Evaluation of the OECD QSAR toolbox automatic workflow for the prediction of the acute toxicity of organic chemicals to fathead minnow

Explainable machine learning models for predicting the acute toxicity of pesticides to sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus)

A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) study was conducted on 313 pesticides to predict their acute toxicity to Sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) by using DRAGON descriptors. Essentials accounting for a reliable model were all considered carefully, giving full consideration to the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) principles for QSAR acceptability in regulation during the model construction and assessment process. Nine variables were selected through the forward stepwise regression method and used as inputs to construct both linear and nonlinear models. The obtained models were validated internally and externally. Generally, machine learning-based methods, namely support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and projection pursuit regression (PPR), perform better than the multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The statistical results (R2 = 0.682-0.933, Q2LOO = 0.604-0.659, Q2F1 = 0.740-0.796, CCC = 0.861-0.882) of the developed models show that they are robust, reliable, reproducible, accurate and predictive. Comparatively, the RF model performs best, giving predictive correlation coefficient Q2 of 0.814, root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.658 and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.534 for the test set, respectively. The RF model (as well as SVM and PPR models) was visualized and explained by using the SHapley Additive explanation (SHAP) analysis to enhance its transparency and credibility. In addition, the applicability domain (AD) range of the RF model was characterized by the Williams plot and the tree manifold approximation and projection (TMAP) technology was utilized to illustrate similarity and diversity of the entire data space, to assist in the analysis of the outliers. Activity cliff detection was investigated by using Arithmetic Residuals in K-groups Analysis (ARKA) descriptors. It was found that none of the pesticides was identified as an activity cliff in the training set or a potential prediction cliff in the test set. Therefore, the RF model fulfills each OECD principle in regulation for QSAR models. The research in this work will aid in the in silico QSAR prediction of the acute toxicity to Sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) for untested and new toxic pesticides and can also be extended to other studies.

Combining QSAR and SSD to predict aquatic toxicity and species sensitivity of pyrethroid and organophosphate pesticides

The widespread use of pyrethroid and organophosphate pesticides necessitates accurate toxicity predictions for regulatory compliance. In this study QSAR and SSD models for six pyrethroid and four organophosphate compounds using QSAR Toolbox and SSD Toolbox have been developed. The QSAR models, described by the formula 48 h-EC50 or 96 h-LC50 = x + y * log Kow, were validated for predicting 48 h-EC50 values for acute Daphnia toxicity and 96 h-LC50 values for acute fish toxicity, meeting criteria of n ≥10, r2 ≥0.7, and Q2 >0.5. Predicted 48 h-EC50 values for pyrethroids ranged from 3.95 × 10-5 mg/L (permethrin) to 8.21 × 10-3 mg/L (fenpropathrin), and 96 h-LC50 values from 3.89 × 10-5 mg/L (permethrin) to 1.68 × 10-2 mg/L (metofluthrin). For organophosphates, 48 h-EC50 values ranged from 2.00 × 10-5 mg/L (carbophenothion) to 3.76 × 10-2 mg/L (crufomate) and 96 h-LC50 values from 3.81 × 10-3 mg/L (carbophenothion) to 12.3 mg/L (crufomate). These values show a good agreement with experimental data, though some, like Carbophenothion, overestimated toxicity. HC05 values, indicating hazardous concentrations for 5% of species, range from 0.029 to 0.061 µg/L for pyrethroids and 0.030 to 0.072 µg/L for organophosphates. These values aid in establishing environmental quality standards (EQS). Compared to existing EQS, HC05 values for pyrethroids were less conservative, while those for organophosphates were comparable.

The estimation of acute oral toxicity (LD50) of G-series organophosphorus-based chemical warfare agents using quantitative and qualitative toxicology in silico methods

The idea of this study was the estimation of the theoretical acute toxicity (t-LD50, rat, oral dose) of organophosphorus-based chemical warfare agents from the G-series (n = 12) using different in silico methods. Initially identified in Germany, the G-type nerve agents include potent compounds such as tabun, sarin, and soman. Despite their historical significance, there is a noticeable gap in acute toxicity data for these agents. This study employs qualitative (STopTox and AdmetSAR) and quantitative (TEST; CATMoS; ProTox-II and QSAR Toolbox) in silico methods to predict LD50 values, offering an ethical alternative to animal testing. Additionally, we conducted quantitative extrapolation from animals, and the results of qualitative tests confirmed the acute toxicity potential of these substances and enabled the identification of toxicophoric groups. According to our estimations, the most lethal agents within this category were GV, soman (GD), sarin (GB), thiosarin (GBS), and chlorosarin (GC), with t-LD50 values (oral administration, extrapolated from rat to human) of 0.05 mg/kg bw, 0.08 mg/kg bw, 0.12 mg/kg bw, 0.15 mg/kg bw, and 0.17 mg/kg bw, respectively. On the contrary, compounds with a cycloalkane attached to the phospho-oxygen linkage, specifically methyl cyclosarin and cyclosarin, were found to be the least toxic, with values of 2.28 mg/kg bw and 3.03 mg/kg bw. The findings aim to fill the knowledge gap regarding the acute toxicity of these agents, highlighting the need for modern toxicological methods that align with ethical considerations, next-generation risk assessment (NGRA) and the 3Rs (replacement, reduction and refinement) principles.

