Vivid bad outcome influences the decisions of older adults about treatment timing: a randomized field experiment with an abdominal aortic aneurysm analog

Effect of specialty and recent experience on perioperative decision-making for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether recent experience and specialty choice would affect physician adherence to evidence-based guidelines.

DESIGN

In a series of computer-simulated encounters, participants weighed the risk of spontaneous abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture against the risk of perioperative death to determine timing for elective repair. Guideline recommendations and statistical information on the risks of rupture and surgical death were provided.

SETTING

Annual meetings of the American Geriatrics Society, American College of Surgeons, and American Society of Anesthesiologists.

PARTICIPANTS

Physicians.

INTERVENTION

Before the simulation, each participant was randomly exposed to one of three simulated outcomes: death during watchful waiting (WWD), perioperative death (PD), or successful outcome (SO).

MEASUREMENTS

Adherence to recommended guidelines for AAA treatment.

RESULTS

Against guideline recommendations, 67% of geriatricians, 74% of anesthesiologists, and 77% of surgeons chose surgery when the rupture risk was lower than the risk of perioperative death (P < .05). Surgeons exposed to the WWD experience chose surgery significantly earlier than if they were exposed to a PD or SO experience (P < .001). Anesthesiologist choices did not differ with recent experience.

CONCLUSION

Geriatrician decisions more closely followed guideline recommendations for AAA management than those of two other specialties typically involved in AAA care. A prior WWD affected surgeons most, geriatricians next, and anesthesiologists least. Geriatricians referring patients for AAA surgery should be aware of specialty-specific differences in perioperative decision behavior.

Risk as feelings in the effect of patient outcomes on physicians' future treatment decisions: a randomized trial and manipulation validation

The present study tested predictions derived from the Risk as Feelings hypothesis about the effects of prior patients' negative treatment outcomes on physicians' subsequent treatment decisions. Two experiments at The University of Chicago, U.S.A., utilized a computer simulation of an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patient with enhanced realism to present participants with one of three experimental conditions: AAA rupture causing a watchful waiting death (WWD), perioperative death (PD), or a successful operation (SO), as well as the statistical treatment guidelines for AAA. Experiment 1 tested effects of these simulated outcomes on (n = 76) laboratory participants' (university student sample) self-reported emotions, and their ratings of valence and arousal of the AAA rupture simulation and other emotion-inducing picture stimuli. Experiment 2 tested two hypotheses: 1) that experiencing a patient WWD in the practice trial's experimental condition would lead physicians to choose surgery earlier, and 2) experiencing a patient PD would lead physicians to choose surgery later with the next patient. Experiment 2 presented (n = 132) physicians (surgeons and geriatricians) with the same experimental manipulation and a second simulated AAA patient. Physicians then chose to either go to surgery or continue watchful waiting. The results of Experiment 1 demonstrated that the WWD experimental condition significantly increased anxiety, and was rated similarly to other negative and arousing pictures. The results of Experiment 2 demonstrated that, after controlling for demographics, baseline anxiety, intolerance for uncertainty, risk attitudes, and the influence of simulation characteristics, the WWD experimental condition significantly expedited decisions to choose surgery for the next patient. The results support the Risk as Feelings hypothesis on physicians' treatment decisions in a realistic AAA patient computer simulation. Bad outcomes affected emotions and decisions, even with statistical AAA rupture risk guidance present. These results suggest that bad patient outcomes cause physicians to experience anxiety and regret that influences their subsequent treatment decision-making for the next patient.

Age-related trends in utilization and outcome of open and endovascular repair for abdominal aortic aneurysm in the United States, 2001-2006

OBJECTIVE

This study used a large national administrative in-hospital database to compare utilization and age-specific outcomes between open repair (OAR) and endovascular (EVAR) repair for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA).

METHODS

Discharges with the principal International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) procedure codes for EVAR and OAR and principal diagnosis code of intact AAAs were selected from the 2001 to 2006 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS). Weighted least-square regression was used to test the trend of utilization by age. Multiple linear and logistic regression analyses were used to assess the risk-adjusted outcomes.

RESULTS

Nationally, the estimated number of elective AAAs treated with EVAR increased from 11,171 in 2001 to 21,725 in 2006 (P = .003). The number of elective AAAs treated with OAR declined from 17,784 to 8451 during the same period (P < .001). By 2006, EVAR was more frequently used than OAR for patients of all ages. Compared with the younger age groups, patients aged >or=85 years had a significant increase in the total number of asymptomatic AAA repairs, driven almost entirely by an increase in the use of EVAR. Compared with open patients, EVAR patients had a significantly shorter length of hospitalization (adjusted mean, 2.99 days [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.97-3.01] vs 8.78 days [95% CI, 8.53-8.57]), less in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR], 0.23; 95% CI, 0.19-0.28), fewer in-hospital complications (OR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.25-0.28), and a higher likelihood of being discharged to home (OR, 3.95; 95% CI, 3.62-4.31). The reduction of complications from the use of EVAR versus OAR was most dramatic for the oldest patients.

CONCLUSIONS

As short-term surgical outcomes are consistently improving for patients undergoing AAA repair, elective EVAR has replaced OAR as the more common method of repair in the United States. The introduction of this technology has been rapidly adopted, particularly for the oldest-old surgical patients, aged >or=85 years, who previously may not have been offered surgical intervention for asymptomatic AAA. Further investigation is necessary to examine whether this trend improves the long-term survival and quality of life for this elderly population.