Mortality data for sub-Saharan Africa

Nutritional status and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Predictions for 2020

The subject of the future regarding nutritional status and food security, and of their ramifications in terms of nutrition-related disorders/diseases in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) populations, is a complex one. As well as social unrest, a country's socioeconomic situation may affect food availability and, crucially, influence the generally low proportions of the Gross National Product devoted to health services. Additional determinants include changes in the roles of non-dietary adverse factors (i.e. smoking practice, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity) and of infections (i.e. gastroenteritis, malaria, tuberculosis and, particularly, HIV). As to future health in 2020, major increases in socioeconomic status are very unlikely; in fact, there has been a deterioration in some countries with food shortages affecting nutrition status and food security. However, with some measures of prosperity there are likely to be decreases in family size and falls in the proportions of children born with low birthweights or with protein-energy-malnutrition (PEM), and of children lying under the 5th percentile of growth reference standards. Simultaneously, though. there will be variable rises, especially in urban dwellers, in the occurrence of hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and certain cancers. Improvements in the health status of both children and adults are likely to be strongly affected by whether HIV infection can be controlled or whether it becomes rampant.

Validity of data-derived algorithms for ascertaining causes of adult death in two African sites using verbal autopsy

background Verbal autopsy (VA) is used to ascertain causes of death using information obtained from bereaved relatives. Causes of death can be ascertained from VA questionnaires by a panel of physicians or from predefined algorithms. In a previous study, we developed data-derived algorithms using VA data from 796 adult deaths in hospitals in Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Ghana (primary sites). These computerized algorithms accurately estimated the cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for deaths due to injuries, meningitis, TB/AIDS and diarrhoeal diseases in the primary sites. Since the same data were used to generate and to validate the algorithms, the accuracy of our algorithms may have been overestimated. We report here on the validity of the algorithms when they were applied to VA data from two secondary sites in Ghana and Tanzania. Here, 'validity' is taken to mean the degree to which the algorithms replicated the physician-generated CSMF for major causes of death, when applied to the same VA data. methods VA interviews were conducted in two secondary sites: in Navrongo, Ghana, on 406 adult deaths, where three local physicians independently reviewed the questionnaires and assigned a cause of death. In Morogoro, Tanzania, VA interviews were conducted on 209 adult deaths, and a panel of physicians independently reviewed the VA questionnaires together with the hospital death certificates or hospital records to determine the cause of death. The CSMF obtained using each algorithm was compared with the CSMF obtained using physician review. results For injuries and meningitis, the algorithms and physician review estimated a similar CSMF in the Morogoro and Navrongo data. For TB/AIDS, the algorithm estimated a similar CSMF as the physicians in Morogoro. The algorithm for diarrhoeal diseases did not agree closely with the physicians in Morogoro or Navrongo. conclusions In general, our data-derived algorithms for assigning causes of death due to injuries, meningitis, and TB/AIDS estimated a similar CSMF as the physicians in the secondary sites. Recommendations for further validation and refinement are discussed. Computerized algorithms offer a potentially quick, affordable, and feasible method for assigning causes of death in mortality surveillance or studies using VA.