Modeling future climate suitability for the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus, in California with an emphasis on land access and ownership

History of the geographic distribution of the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus, in the United States

Ixodes pacificus (the western blacklegged tick) occurs in the far western United States (US), where it commonly bites humans. This tick was not considered a species of medical concern until it was implicated in the 1980s as a vector of Lyme disease spirochetes. Later, it was discovered to also be the primary vector to humans in the far western US of agents causing anaplasmosis and hard tick relapsing fever. The core distribution of I. pacificus in the US includes California, western Oregon, and western Washington, with outlier populations reported in Utah and Arizona. In this review, we provide a history of the documented occurrence of I. pacificus in the US from the 1890s to present, and discuss associations of its geographic range with landscape, hosts, and climate. In contrast to Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) in the eastern US, there is no evidence for a dramatic change in the geographic distribution of I. pacificus over the last half-century. Field surveys in the 1930s and 1940s documented I. pacificus along the Pacific Coast from southern California to northern Washington, in the Sierra Nevada foothills, and in western Utah. County level collection records often included both immatures and adults of I. pacificus, recovered by drag sampling or from humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. The estimated geographic distribution presented for I. pacificus in 1945 by Bishopp and Trembley is similar to that presented in 2022 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There is no clear evidence of range expansion for I. pacificus, separate from tick records in new areas that could have resulted from newly initiated or intensified surveillance efforts. Moreover, there is no evidence from long-term studies that the density of questing I. pacificus ticks has increased over time in specific areas. It therefore is not surprising that the incidence of Lyme disease has remained stable in the Pacific Coast states from the early 1990s, when it became a notifiable condition, to present. We note that deforestation and deer depredation were less severe in the far western US during the 1800s and early 1900s compared to the eastern US. This likely contributed to I. pacificus maintaining stable, widespread populations across its geographic range in the far western US in the early 1900s, while I. scapularis during the same time period appears to have been restricted to a small number of geographically isolated refugia sites within its present range in the eastern US. The impact that a warming climate may have had on the geographic distribution and local abundance of I. pacificus in recent decades remains unclear.

Assessing the Influence of Climate Change and Environmental Factors on the Top Tick-Borne Diseases in the United States: A Systematic Review

In the United States (US), tick-borne diseases (TBDs) have more than doubled in the past fifteen years and are a major contributor to the overall burden of vector-borne diseases. The most common TBDs in the US-Lyme disease, rickettsioses (including Rocky Mountain spotted fever), and anaplasmosis-have gradually shifted in recent years, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. In this systematic review, we examined climate change and other environmental factors that have influenced the epidemiology of these TBDs in the US while highlighting the opportunities for a One Health approach to mitigating their impact. We searched Medline Plus, PUBMED, and Google Scholar for studies focused on these three TBDs in the US from January 2018 to August 2023. Data selection and extraction were completed using Covidence, and the risk of bias was assessed with the ROBINS-I tool. The review included 84 papers covering multiple states across the US. We found that climate, seasonality and temporality, and land use are important environmental factors that impact the epidemiology and patterns of TBDs. The emerging trends, influenced by environmental factors, emphasize the need for region-specific research to aid in the prediction and prevention of TBDs.

Macro-parasites and micro-parasites co-exist in rodent communities but are associated with different community-level parameters

Wildlife species are often heavily parasitized by multiple infections simultaneously. Yet research on sylvatic transmission cycles, tend to focus on host interactions with a single parasite and neglects the influence of co-infections by other pathogens and parasites. Co-infections between macro-parasites and micro-parasites can alter mechanisms that regulate pathogenesis and are important for understanding disease emergence and dynamics. Wildlife rodent hosts in the Lyme disease system are infected with macro-parasites (i.e., ticks and helminths) and micro-parasites (i.e., Borrelia spp.), however, there has not been a study that investigates the interaction of all three parasites (i.e., I. pacificus, Borrelia spp., and helminths) and how these co-infections impact prevalence of micro-parasites. We live-trapped rodents in ten sites in northern California to collect feces, blood, ear tissue, and attached ticks. These samples were used to test for infection status of Borrelia species (i.e., micro-parasite), and describe the burden of ticks and helminths (i.e., macro-parasites). We found that some rodent hosts were co-infected with all three parasites, however, the burden or presence of concurrent macro-parasites were not associated with Borrelia infections. For macro-parasites, we found that tick burdens were positively associated with rodent Shannon diversity while negatively associated with predator diversity, whereas helminth burdens were not significantly associated with any host community metric. Ticks and tick-borne pathogens are associated with rodent host diversity, predator diversity, and abiotic factors. However, it is still unknown what factors helminths are associated with on the community level. Understanding the mechanisms that influence co-infections of multiple types of parasites within and across hosts is an increasingly critical component of characterizing zoonotic disease transmission and maintenance.

