The effect of mass immunisation campaigns and new oral poliovirus vaccines on the incidence of poliomyelitis in Pakistan and Afghanistan, 2001-11: a retrospective analysis

Effectiveness of poliovirus vaccines against circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis in Nigeria between 2017 and 2022: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria experienced continuous transmission of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2), with 526 cases of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis detected in total and approximately 180 million doses of monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) and 450 million doses of novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2) delivered in outbreak response campaigns. Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) was introduced into routine immunisation in 2015, with a second dose added in 2021. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis and compare nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV.

METHODS

In this retrospective case-control study, we used acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance data in Nigeria from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022, using age-matched, onset-matched, and location-matched cVDPV2-negative AFP cases as test-negative controls. We also did a parallel prospective study from March, 2021, using age-matched community controls from the same settlement as the cases. We included children born after May, 2016, younger than 60 months, for whom polio immunisation history (doses of OPV from campaigns and IPV) was reported. We estimated the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis using conditional logistic regression and compared nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV.

FINDINGS

In the retrospective case-control study, we identified 509 cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases in Nigeria with case verification and paralysis onset between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2022. Of these, 82 children were excluded for not meeting inclusion criteria, and 363 (85%) of 427 eligible cases were matched to 1303 test-negative controls. Cases reported fewer OPV and IPV doses than test-negative controls (mean number of OPV doses 5·9 [SD 4·2] in cases vs 6·7 [4·3] in controls; one or more IPV doses reported in 95 [26%] of 363 cases vs 513 [39%] of 1303 controls). We found low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (12%, 95% CI -2 to 25) and mOPV2 (17%, 3 to 29), but no significant difference between the two vaccines (p=0·67). The estimated effectiveness of one IPV dose was 43% (23 to 58). In the prospective study, 181 (46%) of 392 eligible cases were matched to 1557 community controls. Using community controls, we found a high effectiveness of IPV (89%, 95% CI 83 to 93, for one dose), a low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (-23%, -45 to -5) and mOPV2 (1%, -23 to 20), and no significant difference between the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 and mOPV2 (p=0·12).

INTERPRETATION

We found no significant difference in estimated effectiveness of the two oral vaccines, supporting the recommendation that the more genetically stable nOPV2 should be preferred in cVDPV2 outbreak response. Our findings highlight the role of IPV and the necessity of strengthening routine immunisation, the primary route through which IPV is delivered.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UK Medical Research Council.

Impact of Supplementary Immunization Activities using Novel Oral Polio Vaccine Type 2 during a Large outbreak of Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Novel oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) type 2 (nOPV2) has been made available for outbreak response under an emergency use listing authorization based on supportive clinical trial data. Since 2021 more than 350 million doses of nOPV2 were used for control of a large outbreak of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) in Nigeria.

METHODS

Using a bayesian time-series susceptible-infectious-recovered model, we evaluate the field effectiveness of nOPV2 immunization campaigns in Nigeria compared with campaigns using monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2).

RESULTS

We found that both nOPV2 and mOPV2 campaigns were highly effective in reducing transmission of cVDPV2, on average reducing the susceptible population by 42% (95% confidence interval, 28-54%) and 38% (20-51%) per campaign, respectively, which were indistinguishable from each other in this analysis (relative effect, 1.1 [.7-1.9]). Impact was found to vary across areas and between immunization campaigns.

CONCLUSIONS

These results are consistent with the comparable individual immunogenicity of nOPV2 and mOPV2 found in clinical trials but also suggest that outbreak response campaigns may have small impacts in some areas requiring more campaigns than are suggested in current outbreak response procedures.

Factors Associated with Vaccine Refusal (Polio and Routine Immunization) in High-Risk Areas of Pakistan: A Matched Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Pakistan has subpar childhood immunization rates and immunization activities have faced several challenges over the past years. We evaluated the social-behavioral and cultural barriers and risk factors for refusal of polio, Routine Immunization (RI), or both in high-risk areas of poliovirus circulation.

METHODS

A matched case-control study was conducted from April to July 2017 in eight super high-risk Union Councils of five towns in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 3 groups, each with 250 cases, including refusals for the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) in campaigns (national immunization days and supplementary immunization activities), RI, and both, were matched with 500 controls and identified using surveillance records. Sociodemographic characteristics, household information, and immunization history were assessed. Study outcomes included social-behavioral and cultural barriers and reasons for vaccine refusal. Data were analyzed in STATA using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

RI refusal was associated with illiteracy and fear of the vaccine's adverse effects, while OPV refusals were linked to the mother's decision authority and the assumption that the OPV caused infertility. Conversely, higher socioeconomic status (SES) and knowledge of and willingness to vaccinate with Inactivated Polio Vaccine (IPV) were inversely associated with RI; and lower SES, walking to the vaccination point, knowledge of IPV, and an understanding of contracting polio were inversely associated with OPV refusals, with the latter two also inversely associated with complete vaccine refusal.

CONCLUSION

Education, knowledge and understanding of vaccines, and socioeconomic determinants influenced OPV and RI refusals among children. Effective interventions are needed to address knowledge gaps and misconceptions among parents.

Suboptimal Serologic Immunity Against Poliomyelitis Among New Migrant Children in Greece Calls for Organized Action

BACKGROUND

Migration-flows pose the risk of poliovirus reintroduction from endemic countries to Greece. This study aims to evaluate serologic-immunity/vaccination against poliomyelitis in newly-arriving migrant children.

METHODS

Demographic-immunisation data and blood-serum were obtained from migrants 1-14years-old, referred to a hospital-clinic in Athens-Greece within three months from arrival. Immunity to polioviruses-1-3 was determined by serum-neutralizing-antibodies(WHO guidelines). Titers ≥ 1:8 were considered positive.

RESULTS

From 9/2010 to 9/2013, 274 children(150 refugees/124 immigrants), mean age 7.1years-old, were enrolled. Only 57(20.8%) of them presented with vaccination-records. Children originated mainly from Asia(n = 198), Eastern Europe(n = 28), Middle East(n = 24) and Africa(n = 24) with 160(58.4%) from polio-endemic-countries(Afghanistan-112(40.8%), Pakistan-24(8.8%) and India-24(8.8%)). Seropositivity against polio-1-2&3 was 84.3%, 86.1% and 74.5%, respectively. Immigrants, had higher seroprotective rates against polioviruses-1-2&3 than refugees(polio-1:p = 0.002;polio-2:p = 0.004,polio-3:p < 0.001). Seronegativity to 1PVs-2PVs and all three polio serotypes was found in 37(13.5%),12 (4.4%), and 30 children(10.9%) respectively. Increasing number of vaccine-doses, and younger-age, were positively-associated with seropositivity.

