Progress of a half century in the study of the Luria-Delbrück distribution

Criticality in the Luria-Delbrück Model with an Arbitrary Mutation Rate

The Luria-Delbrück model is a classic model of population dynamics with random mutations, that has been used historically to prove that random mutations drive evolution. In typical scenarios, the relevant mutation rate is exceedingly small, and mutants are counted only at the final time point. Here, inspired by recent experiments on DNA repair, we study a mathematical model that is formally equivalent to the Luria-Delbrück setup, with the repair rate p playing the role of mutation rate, albeit taking on large values, of order unity per cell division. We find that although at large times the fraction of repaired cells approaches one, the variance of the number of repaired cells undergoes a phase transition: when p>1/2 the variance decreases with time, but, intriguingly, for p<1/2 even though the fraction of repaired cells approaches 1, the variance in the number of repaired cells increases with time. Analyzing DNA-repair experiments, we find that in order to explain the data the model should also take into account the probability of a successful repair process once it is initiated. Taken together, our work shows how the study of variability can lead to surprising phase transitions as well as provide biological insights into the process of DNA repair.

Methods for two nonstandard problems arising from the Luria-Delbrück experiment

The fluctuation experiment, devised by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, remains the method of choice for measuring microbial mutation rates in the laboratory. While most inference problems commonly encountered in a fluctuation experiment can be tackled by existing standard algorithms, investigators from time to time run into nonstandard problems not amenable to any existing algorithms. A major obstacle to solving these nonstandard problems is the construction of confidence intervals for mutation rates. This note describes methods for two important categories of nonstandard problems, namely, pooling data from separate experiments and analyzing grouped mutant count data, focusing on the construction of likelihood ratio confidence intervals. In addition to illustrative examples using real-world data, simulation results are presented to help assess the proposed methods.

Cell population growth kinetics in the presence of stochastic heterogeneity of cell phenotype

Recent studies at individual cell resolution have revealed phenotypic heterogeneity in nominally clonal tumor cell populations. The heterogeneity affects cell growth behaviors, which can result in departure from the idealized uniform exponential growth of the cell population. Here we measured the stochastic time courses of growth of an ensemble of populations of HL60 leukemia cells in cultures, starting with distinct initial cell numbers to capture a departure from the uniform exponential growth model for the initial growth ("take-off"). Despite being derived from the same cell clone, we observed significant variations in the early growth patterns of individual cultures with statistically significant differences in growth dynamics, which could be explained by the presence of inter-converting subpopulations with different growth rates, and which could last for many generations. Based on the hypothesis of existence of multiple subpopulations, we developed a branching process model that was consistent with the experimental observations.

Sequential mutations in exponentially growing populations

Stochastic models of sequential mutation acquisition are widely used to quantify cancer and bacterial evolution. Across manifold scenarios, recurrent research questions are: how many cells are there with n alterations, and how long will it take for these cells to appear. For exponentially growing populations, these questions have been tackled only in special cases so far. Here, within a multitype branching process framework, we consider a general mutational path where mutations may be advantageous, neutral or deleterious. In the biologically relevant limiting regimes of large times and small mutation rates, we derive probability distributions for the number, and arrival time, of cells with n mutations. Surprisingly, the two quantities respectively follow Mittag-Leffler and logistic distributions regardless of n or the mutations' selective effects. Our results provide a rapid method to assess how altering the fundamental division, death, and mutation rates impacts the arrival time, and number, of mutant cells. We highlight consequences for mutation rate inference in fluctuation assays.

Mutators can drive the evolution of multi-resistance to antibiotics

Antibiotic combination therapies are an approach used to counter the evolution of resistance; their purported benefit is they can stop the successive emergence of independent resistance mutations in the same genome. Here, we show that bacterial populations with 'mutators', organisms with defects in DNA repair, readily evolve resistance to combination antibiotic treatment when there is a delay in reaching inhibitory concentrations of antibiotic-under conditions where purely wild-type populations cannot. In populations of Escherichia coli subjected to combination treatment, we detected a diverse array of acquired mutations, including multiple alleles in the canonical targets of resistance for the two drugs, as well as mutations in multi-drug efflux pumps and genes involved in DNA replication and repair. Unexpectedly, mutators not only allowed multi-resistance to evolve under combination treatment where it was favoured, but also under single-drug treatments. Using simulations, we show that the increase in mutation rate of the two canonical resistance targets is sufficient to permit multi-resistance evolution in both single-drug and combination treatments. Under both conditions, the mutator allele swept to fixation through hitch-hiking with single-drug resistance, enabling subsequent resistance mutations to emerge. Ultimately, our results suggest that mutators may hinder the utility of combination therapy when mutators are present. Additionally, by raising the rates of genetic mutation, selection for multi-resistance may have the unwanted side-effect of increasing the potential to evolve resistance to future antibiotic treatments.

