Principles of epidemiological research on drug effects

Reliable assessment of the effects of treatment on mortality and major morbidity, II: observational studies

Observational studies and randomised trials can contribute complementary evidence about the effects of treatment on mortality and on major non-fatal outcomes. In particular, observational studies have an important role in the identification of large adverse effects of treatment on infrequent outcomes (ie, rare, but serious, side-effects) that are not likely to be related to the indications for (or contraindications to) the treatment of interest. Such studies can also provide useful information about the risks of death and disability in particular circumstances that can help to generalise from clinical trials to clinical practice. But, due to their inherent potential for moderate or large biases, observational studies have little role in the direct assessment of any moderate effects of treatment on major outcomes that might exist. Instead, sufficiently large-scale evidence from randomised trials is needed to assess such treatment effects appropriately reliably. Wider appreciation of the different strengths and weaknesses of these two types of epidemiological study should increase the likelihood that the most reliable evidence available informs decisions about the treatments doctors use--and patients receive--for the management of a wide range of life-threatening conditions.

The effects of age, body mass index, smoking and general health on the risk of venous thromboembolism in users of combined oral contraceptives

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the factors associated with idiopathic venous thromboembolism in combined oral contraceptive users and to estimate the crude and age-specific incidence rates ofidiopathic venous thromboembolism among this population.

METHODS

The UK MediPlus Database and the General Practice Research Database were searched to identify women with evidence of venous thromboembolism while exposed to combined oral contraceptives. Cohort and nested case-control studies were carried out using the same methodology on both databases. We conducted a meta-analysis using the individual data for the cases and controls from the two case-control studies to identify factors associated with idiopathic venous thromboembolism in women using combined oral contraceptives.

RESULTS

The incidence rate of idiopathic venous thromboembolism among oral contraceptive users was 39.4 per 100,000 exposed woman-years. The age-specific incidence rates were found to rise sharply after the age of 39 years. Factors identified as being significantly associated with idiopathic venous thromboembolism in women using combined oral contraceptives were: body mass index of 25 kg/m2 and over, the association rising dramatically in women with a body mass index of 35 kg/m2 or more; smoking; general ill health; and asthma.

CONCLUSION

We believe that, before prescribing combined oral contraceptives, the venous as well as the arterial factors need to be considered and, in addition, age, obesity and smoking are all relevant when assessing an individual patient's risk.