DISCUSSION

A remarkable fraction of newly-arrived migrant-children were seronegative to one or more polioviruses.

Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus

Polio can circulate unobserved in regions that are challenging to monitor. To assess the probability of silent circulation, simulation models can be used to understand transmission dynamics when detection is unreliable. Model assumptions, however, impact the estimated probability of silent circulation. Here, we examine the impact of having distinct populations, rather than a single well-mixed population, with a discrete-individual model including environmental surveillance. We show that partitioning a well-mixed population into networks of distinct communities may result in a higher probability of silent circulation as a result of the time it takes for the detection of a circulation event. Population structure should be considered when assessing polio control in a region with many loosely interacting communities.

Analysis of population immunity to poliovirus following cessation of trivalent oral polio vaccine

BACKGROUND

The global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) (tOPV, containing Sabin poliovirus strains serotypes 1, 2 and 3) from routine immunization, and the introduction of bivalent OPV (bOPV, containing Sabin poliovirus strains serotypes 1 and 3) and trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization was expected to improve population serologic and mucosal immunity to types 1 and 3 poliovirus, while population mucosal immunity to type 2 poliovirus would decline. However, over the period since tOPV withdrawal, the implementation of preventive bOPV supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) has decreased, while outbreaks of type 2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) have required targeted use of monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2).

METHODS

We develop a dynamic model of OPV-induced immunity to estimate serotype-specific, district-level immunity for countries in priority regions and characterize changes in immunity since 2016. We account for the changes in routine immunization schedules and varying implementation of preventive and outbreak response SIAs, assuming homogenous coverages of 50% and 80% for SIAs.

RESULTS

In areas with strong routine immunization, the switch from tOPV to bOPV has likely resulted in gains in population immunity to types 1 and 3 poliovirus. However, we estimate that improved immunogenicity of new schedules has not compensated for declines in preventive SIAs in areas with weak routine immunization. For type 2 poliovirus, without tOPV in routine immunization or SIAs, mucosal immunity has declined nearly everywhere, while use of mOPV2 has created highly heterogeneous population immunity for which it is important to take into account when responding to cVDPV2 outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

The withdrawal of tOPV and declining allocations of resources for preventive bOPV SIAs have resulted in reduced immunity in vulnerable areas to types 1 and 3 poliovirus and generally reduced immunity to type 2 poliovirus in the regions studied, assuming homogeneous coverages of 50% and 80% for SIAs. The very low mucosal immunity to type 2 poliovirus generates substantially greater risk for further spread of cVDPV2 outbreaks. Emerging gaps in immunity to all serotypes will require judicious targeting of limited resources to the most vulnerable populations by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI).

Estimation of oral poliovirus vaccine effectiveness in Afghanistan, 2010-2020

BACKGROUND

Afghanistan is one of two countries with endemic wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1). The oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) is the predominant vaccine used for polio eradication. Although OPV has been administered in routine childhood immunization and during frequent supplementary immunization activities, WPV1 continues to circulate in Afghanistan and case incidence has been increasing since 2017. We estimated the effectiveness of OPV in Afghanistan during 2010-2020.

METHODS

We conducted a matched case-control analysis using acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance data from 29,370 children < 15 years with AFP onset between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2020. We matched children with confirmed WPV1 (cases) with children with non-polio AFP (controls) by age at onset of paralysis (+/- 3 months), date of onset of paralysis (+/- 3 months), and province of residence, and compared their reported OPV vaccination history to estimate the effectiveness of OPV in preventing paralysis by WPV1 using conditional logistic regression. To account for changes in OPV formulations provided over the analysis period, we stratified the analysis based on dates of the global switch from trivalent OPV (tOPV) to bivalent OPV (bOPV) in April 2016.

RESULTS

Between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2020, there were 329 WPV1 cases in Afghanistan. The per-dose estimated effectiveness of OPV against WPV1 was 19% (95% CI: 15%-22%) and of ≥ 7 doses was 94% (95% CI: 90%-97%). Before the global switch from tOPV to bOPV, the per-dose estimated effectiveness of OPV was 14% (95% CI: 11%-18%) and of ≥ 7 doses was 92% (95% CI: 85%-96%). After the switch, the per-dose estimated effectiveness of OPV against WPV1 was 32% (24%-39%) and of ≥ 7 doses was 96% (95% CI: 90%-99%).

DISCUSSION

OPV is highly effective in preventing paralysis by WPV1; these results indicate that continued WPV1 transmission in Afghanistan is due to failure to vaccinate, not failure of the vaccine. Although difficult to implement in parts of country, improving the administration of OPV in routine immunization and supplementary immunization activities will be critical for achieving polio eradication in Afghanistan.

Factors related with COVID-19 vaccination willingness among outpatients in China

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccination has been accepted widely. However, there are only a few reports on patients' willingness to be vaccinated. This study investigated the willingness of Chinese outpatients to accept COVID-19 vaccination as well as influencing factors.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Jiangsu province, China in December 2020. Self-administered questionnaires, which were distributed to 625 outpatients among secondary hospitals, addressed demographic characteristics, sociological characteristics, and subjective reasons. There were 522 (83.5%) participants who gave completely valid responses. Logistic regression analysis was performed to explore the risk factors for willingness of COVID-19 vaccination.

RESULTS

71.5% of participants were willing to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. "worried about contracting COVID-19" (49.6%) and "vaccines have just been introduced and need time to consider" (38.9%) were the main reasons for being willing and unwilling to receive COVID-19 vaccine, respectively. The logistic regression analysis showed that "vaccines are an effective way to prevent diseases" (OR = 5.07, 95%CI: 3.32-7.75), "the price you are willing to pay for non-free vaccines (yuan) (101-500 vs ≤100)″ (OR = 1.87, 95%CI: 1.16-3.02), "per capital monthly income(yuan) (>6000 vs ≤3000)"(OR = 2.13, 95%CI: 1.03-4.41), and "self- assessed health status (Good vs Bad)″ (OR = 1.71, 95%CI: 1.01-2.90) were the main risk factors for outpatients to be willing to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

The willingness of Chinese outpatients to receive COVID-19 vaccine was not high. The government should do more to increase publicity of knowledge about COVID-19 vaccine thus increasing willingness to vaccinate, and provide free vaccine to eliminate the cost impact.

