Widespread reproductive variation in North American turtles: temperature, egg size and optimality

Climate effects on nesting phenology in Nebraska turtles

A frequent response of organisms to climate change is altering the timing of reproduction, and advancement of reproductive timing has been a common reaction to warming temperatures in temperate regions. We tested whether this pattern applied to two common North American turtle species over the past three decades in Nebraska, USA. The timing of nesting (either first date or average date) of the Common Snapping Turtle (Chelydra serpentina) was negatively correlated with mean December maximum temperatures of the preceding year and mean May minimum and maximum temperatures in the nesting year and positively correlated with precipitation in July of the previous year. Increased temperatures during the late winter and spring likely permit earlier emergence from hibernation, increased metabolic rates and feeding opportunities, and accelerated vitellogenesis, ovulation, and egg shelling, all of which could drive earlier nesting. However, for the Painted Turtle (Chrysemys picta), the timing of nesting was positively correlated with mean minimum temperatures in September, October, December of the previous year, February of the nesting year, and April precipitation. These results suggest warmer fall, and winter temperature may impose an increased metabolic cost to painted turtles that impedes fall vitellogenesis, and April rains may slow the completion of vitellogenesis through decreased basking opportunities. For both species, nest deposition was highly correlated with body size, and larger females nested earlier in the season. Although average annual ambient temperatures have increased over the last four decades of our overall fieldwork at our study site, spring temperatures have not yet increased, and hence, nesting phenology has not advanced at our site for Chelydra. While Chrysemys exhibited a weak trend toward later nesting, this response was likely due to increased recruitment of smaller females into the population due to nest protection and predator control (Procyon lotor) in the early 2000s. Should climate change result in an increase in spring temperatures, nesting phenology would presumably respond accordingly, conditional on body size variation within these populations.

Understanding reproductive allometry in turtles: A slippery "slope"

Measures of reproductive output in turtles are generally positively correlated with female body size. However, a full understanding of reproductive allometry in turtles requires logarithmic transformation of reproductive and body size variables prior to regression analyses. This allows for slope comparisons with expected linear or cubic relationships for linear to linear and linear to volumetric variables, respectively. We compiled scaling data using this approach from published and unpublished turtle studies (46 populations of 25 species from eight families) to quantify patterns among taxa. Our results suggest that for log-log comparisons of clutch size, egg width, egg mass, clutch mass, and pelvic aperture width to shell length, all scale hypoallometrically despite theoretical predictions of isometry. Clutch size generally scaled at ~1.7 to 2.0 (compared to an isometric expectation of 3.0), egg width at ~0.5 (compared to an expectation of 1.0), egg mass at ~1.1 to 1.3 (3.0), clutch mass at ~2.5 to 2.8 (3.0), and pelvic aperture width at 0.8-0.9 (1.0). We also found preliminary evidence that scaling may differ across years and clutches even in the same population, as well as across populations of the same species. Future investigators should aspire to collect data on all these reproductive parameters and to report log-log allometric analyses to test our preliminary conclusions regarding reproductive allometry in turtles.

A Review of the Effects of Climate Change on Chelonians

Climate change is occurring at an unprecedented rate and has begun to modify the distribution and phenology of organisms worldwide. Chelonians are expected to be particularly vulnerable due to limited dispersal capabilities as well as widespread temperature-dependent sex determination. The number of papers published about the effects of climate change on turtles has increased exponentially over the last decade; here, I review the data from peer-reviewed publications to assess the likely impacts of climate change on individuals, populations, and communities. Based upon these studies future research should focus on: (1) Individual responses to climate change, particularly with respect to thermal biology, phenology, and microhabitat selection; (2) improving species distribution models by incorporating fine-scale environmental variables as well as physiological processes; (3) identifying the consequences of skewed sex ratios; and (4) assessments of community resilience and the development of methods to mitigate climate change impacts. Although detailed management recommendations are not possible at this point, careful consideration should be given regarding how to manage low vagility species as habitats shift poleward. In the worst-case scenario, proactive management may be required in order to ensure that widespread losses do not occur.

