On the influence of second use, future battery technologies, and battery lifetime on the maximum recycled content of future electric vehicle batteries in Europe

Prediction of metal recovery potential of end-of-life NEV batteries in China based on GRA-BiLSTM

As Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) sales continue to grow, end-of-life batteries have great potential for recycling in the future. In this study, a combined model based on Gray Relation Analysis and Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (GRA-BiLSTM) is proposed for predicting NEV sales, and the NEV battery life is modeled using the Weibull distribution. Then, the amount of end-of-life batteries, secondary utilization and metal recycling are calculated. The impact of end-of-life battery recycling on the supply and demand of key metals is studied. The results show that in 2040, the secondary utilization of end-of-life batteries in the Standard Growth Rate-Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Dominated-High Secondary Utilization rate scenario (SGR-LFPH) is 391.76 GWh. The recycling volumes of lithium, nickel and cobalt are 45,900 tons, 92,900 tons and 22,100 tons, respectively. In the Standard Growth Rate-lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide Battery Dominated-Low Secondary Utilization rate scenario (SGR-NCML), the recycling of lithium, nickel and cobalt is even greater, at 62,600 tons, 372,200 tons and 71,700 tons, respectively. End-of-life batteries recycling can reduce the demand for metals. However, as NEV sales continue to grow, the gap between metal supply and demand remains significant. The findings urge the Chinese government develop appropriate battery management strategies to increase the recycling rate of end-of-life batteries; and to encourage enterprises to research new types of batteries to resolve the conflict between supply and demand for metals.

On the potential of vehicle-to-grid and second-life batteries to provide energy and material security

The global energy transition relies increasingly on lithium-ion batteries for electric transportation and renewable energy integration. Given the highly concentrated supply chain of battery materials, importing regions have a strategic imperative to reduce their reliance on battery material imports through, e.g., battery recycling or reuse. We investigate the potential of vehicle-to-grid and second-life batteries to reduce resource use by displacing new stationary batteries dedicated to grid storage. Based on dynamic material flow analysis, we show that equipping around 50% of electric vehicles with vehicle-to-grid or reusing 40% of electric vehicle batteries for second life each have the potential to fully cover the European Union's need for stationary storage by 2040. This could reduce total primary material demand from 2020-2050 by up to 7.5% and 1.5%, respectively, which could ease geopolitical risks and increase the European Union's energy and material security. Any surplus capacity could be used as a strategic reserve to increase resilience in the face of emergencies such as blackouts or adverse geo-political events.

Exploring the state of health of electric vehicle batteries at end of use; hierarchical waste flow analysis to determine the recycling and reuse potential

With the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, their end-of-life management is a timely matter. This requires recognizing the upcoming volume of retired electric-vehicle-batteries to the waste stream. The projection is further useful if we have an estimation of the remaining value within them to categorize the recycling or repurposing potential to allow appropriate policy development and facility planning. This qualification assessment is neglected in the current literature. Neglecting the health status of retired batteries in estimating their residual value might end up over or underestimating their reuse and recycling potential. This study aims to provide a hierarchical battery waste estimation based on their health and age of disposal in Ireland. These two factors are the fundamental parameters in determining the feasibility of repurposing or recycling retired batteries. Identifying this information, we defined three reuse scenarios with different state-of-health limits. Results indicate almost 50%, 30%, and below 10% repurposing potential in the year 2050 when setting a repurposing threshold of above 80%, 85%, and 90%, respectively. The authors also highlight the effect of non-regional repurposing on the recycling potential.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13243-024-00137-4.

Prospects of recycling from end-of-life of Li-ion batteries on alleviating materials demand-supply gap in new electric vehicles in Asia

The acceptance of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is continuously increasing to mitigate CO2 emissions, resulting in an increase in the future material demand for LIBs. Therefore, the proper handling of End-of-life (EOL) BEV batteries requires careful attention to mitigate the supply chain issues for future LIBs materials, especially in Asia. A system dynamics model assessment was performed to evaluate the EOL of LIBs by considering the dynamic lifespan, recovery rate, and economic value under three growth rate scenarios in Asia from 2022 to 2030, depending on the battery chemistry over time. We find that comparing three different scenarios to materials demand, the result showed that materials demand for LIBs is greater in higher scenarios as compared with lower and reference scenarios. Moreover, in the low scenario, the nickel demand and recovery from end-of-life LIBs BEVs will achieve 244.0 and 43.28 kt in 2030. Based on the dynamic economic evaluation, an overall, higher potential economic value of all materials would achieve around 1471 million USD in 2030 in the low scenario. This study manifested that recycling LIBs materials has enormous economic potential and would be a step towards economic sustainability, especially in Asia in the near future.