Modeling Poliovirus Surveillance and Immunization Campaign Quality Monitoring Costs for Pakistan and Afghanistan for 2019-2023

Background

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Strategic Plan for 2019-2023 includes commitments to monitor the quality of immunization campaigns using lot quality assurance sampling surveys (LQAS) and to support poliovirus surveillance in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Methods

We analyzed LQAS and poliovirus surveillance data between 2016 and 2020, which included both acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) case-based detection and the continued expansion of environmental surveillance (ES). Using updated estimates for unit costs, we explore the costs of different options for future poliovirus monitoring and surveillance for Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Results

The relative value of the information provided by campaign quality monitoring and surveillance remains uncertain and depends on the design, implementation, and performance of the systems. Prospective immunization campaign quality monitoring (through LQAS) and poliovirus surveillance will require tens of millions of dollars each year for the foreseeable future for Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Conclusions

LQAS campaign monitoring as currently implemented in Pakistan and Afghanistan provides limited and potentially misleading information about immunization quality. AFP surveillance in Pakistan and Afghanistan provides the most reliable evidence of transmission, whereas ES provides valuable supplementary information about the extent of transmission in the catchment areas represented at the time of sample collection.

Updated characterization of poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan and the impacts of different outbreak response vaccine options

Background

Pakistan and Afghanistan remain the only reservoirs of wild poliovirus transmission. Prior modeling suggested that before the COVID-19 pandemic, plans to stop the transmission of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) and persistent serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) did not appear on track to succeed.

Methods

We updated an existing poliovirus transmission and Sabin-strain oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) evolution model for Pakistan and Afghanistan to characterize the impacts of immunization disruptions and restrictions on human interactions (i.e., population mixing) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We also consider different options for responding to outbreaks and for preventive supplementary immunization activities (SIAs).

Results

The modeling suggests that with some resumption of activities in the fall of 2020 to respond to cVDPV2 outbreaks and full resumption on January 1, 2021 of all polio immunization activities to pre-COVID-19 levels, Pakistan and Afghanistan would remain off-track for stopping all transmission through 2023 without improvements in quality.

Conclusions

Using trivalent OPV (tOPV) for SIAs instead of serotype 2 monovalent OPV (mOPV2) offers substantial benefits for ending the transmission of both WPV1 and cVDPV2, because tOPV increases population immunity for both serotypes 1 and 2 while requiring fewer SIA rounds, when effectively delivered in transmission areas.

Polio Amidst COVID-19 in Pakistan: What are the Efforts Being Made and Challenges at Hand?

Poliomyelitis, a crippling viral disease, has been affecting many children in Pakistan despite the numerous efforts that have been taken to curb its spread. The COVID-19 pandemic has halted mass polio vaccination campaigns globally, including Pakistan, resulting in a resurgence of new cases. Pakistan managed to flatten the COVID-19 curve from July to October that made three immunization drives possible, but the COVID-19 cases are on the rise again which can again complicate the polio situation in the country if left unmonitored. The efforts of Pakistan have been effective with no significant rise in polio cases in 2020 as compared with 2019. We discuss the numerous challenges faced by the polio eradication program in Pakistan. To help eliminate polio, Pakistan needs to enhance its efforts in the struggle against polio with the same zeal and stringency used to flatten the curve of COVID-19 in these challenging times.

Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication

INTRODUCTION

Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame.

AREAS COVERED

This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations.

EXPERT OPINION

Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.

The Use of Test-negative Controls to Monitor Vaccine Effectiveness: A Systematic Review of Methodology

BACKGROUND

The test-negative design is an increasingly popular approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) due to its efficiency. This review aims to examine published test-negative design studies of VE and to explore similarities and differences in methodological choices for different diseases and vaccines.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Web of Science, and Medline, for studies reporting the effectiveness of any vaccines using a test-negative design. We screened titles and abstracts and reviewed full texts to identify relevant articles. We created a standardized form for each included article to extract information on the pathogen of interest, vaccine(s) being evaluated, study setting, clinical case definition, choices of cases and controls, and statistical approaches used to estimate VE.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 348 articles, including studies on VE against influenza virus (n = 253), rotavirus (n = 48), pneumococcus (n = 24), and nine other pathogens. Clinical case definitions used to enroll patients were similar by pathogens of interest but the sets of symptoms that defined them varied substantially. Controls could be those testing negative for the pathogen of interest, those testing positive for nonvaccine type of the pathogen of interest, or a subset of those testing positive for alternative pathogens. Most studies controlled for age, calendar time, and comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights similarities and differences in the application of the test-negative design that deserve further examination. If vaccination reduces disease severity in breakthrough infections, particular care must be taken in interpreting vaccine effectiveness estimates from test-negative design studies.

Poliovirus immunity among children under five years-old in accessible areas of Afghanistan, 2013

BACKGROUND

Afghanistan remains among the three countries with endemic wild poliovirus transmission, and high population immunity levels are required to interrupt transmission and prevent outbreaks. Surveillance and vaccination of children in Afghanistan have been challenging due to security issues limiting accessibility in certain areas.

METHODS

A serosurvey was conducted in 2013 within accessible enumeration areas (EAs) among children aged <5 years using samples collected for a national micronutrient assessment survey to assess poliovirus immunity in Afghanistan. Of 21194 total EAs in Afghanistan, 107 were inaccessible and therefore were excluded from the sampling frame.

RESULTS

Population immunity was high overall but varied for the poliovirus serotypes, and was lowest for type 3 (95% [95% CI: 93%, 96%]) compared to type 1 (99% [95% CI:97%, 99%]) and type 2 (98% [95% CI:96%, 99%]). The proportion of the population immune to all three types was 93% (95% CI: 91%, 95%), and the proportion seronegative for all three types was 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2%, 1.7%).

