Ionizing radiation and genetic risks. XII. The concept of "potential recoverability correction factor" (PRCF) and its use for predicting the risk of radiation-inducible genetic disease in human live births

Consideration of hereditary effects in the radiological protection system: evolution and current status

PURPOSE

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the methodology used to estimate radiation genetic risks and quantify the risk of hereditary effects as outlined in the ICRP Publication 103. It aims to highlight the historical background and development of the doubling dose method for estimating radiation-related genetic risks and its continued use in radiological protection frameworks.

RESULTS

This article emphasizes the complexity associated with quantifying the risk of hereditary effects caused by radiation exposure and highlights the need for further clarification and explanation of the calculation method. As scientific knowledge in radiation sciences and human genetics continues to advance in relation to a number of factors including stability of disease frequency, selection pressures, and epigenetic changes, the characterization and quantification of genetic effects still remains a major issue for the radiological protection system of the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

CONCLUSION

Further research and advancements in this field are crucial for enhancing our understanding and addressing the complexities involved in assessing and managing the risks associated with hereditary effects of radiation.

Genome-based, mechanism-driven computational modeling of risks of ionizing radiation: The next frontier in genetic risk estimation?

Research activity in the field of estimation of genetic risks of ionizing radiation to human populations started in the late 1940s and now appears to be passing through a plateau phase. This paper provides a background to the concepts, findings and methods of risk estimation that guided the field through the period of its growth to the beginning of the 21st century. It draws attention to several key facts: (a) thus far, genetic risk estimates have been made indirectly using mutation data collected in mouse radiation studies; (b) important uncertainties and unsolved problems remain, one notable example being that we still do not know the sensitivity of human female germ cells to radiation-induced mutations; and (c) the concept that dominated the field thus far, namely, that radiation exposures to germ cells can result in single gene diseases in the descendants of those exposed has been replaced by the concept that radiation exposure can cause DNA deletions, often involving more than one gene. Genetic risk estimation now encompasses work devoted to studies on DNA deletions induced in human germ cells, their expected frequencies, and phenotypes and associated clinical consequences in the progeny. We argue that the time is ripe to embark on a human genome-based, mechanism-driven, computational modeling of genetic risks of ionizing radiation, and we present a provisional framework for catalyzing research in the field in the 21st century.

Origin of the linearity no threshold (LNT) dose-response concept

This paper identifies the origin of the linearity at low-dose concept [i.e., linear no threshold (LNT)] for ionizing radiation-induced mutation. After the discovery of X-ray-induced mutations, Olson and Lewis (Nature 121(3052):673-674, 1928) proposed that cosmic/terrestrial radiation-induced mutations provide the principal mechanism for the induction of heritable traits, providing the driving force for evolution. For this concept to be general, a LNT dose relationship was assumed, with genetic damage proportional to the energy absorbed. Subsequent studies suggested a linear dose response for ionizing radiation-induced mutations (Hanson and Heys in Am Nat 63(686):201-213, 1929; Oliver in Science 71:44-46, 1930), supporting the evolutionary hypothesis. Based on an evaluation of spontaneous and ionizing radiation-induced mutation with Drosophila, Muller argued that background radiation had a negligible impact on spontaneous mutation, discrediting the ionizing radiation-based evolutionary hypothesis. Nonetheless, an expanded set of mutation dose-response observations provided a basis for collaboration between theoretical physicists (Max Delbruck and Gunter Zimmer) and the radiation geneticist Nicolai Timoféeff-Ressovsky. They developed interrelated physical science-based genetics perspectives including a biophysical model of the gene, a radiation-induced gene mutation target theory and the single-hit hypothesis of radiation-induced mutation, which, when integrated, provided the theoretical mechanism and mathematical basis for the LNT model. The LNT concept became accepted by radiation geneticists and recommended by national/international advisory committees for risk assessment of ionizing radiation-induced mutational damage/cancer from the mid-1950s to the present. The LNT concept was later generalized to chemical carcinogen risk assessment and used by public health and regulatory agencies worldwide.

James Neel and the doubling dose concept

The doubling dose (DD) is a very valuable concept in attempts to assess the genetic risks of radiation in man. It was long thought that the value of the doubling dose obtained from specific locus experiments in mice could be applied to man. James Neel, as a result of his studies on the offspring of atomic bomb survivors, showed that this was not so, but that different doubling doses could be inferred from different endpoints.

