Defining long-term drivers of pertussis resurgence, and optimal vaccine control strategies

The seroepidemiology of immunoglobulin G antibodies against pertussis toxin and filamentous hemagglutinin in the east of China during the COVID-19 pandemic

This study employed sero-epidemiological methods to estimate the incidence of pertussis within a healthy population located in eastern China. The aim was to gain deeper insights into the epidemiological characteristics and burden of pertussis within the country. Blood samples were collected from healthy individuals in Jiangsu Province between June 2019 and December 2022. The levels of IgG antibodies against pertussis toxin (anti-PT) and filamentous hemagglutinin (anti-FHA) in the serum were quantitatively measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Additionally, pertussis case data reported in Jiangsu Province were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and compared with the results of this study. In 2022, the reported incidence of pertussis stood at 1.0 per 100,000 individuals, marking the highest rate observed in the past two decades. Among 1,909 patients examined, the geometric mean concentration (GMC) of anti-PT IgG antibody was 20.2 (18.5-21.9) IU/ml, while that of anti-FHA IgG antibody was 27.0 (25.4-28.7) IU/ml. The IgG-PT and IgG-FHA seropositivity rate (>20.0 IU/ml) was highest in the 1 ~ 2 y old group and decreased rapidly to the lowest in the 3 ~ 4 y old group and then increased gradually with age. The estimated rate of pertussis infection based on seroprevalence was approximately 25,625-fold higher than the reported notification rate in the ≥15 year age group. Our findings highlight decreased immunity post-vaccination, stressing the importance of additional booster shots for adolescents and adults to maintain immunity and reduce severe illness. Additionally, they offer vital guidance for policymakers to enhance immunization strategies.

Pertussis vaccines, epidemiology and evolution

Pertussis, which is caused by Bordetella pertussis, has plagued humans for at least 800 years, is highly infectious and can be fatal in the unvaccinated, especially very young infants. Although the rollout of whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccines in the 1940s and 1950s was associated with a drastic drop in incidence, concerns regarding the reactogenicity of wP vaccines led to the development of a new generation of safer, acellular (aP) vaccines that have been adopted mainly in high-income countries. Over the past 20 years, some countries that boast high aP coverage have experienced a resurgence in pertussis, which has led to substantial debate over the basic immunology, epidemiology and evolutionary biology of the bacterium. Controversy surrounds the duration of natural immunity and vaccine-derived immunity, the ability of vaccines to prevent transmission and severe disease, and the impact of evolution on evading vaccine immunity. Resolving these issues is made challenging by incomplete detection of pertussis cases, the absence of a serological marker of immunity, modest sequencing of the bacterial genome and heterogeneity in diagnostic methods of surveillance. In this Review, we lay out the complexities of contemporary pertussis and, where possible, propose a parsimonious explanation for apparently incongruous observations.

Pertussis immunisation strategies to optimise infant pertussis control: A narrative systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Countries routinely offering acellular pertussis vaccine, where long-term protection is not sustained, have the challenge of selecting an optimal schedule to minimise disease among young infants. We conducted a narrative systematic review and synthesis of information to evaluate different pertussis immunisation strategies at controlling pertussis disease, hospitalisation, deaths, and vaccine effectiveness among young infants.

METHODS

We conducted a review of the literature on studies about the primary, booster, and/or maternal vaccination series and synthesised findings narratively. Countries offering the first three doses of vaccine within six-months of life and a booster on or before the second year or life were defined as accelerated primary and booster schedules, respectively. Countries offering primary and booster doses later were defined as extended primary and booster schedules. All search results were screened, and articles reviewed and reconciled, by two authors. The Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Intervention tool was used to evaluate the risk of bias.

FINDINGS

A total of 98 studies were included in the analyses and the following recurring themes were described: timing of vaccination, vaccine coverage, waning immunity/vaccine effectiveness, direct and indirect effectiveness, switching from an accelerated to extended schedule, impact of changes in testing. The risk of bias was generally low to moderate for most studies.

CONCLUSION

Comparing schedules is challenging and there was insufficient evidence to that one schedule was superior to another. Countries must select a schedule that maintains high vaccine coverage and reduced the risk of delaying the delivery vaccines to protect infants.