CONCLUSION

Except for regional differences in immunity to type 3 virus, there were no other apparent differences in seroprevalence by region or by any of the demographic or nutritional characteristics assessed in this study. The study was not powered to provide provincial level seroprevalence estimates, but Paktika Province, in the South region, had the largest proportion of seronegative specimens for type 1 (4 seronegative of 17 serum specimens compared to 14 seronegative of 673 for the remainder of the areas). Among accessible children in Afghanistan, seroprevalence of antibodies to poliovirus was high, with most seroprevalence reported at 95% or greater. Despite high seroprevalence in areas assessed in this study, the continued detection of poliovirus cases in the South and East regions indicate that overall regional vaccination coverage and performance is not sufficient to stop polio transmission.

Insecurity, polio vaccination rates, and polio incidence in northwest Pakistan

Pakistan is one of three countries in which endemic transmission of poliovirus has never been stopped. Insecurity is often cited but poorly studied as a barrier to eradicating polio. We analyzed routinely collected health data from 32 districts of northwest Pakistan and constructed an index of insecurity based on journalistic reports of the monthly number of deaths and injuries resulting from conflict-related security incidents. The primary outcomes were the monthly incidence of paralytic polio cases within each district between 2007 and 2014 and the polio vaccination percentage from 666 district-level vaccination campaigns between 2007 and 2009, targeting ∼5.7 million children. Multilevel Poisson regression controlling for time and district fixed effects was used to model the association between insecurity, vaccinator access, vaccination rates, and polio incidence. The number of children inaccessible to vaccinators was 19.7% greater (95% CI: 19.2-20.2%), and vaccination rates were 5.3% lower (95% CI: 5.2-5.3%) in "high-insecurity" campaigns compared with "secure" campaigns. The unadjusted mean vaccination rate was 96.3% (SD = 8.6) in secure campaigns and 88.3% (SD = 19.2) in high-insecurity campaigns. Polio incidence was 73.0% greater (95% CI: 30-131%) during high-insecurity months (unadjusted mean = 0.13 cases per million people, SD = 0.71) compared with secure months (unadjusted mean = 1.23 cases per million people, SD = 4.28). Thus, insecurity was associated with reduced vaccinator access, reduced polio vaccination, and increased polio incidence in northwest Pakistan. These findings demonstrate that insecurity is an important obstacle to global polio eradication.

Spatial model for risk prediction and sub-national prioritization to aid poliovirus eradication in Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Pakistan is one of only three countries where poliovirus circulation remains endemic. For the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program, identifying high risk districts is essential to target interventions and allocate limited resources.

METHODS

Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework we developed a spatial Poisson hurdle model to jointly model the probability of one or more paralytic polio cases, and the number of cases that would be detected in the event of an outbreak. Rates of underimmunization, routine immunization, and population immunity, as well as seasonality and a history of cases were used to project future risk of cases.

RESULTS

The expected number of cases in each district in a 6-month period was predicted using indicators from the previous 6-months and the estimated coefficients from the model. The model achieves an average of 90% predictive accuracy as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, for the past 3 years of cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of poliovirus has decreased dramatically in many of the key reservoir areas in Pakistan. The results of this model have been used to prioritize sub-national areas in Pakistan to receive additional immunization activities, additional monitoring, or other special interventions.

Risk factors and short-term projections for serotype-1 poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan: A spatiotemporal analysis

BACKGROUND

Pakistan currently provides a substantial challenge to global polio eradication, having contributed to 73% of reported poliomyelitis in 2015 and 54% in 2016. A better understanding of the risk factors and movement patterns that contribute to poliovirus transmission across Pakistan would support evidence-based planning for mass vaccination campaigns.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We fit mixed-effects logistic regression models to routine surveillance data recording the presence of poliomyelitis associated with wild-type 1 poliovirus in districts of Pakistan over 6-month intervals between 2010 to 2016. To accurately capture the force of infection (FOI) between districts, we compared 6 models of population movement (adjacency, gravity, radiation, radiation based on population density, radiation based on travel times, and mobile-phone based). We used the best-fitting model (based on the Akaike Information Criterion [AIC]) to produce 6-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence. The odds of observing poliomyelitis decreased with improved routine or supplementary (campaign) immunisation coverage (multivariable odds ratio [OR] = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.84; and OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, respectively, for each 10% increase in coverage) and increased with a higher rate of reporting non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26 for a 1-unit increase in non-polio AFP per 100,000 persons aged <15 years). Estimated movement of poliovirus-infected individuals was associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis, with the radiation model of movement providing the best fit to the data. Six-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence by district for 2013-2016 showed good predictive ability (area under the curve range: 0.76-0.98). However, although the best-fitting movement model (radiation) was a significant determinant of poliomyelitis incidence, it did not improve the predictive ability of the multivariable model. Overall, in Pakistan the risk of polio cases was predicted to reduce between July-December 2016 and January-June 2017. The accuracy of the model may be limited by the small number of AFP cases in some districts.

CONCLUSIONS

Spatiotemporal variation in immunization performance and population movement patterns are important determinants of historical poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan; however, movement dynamics were less influential in predicting future cases, at a time when the polio map is shrinking. Results from the regression models we present are being used to help plan vaccination campaigns and transit vaccination strategies in Pakistan.

Measuring polio immunity to plan immunization activities

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Reliability and comparability of reported polio vaccine dose histories are studied.

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In many areas, reported doses have a weak relationship to immunization activities.

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Data quality may distort risk assessment and immunization activity allocation.

•

Alternative data should be considered for planning polio immunization activities.

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative is closer than ever to achieving a polio-free world. Immunization activities must still be carried out in non-endemic countries to maintain population immunity at levels which will stop poliovirus from spreading if it is re-introduced from still-infected areas. In areas where there is no active transmission of poliovirus, programs must rely on surrogate indicators of population immunity to determine the appropriate immunization activities, typically caregiver-reported vaccination history obtained from non-polio acute flaccid paralysis patients identified through polio surveillance. We used regression models to examine the relationship between polio vaccination campaigns and caregiver-reported polio vaccination history. We find that in many countries, vaccination campaigns have a surprisingly weak impact on these commonly used indicators. We conclude that alternative criteria and data, such as routine immunization indicators from vaccination records or household surveys, should be considered for planning polio vaccination campaigns, and that validation of such surrogate indicators is necessary if they are to be used as the basis for program planning and risk assessment. We recommend that the GPEI and similar organizations consider or continue devoting additional resources to rigorously study population immunity and campaign effectiveness in at-risk countries.