Altered spring phenology of North American freshwater turtles and the importance of representative populations

Globally, populations of diverse taxa have altered phenology in response to climate change. However, most research has focused on a single population of a given taxon, which may be unrepresentative for comparative analyses, and few long-term studies of phenology in ectothermic amniotes have been published. We test for climate-altered phenology using long-term studies (10-36 years) of nesting behavior in 14 populations representing six genera of freshwater turtles (Chelydra, Chrysemys, Kinosternon, Malaclemys, Sternotherus, and Trachemys). Nesting season initiation occurs earlier in more recent years, with 11 of the populations advancing phenology. The onset of nesting for nearly all populations correlated well with temperatures during the month preceding nesting. Still, certain populations of some species have not advanced phenology as might be expected from global patterns of climate change. This collection of findings suggests a proximate link between local climate and reproduction that is potentially caused by variation in spring emergence from hibernation, ability to process food, and thermoregulatory opportunities prior to nesting. However, even though all species had populations with at least some evidence of phenological advancement, geographic variation in phenology within and among turtle species underscores the critical importance of representative data for accurate comprehensive assessments of the biotic impacts of climate change.

A new method of estimating thermal performance of embryonic development rate yields accurate prediction of embryonic age in wild reptile nests

Temperature has a strong effect on ectotherm development rate. It is therefore possible to construct predictive models of development that rely solely on temperature, which have applications in a range of biological fields. Here, we leverage a reference series of development stages for embryos of the turtle Chelydra serpentina, which was described at a constant temperature of 20 °C. The reference series acts to map each distinct developmental stage onto embryonic age (in days) at 20 °C. By extension, an embryo taken from any given incubation environment, once staged, can be assigned an equivalent age at 20 °C. We call this concept "Equivalent Development", as it maps the development stage of an embryo incubated at a given temperature to its equivalent age at a reference temperature. In the laboratory, we used the concept of Equivalent Development to estimate development rate of embryos of C. serpentina across a series of constant temperatures. Using these estimates of development rate, we created a thermal performance curve measured in units of Equivalent Development (TPC_ED). We then used the TPC_ED to predict developmental stage of embryos in several natural turtle nests across six years. We found that 85% of the variation of development stage in natural nests could be explained. Further, we compared the predictive accuracy of the model based on the TPC_ED to the predictive accuracy of a degree-day model, where development is assumed to be linearly related to temperature and the amount of accumulated heat is summed over time. Information theory suggested that the model based on the TPC_ED better describes variation in developmental stage in wild nests than the degree-day model. We suggest the concept of Equivalent Development has several strengths and can be broadly applied. In particular, studies on temperature-dependent sex determination may be facilitated by the concept of Equivalent Development, as development age maps directly onto the developmental series of the organism, allowing critical periods of sex determination to be delineated without invasive sampling, even under fluctuating temperature.

The effects of climate on annual variation in reproductive output in Snapping Turtles (Chelydra serpentina)

Reptiles are highly dependent on climatic patterns to regulate their behavior and physiology, and studies of the effects of climate on the biology of organisms are increasingly important given expected climate change. Our study examined the effects of climate variation over 15 of the 26 years between 1990 and 2015 on the reproductive output of the Snapping Turtle (Chelydra serpentina (Linnaeus, 1758)). Egg mass, clutch size, and clutch mass (relative to body size) were significantly higher in years following warmer temperatures in September and October of the year before reproduction, but not related to temperatures in April and May just before reproduction. Of the above life-history traits, egg mass varied the least across years, and after warm autumns small turtles (225–285 mm carapace length) increased clutch mass by increasing clutch size but not egg mass. In contrast, under the same conditions, large turtles increased clutch mass by increasing egg mass but not clutch size. Our data suggest optimal egg mass may vary with female size. Climate change may already have impacted reproductive output in Snapping Turtles at the site because temperatures during September and October have increased about 0.5 °C each decade for the last 45 years.

Effects of life-history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life-history traits essential for species' persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species' potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species' survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species' predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg-incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species' range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species' ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species' distributions.

Phenotypic plasticity of nest timing in a post-glacial landscape: how do reptiles adapt to seasonal time constraints?