Efficient, robust, and versatile fluctuation data analysis using MLE MUtation Rate calculator (mlemur)

The fluctuation assay remains an important tool for analyzing the levels of mutagenesis in microbial populations. The mutant counts originating from some average number of mutations are usually assumed to obey the Luria-Delbrück distribution. While several tools for estimating mutation rates are available, they sometimes lack accuracy or versatility under non-standard conditions. In this work, extensions to the Luria-Delbrück protocol to account for phenotypic lag and cellular death with either perfect or partial plating were developed. Hence, the novel MLE MUtation Rate calculator, or mlemur, is the first tool that provides a user-friendly graphical interface allowing the researchers to model their data with consideration for partial plating, differential growth of mutants and non-mutants, phenotypic lag, cellular death, variability of the final number of cells, post-exponential-phase mutations, and the size of the inoculum. Additionally, mlemur allows the users to incorporate most of these special conditions at the same time to obtain highly accurate estimates of mutation rates and P values, confidence intervals for an arbitrary function of data (such as fold), and perform power analysis and sample size determination for the likelihood ratio test. The accuracy of point and interval estimates produced by mlemur against historical and simulated fluctuation experiments are assessed. Both mlemur and the analyses in this work might be of great help when evaluating fluctuation experiments and increase the awareness of the limitations of the widely-used Lea-Coulson formulation of the Luria-Delbrück distribution in the more realistic biological contexts.

Cell Population Growth Kinetics in the Presence of Stochastic Heterogeneity of Cell Phenotype

Recent studies at individual cell resolution have revealed phenotypic heterogeneity in nominally clonal tumor cell populations. The heterogeneity affects cell growth behaviors, which can result in departure from the idealized exponential growth. Here we measured the stochastic time courses of growth of an ensemble of populations of HL60 leukemia cells in cultures, starting with distinct initial cell numbers to capture the departure from the exponential growth model in the initial growth phase. Despite being derived from the same cell clone, we observed significant variations in the early growth patterns of individual cultures with statistically significant differences in growth kinetics and the presence of subpopulations with different growth rates that endured for many generations. Based on the hypothesis of existence of multiple inter-converting subpopulations, we developed a branching process model that captures the experimental observations.

Probing transient memory of cellular states using single-cell lineages

The inherent stochasticity in the gene product levels can drive single cells within an isoclonal population to different phenotypic states. The dynamic nature of this intercellular variation, where individual cells can transition between different states over time, makes it a particularly hard phenomenon to characterize. We reviewed recent progress in leveraging the classical Luria-Delbrück experiment to infer the transient heritability of the cellular states. Similar to the original experiment, individual cells were first grown into cell colonies, and then, the fraction of cells residing in different states was assayed for each colony. We discuss modeling approaches for capturing dynamic state transitions in a growing cell population and highlight formulas that identify the kinetics of state switching from the extent of colony-to-colony fluctuations. The utility of this method in identifying multi-generational memory of the both expression and phenotypic states is illustrated across diverse biological systems from cancer drug resistance, reactivation of human viruses, and cellular immune responses. In summary, this fluctuation-based methodology provides a powerful approach for elucidating cell-state transitions from a single time point measurement, which is particularly relevant in situations where measurements lead to cell death (as in single-cell RNA-seq or drug treatment) or cause an irreversible change in cell physiology.

Determination of Mutation Rates with Two Symmetric and Asymmetric Mutation Types

We revisit our earlier paper, with two of the coauthors, in which we proposed an unbiased and consistent estimator μ^n for an unknown mutation rate μ of microorganisms. Previously, we proved that the associated sequence of estimators μ^n converges to μ almost surely pointwise on a nonextinct set Ω0. Here, we show that this sequence converges also in the mean square with respect to conditional probability measure P0·=P·∩Ω0/PΩ0 and that, with respect to P0, the estimator is asymptotically unbiased. We further assume that a microorganism can mutate or turn to a different variant of one of the two types. In particular, it can mean that bacteria under attack by a virus or chemical agent are either perishing or surviving, turning them to stronger variant. We propose estimators for their respective types and show that they are a.s. pointwise and L2-consistent and asymptotically unbiased with respect to measure P0.

Laws of Spatially Structured Population Dynamics on a Lattice

We consider spatial population dynamics on a lattice, following a type of a contact (birth–death) stochastic process. We show that simple mathematical approximations for the density of cells can be obtained in a variety of scenarios. In the case of a homogeneous cell population, we derive the cellular density for a two-dimensional (2D) spatial lattice with an arbitrary number of neighbors, including the von Neumann, Moore, and hexagonal lattice.are not allowed in the abstract, please move them to the main text, please remember to check the order of references in the full text after revision. We then turn our attention to evolutionary dynamics, where mutant cells of different properties can be generated. For disadvantageous mutants, we derive an approximation for the equilibrium density representing the selection–mutation balance. For neutral and advantageous mutants, we show that simple scaling (power) laws for the numbers of mutants in expanding populations hold in 2D and 3D, under both flat (planar) and range population expansion. These models have relevance for studies in ecology and evolutionary biology, as well as biomedical applications including the dynamics of drug-resistant mutants in cancer and bacterial biofilms.

