The evaluation of bias in scrapie surveillance: A review

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Influenza in China, 2005-2018

Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, as well as in China. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal characteristics of influenza is important in evaluating and developing disease control programs. This study aims to describe an accurate spatiotemporal pattern of influenza at the prefecture level and explore the risk factors associated with influenza incidence risk in mainland China from 2005 to 2018. The incidence data of influenza were obtained from the Chinese Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System (CNIDRS). The Besag York Mollié (BYM) model was extended to include temporal and space-time interaction terms. The parameters for this extended Bayesian spatiotemporal model were estimated through integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) using the package R-INLA in R. A total of 702,226 influenza cases were reported in mainland China in CNIDRS from 2005–2018. The yearly reported incidence rate of influenza increased 15.6 times over the study period, from 3.51 in 2005 to 55.09 in 2008 per 100,000 populations. The temporal term in the spatiotemporal model showed that much of the increase occurred during the last 3 years of the study period. The risk factor analysis showed that the decreased number of influenza vaccines for sale, the new update of the influenza surveillance protocol, the increase in the rate of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 among all processed specimens from influenza-like illness (ILI) patients, and the increase in the latitude and longitude of geographic location were associated with an increase in the influenza incidence risk. After the adjusting for fixed covariate effects and time random effects, the map of the spatial structured term shows that high-risk areas clustered in the central part of China and the lowest-risk areas in the east and west. Large space-time variations in influenza have been found since 2009. In conclusion, an increasing trend of influenza was observed from 2005 to 2018. The insufficient flu vaccine supplements, the newly emerging influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 and expansion of influenza surveillance efforts might be the major causes of the dramatic changes in outbreak and spatio-temporal epidemic patterns. Clusters of prefectures with high relative risks of influenza were identified in the central part of China. Future research with more risk factors at both national and local levels is necessary to explain the changing spatiotemporal patterns of influenza in China.

Epidemiological investigations on the potential transmissibility of a rare disease: the case of atypical scrapie in Great Britain

Multiple cases of atypical scrapie in the same holding and co-existence with classical scrapie have been reported in Great Britain. A two-stage simulation tool was developed by combining a sampling algorithm and a hierarchical Bayesian model to simulate the number of positive cases of atypical scrapie from: (i) random sampling and (ii) using the actual sampled population in Great Britain, being the output probability of detection of flocks with one and more cases. Cluster analysis was conducted to assess the level of geographical over- and under-sampling over the years. The probability of detecting at least two cases of atypical scrapie in the same holding is much lower in simulated random data than in simulated actual data for all scenarios. Sampling bias in the selection of sheep for testing led to multiple sampling from fewer but larger holdings, Scotland, and areas of Wales were under-sampled and the South-West and East of England oversampled. The pattern of atypical scrapie cases observed is unlikely to be explained by a multi-case event epidemiologically linked. The co-existence of classical and atypical scrapie is a rare event with 19 holdings detected in GB and does not suggest an epidemiological link between the two types of disease.

Conceptual evaluation of population health surveillance programs: method and example