Eradicating polio in Pakistan: an analysis of the challenges and solutions to this security and health issue

Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in 1988 the global incidence of poliomyelitis has fallen by nearly 99 %. From a situation where wild type poliovirus was endemic in 125 countries across five continents, transmission is now limited to regions of just three countries – Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria. A sharp increase in Pakistan’s poliomyelitis cases in 2014 prompted the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee to declare the situation a ‘public health emergency of international concern’. Global polio eradication hinges on Pakistan’s ability to address the religious, political and socioeconomic barriers to immunisation; including discrepancies in vaccine coverage, a poor health infrastructure, and conflict in polio-endemic regions of the country. This analysis provides an overview of the GPEI, focusing on the historical and contemporary challenges facing Pakistan’s polio eradication programme and the impact of conflict and insecurity, and sheds light on strategies to combat vaccine hesitancy, engage local communities and build on recent progress towards polio eradication in Pakistan.

The effect of azithromycin on the immunogenicity of oral poliovirus vaccine: a double-blind randomised placebo-controlled trial in seronegative Indian infants

BACKGROUND

Oral poliovirus vaccine is less immunogenic and effective in low-income countries than in high-income countries, similarly to other oral vaccines. The high prevalence of intestinal pathogens and associated environmental enteropathy has been proposed to explain this problem. Because administration of an antibiotic has the potential to resolve environmental enteropathy and clear bacterial pathogens, we aimed to assess whether antibiotics would improve oral poliovirus vaccine immunogenicity.

METHODS

We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial of the effect of azithromycin on the immunogenicity of serotype-3 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine given to healthy infants living in 14 blocks of Vellore district, India. Infants were eligible to participate if they were 6-11 months old, available for the study duration, and lacked serum neutralising antibodies to serotype-3 poliovirus. Infants were randomly assigned (1:1) at enrolment to receive oral 10 mg/kg azithromycin or placebo once daily for 3 days, followed by serotype-3 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine on day 14. The primary outcome was detection of serum neutralising antibodies to serotype-3 poliovirus at a dilution of one in eight or more on day 35 and was assessed in the per-protocol population (ie, all those who received azithromycin or placebo, oral poliovirus vaccine, and provided a blood sample according to the study protocol). Safety outcomes were assessed in all infants enrolled in the study. The trial is registered with the Clinical Trials Registry India, number CTRI/2014/05/004588.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 5, 2014, and March 21, 2015, 754 infants were randomly assigned: 376 to receive azithromycin and 378 to placebo. Of these, 348 (93%) of 376 in the azithromycin group and 357 (94%) of 378 infants in the placebo group completed the study per protocol. In the azithromycin group, 175 (50%) seroconverted to serotype-3 poliovirus compared with 192 (54%) in the placebo group (risk ratio 0·94, 95% CI 0·81-1·08; p=0·366). Azithromycin reduced faecal biomarkers of environmental enteropathy (calprotectin, myeloperoxidase, α1-antitrypsin) and the prevalence of bacterial but not viral or eukaryotic pathogens. Viral pathogens were associated with lower seroconversion. Three serious adverse events were reported (two in the azithromycin group and one in the placebo group), but none was considered related to the study interventions.

INTERPRETATION

Azithromycin did not improve the immunogenicity of oral poliovirus vaccine despite reducing biomarkers of environmental enteropathy and the prevalence of pathogenic intestinal bacteria. Viral interference and innate antiviral immune mechanisms might be more important determinants of the immunogenicity of live-virus oral vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Crippling Violence: Conflict and Incident Polio in Afghanistan

BACKGROUND

Designing effective public health campaigns in areas of armed conflict requires a nuanced understanding of how violence impacts the epidemiology of the disease in question.

METHODS

We examine the geographical relationship between violence (represented by the location of detonated Improvised Explosive Devices) and polio incidence by generating maps of IEDs and polio incidence during 2010, and by comparing the mean number of IED detonations in polio high-risk districts with non polio high-risk districts during 2004-2009.

RESULTS

We demonstrate a geographic relationship between IED violence and incident polio. Districts that have high-risk for polio have highly statistically significantly greater mean numbers of IEDs than non polio high-risk districts (p-values 0.0010-0.0404).

CONCLUSIONS

The geographic relationship between armed conflict and polio incidence provides valuable insights as to how to plan a vaccination campaign in violent contexts, and allows us to anticipate incident polio in the regions of armed conflict. Such information permits vaccination planners to engage interested armed combatants to co-develop strategies to mitigate the effects of violence on polio.

A New Method for Estimating the Coverage of Mass Vaccination Campaigns Against Poliomyelitis From Surveillance Data

Mass vaccination campaigns with the oral poliovirus vaccine targeting children aged <5 years are a critical component of the global poliomyelitis eradication effort. Monitoring the coverage of these campaigns is essential to allow corrective action, but current approaches are limited by their cross-sectional nature, nonrandom sampling, reporting biases, and accessibility issues. We describe a new Bayesian framework using data augmentation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate variation in vaccination coverage from children's vaccination histories investigated during surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis. We tested the method using simulated data with at least 200 cases and were able to detect undervaccinated groups if they exceeded 10% of all children and temporal changes in coverage of ±10% with greater than 90% sensitivity. Application of the method to data from Pakistan for 2010–2011 identified undervaccinated groups within the Balochistan/Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions, as well as temporal changes in coverage. The sizes of these groups are consistent with the multiple challenges faced by the program in these regions as a result of conflict and insecurity. Application of this new method to routinely collected data can be a useful tool for identifying poorly performing areas and assisting in eradication efforts.

Early priming with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) and intradermal fractional dose IPV administered by a microneedle device: A randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) introduction and phased oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation are essential for eradication of polio.

METHODS

Healthy 6-week old infants in Bangladesh were randomized to one of five study arms: receipt of trivalent OPV (tOPV) or bivalent OPV (bOPV) at ages 6, 10 and 14 weeks, intramuscular IPV or intradermal one-fifth fractional dose IPV (f-IPV) at ages 6 and 14 weeks, or f-IPV at ages 6 and 14 weeks with bOPV at age 10 weeks (f-IPV/bOPV). All participants received tOPV at age 18 weeks.