The number of neutral mutants in an expanding Luria-Delbrück population is approximately Fréchet

Background: A growing population of cells accumulates mutations. A single mutation early in the growth process carries forward to all descendant cells, causing the final population to have a lot of mutant cells. When the first mutation happens later in growth, the final population typically has fewer mutants. The number of mutant cells in the final population follows the Luria-Delbrück distribution. The mathematical form of the distribution is known only from its probability generating function. For larger populations of cells, one typically uses computer simulations to estimate the distribution. Methods: This article searches for a simple approximation of the Luria-Delbrück distribution, with an explicit mathematical form that can be used easily in calculations. Results: The Fréchet distribution provides a good approximation for the Luria-Delbrück distribution for neutral mutations, which do not cause a growth rate change relative to the original cells. Conclusions: The Fréchet distribution apparently provides a good match through its description of extreme value problems for multiplicative processes such as exponential growth.

New approaches to mutation rate fold change in Luria-Delbrück fluctuation experiments

For nearly eight decades the Luria-Delbrück protocol remains the preferred method for experimentally determining microbial mutation rates. However, earnest development and rigorous applications of statistical methods for mutation rate comparison using fluctuation assay data are a relatively recent phenomenon. While likelihood ratio tests tailored for the fluctuation protocol give investigators appropriate tools, researchers sometimes may prefer to view the comparison of two mutation rates through the lens of the ratio of the two mutation rates. The idea of using the bootstrap technique to construct intervals for mutation rate fold change was proposed nearly a decade ago, but it failed to gain traction partly due to a failure to incorporate likelihood-based estimation. In addition to extending the bootstrap method, this paper proposes two new methods of constructing intervals for mutation rate fold change: a profile likelihood method and a Bayesian method utilizing Monte Carlo Markov chain. All three methods are assessed by large-scale simulations.

Mutant Evolution in Spatially Structured and Fragmented Expanding Populations

Mutant evolution in spatially structured systems is important for a range of biological systems, but aspects of it still require further elucidation. Adding to previous work, we provide a simple derivation of growth laws that characterize the number of mutants of different relative fitness in expanding populations in spatial models of different dimensionalities. These laws are universal and independent of "microscopic" modeling details. We further study the accumulation of mutants and find that, with advantageous and neutral mutants, more of them are present in spatially structured, compared to well-mixed colonies of the same size. The behavior of disadvantageous mutants is subtle: if they are disadvantageous through a reduction in division rates, the result is the same, and it is the opposite if the disadvantage is due to a death rate increase. Finally, we show that in all cases, the same results are observed in fragmented, nonspatial patch models. This suggests that the patterns observed are the consequence of population fragmentation, and not spatial restrictions per se We provide an intuitive explanation for the complex dependence of disadvantageous mutant evolution on spatial restriction, which relies on desynchronized dynamics in different locations/patches, and plays out differently depending on whether the disadvantage is due to a lower division rate or a higher death rate. Implications for specific biological systems, such as the evolution of drug-resistant cell mutants in cancer or bacterial biofilms, are discussed.

Phenotypic delay in the evolution of bacterial antibiotic resistance: Mechanistic models and their implications

Phenotypic delay-the time delay between genetic mutation and expression of the corresponding phenotype-is generally neglected in evolutionary models, yet recent work suggests that it may be more common than previously assumed. Here, we use computer simulations and theory to investigate the significance of phenotypic delay for the evolution of bacterial resistance to antibiotics. We consider three mechanisms which could potentially cause phenotypic delay: effective polyploidy, dilution of antibiotic-sensitive molecules and accumulation of resistance-enhancing molecules. We find that the accumulation of resistant molecules is relevant only within a narrow parameter range, but both the dilution of sensitive molecules and effective polyploidy can cause phenotypic delay over a wide range of parameters. We further investigate whether these mechanisms could affect population survival under drug treatment and thereby explain observed discrepancies in mutation rates estimated by Luria-Delbrück fluctuation tests. While the effective polyploidy mechanism does not affect population survival, the dilution of sensitive molecules leads both to decreased probability of survival under drug treatment and underestimation of mutation rates in fluctuation tests. The dilution mechanism also changes the shape of the Luria-Delbrück distribution of mutant numbers, and we show that this modified distribution provides an improved fit to previously published experimental data.

The mutational landscape of quinolone resistance in Escherichia coli

The evolution of antibiotic resistance is influenced by a variety of factors, including the availability of resistance mutations, and the pleiotropic effects of such mutations. Here, we isolate and characterize chromosomal quinolone resistance mutations in E. coli, in order to gain a systematic understanding of the rate and consequences of resistance to this important class of drugs. We isolated over fifty spontaneous resistance mutants on nalidixic acid, ciprofloxacin, and levofloxacin. This set of mutants includes known resistance mutations in gyrA, gyrB, and marR, as well as two novel gyrB mutations. We find that, for most mutations, resistance tends to be higher to nalidixic acid than relative to the other two drugs. Resistance mutations had deleterious impacts on one or more growth parameters, suggesting that quinolone resistance mutations are generally costly. Our findings suggest that the prevalence of specific gyrA alleles amongst clinical isolates are driven by high levels of resistance, at no more cost than other resistance alleles.

