[Clinical and endoscopic prognostic factors in patients with bleeding peptic ulcer]

Simple risk factors to predict urgent endoscopy in nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding pre-endoscopically

The goal of this study is to evaluate how to predict high-risk nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) pre-endoscopically. A total of 569 NVUGIB patients between Match 2011 and January 2015 were retrospectively studied. The clinical characteristics and laboratory data were statistically analyzed. The severity of NVUGIB was based on high-risk NVUGIB (Forrest I-IIb), and low-risk NVUGIB (Forrest IIc and III). By logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic curve, simple risk score systems were derived which predicted patients' risks of potentially needing endoscopic intervention to control bleeding. Risk score systems combined of patients' serum hemoglobin (Hb) ≤75 g/L, red hematemesis, red stool, shock, and blood urine nitrogen ≥8.5 mmol/L within 24 hours after admission were derived. As for each one of these clinical signs, the relatively high specificity was 97.9% for shock, 96.4% for red stool, 85.5% for red hematemesis, 76.7% for Hb ≤75 g/L, and the sensitivity was 50.8% for red hematemesis, 47.5% for Hb ≤75 g/L, 14.2% for red stool, and 10.9% for shock. When these 5 clinical signs were presented as a risk score system, the highest area of receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.746, with sensitivity 0.675 and specificity 0.733, which discriminated well with high-risk NVUGIB. These simple risk factors identified patients with high-risk NVUGIB of needing treatment to manage their bleeding pre-endoscopically. Further validation in the clinic was required.

Prognostic factors in gastrointestinal bleeding due to peptic ulcer: construction of a predictive model

OBJECTIVES

The identification of prognostic factors of easy application in clinical practice can improve the diagnostic and therapeutic decision making process in upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGB). The present study estimates the capacity to predict an unfavorable clinical course (mortality, unstable bleeding, and/or interventional therapy) on the basis of the preendoscopic and endoscopic clinical analytical findings in patients with UGB owing to peptic ulcer.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study was made of 473 adult patients seen in the Emergency Service of a District Hospital, and diagnosed with UGB secondary to gastroduodenal ulcer. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct different models, with the evaluation of their predictive capacity based on calculation of the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC). The final model was used to calculate the probabilities of an unfavorable clinical course for different profiles, with the purpose of constructing an algorithm of help in the decision making process applied to patients initially considered to be at low risk (Forrest classification IIb and III).

RESULTS

The model with the Forrest variable showed a high predictive capacity: ROCa=0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.85). Incorporation to the model of clinical and preendoscopic factors (type of UGB, hematocrit, kidney failure, and liver disease) significantly increased its predictive capacity: ROCa=0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.91). This model allows the differentiation of different complication risk levels in patients initially at low risk according to the Forrest classification (IIb and III).

CONCLUSIONS

The Forrest classification is the principal predictive factor for an unfavorable course in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding owing to peptic ulcer, though clinical factors are also important and should complement the decision taking process.

Risk assessment and outpatient management in bleeding peptic ulcer

AIMS

1) To review clinical and endoscopic variables in patients hospitalized for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) due to peptic gastroduodenal lesions over a period of 3 years; 2) to identify factors associated with unfavorable evolution; and 3) to evaluate characteristics of patients discharged immediately after endoscopy.

METHODS

A 3-year retrospective analysis of all UGIB episodes was performed. Patients with gastroduodenal ulcer or erosive gastritis/duodenitis at endoscopy were included. The prognostic value of several clinical, endoscopic, and analytical variables was assessed. Persistence or recurrence of bleeding, surgery, and mortality were considered as outcome variables (evolution was classified as "unfavorable" when any of these was observed).

RESULTS

A total of 341 patients were identified, with a mean age of 62 years. Melena was the most frequent UGIB presentation (70%). Forty-five percent had associated diseases, and 45% were taking gastroerosive drugs. Duodenal ulcer was the most frequent cause of UGIB (48%), followed by gastric ulcer (32%). The evolution of UGIB was unfavorable in 7% of cases. Variables associated with unfavorable evolution in the multivariate analysis were: systolic blood pressure < or = 100 mm Hg, heart rate > or = 100 bpm, and a Forrest endoscopic classification of severe. Only 10% of patients were immediately discharged, with no subsequent complications. However, if predictive variables obtained in the multivariate analysis had been used, hospitalization could have been prevented in 115 patients (34%) without subsequent complications.

CONCLUSIONS

A number of clinical and endoscopic variables (blood pressure, heart rate, and endoscopic stigmata of bleeding) with prognostic value have been identified. These are easy to obtain and apply in clinical practice and allow an accurate estimation of the evolution of UGIB. This diagnostic strategy identifies a relatively high proportion of UGIB patients who can be managed on an outpatient basis.