Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Association between education and disability-free life expectancy among Japanese older people: The Ohsaki Cohort 2006 study

BACKGROUND

Higher education level is associated with longer disability-free life expectancy (DFLE). However, evidence is scarce regarding factors that can contribute to eliminating inequality in DFLE according to education level. This study aimed to clarify the association between education and DFLE and estimate whether DFLE in people with lower education may increase to the same level as that in people with higher education through social participation.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 13,849 Japanese people aged 65 years and older who participated in a 13-year prospective study. At baseline, we collected information on education levels (low, middle, or high) and social participation. DFLE was defined as the average duration people expect to live without disability. To calculate DFLE for each education level group, the multistate life table method was employed using a Markov model.

RESULTS

At the age of 65 years, DFLE (95 % confidence interval [CI]) in women with low education was 21.3 years (20.8-21.8) without social participation and 24.3 (23.8-24.9) with social participation. In the middle education group, DFLE was 22.1 (21.6-22.6) without social participation and 25.0 (24.6-25.5) with social participation. In the high education group, DFLE was 22.1 (21.5-22.8) without social participation and 25.5 (25.0-26.0) with social participation. Similar results were found for men.

CONCLUSIONS

DFLE in people with low or middle education with social participation was almost the same as that in those with high education with social participation, suggesting the possibility that disparities in DFLE by education level could be offset by promoting social participation in older adults.

Trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality by BMI levels in England, 2004-2019: a population-based primary care records study

Background

In the UK, obesity rates are rising concurrently with declining mortality rates. Yet, there is limited research on the shifts of mortality trends and the impact of obesity-related mortality. In this study, we examine mortality trends and the cause-specific proportional composition of deaths by body mass index.

Methods

We used primary healthcare records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 2004 and 2019, linked to national death registration data. There were 880,683 individuals with at least one BMI measurement and a 5-year survival period. We used discrete Poisson regression and joinpoint analysis to estimate the all-cause and cause-specific mortality rate and significance of the trends.

Findings

Between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019, all-cause mortality rates declined in the obese category by 3% on average per year (from 23.3 to 14.6 deaths per 1000 person years) in males and 2% on average per year (from 12.5 to 9.4 deaths per 1000 person years) in females. Cardiovascular disease mortality declined 7% on average per year (from 12.4 to 4.4 deaths per 1000 person years) in males and 4% on average per year (from 5.5 to 3.0 deaths per 1000 person years) in females in the obese category. Increases in mortality rates from neurological conditions occurred in all BMI categories in males and females. By the end of the study, cancers became the primary contributor of death in males in all BMI categories and females in the overweight category.

Interpretation

There have been significant declines in all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in males and females, leading to a diversification of mortality, with cancers contributing to the highest proportion of deaths and increases in causes such as neurological and respiratory conditions. Further screening, prevention, and treatment implementation for a broader set of diseases is necessary for continued mortality improvements.

Funding

Imperial College London, Science Foundation Ireland.

Endoplasmic reticulum-resident selenoproteins and their roles in glucose and lipid metabolic disorders

Glucose and lipid metabolic disorders (GLMDs), such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and obesity, are significant public health issues that negatively impact human health. The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) plays a crucial role at the cellular level for lipid and sterol biosynthesis, intracellular calcium storage, and protein post-translational modifications. Imbalance and dysfunction of the ER can affect glucose and lipid metabolism. As an essential trace element, selenium contributes to various human physiological functions mainly through 25 types of selenoproteins (SELENOs). At least 10 SELENOs, with experimental and/or computational evidence, are predominantly found on the ER membrane or within its lumen. Two iodothyronine deiodinases (DIOs), DIO1 and DIO2, regulate the thyroid hormone deiodination in the thyroid and some external thyroid tissues, influencing glucose and lipid metabolism. Most of the other eight members maintain redox homeostasis in the ER. Especially, SELENOF, SELENOM, and SELENOS are involved in unfolded protein responses; SELENOI catalyzes phosphatidylethanolamine synthesis; SELENOK, SELENON, and SELENOT participate in calcium homeostasis regulation; and the biological significance of thioredoxin reductase 3 in the ER remains unexplored despite its established function in the thioredoxin system. This review examines recent research advances regarding ER SELENOs in GLMDs and aims to provide insights on ER-related pathology through SELENOs regulation.

Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Gout is an inflammatory arthritis manifesting as acute episodes of severe joint pain and swelling, which can progress to chronic tophaceous or chronic erosive gout, or both. Here, we present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national estimates for prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to gout by sex, age, and location from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, as well as forecasted prevalence to 2050.