Measuring Clonal Evolution in Cancer with Genomics

Cancers originate from somatic cells in the human body that have accumulated genetic alterations. These mutations modify the phenotype of the cells, allowing them to escape the homeostatic regulation that maintains normal cell number. Viewed through the lens of evolutionary biology, the transformation of normal cells into malignant cells is evolution in action. Evolution continues throughout cancer growth, progression, treatment resistance, and disease relapse, driven by adaptation to changes in the cancer's environment, and intratumor heterogeneity is an inevitable consequence of this evolutionary process. Genomics provides a powerful means to characterize tumor evolution, enabling quantitative measurement of evolving clones across space and time. In this review, we discuss concepts and approaches to quantify and measure this evolutionary process in cancer using genomics.

Minimal functional driver gene heterogeneity among untreated metastases

Metastases are responsible for the majority of cancer-related deaths. Although genomic heterogeneity within primary tumors is associated with relapse, heterogeneity among treatment-naïve metastases has not been comprehensively assessed. We analyzed sequencing data for 76 untreated metastases from 20 patients and inferred cancer phylogenies for breast, colorectal, endometrial, gastric, lung, melanoma, pancreatic, and prostate cancers. We found that within individual patients, a large majority of driver gene mutations are common to all metastases. Further analysis revealed that the driver gene mutations that were not shared by all metastases are unlikely to have functional consequences. A mathematical model of tumor evolution and metastasis formation provides an explanation for the observed driver gene homogeneity. Thus, single biopsies capture most of the functionally important mutations in metastases and therefore provide essential information for therapeutic decision-making.

Fluctuation analysis on mutation models with birth-date dependence

The classic Luria-Delbrück model can be interpreted as a Poisson compound (number of mutations) of exponential mixtures (developing time of mutant clones) of geometric distributions (size of a clone in a given time). This "three-ingredients" approach is generalized in this paper to the case where the split instant distributions of cells are not i.i.d. : the lifetime of each cell is assumed to depend on its birth date. This model takes also into account cell deaths and non-exponentially distributed lifetimes. Previous results on the convergence of the distribution of mutant counts are recovered. The particular case where the instantaneous division rates of normal and mutant cells are proportional is studied. The classic Luria-Delbrück and Haldane models are recovered. Probability computations and simulation algorithms are provided. Robust estimation methods developed for the classic mutation models are adapted to the new model: their properties of consistency and asymptotic normality remain true; their asymptotic variances are computed. Finally, the estimation biases induced by considering classic mutation models instead of an inhomogeneous model are studied with simulation experiments.

Effective polyploidy causes phenotypic delay and influences bacterial evolvability

Whether mutations in bacteria exhibit a noticeable delay before expressing their corresponding mutant phenotype was discussed intensively in the 1940s to 1950s, but the discussion eventually waned for lack of supportive evidence and perceived incompatibility with observed mutant distributions in fluctuation tests. Phenotypic delay in bacteria is widely assumed to be negligible, despite the lack of direct evidence. Here, we revisited the question using recombineering to introduce antibiotic resistance mutations into E. coli at defined time points and then tracking expression of the corresponding mutant phenotype over time. Contrary to previous assumptions, we found a substantial median phenotypic delay of three to four generations. We provided evidence that the primary source of this delay is multifork replication causing cells to be effectively polyploid, whereby wild-type gene copies transiently mask the phenotype of recessive mutant gene copies in the same cell. Using modeling and simulation methods, we explored the consequences of effective polyploidy for mutation rate estimation by fluctuation tests and sequencing-based methods. For recessive mutations, despite the substantial phenotypic delay, the per-copy or per-genome mutation rate is accurately estimated. However, the per-cell rate cannot be estimated by existing methods. Finally, with a mathematical model, we showed that effective polyploidy increases the frequency of costly recessive mutations in the standing genetic variation (SGV), and thus their potential contribution to evolutionary adaptation, while drastically reducing the chance that de novo recessive mutations can rescue populations facing a harsh environmental change such as antibiotic treatment. Overall, we have identified phenotypic delay and effective polyploidy as previously overlooked but essential components in bacterial evolvability, including antibiotic resistance evolution.

What is the time delay between the occurrence of a genetic mutation in a bacterial cell and manifestation of its phenotypic effect? We show that antibiotic resistance mutations in Escherichia coli show a remarkably long phenotypic delay of three to four bacterial generations. The primary underlying mechanism of this delay is effective polyploidy. If a mutation arises on one of the multiple chromosomes in a polyploid cell, the presence of nonmutated, wild-type gene copies on other chromosomes may mask the phenotype of the mutation. We show here that mutation rate estimation needs to consider polyploidy, which influences the potential for bacterial adaptation. The fact that a new mutation may become useful only in the “great-great-grandchildren” suggests that preexisting mutations are more important for surviving sudden environmental catastrophes.