RESULTS

Of 975 infants randomized, 95% (922) completed follow-up. Type 1 seroconversion after 3 doses at 6, 10 and 14 weeks was higher with bOPV compared with tOPV (99% vs 94%, p=0.019). Seroconversions to types 1 and 3 after 2 IPV doses at ages 6 and 14 weeks were no different than after 3 doses of tOPV or bOPV at ages 6, 10 and 14 weeks. A priming response, seroconversion 1 week after IPV at 14 weeks among those who did not seroconvert after IPV at 6 weeks, was observed against poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 in 91%, 84% and 97%, respectively. Compared with IPV, f-IPV failed non-inferiority tests for seroconversion with 1 or 2 doses and priming after 1 dose.

DISCUSSION

The findings demonstrate considerable priming with IPV at age 6 weeks, comparable immunogenicity of tOPV and bOPV, and inferior immunogenicity of one-fifth f-IPV compared with IPV. If IPV induced priming at age 6 weeks is similar to that at age 14 weeks, IPV could be administered at a younger age and possibly with a higher coverage.

A space-time analysis of the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary: a resource for analyzing the conflict-health nexus

Background

Although it is widely acknowledged that areas of conflict are associated with a high health burden, from a geospatial perspective it is difficult to establish these patterns at fine scales because of a lack of data. The release of the “WikiLeaks” Afghan War Diary (AWD) provides an interesting opportunity to advance analysis and theory into this interrelationship.

Methods

This paper will apply two different space time analyses to identify patterns of improvised explosive devices (IED) detonations for the period of 2004 to 2009 in Afghanistan.

Results

There is considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in IED explosions, with concentrations often following transportation links. The results are framed in terms of a resource for subsequent analyses to other existing health research in Afghanistan. To facilitate this, in our discussion we present a Google Earth file of overlapping rates that can be distributed to any researcher interested in combining his/her fine scale health data with a similarly granular layer of violence.

Conclusion

The release of the AWD presents a previously unavailable opportunity to consider how spatially detailed data about violence can be incorporated into understanding, and predicting, health related spillover effects. The AWD can enrich previous research conducted on Afghanistan, and provide a justification for future “official” data sharing at appropriately fine scales.

Seroprevalence rate of Poliovirus antibodies among the Healthy and Protein Energy Malnutrition children

Objective:

To study the association between Protein energy malnutrition and polio-specific immunoglobulin G antibodies production among children in Gadap Town Karachi, Pakistan.

Methods:

Comparative cross sectional survey conducted at fixed EPI center and Pediatric OPD of a tertiary care hospital Karachi. Children were selected by convenient sampling method during the period from 17 March to 17 May 2013. It was ensured that they must have received more than seven oral polio vaccine doses as eligibility criteria for the study. A total of 170 blood samples were collected and tested for the presence of polio-specific IgG antibodies using Poliomyelitis IgG ELISA Test Kit produced.

Results:

Statistically significant relation was found between PEM and IgG antibodies production OR (P = 0.000). Overall Seroprevalence rate among the study population was 98.8%, PEM group 97.6% and healthy group 100%.

Conclusion:

The study demonstrated that there is a need to focus on the protein energy malnutrition among the children as an immunization strategy for the 100% seroprevalence rate in all population against polio in Pakistan.

Effectiveness of oral polio vaccination against paralytic poliomyelitis: a matched case-control study in Somalia

BACKGROUND

After the last case of type 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) was reported in 2007, Somalia experienced another outbreak of WPV1 (189 cases) in 2013.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, matched case-control study to evaluate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of oral polio vaccine (OPV). We retrieved information from the Somalia Surveillance Database. A case was defined as any case of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) with virological confirmation of WPV1. We selected two groups of controls for each case: non-polio AFP cases ("NPAFP controls") matched to WPV1 cases by age, date of onset of paralysis and region; and asymptomatic "neighborhood controls," matched by age. Using conditional logistic regression, we estimated the VE of OPV as (1-odds ratio)×100.

RESULT

We matched 99 WPV cases with 99 NPAFP controls and 134 WPV1 cases with 268 neighborhood controls. Using NPAFP controls, the overall VE was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37-86), 59% (2-83) among 1-3 dose recipients, 77% (95% CI, 46-91) among ≥4 dose recipients. In neighborhood controls, the overall VE was 95% (95% CI, 84-98), 92% (72-98) among 1-3 dose recipients, and 97% (89-99) among ≥4 dose recipients. When the analysis was limited to cases and controls ≤24 months old, the overall VE in NPAFP and neighborhood controls was 95% (95% CI, 65-99) and 97% (95% CI, 76-100), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals who were fully vaccinated with OPV, vaccination was effective at preventing WPV1 in Somalia.

Zinc supplementation fails to increase the immunogenicity of oral poliovirus vaccine: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Polio eradication remains a challenge in Pakistan and the causes for the failure to eradicate poliomyelitis are complex. Undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, especially zinc deficiency, are major public health problems in Pakistan and could potentially affect the response to enteric vaccines, including oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV).

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of zinc supplementation among infants on immune response to oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV).

METHODS

A double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled trial was conducted in newborns (aged 0-14 days). Subjects were assigned to either receive 10mg of zinc or placebo supplementation daily for 18 weeks. Both groups received OPV doses at birth, at 6 weeks, 10 weeks and 14 weeks. Data was collected on prior immunization status, diarrheal episodes, breastfeeding practices and anthropometric measurements at recruitment and at 6 and 18 weeks. Blood samples were similarly collected to determine the antibody response to OPV and for micronutrient analysis. Logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between seroconversion and zinc status.

RESULTS

Overall, 404 subjects were recruited. At recruitment, seropositivity was already high for poliovirus (PV) serotype 1 (zinc: 91.1%; control: 90.5%) and PV2 (90.0%; 92.7%), with lower estimates for PV3 (70.0%; 64.8%). By week 18, the proportion of subjects with measured zinc levels in the normal range (i.e. ≥60 μg/dL) was significantly greater in the intervention group compared to the control group (71.9%; 27.4%; p<0.001). No significant difference in seroconversion was demonstrated between the groups for PV1, PV2, or PV3.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no effect of zinc supplementation on OPV immunogenicity. These conclusions were confirmed when restricting the analysis to those with measured higher zinc levels.