METHODS

Gout prevalence and YLDs from 1990 to 2020 were estimated by drawing on population-based data from 35 countries and claims data from the USA and Taiwan (province of China). Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs due to gout by age, sex, and location. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 with a mixed-effects model.

FINDINGS

In 2020, 55·8 million (95% uncertainty interval 44·4-69·8) people globally had gout, with an age-standardised prevalence of 659·3 (525·4-822·3) per 100 000, an increase of 22·5% (20·9-24·2) since 1990. Globally, the prevalence of gout in 2020 was 3·26 (3·11-3·39) times higher in males than in females and increased with age. The total number of prevalent cases of gout is estimated to reach 95·8 million (81·1-116) in 2050, with population growth being the largest contributor to this increase and only a very small contribution from the forecasted change in gout prevalence. Age-standardised gout prevalence in 2050 is forecast to be 667 (531-830) per 100 000 population. The global age-standardised YLD rate of gout was 20·5 (14·4-28·2) per 100 000 population in 2020. High BMI accounted for 34·3% (27·7-40·6) of YLDs due to gout and kidney dysfunction accounted for 11·8% (9·3-14·2).

INTERPRETATION

Our forecasting model estimates that the number of individuals with gout will increase by more than 70% from 2020 to 2050, primarily due to population growth and ageing. With the association between gout disability and high BMI, dietary and lifestyle modifications focusing on bodyweight reduction are needed at the population level to reduce the burden of gout along with access to interventions to prevent and control flares. Despite the rigour of the standardised GBD methodology and modelling, in many countries, particularly low-income and middle-income countries, estimates are based on modelled rather than primary data and are also lacking severity and disability estimates. We strongly encourage the collection of these data to be included in future GBD iterations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Global burdens of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in children and young adults and predictions to 2040

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the epidemiological trend for nasopharyngeal carcinoma among children and young adults and the disease burden they caused.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. A comprehensive analysis was performed, with age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). And decomposition and frontier analyses were done. Future trends were predicted using Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Globally, there were decreases in the ASIR (EAPC -0.175, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: -0.352 to 0.002), ASMR (EAPC -2.681, 95 % CI: -2.937 to -2.424), and age-standardized DALYs rates (EAPC -2.643, 95 % CI: -2.895 to -2.391). However, the ASIR for males in global (EAPC 0.454, 95 % CI: 0.302 to 0.606), Asia (EAPC 0.782, 95 % CI: 0.610 to 0.954) and America (EAPC 0.448, 95 % CI: 0.379 to 0.517), as well as females in European (EAPC 0.595, 95 % CI: 0.479 to 0.712) and American (EAPC 0.369, 95 % CI: 0.324 to 0.415), showed an increasing trend. The future ASIR per 100,000 will likely show a slight upward trend in 2020 to 2040 (increased from 0.254 to 0.284), particularly among females (increased from 0.177 to 0.206), and a continued decline in ASMR for both sexes (decreased from 0.070 to 0.061).

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, NPC in children and young adults remains a major public health issue, with the global distribution and magnitude of the burden varies markedly, highlighting the need to formulate regional and population-based policies for primary prevention.

Global and regional trends in prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth: Age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and projections until 2049

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to update the relevant epidemiological information of untreated caries in permanent teeth.

METHODS

Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We described temporal trends in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of untreated caries in permanent teeth by gender and region from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to analyze age, period and cohort effects on prevalence, and we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to make projections of prevalence between 2020 and 2049.

RESULTS

The global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth presented a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 (26593.58/105 vs. 25625.53/105), with females exceeding males annually. Negative correlation was observed between ASPR and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. APC analyses showed that net drift was -0.16 % globally and generally below 0 across all SDI regions. The overall global peak in prevalence occurred in the 20-24 years group (36319.99/105), and there was a decrease trend in the overall global period rate ratio (RR). Compared to younger birth cohorts, prior birth cohorts had higher prevalence risks globally and across all SDI regions. Significant upward trends was predicted in the global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth for both genders from 2020 to 2049.

CONCLUSIONS

Age-period-cohort effects exerted a significant impact on the prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth during the study period.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth may increase in the next 30 years by projections. And the disease burden of untreated caries in permanent teeth may be affected by population ageing. It is essential to implement targeted prevention and control policies to disadvantaged groups and attempt to reduce caries inequalities.

Global, regional, and national trends in metabolic risk factor-associated mortality among the working-age population from 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Metabolic diseases contribute significantly to premature mortality worldwide, with increasing burdens observed among the working-age population (WAP). This study assessed global, regional, and national trends in metabolic disorders and associated mortality over three decades in WAP.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study were leveraged to assess global metabolism-associated mortality and six key metabolic risk factors in WAP from 1990-2019. An age-period-cohort model was employed to determine the overall percentage change in mortality.