General solution of the chemical master equation and modality of marginal distributions for hierarchic first-order reaction networks

Multimodality is a phenomenon which complicates the analysis of statistical data based exclusively on mean and variance. Here, we present criteria for multimodality in hierarchic first-order reaction networks, consisting of catalytic and splitting reactions. Those networks are characterized by independent and dependent subnetworks. First, we prove the general solvability of the Chemical Master Equation (CME) for this type of reaction network and thereby extend the class of solvable CME’s. Our general solution is analytical in the sense that it allows for a detailed analysis of its statistical properties. Given Poisson/deterministic initial conditions, we then prove the independent species to be Poisson/binomially distributed, while the dependent species exhibit generalized Poisson/Khatri Type B distributions. Generalized Poisson/Khatri Type B distributions are multimodal for an appropriate choice of parameters. We illustrate our criteria for multimodality by several basic models, as well as the well-known two-stage transcription–translation network and Bateman’s model from nuclear physics. For both examples, multimodality was previously not reported.

Luria-Delbrück, revisited: the classic experiment does not rule out Lamarckian evolution

We re-examined data from the classic Luria-Delbrück fluctuation experiment, which is often credited with establishing a Darwinian basis for evolution. We argue that, for the Lamarckian model of evolution to be ruled out by the experiment, the experiment must favor pure Darwinian evolution over both the Lamarckian model and a model that allows both Darwinian and Lamarckian mechanisms (as would happen for bacteria with CRISPR-Cas immunity). Analysis of the combined model was not performed in the original 1943 paper. The Luria-Delbrück paper also did not consider the possibility of neither model fitting the experiment. Using Bayesian model selection, we find that the Luria-Delbrück experiment, indeed, favors the Darwinian evolution over purely Lamarckian. However, our analysis does not rule out the combined model, and hence cannot rule out Lamarckian contributions to the evolutionary dynamics.

Universal Asymptotic Clone Size Distribution for General Population Growth

Deterministically growing (wild-type) populations which seed stochastically developing mutant clones have found an expanding number of applications from microbial populations to cancer. The special case of exponential wild-type population growth, usually termed the Luria–Delbrück or Lea–Coulson model, is often assumed but seldom realistic. In this article, we generalise this model to different types of wild-type population growth, with mutants evolving as a birth–death branching process. Our focus is on the size distribution of clones—that is the number of progeny of a founder mutant—which can be mapped to the total number of mutants. Exact expressions are derived for exponential, power-law and logistic population growth. Additionally, for a large class of population growth, we prove that the long-time limit of the clone size distribution has a general two-parameter form, whose tail decays as a power-law. Considering metastases in cancer as the mutant clones, upon analysing a data-set of their size distribution, we indeed find that a power-law tail is more likely than an exponential one.

Determinants of Genetic Diversity of Spontaneous Drug Resistance in Bacteria

Any pathogen population sufficiently large is expected to harbor spontaneous drug-resistant mutants, often responsible for disease relapse after antibiotic therapy. It is seldom appreciated, however, that while larger populations harbor more mutants, the abundance distribution of these mutants is expected to be markedly uneven. This is because a larger population size allows early mutants to expand for longer, exacerbating their predominance in the final mutant subpopulation. Here, we investigate the extent to which this reduction in evenness can constrain the genetic diversity of spontaneous drug resistance in bacteria. Combining theory and experiments, we show that even small variations in growth rate between resistant mutants and the wild type result in orders-of-magnitude differences in genetic diversity. Indeed, only a slight fitness advantage for the mutant is enough to keep diversity low and independent of population size. These results have important clinical implications. Genetic diversity at antibiotic resistance loci can determine a population's capacity to cope with future challenges (i.e., second-line therapy). We thus revealed an unanticipated way in which the fitness effects of antibiotic resistance can affect the evolvability of pathogens surviving a drug-induced bottleneck. This insight will assist in the fight against multidrug-resistant microbes, as well as contribute to theories aimed at predicting cancer evolution.

Modeling Tumor Clonal Evolution for Drug Combinations Design

Cancer is a clonal evolutionary process. This presents challenges for effective therapeutic intervention, given the constant selective pressure towards drug resistance. Mathematical modeling from population genetics, evolutionary dynamics, and engineering perspectives are being increasingly employed to study tumor progression, intratumoral heterogeneity, drug resistance, and rational drug scheduling and combinations design. In this review, we discuss promising opportunities these inter-disciplinary approaches hold for advances in cancer biology and treatment. We propose that quantitative modeling perspectives can complement emerging experimental technologies to facilitate enhanced understanding of disease progression and improved capabilities for therapeutic drug regimen designs.

A new practical guide to the Luria-Delbrück protocol

Since 2000 several review papers have been published about the analysis of experimental data obtained using the Luria-Delbrück protocol. These timely papers cleared much of the confusion surrounding various methods for estimating or comparing mutation rates. As a result, today the fluctuation test is more widely applied with much improved accuracy. The present paper provides guidelines on a few remaining problems that continue to baffle mutation researchers. Among the issues addressed are incomplete plating, relative fitness, and comparison of experiments where average final cell population sizes differ. It also offers a fresh view on the estimation methods that are based on the sample median.