The economic and environmental impacts of shared collection service systems for retired electric vehicle batteries

One of the impending consequences of the rapid penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is that a substantial amount of expired EV batteries will present an increasing waste collection and management problem, particularly in the urban context. Motivated by a lack of research on this issue, this paper comprehensively evaluates the relative benefits of shared versus non-shared collection systems, where the service outlets are not exclusive to specified automakers. Using a mixed-integer optimization model, the analysis features spatiotemporal and multiple stakeholder complexities. Based on the historical monthly EV sales data from 2016 to 2021, a representative case study of Beijing, China is conducted, including 16 district centers, 32 major automobile manufacturers, 153 collection service outlets and 4 disposal centers. The results show that a shared collection service system leads to higher profitability, higher collection rates, increased environmental benefits and improved facility utilization. Consequently, this research contributes to supply chain liberalization to foster the efficient waste management of EV batteries. With a further model extension, it can also provide decision support for the policy-making of more countries.

China's electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) on a large scale is crucial for meeting the desired climate commitments, where affordability plays a vital role. However, the expected surge in prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, four critical materials in EV batteries, could hinder EV uptake. To explore these impacts in the context of China, the world's largest EV market, we expand and enrich an integrated assessment model. We find that under a high material cost surge scenario, EVs would account for 35% (2030) and 51% (2060) of the total number of vehicles in China, significantly lower than 49% (2030) and 67% (2060) share in the base-line, leading to a 28% increase in cumulative carbon emissions (2020-2060) from road transportation. While material recycling and technical battery innovation are effective long-term countermeasures, securing the supply chains of critical materials through international cooperation is highly recommended, given geopolitical and environmental fragilities.

Modeling the impact of nickel recycling from batteries on nickel demand during vehicle electrification in China from 2010 to 2050

China is promoting the production and use of electric vehicles (EVs) to achieve carbon neutrality. However, the shift will drive higher demand and tighter supply of nickel in China. We develop a stock-driven bottom-up dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) model to simulate the demand trends of various EVs under 3 scenarios, the flow of nickel under 9 scenarios and the amount of recoverable nickel under 27 scenarios in China's EV industry from 2010 to 2050. The results indicate that China's current production capacity and primary reserves of nickel cannot meet the growing nickel demand, especially under the High EVs-LNCT scenarios, and closed-loop nickel recovery from EV batteries can effectively alleviate the demand-supply contradiction. In different scenarios, the annual recycling nickel could cover between 67.7 % and 96.6 % of the demand for EV batteries in 2050, and between 37.9 % and 58.1 % in terms of the cumulative quantity by 2050. When the low nickel battery technology is adopted and the recovery efficiency is rapidly improved, the recovered nickel would meet the demand for EV batteries to the highest degree. Therefore, sufficient attention should be paid to low-nickel battery technology and efficient recycling of spent EV batteries, which is of great significance to ensure the development of EV industry and the availability of nickel in China.

Effects of High Ambient Temperature on Electric Vehicle Efficiency and Range: Case Study of Kuwait

The use of electric vehicles (EVs) provides a pathway to sustainable transport, reducing emissions and contributing to net-zero carbon aspirations. However, consumer acceptance has been limited by travel range anxiety and a lack of knowledge about EV technology and its infrastructure. This is especially the case in hot and oil-rich areas such as Kuwait, where transport is predominantly fossil fuel-driven. Studying the effects of high ambient temperature on EV efficiency and range is essential to improve EV performance, increase the user base and promote early adoption to secure more environmental benefits. The ability to determine the energy consumption of electric vehicles (EVs) is not only vital to reduce travel range anxiety but also forms an important foundation for the spatial siting, operation and management of EV charging points in cities and towns. This research presents an analysis of data gathered from more than 3000 journeys of an EV in Kuwait representing typical vehicle usage. The average energy intensity and consumption of the car/kilometre travelled were calculated for each journey, along with ambient temperature measured by the vehicle. The analysis indicates that energy intensity reaches a minimum at a starting temperature between 22 °C and 23 °C. Energy intensity rises with decreasing temperature below this point and with increasing temperature above this point. The results show that many vehicle journeys started with high temperatures, with about half of journeys starting at 30 °C or above and approximately a quarter at 40 °C or above. Fitting a model to the empirical data for trip starting temperature and energy intensity, average efficiency is impacted at high car temperatures, with energy intensity modelled at 30 °C and 40 °C to be higher by 6% and 22%, respectively. These findings have implications for vehicle range, EV charging infrastructure and car storage and parking provision.