RESULTS

The 2019 global metabolic risk-related mortality rate in WAP rose significantly by 50.73%, while the age-standardized mortality rate declined by 21.5%. India, China, Indonesia, the USA, and the Russian Federation were the top contributing countries to mortality in WAP, accounting for 51.01% of the total. High systolic blood pressure (HSBP), high body mass index (HBMI), and high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) were the top metabolic risk factors for the highest mortality rates. Adverse trends in HBMI-associated mortality were observed, particularly in lower sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. HFPG-related mortality declined globally but increased in older age groups in lower SDI countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a general decline in metabolic risk-related deaths in WAP, increasing HBMI- and HFPG-related mortality in lower SDI areas poses ongoing public health challenges. Developing nations should prioritize interventions addressing HBMI and HFPG to mitigate mortality risks in WAP.

Levels, trends and inequalities in mortality among 5-19-year-olds in Tanzania: Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance Study (1995-2022)

Background

For the past two decades, health priorities in Tanzania have focussed on children under-five, leaving behind the older children and adolescents (5-19 years). Understanding mortality patterns beyond 5 years is important in bridging a healthy gap between childhood to adulthood. We aimed to estimate mortality levels, trends, and inequalities among 5-19-year-olds using population data from the Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Tanzania and further compare the population level estimates with global estimates.

Methods

Using data from the Magu HDSS from 1995 to 2022, from Kaplan Meir survival probabilities, we computed annual mortality probabilities for ages 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 and determined the average annual rate of change in mortality by fitting the variance weighted least square regression on annual mortality probabilities. We compared 5-19 trends with younger children aged 1-4 years. We further disaggregated mortality by sex, area of residence and wealth tertiles, and we computed age-stratified risk ratios with respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox proportional hazard model to determine inequalities. We further compared population-level estimates in all-cause mortality with global estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and the Global Burden of Disease study by computing the relative differences to the estimates.

Results

Mortality declined steadily among the three age groups from 1995 to 2022, whereby the average annual rate of decline increased with age (2.2%, 2.7%, and 2.9% for 5-9-, 10-14-, and 15-19-year-old age groups, respectively). The pace of this decline was lower than that of younger children aged 1-4 years (4.8% decline). We observed significant mortality inequalities with boys, those residing in rural areas, and those from poorest wealth tertiles lagging behind. While Magu estimates were close to global estimates for the 5-9-year-old age group, we observed divergent results for adolescents (10-19 years), with Magu estimates lying between the global estimates.

Conclusion

The pace of mortality decline was lower for the 5-19-year-old age group compared to younger children, with observable inequalities by socio-demographic characteristics. Determining the burden of disease across different strata is important in the development of evidence-based targeted interventions to address the mortality burden and inequalities in this age group, as it is an important transition period to adulthood.

From Reactive to Proactive - The Future Life Design to Promote Health and Extend the Human Lifespan

Disease treatment and prevention have improved the human lifespan. Current studies on aging, such as the biological clock and senolytic drugs have focused on the medical treatments of various disorders and health maintenance. However, to efficiently extend the human lifespan to its theoretical maximum, medicine can take a further proactive approach and identify the inapparent disorders that affect the gestation, body growth, and reproductive stages of the so-called "healthy" population. The goal is to upgrade the standard health status to a new level by targeting the inapparent disorders. Thus, future research can shift from reaction, response, and prevention to proactive, quality promotion and vigor prolonging; from single disease-oriented to multiple dimension protocol for a healthy body; from treatment of symptom onset to keep away from disorders; and from the healthy aging management to a healthy promotion design beginning at the birth.

Clinicopathological discrepancies in the diagnoses of childhood causes of death in the CHAMPS network: An analysis of antemortem diagnostic inaccuracies

INTRODUCTION

Determining aetiology of severe illness can be difficult, especially in settings with limited diagnostic resources, yet critical for providing life-saving care. Our objective was to describe the accuracy of antemortem clinical diagnoses in young children in high-mortality settings, compared with results of specific postmortem diagnoses obtained from Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS).

METHODS

We analysed data collected during 2016-2022 from seven sites in Africa and South Asia. We compared antemortem clinical diagnoses from clinical records to a reference standard of postmortem diagnoses determined by expert panels at each site who reviewed the results of histopathological and microbiological testing of tissue, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid. We calculated test characteristics and 95% CIs of antemortem clinical diagnostic accuracy for the 10 most common causes of death. We classified diagnostic discrepancies as major and minor, per Goldman criteria later modified by Battle.