Integrating proteomic data with metabolic modeling provides insight into key pathways of Bordetella pertussis biofilms

Pertussis, commonly known as whooping cough is a severe respiratory disease caused by the bacterium, Bordetella pertussis. Despite widespread vaccination, pertussis resurgence has been observed globally. The development of the current acellular vaccine (ACV) has been based on planktonic studies. However, recent studies have shown that B. pertussis readily forms biofilms. A better understanding of B. pertussis biofilms is important for developing novel vaccines that can target all aspects of B. pertussis infection. This study compared the proteomic expression of biofilm and planktonic B. pertussis cells to identify key changes between the conditions. Major differences were identified in virulence factors including an upregulation of toxins (adenylate cyclase toxin and dermonecrotic toxin) and downregulation of pertactin and type III secretion system proteins in biofilm cells. To further dissect metabolic pathways that are altered during the biofilm lifestyle, the proteomic data was then incorporated into a genome scale metabolic model using the Integrative Metabolic Analysis Tool (iMAT). The generated models predicted that planktonic cells utilised the glyoxylate shunt while biofilm cells completed the full tricarboxylic acid cycle. Differences in processing aspartate, arginine and alanine were identified as well as unique export of valine out of biofilm cells which may have a role in inter-bacterial communication and regulation. Finally, increased polyhydroxybutyrate accumulation and superoxide dismutase activity in biofilm cells may contribute to increased persistence during infection. Taken together, this study modeled major proteomic and metabolic changes that occur in biofilm cells which helps lay the groundwork for further understanding B. pertussis pathogenesis.

Dissecting recurrent waves of pertussis across the boroughs of London

Pertussis has resurfaced in the UK, with incidence levels not seen since the 1980s. While the fundamental causes of this resurgence remain the subject of much conjecture, the study of historical patterns of pathogen diffusion can be illuminating. Here, we examined time series of pertussis incidence in the boroughs of Greater London from 1982 to 2013 to document the spatial epidemiology of this bacterial infection and to identify the potential drivers of its percolation. The incidence of pertussis over this period is characterized by 3 distinct stages: a period exhibiting declining trends with 4-year inter-epidemic cycles from 1982 to 1994, followed by a deep trough until 2006 and the subsequent resurgence. We observed systematic temporal trends in the age distribution of cases and the fade-out profile of pertussis coincident with increasing national vaccine coverage from 1982 to 1990. To quantify the hierarchy of epidemic phases across the boroughs of London, we used the Hilbert transform. We report a consistent pattern of spatial organization from 1982 to the early 1990s, with some boroughs consistently leading epidemic waves and others routinely lagging. To determine the potential drivers of these geographic patterns, a comprehensive parallel database of borough-specific features was compiled, comprising of demographic, movement and socio-economic factors that were used in statistical analyses to predict epidemic phase relationships among boroughs. Specifically, we used a combination of a feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to quantify the contribution of each covariate to model predictions. Our analyses identified a number of predictors of a borough's historical epidemic phase, specifically the age composition of households, the number of agricultural and skilled manual workers, latitude, the population of public transport commuters and high-occupancy households. Univariate regression analysis of the 2012 epidemic identified the ratio of cumulative unvaccinated children to the total population and population of Pakistan-born population to have moderate positive and negative association, respectively, with the timing of epidemic. In addition to providing a comprehensive overview of contemporary pertussis transmission in a large metropolitan population, this study has identified the characteristics that determine the spatial spread of this bacterium across the boroughs of London.

Effect of change in vaccine schedule on pertussis epidemiology in France: a modelling and serological study

BACKGROUND

In April-May, 2013, France modified its pertussis vaccination schedule, which uses the acellular pertussis vaccine, from three primary doses at 2, 3, and 4 months of age and a first booster at 16-18 months of age (former schedule) to two primary doses at 2 and 4 months of age and a first booster at 11 months of age (new schedule). We aimed to assess the subsequent effect of the vaccine schedule change on pertussis epidemiology in France.