Infectious Disease Sensitivity to Climate and Other Driver-Pressure Changes: Research Effort and Gaps for Lyme Disease and Cryptosporidiosis

Climate sensitivity of infectious diseases is discussed in many studies. A quantitative basis for distinguishing and predicting the disease impacts of climate and other environmental and anthropogenic driver-pressure changes, however, is often lacking. To assess research effort and identify possible key gaps that can guide further research, we here apply a scoping review approach to two widespread infectious diseases: Lyme disease (LD) as a vector-borne and cryptosporidiosis as a water-borne disease. Based on the emerging publication data, we further structure and quantitatively assess the driver-pressure foci and interlinkages considered in the published research so far. This shows important research gaps for the roles of rarely investigated water-related and socioeconomic factors for LD, and land-related factors for cryptosporidiosis. For both diseases, the interactions of host and parasite communities with climate and other driver-pressure factors are understudied, as are also important world regions relative to the disease geographies; in particular, Asia and Africa emerge as main geographic gaps for LD and cryptosporidiosis research, respectively. The scoping approach developed and gaps identified in this study should be useful for further assessment and guidance of research on infectious disease sensitivity to climate and other environmental and anthropogenic changes around the world.

Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a major threat to human and animal health, with more than 80% of the global population being at risk of acquiring at least one major VBD. Being profoundly affected by the ongoing climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, modelling approaches become an essential tool to assess and compare multiple scenarios (past, present and future), and further the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is rapidly becoming the gold-standard method for this task. The purpose of this overview is to provide an insight of the use of ENM to assess the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. We have summarised some fundamental concepts and common approaches to ENM of VBDS, and then focused with a critical view on a number of crucial issues which are often disregarded when modelling the niches of VBDs. Furthermore, we have briefly presented what we consider the most relevant uses of ENM when dealing with VBDs. Niche modelling of VBDs is far from being simple, and there is still a long way to improve. Therefore, this overview is expected to be a useful benchmark for niche modelling of VBDs in future research.

Detection and Isolation of Rickettsia tillamookensis (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) From Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) From Multiple Regions of California

The western black-legged tick (Ixodes pacificus) is the most frequently identified human-biting tick species in the western United States and the principal vector of at least three recognized bacterial pathogens of humans. A potentially pathogenic Rickettsia species, first described in 1978 and recently characterized as a novel transitional group agent designated as Rickettsia tillamookensis, also exists among populations of I. pacificus, although the distribution and frequency of this agent are poorly known. We evaluated DNA extracts from 348 host-seeking I. pacificus nymphs collected from 9 locations in five California counties, and from 916 I. pacificus adults collected from 24 locations in 13 counties, by using a real-time PCR designed specifically to detect DNA of R. tillamookensis. DNA of R. tillamookensis was detected in 10 (2.9%) nymphs (95% CI: 1.6-5.2%) and 17 (1.9%) adults (95% CI: 1.2-3.0%) from 11 counties of northern California. Although site-specific infection rates varied greatly, frequencies of infection remained consistently low when aggregated by stage, sex, habitat type, or geographical region. Four novel isolates of R. tillamookensis were cultivated in Vero E6 cells from individual adult ticks collected from Alameda, Nevada, and Yolo counties. Four historical isolates, serotyped previously as 'Tillamook-like' strains over 40 yr ago, were revived from long-term storage in liquid nitrogen and confirmed subsequently by molecular methods as isolates of R. tillamookensis. The potential public health impact of R. tillamookensis requires further investigation.

Modeling Geographic Uncertainty in Current and Future Habitat for Potential Populations of Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Alaska

Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls is the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes to humans in the western United States. Although not native to Alaska, this tick species has recently been found on domestic animals in the state. Ixodes pacificus has a known native range within the western contiguous United States and southwest Canada; therefore, it is not clear if introduced individuals can successfully survive and reproduce in the high-latitude climate of Alaska. To identify areas of suitable habitat within Alaska for I. pacificus, we used model parameters from two existing sets of ensemble habitat distribution models calibrated in the contiguous United States. To match the model input covariates, we calculated climatic and land cover covariates for the present (1980-2014) and future (2070-2100) climatologies in Alaska. The present-day habitat suitability maps suggest that the climate and land cover in Southeast Alaska and portions of Southcentral Alaska could support the establishment of I. pacificus populations. Future forecasts suggest an increase in suitable habitat with considerable uncertainty for many areas of the state. Repeated introductions of this non-native tick to Alaska increase the likelihood that resident populations could become established.