RESULTS

CHAMPS enrolled 1454 deceased young children aged 1-59 months during the study period; 881 had available clinical records and were analysed. The median age at death was 11 months (IQR 4-21 months) and 47.3% (n=417) were female. We identified a clinicopathological discrepancy in 39.5% (n=348) of deaths; 82.3% of diagnostic errors were major. The sensitivity of clinician antemortem diagnosis ranged from 26% (95% CI 14.6% to 40.3%) for non-infectious respiratory diseases (eg, aspiration pneumonia, interstitial lung disease, etc) to 82.2% (95% CI 72.7% to 89.5%) for diarrhoeal diseases. Antemortem clinical diagnostic specificity ranged from 75.2% (95% CI 72.1% to 78.2%) for diarrhoeal diseases to 99.0% (95% CI 98.1% to 99.6%) for HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Antemortem clinical diagnostic errors were common for young children who died in areas with high childhood mortality rates. To further reduce childhood mortality in resource-limited settings, there is an urgent need to improve antemortem diagnostic capability through advances in the availability of diagnostic testing and clinical skills.

The trend analysis of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections among the elderly aged 50 to 69 years from 1990 to 2030

Background

The HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) excluding HIV among the elderly population urgently require more attention and in-depth study. We aimed to present and predict the worldwide of its burden from 1990 to 2030 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

Methods

Leveraging the 2019 GBD study, we investigated the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of HIV and other STI in incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality rates for individuals aged 50-69 across different age groups, genders, sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, and nations. The incidence of STI in the population from 2020 to 2030 was explored by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model.

Results

The HIV incidence rate experienced its fastest growth 1990-1992, peaked in 1996, and gradually declined thereafter, with the 2019 rate being lower than that of 1990. The prevalence rate didn't present a sharp turning point. After 2006, its growth rate accelerated. Both DALYs and mortality rates plateaued high between 2002 and 2005, followed by a decline. The decline was steepest from 2005-2012, yet the rate of decrease slowed noticeably from 2012-2019.When segmented by age, HIV was more prevalent among those aged 55-59 and 50-54, with the 50-54 age group witnessing the fastest decline in incidence rates. However, the fastest growth in prevalence rates was seen among the 60-64 and 65-69 age groups. The other STI incidence rate declined from 1990-1996, increased up to 2006, declined until 2015, and then saw a resurgence with accelerated growth thereafter. The prevalence rate showcased varied trends, with a notable increase in the past five years. The highest growth in incidence rate was among the 65-69 age group. We predict that the incidence rate of STI will increase in the future.

Conclusions

Overall, despite the evident decline in incidence, mortality rates, and DALYs, the prevalence of HIV and other STI among the elderly is rising, and both demonstrated significant trend variations across different ages, genders, SDI regions, and nations. Comprehensive sexual health education, clinical care and adjustments in health service strategies based on the evolving trends of HIV and other STI among the elderly are paramount.

Comparative analysis of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease burden between ages 20-54 and over 55 years: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

To systematically analyze differences in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) burden between young and older adults.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ASCVD, including ischemic heart disease (IHD), ischemic stroke (IS), and peripheral artery disease (PAD), in individuals aged 20-54 and > 55 years from 1990-2019, utilizing data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. The annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for age-specific prevalence, mortality, or DALY rates were calculated to quantify the temporal trends of ASCVD burden. We also analyzed population attribution fractions (PAF) of premature ASCVD mortality and DALYs for different risk factors and compared the burden of extremely premature, premature, and non-premature ASCVD cases based on clinical classifications.

RESULTS

From 1990-2019, the global prevalence rates of IHD, IS, and PAD in the 20-54 years age group increased by 20.55% (from 694.74 to 837.49 per 100,000 population), 11.50% (from 439.48 to 490.03 per 100,000 population), and 7.38% (from 384.24 to 412.59 per 100,000 population), respectively. Conversely, the ASCVD prevalence in > 55years age group decreased. Adverse outcome burdens, including mortality and DALYs, varied among ASCVD subtypes. The decrease in the mortality/DALY burden of IHD and IS was lower in the 20-54 years group than in the > 55 years group. For PAD, DALYs among those aged 20-54 increased but decreased among those aged > 55 years. When grouped according to socio-demographic index (SDI) values, lower SDI regions exhibited a higher proportion of young ASCVD burden. The prevalence of young IHD, IS, and PAD in low SDI regions reached 20.70%, 40.05%, and 19.31% in 2019, respectively, compared with 12.14%, 16.32%, and 9.54%, respectively, in high SDI regions. Metabolic risks were the primary contributors to the ASCVD burden in both age groups. Increased susceptibility to ambient particulate matter pollution and inadequate control of high body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose in young individuals may partially explain the differing temporal trends between young and older individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The ASCVD burden in young individuals may become a growing global health concern, especially in areas with lower socioeconomic development levels that require more effective primary prevention strategies.