METHODS

In this modelling study, using data collected between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2019, from French national surveillance sources, we analysed the PCR test results of nasopharyngeal swabs collected from symptomatic outpatients aged 2-20 years with suspected pertussis. We developed a negative binomial regression model for the number of confirmed pertussis cases by year and age to assess the relative risks of pertussis depending on vaccine schedule. The linear predictor included the year, the age group, the population size, and a proxy of waning immunity. We tested different models in which waning immunity could vary with vaccine schedule and type of primary vaccine. The models were fitted to the 2012-18 data via Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, and the 2019 data were left out for external model validation. We also compared the anti-pertussis toxin (PT) antibody concentrations in leftover sera from children not tested for pertussis or recent respiratory tract infection aged 2-5 years born before and after the vaccine schedule change.

FINDINGS

We collected data on 7493 confirmed cases of pertussis. The model that best fitted the 2012-18 epidemiological data supported a faster waning of immunity following vaccination with the new vaccine schedule. 3 years after vaccination, the risk of developing pertussis was 1·7 (95% CI 1·4-2·0) times higher for children vaccinated according to the new schedule than those vaccinated according to the former schedule. The model correctly predicted the age distribution of cases in 2019. Geometric mean concentrations (GMC) of anti-PT IgG were 50% lower in children aged 2 years vaccinated with the new schedule (GMC=5·85 IU/mL [95% CI 4·08-8·39]) than in children of the same age vaccinated with the former schedule (GMC=11·62 IU/mL [95% CI 9·05-14·92]; p=0·0016), and 43% lower in children aged 3 years vaccinated with the new schedule (GMC=3·88 IU/mL [95% CI 2·82-5·34]) than those with the former schedule (GMC=6·80 IU/mL [95% CI 4·77-9·70]; p=0·026).

INTERPRETATION

A shorter-lived protection induced by the new vaccine schedule recommended in France since 2013 is associated with an increase of pertussis cases in children aged 2-5 years. If similar findings are observed in other countries and clinical trials, these findings should be considered in future pertussis vaccination policies.

FUNDING

INCEPTION, Labex-IBEID, Institut Pasteur, and Santé Publique France.

Modeling the waning and boosting of immunity from infection or vaccination

Immunity following natural infection or immunization may wane, increasing susceptibility to infection with time since infection or vaccination. Symptoms, and concomitantly infectiousness, depend on residual immunity. We quantify these phenomena in a model population composed of individuals whose susceptibility, infectiousness, and symptoms all vary with immune status. We also model age, which affects contact, vaccination and possibly waning rates. The resurgences of pertussis that have been observed wherever effective vaccination programs have reduced typical disease among young children follow from these processes. As one example, we compare simulations with the experience of Sweden following resumption of pertussis vaccination after the hiatus from 1979 to 1996, reproducing the observations leading health authorities to introduce booster doses among school-aged children and adolescents in 2007 and 2014, respectively. Because pertussis comprises a spectrum of symptoms, only the most severe of which are medically attended, accurate models are needed to design optimal vaccination programs where surveillance is less effective.

Estimating seasonal variation in Australian pertussis notifications from 1991 to 2016: evidence of spring to summer peaks

Unlike for many other respiratory infections, the seasonality of pertussis is not well understood. While evidence of seasonal fluctuations in pertussis incidence has been noted in some countries, there have been conflicting findings including in the context of Australia. We investigated this issue by analysing the seasonality of pertussis notifications in Australia using monthly data from January 1991 to December 2016. Data were made available for all states and territories in Australia except for the Australian Capital Territory and were stratified into age groups. Using a time-series decomposition approach, we formulated a generalised additive model where seasonality is expressed using cosinor terms to estimate the amplitude and peak timing of pertussis notifications in Australia. We also compared these characteristics across different jurisdictions and age groups. We found evidence that pertussis notifications exhibit seasonality, with peaks observed during the spring and summer months (November–January) in Australia and across different states and territories. During peak months, notifications are expected to increase by about 15% compared with the yearly average. Peak notifications for children <5 years occurred 1–2 months later than the general population, which provides support to the theory that older household members remain an important source of pertussis infection for younger children. In addition, our results provide a more comprehensive spatial picture of seasonality in Australia, a feature lacking in previous studies. Finally, our findings suggest that seasonal forcing may be useful to consider in future population transmission models of pertussis.

