The estimated impact of natural immunity on the effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination

Comparison of HPV neutralizing and IgG antibodies in unvaccinated female adolescents

Aims: To analyze the consistency between HPV neutralizing antibodies and specific total IgG antibodies in unvaccinated females. Materials & methods: Serum samples from 978 unvaccinated Chinese females aged 9-26 years were measured for antibodies against HPV-16 and HPV-18 using simultaneous pseudovirus-based neutralization assay and ELISA. Results: There was a moderate level of consistency between HPV neutralizing antibodies and specific IgG in females aged 18-26 years (Cohen's κ coefficient for HPV-16 and HPV-18: 0.52 and 0.38) and poor consistency in those aged 9-17 years (Cohen's κ coefficient <0.05). However, Cohen's κ coefficient remained almost unchanged in sensitivity analysis when the IgG antibody cut-off value was raised. Conclusion: HPV neutralizing antibodies are a more specific indicator for the evaluation of HPV natural humoral immunity.

Naturally acquired HPV antibodies against subsequent homotypic infection: A large-scale prospective cohort study

Background

Although recent studies have suggested that naturally acquired Human papillomavirus (HPV) antibodies are partly protective against subsequent homotypic infection, the extent of protection remains indecisive. Here, we evaluate the protective effect of neutralizing and IgG antibodies simultaneously.

Methods

In a cohort of 3634 women aged 18-45 years from the control arm of a phase III trial of the HPV-16/18 bivalent vaccine, participants were tested for neutralizing antibodies by pseudovirion-based neutralization assay (PBNA) and IgG antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) at baseline. HPV-16/18 incident and persistent infections were identified using cervical specimens periodically collected during the 5·5 years of follow-up. The protective effects of HPV-16/18 neutralizing and IgG antibodies against homotypic infection were assessed using a Cox proportional hazard model.

Findings

For the persistent infection (PI) endpoints of HPV-16/18 lasting for over 6/12 months, a prevalence of type-specific neutralizing antibodies was highly protective (6-month PI: hazard ratio (HR) = 0·16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0·04, 0·65; 12-month PI: HR = 0·23, 95% CI: 0·06, 0·94), whereas a prevalence of IgG antibodies was associated with minor and non-significant protection (6-month PI: HR = 0·66, 95% CI: 0·40, 1·09; 12-month PI: HR = 0·66, 95% CI: 0·36, 1·20). After increasing the cut-off value to the median IgG level, the risk of 6-month PI was significantly lower in seropositive vs seronegative women (HR = 0·38, 95% CI: 0·18, 0·83).

Interpretation

Naturally acquired antibodies are associated with a substantially reduced risk of subsequent homotypic infection.

Funding

NSFC; The Fujian Province Health Education Joint Research Project; Xiamen Science and Technology Major Project; CIFMS; and Xiamen Innovax.

The Differential Risk of Cervical Cancer in HPV-Vaccinated and -Unvaccinated Women: A Mathematical Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

With increased uptake of vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), protection against cervical cancer will also increase for unvaccinated women, due to herd immunity. Still, the differential risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated women might warrant a vaccination-status-screening approach. To understand the potential value of stratified screening protocols, we estimated the risk differentials in HPV and cervical cancer between vaccinated and unvaccinated women.

METHODS

We used STDSIM, an individual-based model of HPV transmission and control, to estimate the HPV prevalence reduction over time, after introduction of HPV vaccination. We simulated scenarios of bivalent or nonavalent vaccination in females-only or females and males, at 20% coverage increments. We estimated relative HPV-type-specific prevalence reduction compared with a no-vaccination counterfactual and then estimated the age-specific cervical cancer risk by vaccination status.

RESULTS

The relative cervical cancer risk for unvaccinated compared with vaccinated women ranged from 1.7 (bivalent vaccine for females and males; 80% coverage) to 10.8 (nonavalent vaccine for females-only; 20% coverage). Under 60% vaccination coverage, which is a representative coverage for several western countries, including the United States, the relative risk (RR) varies between 2.2 (bivalent vaccine for females and males) and 9.2 (nonavalent vaccine for females).