Veterinary and public health surveillance programs can be evaluated to assess and improve the planning, implementation and effectiveness of these programs. Guidelines, protocols and methods have been developed for such evaluation. In general, they focus on a limited set of attributes (e.g., sensitivity and simplicity), that are assessed quantitatively whenever possible, otherwise qualitatively. Despite efforts at standardization, replication by different evaluators is difficult, making evaluation outcomes open to interpretation. This ultimately limits the usefulness of surveillance evaluations. At the same time, the growing demand to prove freedom from disease or pathogen, and the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement and the International Health Regulations require stronger surveillance programs. We developed a method for evaluating veterinary and public health surveillance programs that is detailed, structured, transparent and based on surveillance concepts that are part of all types of surveillance programs. The proposed conceptual evaluation method comprises four steps: (1) text analysis, (2) extraction of the surveillance conceptual model, (3) comparison of the extracted surveillance conceptual model to a theoretical standard, and (4) validation interview with a surveillance program designer. This conceptual evaluation method was applied in 2005 to C-EnterNet, a new Canadian zoonotic disease surveillance program that encompasses laboratory based surveillance of enteric diseases in humans and active surveillance of the pathogens in food, water, and livestock. The theoretical standard used for evaluating C-EnterNet was a relevant existing structure called the "Population Health Surveillance Theory". Five out of 152 surveillance concepts were absent in the design of C-EnterNet. However, all of the surveillance concept relationships found in C-EnterNet were valid. The proposed method can be used to improve the design and documentation of surveillance programs. It complements existing surveillance evaluation methods. Conceptual evaluation is not a performance-oriented evaluation method and so it is particularly useful for surveillance programs with a valid conceptual framework but limited technical capacity and resources. Such programs would be penalized using existing performance-based evaluation methods. Applying conjointly the conceptual evaluation along with existing performance-oriented evaluation methods will better judge the worth of surveillance programs. We recommend developing a comprehensive surveillance evaluation framework for veterinary and public health surveillance programs that integrates all existing surveillance evaluation tools and provides an appropriate way to evaluate various types of surveillance programs.

A relevant long-term impact of the circulation of a potentially contaminated vaccine on the distribution of scrapie in Italy. Results from a retrospective cohort study

A sudden increase in the incidence of scrapie in Italy in 1997 was subsequently linked to the use of a potentially infected vaccine against contagious agalactia. The relative risk for the exposed farms ranged between 6 and 40. The aim of this study was to assess the long-term impact of exposure to the potentially scrapie-contaminated vaccine on the Italian classical scrapie epidemic. We carried out a retrospective cohort study, fitting mixed-effects Poisson regression models, dividing national geographic areas into exposure categories on the basis of the vaccine circulation levels. We took into account the sensitivity of the surveillance system applied in the different areas. The population attributable fraction (PAF) was used to assess the impact on the total population of farms associated with the effect of circulation of the vaccine. The provinces where the vaccine was more often sold were noted to have a higher level of disease when compared to those provinces where the vaccine was sold less often (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-6.5). The population attributable fraction was high (68.4%). Standardization techniques allowed to account for the potential of geographical variability in the sensitivity of the Italian surveillance system. Although the number of the directly exposed farms was limited, an important long-term impact of the vaccine circulation could be quantified in terms of secondary outbreaks likely due to the exchange of animals from directly exposed flocks.

Evaluation of animal and public health surveillance systems: a systematic review

Disease surveillance programmes ought to be evaluated regularly to ensure they provide valuable information in an efficient manner. Evaluation of human and animal health surveillance programmes around the world is currently not standardized and therefore inconsistent. The aim of this systematic review was to review surveillance system attributes and the methods used for their assessment, together with the strengths and weaknesses of existing frameworks for evaluating surveillance in animal health, public health and allied disciplines. Information from 99 articles describing the evaluation of 101 surveillance systems was examined. A wide range of approaches for assessing 23 different system attributes was identified although most evaluations addressed only one or two attributes and comprehensive evaluations were uncommon. Surveillance objectives were often not stated in the articles reviewed and so the reasons for choosing certain attributes for assessment were not always apparent. This has the potential to introduce misleading results in surveillance evaluation. Due to the wide range of system attributes that may be assessed, methods should be explored which collapse these down into a small number of grouped characteristics by focusing on the relationships between attributes and their links to the objectives of the surveillance system and the evaluation. A generic and comprehensive evaluation framework could then be developed consisting of a limited number of common attributes together with several sets of secondary attributes which could be selected depending on the disease or range of diseases under surveillance and the purpose of the surveillance. Economic evaluation should be an integral part of the surveillance evaluation process. This would provide a significant benefit to decision-makers who often need to make choices based on limited or diminishing resources.