Age-related differences in antibody avidities to pertussis toxin and filamentous hemagglutinin in a healthy Japanese population

To gain insights into the current Japanese pertussis immunization schedule, we examined the distributions of antibody titers and avidities to pertussis toxin (PT) and filamentous hemagglutinin (FHA) in 460 Japanese healthy subjects (aged 1-60 years) based on age category. Our avidity enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays revealed that young children aged 1-2 years, which corresponded to ages after receiving primary and/or booster pertussis vaccinations, had relatively high-avidity anti-PT IgG (mean avidity index [AI], 40.5%) compared with other age groups (AI, 26.5-31.9%); however, they had relatively low-avidity anti-FHA IgG (AI, 41.8%). In contrast, children aged 3-6 years had both low-avidity anti-PT IgG (AI, 26.5%) and low-avidity anti-FHA IgG (AI, 40.4%). A significant age-related difference in anti-PT IgG avidity was observed between children aged 1-2 years and 3-6 years (P < 0.05); however, the difference in anti-FHA IgG avidity was not significant. The anti-PT IgG avidity was positively correlated with the antibody titer, especially among children aged 1-15 years (r_s = 0.508-0.685; P < 0.01), indicating that the avidity of vaccine-induced anti-PT IgG decreases with decreasing IgG antibody titer to PT. Our findings strongly suggest that vaccine-induced anti-PT IgG avidity rapidly wanes after vaccination, but this is not observed for anti-FHA IgG avidity. Because children aged 3-6 years have both low-quantity and low-quality antibodies against PT, an additional booster vaccination with acellular pertussis vaccines is required for such children in Japan.

Commentary: resolving pertussis resurgence and vaccine immunity using mathematical transmission models

The epidemiology of pertussis-a vaccine-preventable respiratory infection typically caused by the bacterium Bordetella pertussis-remains puzzling. Indeed, the disease seems nowhere close to eradication and has even re-emerged in certain countries-such as the US-that have maintained high vaccination coverage. Because the dynamics of pertussis are shaped by past vaccination and natural infection rates, with the relevant timescale spanning decades, the interpretation of such unexpected trends is not straightforward. In this commentary, we propose that mathematical transmission models play an essential role in helping to interpret the data and in closing knowledge gaps in pertussis epidemiology. We submit that recent advances in statistical inference methods now allow us to estimate key parameters, such as the nature and duration of vaccinal immunity, which have to date been difficult to quantify. We illustrate these points with the results of a recent study based on data from Massachusetts (Domenech de Cellès, Magpantay, King, and Rohani, Sci. Transl. Med. 2018;10: eaaj1748. doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.aaj1748), in which we used such methods to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the ongoing resurgence of pertussis. In addition, we list a number of safety checks that can be used to critically assess mathematical models. Finally, we discuss the remaining uncertainties surrounding pertussis vaccines, in particular the acellular vaccines used for teenage booster immunizations.

Prevention of pertussis: An unresolved problem

Pertussis is a highly contagious respiratory disease caused by Bordetella pertussis. However, after the introduction of the whole-cell pertussis vaccine (wP), the annual incidence rates of the disease progressively declined. Despite this result, the inclusion of wP in the national immunization schedule of infants and young children was debated regarding its safety. Several efforts to produce vaccines based on B. pertussis components capable of evoking protective immunity with no or limited adverse events were made. Of these others, five pertussis antigens were considered possible components of acellular vaccines (aPs): pertussis toxin (PT), filamentous haemagglutinin (FHA), pertactin (PRN) and fimbria proteins 2 and 3. However, the introduction of aPs was followed by a slight but progressive increase in the incidence of pertussis. This paper discusses the potential reasons for reduced aPs efficacy. Moreover, it attempts to evaluate the real effectiveness of aPs and the potential differences between available preparations. Data analysis showed that several boosters are needed to maintain protection against pertussis and additional studies are needed to confirm the antigens that should be included in aPs to improve the prevention of pertussis.