Life histories evolve in response to constraints on the time available for growth and development. Nesting date and its plasticity in response to spring temperature may therefore be important components of fitness in oviparous ectotherms near their northern range limit, as reproducing early provides more time for embryos to complete development before winter. We used data collected over several decades to compare air temperature and nest date plasticity in populations of painted turtles and snapping turtles from a relatively warm environment (southeastern Michigan) near the southern extent of the last glacial maximum to a relatively cool environment (central Ontario) near the northern extent of post-glacial recolonization. For painted turtles, population-level differences in reaction norm elevation for two phenological traits were consistent with adaptation to time constraints, but no differences in reaction norm slopes were observed. For snapping turtle populations, the difference in reaction norm elevation for a single phenological trait was in the opposite direction of what was expected under adaptation to time constraints, and no difference in reaction norm slope was observed. Finally, among-individual variation in individual plasticity for nesting date was detected only in the northern population of snapping turtles, suggesting that reaction norms are less canalized in this northern population. Overall, we observed evidence of phenological adaptation, and possibly maladaptation, to time constraints in long-lived reptiles. Where present, (mal)adaptation occurred by virtue of differences in reaction norm elevation, not reaction norm slope. Glacial history, generation time, and genetic constraint may all play an important role in the evolution of phenological timing and its plasticity in long-lived reptiles.

The positive correlation between maternal size and offspring size: fitting pieces of a life-history puzzle

The evolution of investment per offspring (I) is often viewed through the lens of the classic theory, in which variation among individuals in a population is not expected. A substantial departure from this prediction arises in the form of correlations between maternal body size and I, which are observed within populations in virtually all taxonomic groups. Based on the generality of this observation, we suggest it is caused by a common underlying mechanism. We pursue a unifying explanation for this pattern by reviewing all theoretical models that attempt to explain it. We assess the generality of the mechanism upon which each model is based, and the extent to which data support its predictions. Two classes of adaptive models are identified: models that assume that the correlation arises from maternal influences on the relationship between I and offspring fitness [w(I)], and those that assume that maternal size influences the relationship between I and maternal fitness [W(I)]. The weight of evidence suggests that maternal influences on w(I) are probably not very general, and even for taxa where maternal influences on w(I) are likely, experiments fail to support model predictions. Models that assume that W(I) varies with maternal size appear to offer more generality, but the current challenge is to identify a specific and general mechanism upon which W(I) varies predictably with maternal size. Recent theory suggests the exciting possibility that a yet unknown mechanism modifies the offspring size-number trade-off function in a manner that is predictable with respect to maternal size, such that W(I) varies with size. We identify two promising avenues of inquiry. First, the trade-off might be modified by energetic costs that are associated with the initiation of reproduction ('overhead costs') and that scale with I, and future work could investigate what specific overhead costs are generally associated with reproduction and whether these costs scale with I. Second, the trade-off might be modified by virtue of condition-dependent offspring provisioning coupled with metabolic factors, and future work could investigate the proximate cause of, and generality of, condition-dependent offspring provisioning. Finally, drawing on the existing literature, we suggest that maternal size per se is not causatively related to variation in I, and the mechanism involved in the correlation is instead linked to maternal nutritional status or maternal condition, which is usually correlated with maternal size. Using manipulative experiments to elucidate why females with high nutritional status typically produce large offspring might help explain what specific mechanism underlies the maternal-size correlation.

Recurrent violations of invariant rules for offspring size: evidence from turtles and the implications for small clutch size models

Smith and Fretwell's classic model predicts that parents can maximize fitness by dividing the energy available for reproduction into offspring of an optimal size. However, this model breaks down when clutch size is small (~1-10 offspring). Invariant rules are an extension of the Smith-Fretwell model, and these rules predict how offspring size will vary among and within individuals that produce small clutch sizes. Here, we provide a narrow test of invariant rules using three turtle species, then we synthesize and re-analyze existing data from 18 different species (comprising five Orders) to evaluate whether invariant rules are followed across broad taxa. We do not find support for most invariant rules in turtles, and our re-analysis demonstrates a general mismatch between observed and expected values across all taxa evaluated, suggesting that invariant rules fail to predict reproductive patterns in nature. Morphological constraints on offspring size and reproductive effort may be important reasons for disparities between theory and observation both in turtles and other taxa. Paradoxically, morphological constraints are most common in small-bodied species and individuals, but these same candidates are also those which produce the small clutch sizes that are necessary to test invariant rules, such that a fair test of invariant rules will often be challenging. Mismatches between theory and observation might also occur because theory assumes that mothers exert control over resource allocation to offspring. In fact, there is evidence of widespread genetic correlations among investment per offspring and reproductive effort, such that these traits are not independent.