Development of a dynamic machine learning algorithm to predict clinical pregnancy and live birth rate with embryo morphokinetics

Enhancing predictive models for egg donation: time to blastocyst hatching and machine learning insights

BACKGROUND

Data sciences and artificial intelligence are becoming encouraging tools in assisted reproduction, favored by time-lapse technology incubators. Our objective is to analyze, compare and identify the most predictive machine learning algorithm developed using a known implantation database of embryos transferred in our egg donation program, including morphokinetic and morphological variables, and recognize the most predictive embryo parameters in order to enhance IVF treatments clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Multicenter retrospective cohort study carried out in 378 egg donor recipients who performed a fresh single embryo transfer during 2021. All treatments were performed by Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection, using fresh or frozen oocytes. The embryos were cultured in Geri® time-lapse incubators until transfer on day 5. The embryonic morphokinetic events of 378 blastocysts with known implantation and live birth were analyzed. Classical statistical analysis (binary logistic regression) and 10 machine learning algorithms were applied including Multi-Layer Perceptron, Support Vector Machines, k-Nearest Neighbor, Cart and C0.5 Classification Trees, Random Forest (RF), AdaBoost Classification Trees, Stochastic Gradient boost, Bagged CART and eXtrem Gradient Boosting. These algorithms were developed and optimized by maximizing the area under the curve.

RESULTS

The Random Forest emerged as the most predictive algorithm for implantation (area under the curve, AUC = 0.725, IC 95% [0.6232-0826]). Overall, implantation and miscarriage rates stood at 56.08% and 18.39%, respectively. Overall live birth rate was 41.26%. Significant disparities were observed regarding time to hatching out of the zona pellucida (p = 0.039). The Random Forest algorithm demonstrated good predictive capabilities for live birth (AUC = 0.689, IC 95% [0.5821-0.7921]), but the AdaBoost classification trees proved to be the most predictive model for live birth (AUC = 0.749, IC 95% [0.6522-0.8452]). Other important variables with substantial predictive weight for implantation and live birth were duration of visible pronuclei (DESAPPN-APPN), synchronization of cleavage patterns (T8-T5), duration of compaction (TM-TiCOM), duration of compaction until first sign of cavitation (TiCAV-TM) and time to early compaction (TiCOM).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights Random Forest and AdaBoost as the most effective machine learning models in our Known Implantation and Live Birth Database from our egg donation program. Notably, time to blastocyst hatching out of the zona pellucida emerged as a highly reliable parameter significantly influencing our implantation machine learning predictive models. Processes involving syngamy, genomic imprinting during embryo cleavage, and embryo compaction are also influential and could be crucial for implantation and live birth outcomes.

Beyond black-box models: explainable AI for embryo ploidy prediction and patient-centric consultation

PURPOSE

To determine if an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model enhances the accuracy and transparency of predicting embryo ploidy status based on embryonic characteristics and clinical data.

METHODS

This retrospective study utilized a dataset of 1908 blastocyst embryos. The dataset includes ploidy status, morphokinetic features, morphology grades, and 11 clinical variables. Six machine learning (ML) models including Random Forest (RF), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), AdaBoost (ADA), and Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM) were trained to predict ploidy status probabilities across three distinct datasets: high-grade embryos (HGE, n = 1107), low-grade embryos (LGE, n = 364), and all-grade embryos (AGE, n = 1471). The model's performance was interpreted using XAI, including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) techniques.

RESULTS

The mean maternal age was 38.5 ± 3.85 years. The Random Forest (RF) model exhibited superior performance compared to the other five ML models, achieving an accuracy of 0.749 and an AUC of 0.808 for AGE. In the external test set, the RF model achieved an accuracy of 0.714 and an AUC of 0.750 (95% CI, 0.702-0.796). SHAP's feature impact analysis highlighted that maternal age, paternal age, time to blastocyst (tB), and day 5 morphology grade significantly impacted the predictive model. In addition, LIME offered specific case-ploidy prediction probabilities, revealing the model's assigned values for each variable within a finite range.

