Evaluation of pneumococcal meningitis clusters in Burkina Faso and implications for potential reactive vaccination

Modelling control strategies for pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks in the African meningitis belt

INTRODUCTION

Pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks occur sporadically in the African meningitis belt. Outbreak control guidelines and interventions are well established for meningococcal but not pneumococcal meningitis. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for assessing the potential impact of different pneumococcal control strategies. This work aimed to estimate the impact of reactive vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) had it been implemented in past African meningitis belt outbreaks and assess their efficiency relative to existing routine infant immunisation with PCV.

METHODS & RESULTS

Using recent pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Ghana as case studies, we investigated the potential impact of reactive vaccination. We calculated the number needed to vaccinate to avert one case (NNV) in each outbreak setting and over all outbreaks and compared this to the NNV for existing routine infant vaccination. We extended previous analyses of reactive vaccination by considering longer-term protection in vaccinees over five years, incorporating a proxy for indirect effects. We found that implementing reactive vaccination in previous pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks could have averted up to 10-20 % of outbreak cases, with the biggest potential impact in Brong Ahafo, Ghana (2015-2016) and Goundi, Chad (2009). The NNV, and hence the value of reactive vaccination, varied greatly. 'Large' (80 + cumulative modelled cases per 100,000 population) and/or 'prolonged' (exceeding a response threshold of 10 suspected cases per 100,000 per week for four weeks or more) outbreaks had NNV estimates under 10,000. For routine infant vaccination with PCV, the estimated NNV ranged from 3,100-5,600 in Burkina Faso and 1,500-2,600 in Ghana.

IMPLICATIONS

This analysis provides evidence to inform the design of pneumococcal meningitis outbreak response guidelines. Countries should consider reactive vaccination in each outbreak event, together with maintaining routine infant vaccination as the primary intervention to reduce pneumococcal disease burden and outbreak risk.

Estimating the economic burden of pneumococcal meningitis and pneumonia in northern Ghana in the African meningitis belt post-PCV13 introduction

BACKGROUND

Ghana introduced 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) into the routine infant immunization program in 2012, using a three-dose primary series without a booster. Despite ≥ 88% reported three-dose vaccination coverage since 2013, PCV13-type pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks have occurred. We estimated the ongoing economic burden of PCV13-type pneumococcal meningitis and pneumonia in northern Ghana, an area within the African meningitis belt with seasonal increases of pneumococcal meningitis post-PCV13 introduction, to inform PCV13 vaccination policy.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional survey among patients with pneumonia or meningitis at three hospitals in northern Ghana to determine patient-level costs (direct medical and nonmedical, indirect patient and caregiver costs) incurred in household, outpatient, and inpatient settings. Pneumonia burden was estimated using 2017-2018 administrative records. Pneumococcal meningitis burden was estimated using 2017-2018 case-based surveillance data. Economic burden was reported in 2019 U.S. dollars ($) from the societal perspective.

RESULTS

For an area with a total population of 5,068,521, our model estimated 6,441 PCV13-type pneumonia cases and 286 PCV13-type meningitis cases occurred in a typical year post-PCV13. In the base case scenario, the total economic burden was $5,230,035 per year ($777 per case). By age group, cost per PCV13-type pneumonia case was $423 (<5 years), $911 (5-14 years), and $784 (≥15 years); cost per PCV13-type meningitis case was $2,128 (<5 years), $3,247 (5-14 years), and $2,883 (≥15 years). Most (78.0-93.4%) of the total societal cost was due to indirect costs related to deaths from PCV13-type diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated economic burden of PCV13-type disease in northern Ghana remains substantial, especially in older children and adults who were expected to have benefited from indirect effects from infant immunization. Additional interventions such as changes in the infant immunization schedule, reactive vaccination, or catch-up PCV13 vaccination may be needed to control remaining vaccine-type disease.

Pneumococcal vaccine implementation in the African meningitis belt countries: the emerging need for alternative strategies

Introduction: Besides meningococcal disease, the African meningitis belt (AMB) region is also affected by pneumococcal disease. Most AMB countries have introduced pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) following a schedule of three primary doses without a booster or a catch-up campaign. PCV is expected to help control pneumococcal disease through both direct and indirect effects. Whether and how fast this will be achieved greatly depends on implementation strategies. Pre-PCV data from the AMB indicate high carriage rates of the pneumococcus, not only in infants but also in older children, and a risk of disease and death that spans lifetime. Post-PCV data highlight the protection of vaccinated children, but pneumococcal transmission remains important, resulting in a lack of indirect protection for unvaccinated persons.Areas covered: A non-systematic literature review focused on AMB countries. Relevant search terms were used in PubMed, and selected studies before and after PCV introduction were summarized narratively to appraise the suitability of current PCV programmatic strategies.Expert opinion: The current implementation strategy of PCV in the AMB appears suboptimal regarding the generation of indirect protection. We propose and discuss alternative programmatic strategies, including the implementation of broader age group mass campaigns, to accelerate disease control in this high transmission setting.