Evaluation of vaccine derived poliovirus type 2 outbreak response options: A randomized controlled trial, Karachi, Pakistan

Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria

Background

Despite the successes of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, substantial challenges remain in eradicating the poliovirus. The Sabin-strain (live-attenuated) virus in oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) can revert to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) in under-vaccinated communities, regain neurovirulence and transmissibility, and cause paralysis outbreaks. Since the cessation of type 2-containing OPV (OPV2) in 2016, there have been cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks in four out of six geographical World Health Organization regions, making these outbreaks a significant public health threat. Preparing for and responding to cVDPV2 outbreaks requires an updated understanding of how different factors, such as outbreak responses with the novel type of OPV2 (nOPV2) and the existence of under-vaccinated areas, affect the disease spread.

Methods

We built a differential-equation-based model to simulate the transmission of cVDPV2 following reversion of the Sabin-strain virus in prolonged circulation. The model incorporates vaccinations by essential (routine) immunization and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), the immunity induced by different poliovirus vaccines, and the reversion process from Sabin-strain virus to cVDPV. The model's outcomes include weekly cVDPV2 paralytic case counts and the die-out date when cVDPV2 transmission stops. In a case study of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria, we fit the model to data on the weekly cVDPV2 case counts with onset in 2018-2021. We then used the model to test the impact of different outbreak response scenarios during a prediction period of 2022-2023. The response scenarios included no response, the planned response (based on Nigeria's SIA calendar), and a set of hypothetical responses that vary in the dates at which SIAs started. The planned response scenario included two rounds of SIAs that covered almost all areas of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria except some under-vaccinated areas (e.g., Sokoto). The hypothetical response scenarios involved two, three, and four rounds of SIAs that covered the whole Northwest and Northeast Nigeria. All SIAs in tested outbreak response scenarios used nOPV2. We compared the outcomes of tested outbreak response scenarios in the prediction period.

Results

Modeled cVDPV2 weekly case counts aligned spatiotemporally with the data. The prediction results indicated that implementing the planned response reduced total case counts by 79% compared to no response, but did not stop the transmission, especially in under-vaccinated areas. Implementing the hypothetical response scenarios involving two rounds of nOPV2 SIAs that covered all areas further reduced cVDPV2 case counts in under-vaccinated areas by 91-95% compared to the planned response, with greater impact from completing the two rounds at an earlier time, but it did not stop the transmission. When the first two rounds were completed in early April 2022, implementing two additional rounds stopped the transmission in late January 2023. When the first two rounds were completed six weeks earlier (i.e., in late February 2022), implementing one (two) additional round stopped the transmission in early February 2023 (late November 2022). The die out was always achieved last in the under-vaccinated areas of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria.

Conclusions

A differential-equation-based model of poliovirus transmission was developed and validated in a case study of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria. The results highlighted (i) the effectiveness of nOPV2 in reducing outbreak case counts; (ii) the need for more rounds of outbreak response SIAs that covered all of Northwest and Northeast Nigeria in 2022 to stop the cVDPV2 outbreaks; (iii) that persistent transmission in under-vaccinated areas delayed the progress towards stopping outbreaks; and (iv) that a quicker outbreak response would avert more paralytic cases and require fewer SIA rounds to stop the outbreaks.

Immunogenicity evaluation of primary polio vaccination schedule with inactivated poliovirus vaccines and bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine

BACKGROUND

To assess the immunogenicity of the current primary polio vaccination schedule in China and compare it with alternative schedules using Sabin or Salk-strain IPV (sIPV, wIPV).

METHODS

A cross-sectional investigation was conducted at four sites in Chongqing, China, healthy infants aged 60-89 days were conveniently recruited and divided into four groups according to their received primary polio vaccination schedules (2sIPV + bOPV, 2wIPV + bOPV, 3sIPV, and 3wIPV). The sero-protection and neutralizing antibody titers against poliovirus serotypes (type 1, 2, and 3) were compared after the last dose.

RESULTS

There were 408 infants completed the protocol. The observed seropositivity was more than 96% against poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 in all groups. IPV-only groups induced higher antibody titers(GMT) against poliovirus type 2 (Median:192, QR: 96-384, P<0.05) than the "2IPV + bOPV" group. While the "2IPV + bOPV" group induced significantly higher antibody titers against poliovirus type 1 (Median:2048, QR: 768-2048, P<0.05)and type 3 (Median:2048, QR: 512-2048, P<0.05) than the IPV-only group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings have proved that the two doses of IPV with one dose of bOPV is currently the best polio routine immunization schedule in China.

A circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreak in a chronic conflict setting: a descriptive epidemiological study in South Sudan - 2020 to 2021

BACKGROUND

In this study, we describe the epidemiological profile of an outbreak of the circulating Vaccine Derived Polio Virus type 2 in South Sudan from 2020 to 2021.

METHOD

We conducted a retrospective descriptive epidemiological study using data from the national polio/AFP surveillance database, the outbreak investigation reports, and the vaccination coverage survey databases stored at the national level.

RESULTS

Between September 2020 and April 2021, 59 cases of the circulating virus were confirmed in the country, with 50 cases in 2020 and 9 cases in 2021. More cases were males (56%) under five (93%). The median age of the cases was 23.4 ± 11.9 months, ranging from 1 to 84 months. All states, with 28 out of the 80 counties, reported at least one case. Most of the cases (44, 75%) were reported from five states, namely Warrap (31%), Western Bahr el Ghazal (12%), Unity (12%), Central Equatoria (10%), and Jonglei (10%). Four counties accounted for 45.8% of the cases; these are Gogrial West with 12 (20%), Jur River with 5 (8.5%), Tonj North with 5 (8.5%), and Juba with 5 (8.5%) cases. The immunization history of the confirmed cases indicated that 14 (24%) of the affected children had never received any doses of oral polio or injectable vaccines either from routine or during supplemental immunization before the onset of paralysis, 17 (28.8%) had received 1 to 2 doses, while 28 (47.5%) had received 3 or more doses (Fig. 4). Two immunization campaigns and a mop-up were conducted with monovalent Oral Polio Vaccine type 2 in response to the outbreak, with administrative coverage of 91.1%, 99.1%, and 97% for the first, second, and mop-up rounds, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The emergence of the circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreak in South Sudan was due to low population immunity, highlighting the need to improve the country's routine and polio immunization campaign coverage.

Deployment of novel oral polio vaccine type 2 under emergency use listing in Nigeria: the rollout experience

In 2011, a dedicated consortium of experts commenced work on the development of the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2). After careful and rigorous analysis of data to enable early, targeted use of the vaccine, World Health Organization´s (WHO´s) Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) reviewed data from accelerated clinical development of nOPV2 and endorsed entering assessment under WHO´s Emergency Use Listing (EUL) procedure. In November 2020, nOPV2 received an interim recommendation for use under EUL to enable rapid field availability and potential wider rollout of the vaccine. In December 2020, Nigeria initiated preparation to meet all criteria for initial use of nOPV2 in the country and the documentation process to verify meeting them. The process entailed addressing the status of meeting 25 readiness criteria in nine categories for nOPV2 use in Nigeria for response efforts to ongoing cVDPV2 outbreaks. During January-February 2021, Nigeria submitted the required documentation for all required indicators for nOPV2 initial use. In February 2021, the country obtained approval from the GPEI nOPV2 Readiness Verification Team to introduce nOPV2 and in March 2021, rolled out the novel vaccine in mass vaccination campaigns for outbreak response in Bayelsa, Delta, Niger, Sokoto and Zamfara states, and one area council in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The lessons learned from this rollout experience in Nigeria are being applied as the country streamlines and strengthens the nOPV2 rollout process across the remaining states.

Review of use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine in campaigns to control type 2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks

Delivering inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in campaigns has been explored to accelerate the control of type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks. A review of scientific literature suggests that among populations with high prevalence of OPV failure, a booster with IPV after at least two doses of OPV may close remaining humoral and mucosal immunity gaps more effectively than an additional dose of trivalent OPV. However, IPV alone demonstrates minimal advantage on humoral immunity compared with monovalent and bivalent OPV, and cannot provide the intestinal immunity that prevents infection and spread to those individuals not previously exposed to live poliovirus of the same serotype (i.e. type 2 for children born after the switch from trivalent to bivalent OPV in April 2016). A review of operational data from polio campaigns shows that addition of IPV increases the cost and logistic complexity of campaigns. As a result, campaigns in response to an outbreak often target small areas. Large campaigns require a delay to ensure logistics are in place for IPV delivery, and may need implementation in phases that last several weeks. Challenges to delivery of injectable vaccines through house-to-house visits also increases the risk of missing the children who are more likely to benefit from IPV: those with difficult access to routine immunization and other health services. Based upon this information, the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts in immunization (SAGE) recommended in October 2020 the following strategies: provision of a second dose of IPV in routine immunization to reduce the risk and number of paralytic cases in countries at risk of importation or new emergences; and use of type 2 OPV in high-quality campaigns to interrupt transmission and avoid seeding new type 2 cVDPV outbreaks.

