Uses of error: the wrong research costs lives

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines for preventing vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia with consolidation on x-ray in children under two years of age

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia, most commonly caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (Pnc), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among young children especially in developing countries. Recently, the prevalence of antibiotic-resistant Pnc has increased worldwide such that the effectiveness of preventive strategies, like the new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) on rates of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumonia, needs to be evaluated.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the efficacy of PCV in reducing the incidence of IPD due to vaccine serotypes (VT) and x-ray confirmed pneumonia with consolidation of unspecified etiology in children who received PCV before 12 months of age.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the following databases: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library, Issue 1 2004), MEDLINE (1990 to March 2004) and EMBASE (1990 to December 2003). Reference list of articles, and books of abstracts of relevant symposia, were hand searched. Researchers in the field were also contacted.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing PCV with placebo, or another vaccine, among children below two years with IPD and clinical/radiographic pneumonia as outcomes.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two reviewers independently identified eligible studies, assessed trial quality, and extracted data. Differences were resolved by discussion. The inverse variance method was used to pool effect sizes.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified four trials assessing the efficacy of PCV in reducing the incidence of IPD, two on x-ray confirmed pneumonia as outcome, and one on clinical pneumonia, with or without x-ray confirmation. Results from pooling HIV-1 negative children from the South African study with the other studies were as follows: the pooled vaccine efficacy (VE) for vaccine-type IPD was 88% (95% confidence interval (CI) 73% to 94%; fixed effect and random effects models), the effect measure was statistically significant (p <0.00001) and there was no heterogeneity (p = 0.77I2 0%); the pooled VE for all-serotype IPD was 66% (95% CI 46% to 79%; fixed effect model), the effect measure was statistically significant (p <0.00001) and there was no statistical heterogeneity (p = 0.09, I2 51%); the pooled VE for x-ray confirmed pneumonia was 22% (95% CI 11% to 31%; both fixed effect and random effects models) and there was no statistical heterogeneity (p = 0.80, I2 0%). Analyses that included all the children in the South African study (HIV-1 negative and HIV-1 positive children) and pooled with data from the other studies gave very similar results.

REVIEWERS' CONCLUSIONS

PCV is effective in reducing the incidence of IPD from all serotypes but exerts a greater effect in reducing VT IPD. Although PCV is also effective in reducing the incidence of x-ray confirmed pneumonia, there are still uncertainties about the definition of this outcome. Additional randomised controlled trials are currently in progress.

Why we need to know whether prophylactic antibiotics can reduce measles-related morbidity

In some parts of the world, measles vaccination has resulted in very substantial reductions in measles-related morbidity and mortality. Even so, it has been estimated that 30 million people still contract the disease every year, that nearly 1 million of these die, and that measles-related deaths account for about 10% of all deaths in children under the age of 5 in developing countries. Existing evidence from controlled trials suggests that antibiotic prophylaxis in measles can result in important reductions in measles-related morbidity, and, at a World Health Organization meeting convened in 1993 to decide on research priorities for the treatment of measles, highest priority was accorded to additional controlled trials of prophylactic antibiotics. As controlled trials of vitamin A in measles have made clear, such trials are feasible. Continued acquiescence in uncertainties about the effects of prophylactic antibiotics in a disease that continues to afflict so many children worldwide is unacceptable.