Closed-form stochastic solutions for non-equilibrium dynamics and inheritance of cellular components over many cell divisions

Stochastic dynamics govern many important processes in cellular biology, and an underlying theoretical approach describing these dynamics is desirable to address a wealth of questions in biology and medicine. Mathematical tools exist for treating several important examples of these stochastic processes, most notably gene expression and random partitioning at single-cell divisions or after a steady state has been reached. Comparatively little work exists exploring different and specific ways that repeated cell divisions can lead to stochastic inheritance of unequilibrated cellular populations. Here we introduce a mathematical formalism to describe cellular agents that are subject to random creation, replication and/or degradation, and are inherited according to a range of random dynamics at cell divisions. We obtain closed-form generating functions describing systems at any time after any number of cell divisions for binomial partitioning and divisions provoking a deterministic or random, subtractive or additive change in copy number, and show that these solutions agree exactly with stochastic simulation. We apply this general formalism to several example problems involving the dynamics of mitochondrial DNA during development and organismal lifetimes.

General formulation of Luria-Delbrück distribution of the number of mutants

The Luria-Delbrück experiment is a cornerstone of evolutionary theory, demonstrating the randomness of mutations before selection. The distribution of the number of mutants in this experiment has been the subject of intense investigation during the past 70 years. Despite this considerable effort, most of the results have been obtained under the assumption of constant growth rate, which is far from the experimental condition. We derive here the properties of this distribution for arbitrary growth function for both the deterministic and stochastic growth of the mutants. The derivation we propose uses the number of wild-type bacteria as the independent variable instead of time. The derivation is surprisingly simple and versatile, allowing many generalizations to be taken easily into account.

Drug resistance

Drug resistance is a fundamental problem in the treatment of cancer since cancer that becomes resistant to the available drugs may leave the patient with no therapeutic alternatives. In this chapter, we consider the dynamics of drug resistance in blood cancer and the related issue of the dynamics of cancer stem cells. After describing the main types of chemotherapeutic agents available for cancer treatment, we review the different mechanisms of drug resistance development. Various mathematical models of drug resistance found in the literature are then reviewed. Given the well-known hierarchy of the hematopoietic system, it is critical to focus on those cells that have the ability to self-renew, since these will be the only cells able to induce long-term drug resistance. Thus, a recent mathematical model taking into account the complex dynamics of the leukemic stem-like cells is described. The chapter closes with a few applications of this model to chronic myeloid leukemia.

Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process

Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation.

Scaling solution in the large population limit of the general asymmetric stochastic Luria-Delbrück evolution process

One of the most popular models for quantitatively understanding the emergence of drug resistance both in bacterial colonies and in malignant tumors was introduced long ago by Luria and Delbrück. Here, individual resistant mutants emerge randomly during the birth events of an exponentially growing sensitive population. A most interesting limit of this process occurs when the population size N is large and mutation rates are low, but not necessarily small compared to 1/N. Here we provide a scaling solution valid in this limit, making contact with the theory of Levy α-stable distributions, in particular one discussed long ago by Landau. One consequence of this association is that moments of the distribution are highly misleading as far as characterizing typical behavior. A key insight that enables our solution is that working in the fixed population size ensemble is not the same as working in a fixed time ensemble. Some of our results have been presented previously in shortened form [11].

Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells

Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection) or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction). This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.

Evolutionary rescue: linking theory for conservation and medicine

Evolutionary responses that rescue populations from extinction when drastic environmental changes occur can be friend or foe. The field of conservation biology is concerned with the survival of species in deteriorating global habitats. In medicine, in contrast, infected patients are treated with chemotherapeutic interventions, but drug resistance can compromise eradication of pathogens. These contrasting biological systems and goals have created two quite separate research communities, despite addressing the same central question of whether populations will decline to extinction or be rescued through evolution. We argue that closer integration of the two fields, especially of theoretical understanding, would yield new insights and accelerate progress on these applied problems. Here, we overview and link mathematical modelling approaches in these fields, suggest specific areas with potential for fruitful exchange, and discuss common ideas and issues for empirical testing and prediction.

Exact, time-independent estimation of clone size distributions in normal and mutated cells

Biological tools such as genetic lineage tracing, three-dimensional confocal microscopy and next-generation DNA sequencing are providing new ways to quantify the distribution of clones of normal and mutated cells. Understanding population-wide clone size distributions in vivo is complicated by multiple cell types within observed tissues, and overlapping birth and death processes. This has led to the increased need for mathematically informed models to understand their biological significance. Standard approaches usually require knowledge of clonal age. We show that modelling on clone size independent of time is an alternative method that offers certain analytical advantages; it can help parametrize these models, and obtain distributions for counts of mutated or proliferating cells, for example. When applied to a general birth-death process common in epithelial progenitors, this takes the form of a gambler's ruin problem, the solution of which relates to counting Motzkin lattice paths. Applying this approach to mutational processes, alternative, exact, formulations of classic Luria-Delbrück-type problems emerge. This approach can be extended beyond neutral models of mutant clonal evolution. Applications of these approaches are twofold. First, we resolve the probability of progenitor cells generating proliferating or differentiating progeny in clonal lineage tracing experiments in vivo or cell culture assays where clone age is not known. Second, we model mutation frequency distributions that deep sequencing of subclonal samples produce.