Core pertussis transmission groups in England and Wales: A tale of two eras

The recent resurgence of pertussis in England and Wales has been marked by infant deaths and rising cases in teens and adults. To understand which age cohorts are most responsible for these trends, we employed three separate statistical methods to analyze high-resolution pertussis reports from 1982 to 2012. The fine-grained nature of the time-series allowed us to describe the changes in age-specific incidence and contrast the transmission dynamics in the 1980s and during the resurgence era. Our results identified infants and school children younger than 10 years of age as a core group, prior to 2002: pertussis incidence in these populations was predictive of incidence in other age groups. After 2002, no core groups were identifiable. This conclusion is independent of methodology used. Because it is unlikely that the underlying contact patterns substantially changed over the study period, changes in predictability likely result from the introduction of more stringent diagnostics tests that may have inadvertently played a role in masking the relative contributions of core transmission groups.

Influence of Population Demography and Immunization History on the Impact of an Antenatal Pertussis Program

Background. Antenatal pertussis vaccination is being considered as a means to reduce the burden of infant pertussis in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but its likely impact in such settings is yet to be quantified.

Methods. An individual-based model was used to simulate the demographic structure and dynamics of a population with characteristics similar to those of LMICs. Transmission of pertussis within this population was simulated to capture the incidence of infection in (1) the absence of vaccination; (2) with a primary course only (three doses of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccines [DTP3] commencing in 1985, 1995, or 2005 at 20%, 50%, or 80% coverage); and (3) with the addition of an antenatal pertussis program.

Results. Modeled annual incidence averaged over the period 2015–2024 reduced with increasing DTP3 coverage, regardless of the year childhood vaccination commenced. Over the same period, the proportion of infants born with passive protection did not change substantially compared with the prevaccination situation, regardless of DTP3 coverage and start year. We found minimal impact of antenatal vaccination on infection in all infants when mothers were eligible for a single antenatal dose. When mothers were eligible for multiple antenatal doses, incidence in infants aged 0–2 months was reduced by around 30%. This result did not hold for the full 0- to 1-year age group, for whom antenatal vaccination did not reduce infection levels.

Conclusions. While antenatal vaccination could potentially reduce infant mortality in LMICs, broader gains at the population level are likely to be achieved by focusing efforts on increasing DTP3 coverage.

Determining the Best Strategies for Maternally Targeted Pertussis Vaccination Using an Individual-Based Model

Rising pertussis incidence has prompted a number of countries to implement maternally targeted vaccination strategies to protect vulnerable infants, but questions remain about the optimal design of such strategies. We simulated pertussis transmission within an individual-based model parameterized to match Australian conditions, explicitly linking infants and their mothers to estimate the effectiveness of alternative maternally targeted vaccination strategies (antenatal delivery vs. postnatal delivery) and the benefit of revaccination over the course of multiple pregnancies. For firstborn infants aged less than 2 months, antenatal immunization reduced annual pertussis incidence by 60%, from 780 per 100,000 firstborn children under age 2 months (interquartile range (IQR), 682-862) to 315 per 100,000 (IQR, 260-370), while postnatal vaccination produced a minimal reduction, with an incidence of 728 per 100,000 (IQR, 628-789). Subsequent infants obtained limited protection from a single antenatal dose, but revaccinating mothers during every pregnancy decreased incidence for these infants by 58%, from 1,878 per 100,000 subsequent children under age 2 months (IQR, 1,712-2,076) to 791 per 100,000 (IQR, 683-915). Subsequent infants also benefited from household-level herd immunity when antenatal vaccination for every pregnancy was combined with a toddler booster dose at age 18 months; incidence was reduced to 626 per 100,000 (IQR, 548-691). Our approach provides useful information to aid consideration of alternative maternally targeted vaccination strategies and can inform development of outcome measures for program evaluation.

The Pertussis resurgence: putting together the pieces of the puzzle

Pertussis incidence is rising in almost every country where acellular pertussis (aP) vaccines have been introduced, and is occurring across all age groups from infancy to adulthood. The key question is why? While several known factors such as waning of immunity, detection bias due to more sensitive tests and higher awareness of the disease among practitioners, and evolutionary shifts among B. pertussis all likely contribute, collectively, these do not adequately explain the existing epidemiologic data, suggesting that additional factors also contribute. Key amongst these is recent data indicating that the immune responses induced by aP vaccines differ fundamentally from those induced by the whole cell pertussis (wP) vaccines, and do not lead to mucosal immunity. If so, it appears likely that differences in how the two categories of vaccines work, may be pivotal to our overall understanding of the pertussis resurgence.