Detecting differential transmissibilities that affect the size of self-limited outbreaks

Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying [0 < R eff < 1) that correlate with transmissibility. Our analysis is based on a branching process model that permits statistical comparison of both the strength and heterogeneity of transmission for two distinct types of cases. Our approach provides insight into a variety of scenarios, including the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Arabian peninsula, measles in North America, pre-eradication smallpox in Europe, and human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When applied to chain size data for MERS-CoV transmission before 2014, our method indicates that despite an apparent trend towards improved control, there is not enough statistical evidence to indicate that R eff has declined with time. Meanwhile, chain size data for measles in the United States and Canada reveal statistically significant geographic variation in R eff, suggesting that the timing and coverage of national vaccination programs, as well as contact tracing procedures, may shape the size distribution of observed infection clusters. Infection source data for smallpox suggests that primary cases transmitted more than secondary cases, and provides a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of control interventions. Human monkeypox, on the other hand, does not show evidence of differential transmission between animals in contact with humans, primary cases, or secondary cases, which assuages the concern that social mixing can amplify transmission by secondary cases. Lastly, we evaluate surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination. Our studies lay the foundation for future investigations regarding how infection source, vaccination status or other putative transmissibility traits may affect self-limited transmission.

Predictive spatial risk model of poliovirus to aid prioritization and hasten eradication in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

One of the challenges facing the Global Polio Eradication Initiative is efficiently directing limited resources, such as specially trained personnel, community outreach activities, and satellite vaccinator tracking, to the most at-risk areas to maximize the impact of interventions. A validated predictive model of wild poliovirus circulation would greatly inform prioritization efforts by accurately forecasting areas at greatest risk, thus enabling the greatest effect of program interventions.

METHODS

Using Nigerian acute flaccid paralysis surveillance data from 2004-2013, we developed a spatial hierarchical Poisson hurdle model fitted within a Bayesian framework to study historical polio caseload patterns and forecast future circulation of type 1 and 3 wild poliovirus within districts in Nigeria. A Bayesian temporal smoothing model was applied to address data sparsity underlying estimates of covariates at the district level.

RESULTS

We find that calculated vaccine-derived population immunity is significantly negatively associated with the probability and number of wild poliovirus case(s) within a district. Recent case information is significantly positively associated with probability of a case, but not the number of cases. We used lagged indicators and coefficients from the fitted models to forecast reported cases in the subsequent six-month periods. Over the past three years, the average predictive ability is 86 ± 2% and 85 ± 4% for wild poliovirus type 1 and 3, respectively. Interestingly, the predictive accuracy of historical transmission patterns alone is equivalent (86 ± 2% and 84 ± 4% for type 1 and 3, respectively). We calculate uncertainty in risk ranking to inform assessments of changes in rank between time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The model developed in this study successfully predicts districts at risk for future wild poliovirus cases in Nigeria. The highest predicted district risk was 12.8 WPV1 cases in 2006, while the lowest district risk was 0.001 WPV1 cases in 2013. Model results have been used to direct the allocation of many different interventions, including political and religious advocacy visits. This modeling approach could be applied to other vaccine preventable diseases for use in other control and elimination programs.

Identifying postelimination trends for the introduction and transmissibility of measles in the United States

The continued elimination of measles requires accurate assessment of its epidemiology and a critical evaluation of how its incidence is changing with time. National surveillance of measles in the United States between 2001 and 2011 provides data on the number of measles introductions and the size of the resulting transmission chains. These data allow inference of the effective reproduction number, Reff, and the probability of an outbreak occurring. Our estimate of 0.52 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.60) for Reff is smaller than prior results. Our findings are relatively insensitive to the possibility that as few as 75% of cases were detected. Although we confirm that measles remains eliminated, we identify an increasing trend in the number of measles cases with time. We show that this trend is likely attributable to an increase in the number of disease introductions rather than a change in the transmissibility of measles. However, we find that transmissibility may increase substantially if vaccine coverage drops by as little as 1%. Our general approach of characterizing the case burden of measles is applicable to the epidemiologic assessment of other weakly transmitting or vaccine-controlled pathogens that are either at risk of emerging or on the brink of elimination.

Key issues in the persistence of poliomyelitis in Nigeria: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

The completion of poliomyelitis eradication is a global emergency for public health. In 2012, more than 50% of the world's cases occurred in Nigeria following an unanticipated surge in incidence. We aimed to quantitatively analyse the key factors sustaining transmission of poliomyelitis in Nigeria and to calculate clinical efficacy estimates for the oral poliovirus vaccines (OPV) currently in use.

METHODS

We used acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance data from Nigeria collected between January, 2001, and December, 2012, to estimate the clinical efficacies of all four OPVs in use and combined this with vaccination coverage to estimate the effect of the introduction of monovalent and bivalent OPV on vaccine-induced serotype-specific population immunity. Vaccine efficacy was determined using a case-control study with CIs based on bootstrap resampling. Vaccine efficacy was also estimated separately for north and south Nigeria, by age of the children, and by year. Detailed 60-day follow-up data were collected from children with confirmed poliomyelitis and were used to assess correlates of vaccine status. We also quantitatively assessed the epidemiology of poliomyelitis and programme performance and considered the reasons for the high vaccine refusal rate along with risk factors for a given local government area reporting a case.

FINDINGS

Against serotype 1, both monovalent OPV (median 32.1%, 95% CI 26.1-38.1) and bivalent OPV (29.5%, 20.1-38.4) had higher clinical efficacy than trivalent OPV (19.4%, 16.1-22.8). Corresponding data for serotype 3 were 43.2% (23.1-61.1) and 23.8% (5.3-44.9) compared with 18.0% (14.1-22.1). Combined with increases in coverage, this factor has boosted population immunity in children younger than age 36 months to a record high (64-69% against serotypes 1 and 3). Vaccine efficacy in northern states was estimated to be significantly lower than in southern states (p≤0.05). The proportion of cases refusing vaccination decreased from 37-72% in 2008 to 21-51% in 2012 for routine and supplementary immunisation, and most caregivers cited ignorance of either vaccine importance or availability as the main reason for missing routine vaccinations (32.1% and 29.6% of cases, respectively). Multiple regression analyses highlighted associations between the age of the mother, availability of OPV at health facilities, and the primary source of health information and the probability of receiving OPV (all p<0.05).