Future Trends and Aging Analysis of Battery Energy Storage Systems for Electric Vehicles

The increase of electric vehicles (EVs), environmental concerns, energy preservation, battery selection, and characteristics have demonstrated the headway of EV development. It is known that the battery units require special considerations because of their nature of temperature sensitivity, aging effects, degradation, cost, and sustainability. Hence, EV advancement is currently concerned where batteries are the energy accumulating infers for EVs. This paper discusses recent trends and developments in battery deployment for EVs. Systematic reviews on explicit energy, state-of-charge, thermal efficiency, energy productivity, life cycle, battery size, market revenue, security, and commerciality are provided. The review includes battery-based energy storage advances and their development, characterizations, qualities of power transformation, and evaluation measures with advantages and burdens for EV applications. This study offers a guide for better battery selection based on exceptional performance proposed for traction applications (e.g., BEVs and HEVs), considering EV’s advancement subjected to sustainability issues, such as resource depletion and the release in the environment of ozone and carbon-damaging substances. This study also provides a case study on an aging assessment for the different types of batteries investigated. The case study targeted lithium-ion battery cells and how aging analysis can be influenced by factors such as ambient temperature, cell temperature, and charging and discharging currents. These parameters showed considerable impacts on life cycle numbers, as a capacity fading of 18.42%, between 25–65 °C was observed. Finally, future trends and demand of the lithium-ion batteries market could increase by 11% and 65%, between 2020–2025, for light-duty and heavy-duty EVs.

Separation of cathode particles and aluminum current foil in lithium-ion battery by high-voltage pulsed discharge Part II: Prospective life cycle assessment based on experimental data

This series of papers addresses the recycling of cathode particles and aluminum (Al) foil from positive electrode sheet (PE sheet) dismantled from spent lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) by applying a high-voltage pulsed discharge. As concluded in Part I of the series (Tokoro et al., 2021), cathode particles and Al foil were separated in water based on a single pulsed power application. This separation of LIB components by pulsed discharge was examined by means of prospective life cycle assessment and is expected to have applications in LIB reuse and recycling. The indicators selected were life cycle greenhouse gas (LC-GHG) emissions and life cycle resource consumption potential (LC-RCP). We first completed supplementary experiments to collect redundant data under several scale-up circumstances, and then attempted to quantify the uncertainties from scaling up and progress made in battery technology. When the batch scale of pulsed discharge separation is sufficiently large, the recovery of cathode particles and Al foil from PE sheet by pulsed discharge can reduce both LC-GHG and LC-RCP, in contrast to conventional recycling with roasting processes. Due to technology developments in LIB cathodes, the reuse of positive electrode active materials (PEAM) does not always have lower environmental impacts than the recycling of the raw materials of PEAM in the manufacturing of new LIB cathodes. This study achieved a proof of concept for resource consumption reduction induced by cathode utilization, considering LC-GHG and LC-RCP, by applying high-voltage pulsed discharge separation.

Privileging Electric Vehicles as an Element of Promoting Sustainable Urban Mobility—Effects on the Local Transport System in a Large Metropolis in Poland

The main purpose of this article was to determine the impact on the equilibrium of the local transport system from privileging EVs by permitting them to use bus lanes. The study used two sets of data: information on infrastructure and traffic management; and information on the recorded road network loads and traffic volumes generated by a given shopping centre—the E. Leclerc shopping centre (an important traffic generator within the city of Łódź, Poland). These sets were then used to develop a microsimulation traffic model for the shopping centre and the associated effects on the localised transport system. The model was constructed by means of the PTV Vissim software tool. An initial simulation was conducted that formed a basis for subsequent scenarios (in total, 17 simulations were performed). On the basis of the conducted analyses, it was established that—for the researched part of the transport system—privileging the still rather uncommon battery electric vehicles (BEVs) engendered a marginal deterioration of traffic conditions. At the same time, allowing BEVs to use bus lanes within the chosen research area had no negative impact on bus journey times.