Inactivated influenza vaccine does not reduce all cause respiratory illness in children with pre-existing medical conditions

Impact of 7-valent versus 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on primary care consultations across various age groups in the Netherlands, 5 years after the switch: A time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2011, 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) replaced PCV7 in The Netherlands. We aimed to assess the impact of this switch on non-invasive pneumococcal disease in primary care across various age-groups, including pneumonia-bronchitis, otitis media (OM) and sinusitis with and without considering pre-PCV10 secular trends.

METHODS

Electronic records of 397,441 individuals included in a regional primary care database from July 2006 to June 2016 were extracted (2,408,762 person-years). We fitted interrupted time-series on annual incidence rates (IR) of primary care diagnosed pneumonia-bronchitis, OM and sinusitis episodes per age-group. We performed these two types of analyses, comparing; 1) the post-PCV10 observed versus expected trend if PCV10 had not been implemented and pre-PCV10 secular trends had continued 2), the pre- versus post-PCV10 observed, model fitted trend. The latter assumes no secular trend. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated using both methods.

RESULTS

We found significant reductions following PCV10 introduction with both analysis methods for pneumonia-bronchitis in the pediatric and adult age-groups, for sinusitis in the age-group 20-50 years and for OM, the effect across various age-groups are uncertain given contradictory results. For other outcomes and age-groups, the effect estimates were not consistent across the two-method used and heavily depended on the strength of the underlying trend. No consistent effects were observed in the elderly population, considering the two methods used.

CONCLUSION

Our study supports some direct and indirect-effect of PCV10 introduction on non-IPD, mainly on pneumonia-bronchitis, but estimates heavily depend on the method of analysis used. Estimates from the two different approaches may differ substantially if underlying trends are strong.

Impact of influenza vaccination in the Netherlands, 2007-2016: Vaccinees consult their general practitioner for clinically diagnosed influenza, acute respiratory infections, and pneumonia more often than non-vaccinees

Introduction

We aimed to develop an innovative population-based method to estimate the health effect of influenza vaccination based on electronic medical records collected within a general practitioner (GP)-based influenza surveillance system in the Netherlands.

Methods

In each season between 2006/07 and 2015/16, we fitted multilevel Poisson regression models to compare GP consultation rates for clinically diagnosed influenza, acute respiratory infections (ARI), pneumonia, and lower back pain (as a control) between vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals. Season-specific relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were pooled into summary risk ratio (SRR) through random-effects meta-analysis models. Analyses were stratified by patient age (<45, 45–59, 60–74, ≥75 years) and medical indication for the vaccine (any vs. none, subjects aged ≤60 years only).

Results

Overall, 12.6% and 21.4% of study subjects were vaccinated because of their age only or because of an underlying medical condition. Vaccine uptake declined over time, especially among subjects aged ≤74 years with medical indications for vaccination. Vaccinated individuals had significantly higher GP consultation rates for clinically diagnosed influenza (SRR 1.24, 95% CI 1.12–1.38, p-value <0.001), ARI (SRR 1.33, 95% CI 1.27–1.39, p-value <0.001), pneumonia (SRR 1.27, 95% CI 1.19–1.36, p-value <0.001), and lower back pain (SRR 1.21, 95% CI 1.14–1.28, p-value <0.001) compared to unvaccinated individuals.

Discussion

Contrary to expectations, influenza vaccinees have GP consultation rates for clinically diagnosed influenza, ARI and pneumonia that are 24–33% higher compared to unvaccinated individuals. The lower back pain finding suggests that the increase in consultation rates is partially caused by confounding. Importantly, considering the data are not laboratory-confirmed, our results cannot be linked directly to influenza, but only to respiratory illnesses in general.

Immune Response and Protective Efficacy of Inactivated and Live Influenza Vaccines Against Homologous and Heterosubtypic Challenge

Inactivated (whole-virion, split, subunit, and adjuvanted) vaccines and live attenuated vaccine were tested in parallel to compare their immunogenicity and protective efficacy. Homologous and heterosubtypic protection against the challenge with influenza H5N1 and H1N1 viruses in a mouse model were studied. Single immunization with live or inactivated whole-virion H5N1 vaccine elicited a high level of serum antibodies and provided complete protection against the challenge with the lethal A/Chicken/Kurgan/3/05 (H5N1) virus, whereas application of a single dose of the split vaccine was much less effective. Adjuvants increased the antibody levels. Addition of the Iso-SANP adjuvant to the split vaccine led to a paradoxical outcome: it increased the antibody levels but reduced the protective effect of the vaccine. All tested adjuvants shifted the ratio between IgG1 and IgG2a antibodies. Immunization with any of the tested heterosubtypic live viruses provided partial protection against the H5N1 challenge and significantly reduced mouse mortality, while inactivated H1N1 vaccine offered no protection at all. More severe course of illness and earlier death were observed in mice after immunization with adjuvanted subunit vaccines followed by the challenge with the heterosubtypic virus compared to challenged unvaccinated animals.

Cost-effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccination in children with medical risk conditions in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

In many countries, annual immunization with inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) is recommended for children with medical risk conditions. Prior cost-effectiveness analyses found such immunization to be cost saving, but assumed effectiveness against non-severe influenza outcomes and a higher effectiveness against severe influenza outcomes than recent studies would suggest. However, recent vaccine studies do not indicate any reduction in community or outpatient disease episodes in IIV immunized individuals. We therefore evaluated cost-effectiveness of IIV immunization in children with medical risk conditions in the Netherlands, assuming that IIV reduces influenza-related hospitalization and death, but has no meaningful impact on non-severe health outcomes.

METHODS

A health economic decision tree model was developed to evaluate health effects and costs of annual IIV immunization versus no immunization. Model inputs were based on our study on influenza-related primary care visits and other literature. Immunization was considered cost effective if associated costs were less than €20,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess robustness of results, and one-way sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were done to assess the influence of individual parameters.

RESULTS

Annual IIV prevents an average of 1.59 influenza-related hospitalizations and 0.02 deaths per 1,000 children with medical risk conditions. This results in an expected QALY gain of 0.43 at incremental costs of €21,564 per 1,000 children, corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €50,297/QALY compared to no immunization. Under base case assumptions, immunization had a 5% probability of being cost effective. Results were most influenced by vaccine efficacy against fatal influenza, QALY loss due to death, and mortality rate.

CONCLUSIONS

If IIV only reduces severe disease outcomes, as current evidence suggests, annual immunization of medical risk children is unlikely to be cost effective. Results should however be interpreted with caution as cost-effectiveness is largely dependent on incidence and QALY losses for fatal influenza, for which evidence is scarce.