Forecasting Epidemiological Consequences of Maternal Immunization

BACKGROUND

 The increase in the incidence of whooping cough (pertussis) in many countries with high vaccination coverage is alarming. Maternal pertussis immunization has been proposed as an effective means of protecting newborns during the interval between birth and the first routine dose. However, there are concerns regarding potential interference between maternal antibodies and the immune response elicited by the routine schedule, with possible long-term population-level effects.

METHODS

 We formulated a transmission model comprising both primary routine and maternal immunization. This model was examined to evaluate the long-term epidemiological effects of routine and maternal immunization, together with consequences of potential immune interference scenarios.

RESULTS

 Overall, our model demonstrates that maternal immunization is an effective strategy in reducing the incidence of pertussis in neonates prior to the onset of the primary schedule. However, if maternal antibodies lead to blunting, incidence increases among older age groups. For instance, our model predicts that with 60% routine and maternal immunization coverage and 30% blunting, the incidence among neonates (0-2 months) is reduced by 43%. Under the same scenario, we observe a 20% increase in incidence among children aged 5-10 years. However, the downstream increase in the older age groups occurs with a delay of approximately a decade or more.

CONCLUSIONS

 Maternal immunization has clear positive effects on infant burden of disease, lowering mean infant incidence. However, if maternally derived antibodies adversely affect the immunogenicity of the routine schedule, we predict eventual population-level repercussions that may lead to an overall increase in incidence in older age groups.

Immunological Signatures after Bordetella pertussis Infection Demonstrate Importance of Pulmonary Innate Immune Cells

Effective immunity against Bordetella pertussis is currently under discussion following the stacking evidence of pertussis resurgence in the vaccinated population. Natural immunity is more effective than vaccine-induced immunity indicating that knowledge on infection-induced responses may contribute to improve vaccination strategies. We applied a systems biology approach comprising microarray, flow cytometry and multiplex immunoassays to unravel the molecular and cellular signatures in unprotected mice and protected mice with infection-induced immunity, around a B. pertussis challenge. Pre-existing systemic memory Th1/Th17 cells, memory B-cells, and mucosal IgA specific for Ptx, Vag8, Fim2/3 were detected in the protected mice 56 days after an experimental infection. In addition, pre-existing high activity and reactivation of pulmonary innate cells such as alveolar macrophages, M-cells and goblet cells was detected. The pro-inflammatory responses in the lungs and serum, and neutrophil recruitment in the spleen upon an infectious challenge of unprotected mice were absent in protected mice. Instead, fast pulmonary immune responses in protected mice led to efficient bacterial clearance and harbored potential new gene markers that contribute to immunity against B. pertussis. These responses comprised of innate makers, such as Clca3, Retlna, Glycam1, Gp2, and Umod, next to adaptive markers, such as CCR6+ B-cells, CCR6+ Th17 cells and CXCR6+ T-cells as demonstrated by transcriptome analysis. In conclusion, besides effective Th1/Th17 and mucosal IgA responses, the primary infection-induced immunity benefits from activation of pulmonary resident innate immune cells, achieved by local pathogen-recognition. These molecular signatures of primary infection-induced immunity provided potential markers to improve vaccine-induced immunity against B. pertussis.

Investigating the pertussis resurgence in England and Wales, and options for future control

BACKGROUND

In 2012 England and Wales experienced a resurgence of pertussis and an increase in infant deaths. This occurred 8 years after acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine replaced whole cell (wP) primary vaccine despite continued high coverage for the primary series and pre-school aP booster. We developed a mathematical model to describe pertussis transmission dynamics in England and Wales since the 1950s and used it to investigate the cause of the resurgence and the potential impact of additional vaccination strategies.

METHODS

An age-structured, compartmental, deterministic model of the pertussis transmission dynamics was fitted to 60 continuous years of age-stratified pertussis notification data in England and Wales. The model incorporated vaccine-induced and natural immunity and differentiated between vaccine-induced protection against clinical disease and infection.