CONCLUSION

The model highlights the potential of using XAI algorithms to enhance ploidy prediction, optimize embryo selection as patient-centric consultation, and provides reliability and transparent insights into the decision-making process.

Artificial intelligence in time-lapse system: advances, applications, and future perspectives in reproductive medicine

With the rising demand for in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles, there is a growing need for innovative techniques to optimize procedure outcomes. One such technique is time-lapse system (TLS) for embryo incubation, which minimizes environmental changes in the embryo culture process. TLS also significantly advances predicting embryo quality, a crucial determinant of IVF cycle success. However, the current subjective nature of embryo assessments is due to inter- and intra-observer subjectivity, resulting in highly variable results. To address this challenge, reproductive medicine has gradually turned to artificial intelligence (AI) to establish a standardized and objective approach, aiming to achieve higher success rates. Extensive research is underway investigating the utilization of AI in TLS to predict multiple outcomes. These studies explore the application of popular AI algorithms, their specific implementations, and the achieved advancements in TLS. This review aims to provide an overview of the advances in AI algorithms and their particular applications within the context of TLS and the potential challenges and opportunities for further advancements in reproductive medicine.

Utilizing a Two-Stage Taguchi Method and Artificial Neural Network for the Precise Forecasting of Cardiovascular Disease Risk

The complexity of cardiovascular disease onset emphasizes the vital role of early detection in prevention. This study aims to enhance disease prediction accuracy using personal devices, aligning with point-of-care testing (POCT) objectives. This study introduces a two-stage Taguchi optimization (TSTO) method to boost predictive accuracy in an artificial neural network (ANN) model while minimizing computational costs. In the first stage, optimal hyperparameter levels and trends were identified. The second stage determined the best settings for the ANN model's hyperparameters. In this study, we applied the proposed TSTO method with a personal computer to the Kaggle Cardiovascular Disease dataset. Subsequently, we identified the best setting for the hyperparameters of the ANN model, setting the hidden layer to 4, activation function to tanh, optimizer to SGD, learning rate to 0.25, momentum rate to 0.85, and hidden nodes to 10. This setting led to a state-of-the-art accuracy of 74.14% in predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease. Moreover, the proposed TSTO method significantly reduced the number of experiments by a factor of 40.5 compared to the traditional grid search method. The TSTO method accurately predicts cardiovascular risk and conserves computational resources. It is adaptable for low-power devices, aiding the goal of POCT.

Application of artificial intelligence in gametes and embryos selection

Gamete and embryo quality are critical to the success rate of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) cycles, but there remains a lack of methods to accurately measure the quality of sperm, oocytes and embryos. The ability of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology to analyze large amounts of data, especially video and images, is particularly useful in gamete and embryo assessment and selection. The well-trained model has fast calculation speed and high accuracy, which can help embryologists to perform more objective gamete and embryo selection. Various artificial intelligence models have been developed for gamete and embryo assessment, some of which exhibit good performance. In this review, we summarize the latest applications of AI technology in semen analysis, as well as selection for sperm, oocyte and embryo, and discuss the existing problems and development directions of artificial intelligence in this field.

Application of Machine Learning for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are a common cause of heart failure globally. The need to explore possible ways to tackle the disease necessitated this study. The study designed a machine learning model for cardiovascular disease risk prediction in accordance with a dataset that contains 11 features which may be used to forecast the disease. The dataset from Kaggle on cardiovascular disease includes approximately 70,000 patient records that were used to determine the outcome. Compared to the UCI dataset, the Kaggle dataset has many more training and validation records. Models created using neural networks, random forests, Bayesian networks, C5.0, and QUEST were compared for this dataset. On training and testing data sets, the results acquired a high accuracy (99.1 percent), which is significantly superior to previous methods. Ahead-of-time detection and diagnosis of cardiac disease, as well as better treatment outcomes, are strong possibilities for the suggested prediction model. Additionally, it may help patients better manage their illness or life forms in order to increase their chances of recovery/survival. The result showed greater accuracy and promising signs that machine-learning algorithms can indeed assist in early identification of the disease and improvement of the treatment outcome.