The acute toxicity of Novichok's degradation products using quantitative and qualitative toxicology in silico methods

The emergence of Novichok agents, potent organophosphorus nerve agents, has spurred the demand for advanced analytical methods and toxicity assessments as a result of their involvement in high-profile incidents. This study focuses on the degradation products of Novichok agents, particularly their potential toxic effects on biological systems. Traditional in vivo methods for toxicity evaluation face ethical and practical constraints, prompting a shift toward in silico toxicology research. In this context, we conducted a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative analysis of acute oral toxicity (AOT) for Novichok degradation products, using various in silico methods, including TEST, CATMoS, ProTox-II, ADMETlab, ACD/Labs Percepta, and QSAR Toolbox. Adopting these methodologies aligns with the 3Rs principle, emphasising Replacement, Reduction, and Refinement in the realm of toxicological studies. Qualitative assessments with STopTox and admetSAR revealed toxic profiles for all degradation products, with predicted toxicophores highlighting structural features responsible for toxicity. Quantitative predictions yielded varied estimates of acute oral toxicity, with the most toxic degradation products being EOPAA, MOPGA, MOPAA, MPGA, EOPGA, and MPAA, respectively. Structural modifications common to all examined hydrolytic degradation products involve substituting the fluorine atom with a hydroxyl group, imparting consequential effects on toxicity. The need for sophisticated analytical techniques for identifying and quantifying Novichok degradation products is underscored due to their inherent reactivity. This study represents a crucial step in unravelling the complexities of Novichok toxicity, highlighting the ongoing need for research into its degradation processes to refine analytical methodologies and fortify readiness against potential threats.

The prediction of hydrolysis and biodegradation of organophosphorus-based chemical warfare agents (G-series and V-series) using toxicology in silico methods

Nerve agents (G- and V-series) are a group of extremely toxic organophosphorus chemical warfare agents that we have had the opportunity to encounter many times on a massive scale (Matsumoto City, Tokyo subway and Gulf War). The threat of using nerve agents in terrorist attacks or military operations is still present, even with establishing the Chemical Weapons Convention as the legal framework. Understanding their environmental sustainability and health risks is critical to social security. Due to the risk of contact with dangerous nerve agents and animal welfare considerations, in silico methods were used to assess hydrolysis and biodegradation safely. The environmental fate of the examined nerve agents was elucidated using QSAR models. The results indicate that the investigated compounds released into the environment hydrolyse at a different rate, from extremely fast (<1 day) to very slow (over a year); V-agents undergo slower hydrolysis compared to G-agents. V-agents turned out to be relatively challenging to biodegrade, the ultimate biodegradation time frame of which was predicted as weeks to months, while for G-agents, the overwhelming majority was classified as weeks. In silico methods for predicting various parameters are critical to preparing for the forthcoming application of nerve agents.

The prediction of acute toxicity (LD50) for organophosphorus-based chemical warfare agents (V-series) using toxicology in silico methods

Nerve agents are organophosphate chemical warfare agents that exert their toxic effects by irreversibly inhibiting acetylcholinesterase, affecting the breakdown of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine in the synaptic cleft. Due to the risk of exposure to dangerous nerve agents and for animal welfare reasons, in silico methods have been used to assess acute toxicity safely. The next-generation risk assessment (NGRA) is a new approach for predicting toxicological parameters that can meet modern requirements for toxicological research. The present study explains the acute toxicity of the examined V-series nerve agents (n = 9) using QSAR models. Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (ver. 4.2.1 and ver. 5.1.2), QSAR Toolbox (ver. 4.6), and ProTox-II browser application were used to predict the median lethal dose. The Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry Specification (SMILES) was the input data source. The results indicate that the most deadly V-agents were VX and VM, followed by structural VX analogues: RVX and CVX. The least toxic turned out to be V-sub x and Substance 100A. In silico methods for predicting various parameters are crucial for filling data gaps ahead of experimental research and preparing for the upcoming use of nerve agents.

A critical review of effect modeling for ecological risk assessment of plant protection products

A wide diversity of plant protection products (PPP) is used for crop protection leading to the contamination of soil, water, and air, which can have ecotoxicological impacts on living organisms. It is inconceivable to study the effects of each compound on each species from each compartment, experimental studies being time consuming and cost prohibitive, and animal testing having to be avoided. Therefore, numerous models are developed to assess PPP ecotoxicological effects. Our objective was to provide an overview of the modeling approaches enabling the assessment of PPP effects (including biopesticides) on the biota. Six categories of models were inventoried: (Q)SAR, DR and TKTD, population, multi-species, landscape, and mixture models. They were developed for various species (terrestrial and aquatic vertebrates and invertebrates, primary producers, micro-organisms) belonging to diverse environmental compartments, to address different goals (e.g., species sensitivity or PPP bioaccumulation assessment, ecosystem services protection). Among them, mechanistic models are increasingly recognized by EFSA for PPP regulatory risk assessment but, to date, remain not considered in notified guidance documents. The strengths and limits of the reviewed models are discussed together with improvement avenues (multigenerational effects, multiple biotic and abiotic stressors). This review also underlines a lack of model testing by means of field data and of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Accurate and robust modeling of PPP effects and other stressors on living organisms, from their application in the field to their functional consequences on the ecosystems at different scales of time and space, would help going toward a more sustainable management of the environment. Graphical Abstract Combination of the keyword lists composing the first bibliographic query. Columns were joined together with the logical operator AND. All keyword lists are available in Supplementary Information at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5775038 (Larras et al. 2021).