Estimation of the hereditary risks of exposure to ionizing radiation: history, current status, and emerging perspectives

This paper provides a brief overview of the advances in the field of the estimation of the genetic risks of exposure of human populations to ionizing radiation from the early 1950's to the present and of the developments that are anticipated in the coming years. The latter are based on the view that the insights gained from human genetics, especially human molecular genetics, will be increasingly applied to address problems in risk estimation. Owing to the paucity of human data on radiation-induced mutations, mouse data on radiation-induced mutations are used to predict the risk of genetic diseases in humans using the doubling dose method. With this method, the risk per unit dose is expressed as a product of three quantities, i.e., P x 1/DD x MC where P is the baseline frequency of genetic diseases, 1/DD (the relative mutation risk per unit dose; DD refers to the doubling dose, i.e., the radiation dose required to produce as many mutations as those that occur spontaneously in a generation) and MC is the disease class-specific mutation component (a measure of the relative increase in disease frequency per unit relative increase in mutation rate). The five important changes that are now introduced in genetic risk estimation include (1) an upward revision of the baseline frequency of Mendelian diseases to 2.4% (from 1.25% used until the early 1990's); (2) a reversion to the conceptual basis for DD calculations used in the 1972 BEIR report of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, namely, the use of human data on spontaneous mutation rates and mouse data on induced mutation rates (instead of the use of mouse data for both these rates as has been the case from mid-1970's until the early 1990's); (3) the fuller development and use of the MC concept for predicting the responsiveness of Mendelian and multifactorial diseases to increases in mutation rate; (4) the introduction of a new disease-class-specific quantity called the "potential recoverability correction factor" or PRCF in the risk equation to bridge the gap between the rates of induced mutations in mice and the risk of inducible genetic diseases in humans; and (5) the introduction of the concept that multisystem developmental abnormalities are likely to be among the principal phenotypes of radiation induced genetic damage in humans. All these advances now permit, for the first time in 40 y, the estimation of risks for all classes of genetic diseases. For a population exposed to low-LET, chronic or low-dose irradiation, the risks predicted for the first generation progeny are the following (all estimates are per million live born progeny per gray of parental irradiation): autosomal dominant and x-linked diseases, approximately 750 to 1,500 cases; autosomal recessive, nearly zero; chronic multifactorial diseases, approximately 250 to 1,200 cases; and congenital abnormalities, approximately 2000 cases. The total risk per gray is of the order of approximately 3,000 to 4,700 cases, which represent approximately 0.4 to 0.6% of the baseline frequency of these diseases (738,000 per million) in the population. The advances anticipated in the coming years are likely to permit the estimation of genetic risks of radiation with greater precision than is now possible.

Ionizing radiation and genetic risks. XIII. Summary and synthesis of papers VI to XII and estimates of genetic risks in the year 2000

This paper recapitulates the advances in the field of genetic risk estimation that have occurred during the past decade and using them as a basis, presents revised estimates of genetic risks of exposure to radiation. The advances include: (i) an upward revision of the estimates of incidence for Mendelian diseases (2.4% now versus 1.25% in 1993); (ii) the introduction of a conceptual change for calculating doubling doses; (iii) the elaboration of methods to estimate the mutation component (i.e. the relative increase in disease frequency per unit relative increase in mutation rate) and the use of the estimates obtained through these methods for assessing the impact of induced mutations on the incidence of Mendelian and chronic multifactorial diseases; (iv) the introduction of an additional factor called the "potential recoverability correction factor" in the risk equation to bridge the gap between radiation-induced mutations that have been recovered in mice and the risk of radiation-inducible genetic disease in human live births and (v) the introduction of the concept that the adverse effects of radiation-induced genetic damage are likely to be manifest predominantly as multi-system developmental abnormalities in the progeny. For all classes of genetic disease (except congenital abnormalities), the estimates of risk have been obtained using a doubling dose of 1 Gy. For a population exposed to low LET, chronic/ low dose irradiation, the current estimates for the first generation progeny are the following (all estimates per million live born progeny per Gy of parental irradiation): autosomal dominant and X-linked diseases, approximately 750-1500 cases; autosomal recessive, nearly zero and chronic multifactorial diseases, approximately 250-1200 cases. For congenital abnormalities, the estimate is approximately 2000 cases and is based on mouse data on developmental abnormalities. The total risk per Gy is of the order of approximately 3000-4700 cases which represent approximately 0.4-0.6% of the baseline frequency of these diseases (738,000 per million) in the population.