RESULTS

The degree of protection of wP vaccine against infection was estimated to be higher than that of aP vaccine. Furthermore, the duration of protection for natural and wP-induced immunity was likely to be at least 15 years, but for aP vaccine it could be as low as 5 years. Model results indicated that the likely cause of the resurgence was the replacement of wP by less efficacious aP vaccine and that an elevated level of pertussis would continue. The collapse in wP vaccine coverage in the 1970s and resultant outbreaks in the late 1970s and early 1980s could not explain the resurgence. Addition of an adolescent or toddler booster was predicted to have little impact on the disease in infants.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the recent recommendation by the World Health Organisation that countries currently using wP vaccine for primary immunisation should not change to aP vaccine unless additional strategies to control infant disease such as maternal immunisation can be assured. Improved pertussis vaccines that provide better protection against infection are needed.

Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity

Incidence of whooping cough, an infection caused by Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis, has been on the rise since the 1980s in many countries. Immunological interactions, such as immune boosting and cross-immunity between pathogens, have been hypothesised to be important drivers of epidemiological dynamics. We present a two-pathogen model of transmission which examines how immune boosting and cross-immunity can influence the timing and severity of epidemics. We use a combination of numerical simulations and bifurcation techniques to study the dynamical properties of the system, particularly the conditions under which stable periodic solutions are present. We derive analytic expressions for the steady state of the single-pathogen model, and give a condition for the presence of periodic solutions. A key result from our two-pathogen model is that, while studies have shown that immune boosting at relatively strong levels can independently generate periodic solutions, cross-immunity allows for the presence of periodic solutions even when the level of immune boosting is weak. Asymmetric cross-immunity can produce striking increases in the incidence and period. Our study underscores the importance of developing a better understanding of the immunological interactions between pathogens in order to improve model-based interpretations of epidemiological data.

Manufacturing DTaP-based combination vaccines: industrial challenges around essential public health tools

INTRODUCTION

The manufacture of DTP-backboned combination vaccines is complex, and vaccine quality is evaluated by both batch composition and conformance of manufacturing history. Since their first availability, both the manufacturing regulations for DTP combination vaccines and their demand have evolved significantly. This has resulted in a constant need to modify manufacturing and quality control processes. Areas covered: Regulations that govern the manufacture of complex vaccines can be inconsistent between countries and need to be aligned with the regulatory requirements that apply in all countries of distribution. Changes in product mix and quantities can lead to uncertainty in vaccine supply maintenance. These problems are discussed in the context of the importance of these products as essential public health tools. Expert commentary: Increasing demand for complex vaccines globally has led to problems in supply due to intrinsically complex manufacturing and regulatory procedures. Vaccine manufacturers are fully engaged in the resolution of these challenges, but currently changes in demand need ideally to be anticipated approximately 3 years in advance due to long production cycle times.

An evidence synthesis approach to estimating the incidence of symptomatic pertussis infection in the Netherlands, 2005-2011

BACKGROUND

Despite high vaccination coverage, infection with Bordetella pertussis is a current public health concern in the Netherlands and other European Union member states. Because surveillance data are subject to extensive under-ascertainment and under-reporting, incidence is difficult to determine. Our objective was to estimate the age-group specific incidence of symptomatic pertussis infection in the Netherlands over the period 2005-2011, using multi-parameter evidence synthesis.

METHODS

Age-specific seroconversion probabilities were estimated for 2007 using Netherlands population data stratified by age-group and cross-sectional population-wide serosurvey (PIENTER-2) data, with a sero-diagnostic cut-off of 125 EU/ml as a proxy for recent infection. Symptomatic probabilities were derived from a study of household contacts and from PIENTER-2. The annual number of symptomatic infected (SI) persons was estimated using evidence synthesis methods in a Bayesian framework, by combining the estimated incidence of infection with notification data and symptomatic probabilities.

RESULTS

An incidence rate of 128 SI cases per 10,000 population (95 % credible interval [CrI]: 110-150) was estimated for 2005, which decreased to 107 per 10,000 (95 % CrI: 91-126) for 2011. The degree of underestimation in statutory notified cases was age-dependent, ranging from 10-fold (10-19 years) to 69-fold (60+ years). The largest annual decreases in SI incidence rate over the study period were in the 1-4 and 5-9 years age-groups (24.3 %, 15.9 % per year, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

By synthesising all available data, the incidence of symptomatic pertussis and the extent to which SI is underrepresented by notification data can be estimated. Such estimates are essential for disease burden computation and for informing public health priority-setting.