs and sample sizes are needed in order to support the role of biomarkers in HCC. Furthermore, is necessary to consider HCC etiologies and all clinic disease context to carried out clinical phase studies to thrust biomarkers application.