Risk factors for the spread of vaccine-derived type 2 polioviruses after global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine and the effects of outbreak responses with monovalent vaccine: a retrospective analysis of surveillance data for 51 countries in Africa

BACKGROUND

Expanding outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2) across Africa after the global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 2016 are delaying global polio eradication. We aimed to assess the effect of outbreak response campaigns with monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2) and the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunisation.

METHODS

We used vaccination history data from children under 5 years old with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis from a routine surveillance database (the Polio Information System) and setting-specific OPV immunogenicity data from the literature to estimate OPV-induced and IPV-induced population immunity against type 2 poliomyelitis between Jan 1, 2015, and June 30, 2020, for 51 countries in Africa. We investigated risk factors for reported cVDPV2 poliomyelitis including population immunity, outbreak response activities, and correlates of poliovirus transmission using logistic regression. We used the model to estimate cVDPV2 risk for each 6-month period between Jan 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020, with different numbers of mOPV2 campaigns and compared the timing and location of actual mOPV2 campaigns and the number of mOPV2 campaigns required to reduce cVDPV2 risk to low levels.

FINDINGS

Type 2 OPV immunity among children under 5 years declined from a median of 87% (IQR 81-93) in January-June, 2016 to 14% (9-37) in January-June, 2020. Type 2 immunity from IPV among children under 5 years increased from 3% (<1-6%) in January-June, 2016 to 35% (24-47) in January-June, 2020. The probability of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis among children under 5 years was negatively correlated with OPV-induced and IPV-induced immunity and mOPV2 campaigns (adjusted odds ratio: OPV 0·68 [95% CrI 0·60-0·76], IPV 0·82 [0·68-0·99] per 10% absolute increase in estimated population immunity, mOPV2 0·30 [0·20-0·44] per campaign). Vaccination campaigns in response to cVDPV2 outbreaks have been smaller and slower than our model shows would be necessary to reduce risk to low levels, covering only 11% of children under 5 years who are predicted to be at risk within 6 months and only 56% within 12 months.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that as mucosal immunity declines, larger or faster responses with vaccination campaigns using type 2-containing OPV will be required to stop cVDPV2 transmission. IPV-induced immunity also has an important role in reducing the burden of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis in Africa.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, and WHO.

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Immunogenicity of reduced-dose monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine in Mocuba, Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) stockpile is low. One potential strategy to stretch the existing mOPV2 supply is to administer a reduced dose: one-drop instead of two-drops.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized, controlled, open-label, non-inferiority trial (10% margin) to compared immunogenicity following administration of one versus two-drops of mOPV2. We enrolled 9-22-months old infants from Mocuba district of Mozambique. Poliovirus neutralizing antibodies were measured in sera collected before and one month after mOPV2 administration. Immune response was defined as seroconversion from seronegative (<1:8) at baseline to seropositive (>1:8) after vaccination or boosting titers by >4-fold for those with titers between 1:8 and 1:362 at baseline. The trial was registered at anzctr.org.au (number ACTRN12619000184178p).

RESULTS

We enrolled 378 children and 262 (69%) completed per-protocol requirements. Immune response of mOPV2 was 53.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 44.9%-62.1%) and 60.6% (95% CI: 52.2%-68.4%) in 1-drop and 2-drops recipients, respectively. The non-inferiority margin of the 10% was not reached (difference=7.0%; 95%CI= -5.0-19.0).

CONCLUSION

A small loss of immunogenicity of reduced mOPV2 was observed. Although the non-inferiority target was not achieved, the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization, recommended the 1-drop strategy as a dose-sparing measure if mOPV2 supplies deteriorate further.