A method for estimating vaccine-preventable pediatric influenza pneumonia hospitalizations in developing countries: Thailand as a case study

Risk factors for community-acquired pneumonia in children under five years of age in the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era in Brazil: a case control study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia plays an important role in children's morbidity and mortality. In Brazil, epidemiological and social changes occurred concomitantly with the universal introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. This study identified risk factors for pneumonia following the implementation of a pneumococcal vaccination program.

METHODS

A hospital-based, case-control study involving incident cases of pneumonia in children aged 1-59 months was conducted between October 2010 and September 2013 at a tertiary hospital in northeastern Brazil. The diagnosis of pneumonia was based on the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. The control group consisted of children admitted to the day-hospital ward for elective surgery. Children with comorbidities were excluded. The risk factors for pneumonia that were investigated were among those classified by the WHO as definite, likely and possible. A multivariate analysis was performed including variables that were significant at p ≤ 0.25 in the bivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The study evaluated 407 children in the case group and 407 children in the control group. Household crowding (OR = 2.15; 95 % CI, 1,46-3,18) and not having been vaccinated against the influenza virus (OR = 3.59; 95 % CI, 2,62-4.91) were the only factors found to increase the likelihood of pneumonia. Male gender constituted a protective factor (OR = 0.53; 95 % CI, 0,39-0,72).

CONCLUSION

Changes on risk factors for pneumonia were most likely associated with the expansion of the vaccination program and social improvements; however, these improvements were insufficient to overcome inequalities, given that household crowding remained a significant risk factor. The protection provided by the influenza vaccine must be evaluated new etiological studies. Furthermore, additional risk factors should be investigated.

Estimation of the national disease burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness in Kenya and Guatemala: a novel methodology

Background

Knowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden.

Methods and Findings

This method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases.

Conclusions

Influenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries.

Epidemiological and virological characteristics of seasonal and pandemic influenza in Lao PDR, 2008-2010

Background  Information on influenza virology and epidemiology from Lao PDR is limited and the seasonal patterns of influenza have not been previously described.

Objectives  To describe epidemiological and virologic characteristics of influenza in Lao PDR to recommend public health interventions, including improvements in surveillance and response.

Patients/Methods  We performed a descriptive analysis of samples taken from patients with influenza‐like‐illness (ILI) (fever >38°C with cough and/or sore throat) presenting at seven sentinel hospitals in three regions of Lao PDR, January 2008–December 2010. A nasopharyngeal (NP) swab or combined nasal with oropharyngeal swab was collected from patients with ILI. Samples were tested for influenza by either Luminex RVP, conventional reverse transcriptase PCR (RT‐PCR) (January 2008–2009), or by real‐time PCR (rRT‐PCR) using US CDC reagents (February 2009 onward).

Results  Of 2346 samples tested from patients with ILI, 523 (22%) were positive for influenza. The median age of those positive was 12 years (range, <1–60 year). The percentage of samples that were influenza positive was similar over the 3 years (20–23%). Each year 3–4 types/subtypes cocirculated with differing predominant type/subtype. Influenza was detected year‐round with the highest proportion of positive specimens in the 3rd and 4th quarter.

Conclusions  Similar to other countries in the region, we found that influenza is present year‐round and has a peak activity from July to December. Dominant types or subtypes vary by year. A large proportion of patients with ILI are not influenza positive. ILI surveillance is critical for weighing disease burden, both morbidity and mortality, against the costs of advancing influenza vaccine delivery strategy.