Evolution of acquired resistance to anti-cancer therapy

Acquired drug resistance is a major limitation for the successful treatment of cancer. Resistance can emerge due to a variety of reasons including host environmental factors as well as genetic or epigenetic alterations in the cancer cells. Evolutionary theory has contributed to the understanding of the dynamics of resistance mutations in a cancer cell population, the risk of resistance pre-existing before the initiation of therapy, the composition of drug cocktails necessary to prevent the emergence of resistance, and optimum drug administration schedules for patient populations at risk of evolving acquired resistance. Here we review recent advances towards elucidating the evolutionary dynamics of acquired drug resistance and outline how evolutionary thinking can contribute to outstanding questions in the field.

Variability in the mutation rates of RNA viruses

ABSTRACT: 

It is well established that RNA viruses show extremely high mutation rates, but less attention has been paid to the fact that their mutation rates also vary strongly, from 10-6 to 10-4 substitutions per nucleotide per cell infection. The causes explaining this variability are still poorly understood, but candidate factors are the viral genome size and polarity, host-specific gene expression patterns, or the intracellular environment. Differences between animal and plant viruses, or between arthropod-borne and directly transmitted viruses have also been postulated. Finally, RNA viruses may be able to regulate the rate at which new mutations spread in the population by modifying features of the viral infection cycle, such as lysis time.

Delayed lysis confers resistance to the nucleoside analogue 5-fluorouracil and alleviates mutation accumulation in the single-stranded DNA bacteriophage ϕX174

Rates of spontaneous mutation determine viral fitness and adaptability. In RNA viruses, treatment with mutagenic nucleoside analogues selects for polymerase variants with increased fidelity, showing that viral mutation rates can be adjusted in response to imposed selective pressures. However, this type of resistance is not possible in viruses that do not encode their own polymerases, such as single-stranded DNA viruses. We previously showed that serial passaging of bacteriophage ϕX174 in the presence of the nucleoside analogue 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) favored substitutions in the lysis protein E (P. Domingo-Calap, M. Pereira-Gomez, and R. Sanjuán, J. Virol. 86:: 9640-9646, 2012, doi:10.1128/JVI.00613-12). Here, we found that approximately half (6/12) of the amino acid replacements in the N-terminal region of this protein led to delayed lysis, and two of these changes (V2A and D8A) also conferred partial resistance to 5-FU. By delaying lysis, the V2A and D8A substitutions allowed the virus to increase the burst size per cell in the presence of 5-FU. Furthermore, these substitutions tended to alleviate drug-induced mutagenesis by reducing the number of rounds of copying required for population growth, revealing a new mechanism of resistance. This form of mutation rate regulation may also be utilized by other viruses whose replication mode is similar to that of bacteriophage ϕX174.

IMPORTANCE

Many viruses display high rates of spontaneous mutations due to defects in proofreading or postreplicative repair, allowing them to rapidly adapt to changing environments. Viral mutation rates may have been optimized to achieve high adaptability without incurring an excessive genetic load. Supporting this, RNA viruses subjected to chemical mutagenesis treatments have been shown to evolve higher-fidelity polymerases. However, many viruses cannot modulate replication fidelity because they do not encode their own polymerase. Here, we show a new mechanism for regulating viral mutation rates. We found that, under mutagenic conditions, the single-stranded bacteriophage ϕX174 evolved delayed lysis, and that this allowed the virus to increase the amount of progeny produced per cell. As a result, the viral population was amplified in fewer infection cycles, reducing the chances for mutation appearance.

Variation in RNA virus mutation rates across host cells

It is well established that RNA viruses exhibit higher rates of spontaneous mutation than DNA viruses and microorganisms. However, their mutation rates vary amply, from 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻⁴ substitutions per nucleotide per round of copying (s/n/r) and the causes of this variability remain poorly understood. In addition to differences in intrinsic fidelity or error correction capability, viral mutation rates may be dependent on host factors. Here, we assessed the effect of the cellular environment on the rate of spontaneous mutation of the vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), which has a broad host range and cell tropism. Luria-Delbrück fluctuation tests and sequencing showed that VSV mutated similarly in baby hamster kidney, murine embryonic fibroblasts, colon cancer, and neuroblastoma cells (approx. 10⁻⁵ s/n/r). Cell immortalization through p53 inactivation and oxygen levels (1–21%) did not have a significant impact on viral replication fidelity. This shows that previously published mutation rates can be considered reliable despite being based on a narrow and artificial set of laboratory conditions. Interestingly, we also found that VSV mutated approximately four times more slowly in various insect cells compared with mammalian cells. This may contribute to explaining the relatively slow evolution of VSV and other arthropod-borne viruses in nature.