CONCLUSIONS

We found large cervical cancer risk differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated women. In general, our model shows that the RR is higher in lower vaccine coverages, using the nonavalent vaccine, and when vaccinating females only.

IMPACT

To avoid a disbalance in harms and benefits between vaccinated and unvaccinated women, vaccination-based screening needs serious consideration.

Ten years of HPV vaccination in the Netherlands: current evidence and future challenges in HPV-related disease prevention

INTRODUCTION

Girls-only vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 and 18 was implemented in the Netherlands in 2009. Despite the evidence of the efficacy against precancerous lesions, cross-protection induced by the vaccine and a greater potential for cancer prevention than cervical cancer only, vaccine coverage in the girls-only program has remained below target levels.

AREAS COVERED

In this paper, we review the literature from the Netherlands on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination since vaccine introduction, give an account of the coverage, safety and effectiveness of HPV vaccination as has been reported in the Dutch surveillance program and discuss challenges of the current HPV vaccination program.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Girls-only HPV vaccination may confer a substantial health gain in HPV-related disease prevention. However, vaccine coverage declined remarkably recently possibly related to safety concerns, limiting the benefits from girls' vaccination and increasing the potential additional benefit of sex-neutral HPV vaccination. Considering the emergence of novel vaccination and screening options and the change from cytology- to HPV-based screening in 2017, further research is required to inform decisions on the optimization of an integrated vaccination and screening program.

The health impact of human papillomavirus vaccination in the situation of primary human papillomavirus screening: A mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and the implementation of primary HPV screening in the Netherlands will lead to a lower cervical disease burden. For evaluation and further improvement of prevention, it is important to estimate the magnitude and timing of health benefits of current and alternative vaccination strategies such as vaccination of boys or adults.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We evaluated the impact of the current girls-only vaccination program and alternative strategies on cervical disease burden among the first four vaccinated five-year birth cohorts, given the context of primary HPV screening. We integrated the existing microsimulation models STDSIM (HPV transmission model) and MISCAN-Cervix (cervical cancer screening model). Alternative vaccination strategies include: improved vaccination uptake, including routine boys vaccination, and offering adult vaccination at sexual health clinics. Our models show that the current vaccination program is estimated to reduce cervical cancers and cancer deaths by about 35% compared to primary HPV screening in the absence of vaccination. The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to gain 1 life year is 45. The most efficient alternative vaccination strategies are: 1) improving coverage of girls to 80% (NNV = 42); and 2) routine vaccination for girls and boys at 80% coverage (incremental NNV = 155), with cervical cancer mortality reductions estimated at 50% and 60% respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While the current program already substantially reduces cervical cancer incidence and mortality, prevention can be further improved by increasing vaccination uptake and extending vaccination to boys. As not all cervical cancer deaths will be prevented, screening participation should still be encouraged.

Public Health Benefits of Routine Human Papillomavirus Vaccination for Adults in the Netherlands: A Mathematical Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

Expanding routine human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to adults could be an effective strategy to improve prevention of HPV infection and cervical cancer.

METHODS

We evaluated the following adult vaccination strategies for women only and for both women and men in addition to the current girls-only vaccination program in the Netherlands, using the established STDSIM microsimulation model: one-time mass campaign, vaccination at the first cervical cancer screening visit, vaccination at sexual health clinics, and combinations of these strategies.

RESULTS

The estimated impact of expanding routine vaccination to adult women is modest, with the largest incremental reductions in the incidence of HPV infection occurring when offering vaccination both at the cervical cancer screening visit and during sexually transmitted infection (STI) consultations (about 20% lower after 50 years for both HPV-16 and HPV-18). Adding male vaccination during STI consultations leads to more-substantial incidence reductions: 63% for HPV-16 and 84% for HPV-18. The incremental number needed to vaccinate among women is 5.48, compared with 0.90 for the current vaccination program.

CONCLUSIONS

Offering vaccination to adults, especially at cervical cancer screening visits (for women) and during STI consultations (for both sexes), would substantially reduce HPV incidence and would be an efficient policy option to improve HPV prevention and subsequently avert cervical and possibly male HPV-related cancers.