INTERPRETATION

Although high refusal rates, low OPV campaign awareness, and heterogeneous population immunity continued to support poliomyelitis transmission in Nigeria at the end of 2012, overall population immunity had improved due to new OPV formulations and improvements in programme delivery.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Vaccine Modeling Initiative, Royal Society.

The final stages of the global eradication of poliomyelitis

The global incidence of poliomyelitis has dropped by more than 99 per cent since the governments of the world committed to eradication in 1988. One of the three serotypes of wild poliovirus has been eradicated and the remaining two serotypes are limited to just a small number of endemic regions. However, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has faced a number of challenges in eradicating the last 1 per cent of wild-virus transmission. The polio endgame has also been complicated by the recognition that vaccination with the oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) must eventually cease because of the risk of outbreaks of vaccine-derived polioviruses. I describe the major challenges to wild poliovirus eradication, focusing on the poor immunogenicity of OPV in lower-income countries, the inherent limitations to the sensitivity and specificity of surveillance, the international spread of poliovirus and resulting outbreaks, and the potential significance of waning intestinal immunity induced by OPV. I then focus on the challenges to eradicating all polioviruses, the problem of vaccine-derived polioviruses and the risk of wild-type or vaccine-derived poliovirus re-emergence after the cessation of oral vaccination. I document the role of research in the GPEI's response to these challenges and ultimately the feasibility of achieving a world without poliomyelitis.

Comparing methods for estimating R0 from the size distribution of subcritical transmission chains

Many diseases exhibit subcritical transmission (i.e. 0<R0<1) so that infections occur as self-limited 'stuttering chains'. Given an ensemble of stuttering chains, information about the number of cases in each chain can be used to infer R0, which is of crucial importance for monitoring the risk that a disease will emerge to establish endemic circulation. However, the challenge of imperfect case detection has led authors to adopt a variety of work-around measures when inferring R0, such as discarding data on isolated cases or aggregating intermediate-sized chains together. Each of these methods has the potential to introduce bias, but a quantitative comparison of these approaches has not been reported. By adapting a model based on a negative binomial offspring distribution that permits a variable degree of transmission heterogeneity, we present a unified analysis of existing R0 estimation methods. Simulation studies show that the degree of transmission heterogeneity, when improperly modeled, can significantly impact the bias of R0 estimation methods designed for imperfect observation. These studies also highlight the importance of isolated cases in assessing whether an estimation technique is consistent with observed data. Analysis of data from measles outbreaks shows that likelihood scores are highest for models that allow a flexible degree of transmission heterogeneity. Aggregating intermediate sized chains often has similar performance to analyzing a complete chain size distribution. However, truncating isolated cases is beneficial only when surveillance systems clearly favor full observation of large chains but not small chains. Meanwhile, if data on the type and proportion of cases that are unobserved were known, we demonstrate that maximum likelihood inference of R0 could be adjusted accordingly. This motivates the need for future empirical and theoretical work to quantify observation error and incorporate relevant mechanisms into stuttering chain models used to estimate transmission parameters.

Hurdles to the global antipolio campaign in Pakistan: an outline of the current status and future prospects to achieve a polio free world

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative to eradicate polio completely by the year 2000 has been successful, except for three endemic and some non-endemic countries. Pakistan, one of the three endemic polio reservoirs, is posing a serious threat to the success of the initiative. Currently, the expanded programme on immunisation has been geared to win the race over polio virus in Pakistan. After the remarkable decrease in polio cases from 198 in 2011 to only 58 in 2012, Pakistan seemed to be at the verge of success. However, hurdles continue to retard the campaign. The war against terrorism, misconceptions about polio vaccine, religious misinterpretations, frustration among vaccinators, lack of awareness, social considerations, natural calamities, inaccessibility, and inefficient vaccines and so on are continually rupturing the foundations of the worldwide initiative in the country. Weak health management is found at the hub of majority of the challenges. Stricter policies, well managed and supervised plans and strategic actions, risk analysis and enhanced communication may help giving the final punch to polio virus in the country. Analysis suggested that there is some literature available on the challenges to polio elimination, yet there is not a single publication up to date that considers all the possible hurdles in a single manuscript. This paper sorts out the breaches that hamper the goal of eliminating polio from Pakistan. We have evaluated all the possible barriers and explained them with a perspective that will help develop area specific strategies against polio virus and thus eradicate polio virus from the world.

Inference of R(0) and transmission heterogeneity from the size distribution of stuttering chains

For many infectious disease processes such as emerging zoonoses and vaccine-preventable diseases, [Formula: see text] and infections occur as self-limited stuttering transmission chains. A mechanistic understanding of transmission is essential for characterizing the risk of emerging diseases and monitoring spatio-temporal dynamics. Thus methods for inferring [Formula: see text] and the degree of heterogeneity in transmission from stuttering chain data have important applications in disease surveillance and management. Previous researchers have used chain size distributions to infer [Formula: see text], but estimation of the degree of individual-level variation in infectiousness (as quantified by the dispersion parameter, [Formula: see text]) has typically required contact tracing data. Utilizing branching process theory along with a negative binomial offspring distribution, we demonstrate how maximum likelihood estimation can be applied to chain size data to infer both [Formula: see text] and the dispersion parameter that characterizes heterogeneity. While the maximum likelihood value for [Formula: see text] is a simple function of the average chain size, the associated confidence intervals are dependent on the inferred degree of transmission heterogeneity. As demonstrated for monkeypox data from the Democratic Republic of Congo, this impacts when a statistically significant change in [Formula: see text] is detectable. In addition, by allowing for superspreading events, inference of [Formula: see text] shifts the threshold above which a transmission chain should be considered anomalously large for a given value of [Formula: see text] (thus reducing the probability of false alarms about pathogen adaptation). Our analysis of monkeypox also clarifies the various ways that imperfect observation can impact inference of transmission parameters, and highlights the need to quantitatively evaluate whether observation is likely to significantly bias results.