RNA viruses show high rates of spontaneous mutation, a feature that profoundly influences viral evolution, disease emergence, the appearance of drug resistances, and vaccine efficacy. However, RNA virus mutation rates vary substantially and the factors determining this variability remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of host factors on viral replication fidelity by measuring the viral mutation rate in different cell types and under various culturing conditions. To carry out these experiments we chose the vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), an insect-transmitted mammalian RNA virus with an extremely wide cellular and host tropism. We found that the VSV replication machinery was robust to changes in cellular physiology driven by cell immortalization or shifts in temperature and oxygen levels. In contrast, VSV mutated significantly more slowly in insect cells than in mammalian cells, a finding may help us to understand why arthropod-borne viruses tend to evolve more slowly than directly transmitted viruses in nature.

Fluctuation analysis: can estimates be trusted?

The estimation of mutation rates and relative fitnesses in fluctuation analysis is based on the unrealistic hypothesis that the single-cell times to division are exponentially distributed. Using the classical Luria-Delbrück distribution outside its modelling hypotheses induces an important bias on the estimation of the relative fitness. The model is extended here to any division time distribution. Mutant counts follow a generalization of the Luria-Delbrück distribution, which depends on the mean number of mutations, the relative fitness of normal cells compared to mutants, and the division time distribution of mutant cells. Empirical probability generating function techniques yield precise estimates both of the mean number of mutations and the relative fitness of normal cells compared to mutants. In the case where no information is available on the division time distribution, it is shown that the estimation procedure using constant division times yields more reliable results. Numerical results both on observed and simulated data are reported.

Large population solution of the stochastic Luria-Delbruck evolution model

Luria and Delbrück introduced a very useful and subsequently widely adopted framework for quantitatively understanding the emergence of new cellular lineages. Here, we provide an analytical treatment of the fully stochastic version of the model, enabled by the fact that population sizes at the time of measurement are invariably very large and mutation rates are low. We show that the Lea-Coulson generating function describes the "inner solution," where the number of mutants is much smaller than the total population. We find that the corresponding distribution function interpolates between a monotonic decrease at relatively small populations, (compared with the inverse of the mutation probability), whereas it goes over to a Lévy α-stable distribution in the very large population limit. The moments are completely determined by the outer solution, and so are devoid of practical significance. The key to our solution is focusing on the fixed population size ensemble, which we show is very different from the fixed time ensemble due to the extreme variability in the evolutionary process.

The effect of one additional driver mutation on tumor progression

Tumor growth is caused by the acquisition of driver mutations, which enhance the net reproductive rate of cells. Driver mutations may increase cell division, reduce cell death, or allow cells to overcome density-limiting effects. We study the dynamics of tumor growth as one additional driver mutation is acquired. Our models are based on two-type branching processes that terminate in either tumor disappearance or tumor detection. In our first model, both cell types grow exponentially, with a faster rate for cells carrying the additional driver. We find that the additional driver mutation does not affect the survival probability of the lesion, but can substantially reduce the time to reach the detectable size if the lesion is slow growing. In our second model, cells lacking the additional driver cannot exceed a fixed carrying capacity, due to density limitations. In this case, the time to detection depends strongly on this carrying capacity. Our model provides a quantitative framework for studying tumor dynamics during different stages of progression. We observe that early, small lesions need additional drivers, while late stage metastases are only marginally affected by them. These results help to explain why additional driver mutations are typically not detected in fast-growing metastases.

Accumulation of neutral mutations in growing cell colonies with competition

Neutral mutations play an important role in many biological processes including cancer initiation and progression, the generation of drug resistance in bacterial and viral diseases as well as cancers, and the development of organs in multicellular organisms. In this paper we study how neutral mutants are accumulated in nonlinearly growing colonies of cells subject to growth constraints such as crowding or lack of resources. We investigate different types of growth control which range from "division-controlled" to "death-controlled" growth (and various mixtures of both). In division-controlled growth, the burden of handling overcrowding lies with the process of cell-divisions, the divisions slow down as the carrying capacity is approached. In death-controlled growth, it is death rate that increases to slow down expansion. We show that division-controlled growth minimizes the number of accumulated mutations, and death-controlled growth corresponds to the maximum number of mutants. We check that these results hold in both deterministic and stochastic settings. We further develop a general (deterministic) theory of neutral mutations and achieve an analytical understanding of the mutant accumulation in colonies of a given size in the absence of back-mutations. The long-term dynamics of mutants in the presence of back-mutations is also addressed. In particular, with equal forward- and back-mutation rates, if division-controlled and a death-controlled types are competing for space and nutrients, cells obeying division-controlled growth will dominate the population.

Mean field mutation dynamics and the continuous Luria-Delbrück distribution

The Luria-Delbrück mutation model has a long history and has been mathematically formulated in several different ways. Here we tackle the problem in the case of a continuous distribution using some mathematical tools from nonlinear statistical physics. Starting from the classical formulations we derive the corresponding differential models and show that under a suitable mean field scaling they correspond to generalized Fokker-Planck equations for the mutants distribution whose solutions are given by the corresponding Luria-Delbrück distribution. Numerical results confirming the theoretical analysis are also presented.