Trend analysis and prediction of injury incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort model

BACKGROUND

Injury is a major challenge to global public health. Analysing the trend of injury incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicting future trends in incidence can provide a theoretical basis for injury prevention and control in China.

METHODS

We collected age-standardised incidence rates of injuries in China from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We analysed trends using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models. A prediction study was conducted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, there was an increasing trend in transport injuries, a decreasing trend in unintentional injuries and a decreasing trend in self-harm and interpersonal violence. The high-risk age for transport injuries, unintentional injuries and self-harm and interpersonal violence were 20-69 years (relative risk (RR)>1), ≤14 and ≥80 years (RR>1) and 20-24 years (RR=2.311, 95% CI 2.296 to 2.326), respectively. Projections indicate that by 2030, the incidence of transport and unintentional injuries will increase, whereas the incidence of self-harm and interpersonal violence will decrease.

CONCLUSION

The age group with the highest risk of transport injuries, unintentional injuries and self-harm and interpersonal violence were the 20-69 years, ≤ 14 and ≥80 years and 20-24 years age groups, respectively. Transport injuries and unintentional injuries will increase in 2020-2030, while self-harm and interpersonal violence will decrease. These can serve as a basis for developing measures to prevent and manage the impact of injuries.

Nasopharyngeal cancer risk assessment by country or region worldwide from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is 22nd most common cancer that occurs all over the world, but the prevalence rate can exhibit significant geographical differences. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database provides data related to the incidence, mortality, and disease burden of NPC worldwide from 1990 to 2019. We have designed this study in order to evaluate the potential effectiveness of health care policies and strategies for NPC prevention, diagnosis and treatment in different countries or regions around the world.

METHODS

We used for the first time two distinct indicators, EAPC-ASIR and EACP-ASDR, to perform cluster analysis on 200 countries or regions around the world.

RESULTS

200 countries or regions could be divided into five diverse groups. Group 1: The incidence rate showed an increasing trend whereas the mortality rate depicted a decreasing trend. Group 2: Morbidity as well as mortality showed a slight increase; Group 3: Morbidity as well as mortality increased significantly; Group 4: Morbidity and mortality decreased significantly; Group 5: Both morbidity as well as mortality decreased slightly. Moreover, in the context of a global decline in NPC incidence, mortality and disease burden, Group 3 countries, including: "Turkmenistan", "Bosnia and Herzegovina", "Dominican Republic", "Bulgaria", "Lesotho", "Cabo Verde", "Romania", "Cuba", "Jamaica", "Azerbaijan", "Uzbekistan", "Chad", "Belize" and "Ukraine" displayed a significant increase in morbidity, mortality, and disease burden, thus indicating a dangerous trend.

CONCLUSION

It is suggested that the medical and health policies formulated by the countries in Group 3 for NPC, as well as their capacity for conducting censuses, preventing, diagnosing, and treating diseases, need to be substantially strengthened.

Impact of Healthy Lifestyle Factors on Life Expectancy and Lifetime Health Care Expenditure: Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The association between lifestyle risk factors and the risk of mortality and chronic diseases has been established, while limited research has explored the impact of healthy lifestyle factors on lifetime health care expenditure using longitudinal individual data.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the individual and combined effects of 5 healthy lifestyle factors on life expectancy and lifetime health care expenditure in Taiwan.

METHODS

Using data from the National Health Interview Survey cohort, 5 healthy lifestyle behaviors were defined and analyzed: nonsmoking, avoiding excessive alcohol consumption, engaging in sufficient physical activity, ensuring sufficient fruit and vegetable intake, and maintaining a normal weight. We used a rolling extrapolation algorithm that incorporated inverse probability of treatment weighting to estimate the life expectancy and lifetime health care expenditure of the study populations with and without healthy lifestyle factors.

RESULTS

A total of 19,893 participants aged ≥30 (mean age 48.8, SD 13.4) years were included, with 3815 deaths recorded during a median follow-up period of 15.6 years. The life expectancy and per capita estimated lifetime health care expenditures for the overall study population were 35.32 years and US $58,560, respectively. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in participants adhering to all 5 healthy lifestyle factors, compared with those adhering to none, were 0.37 (95% CI 0.27-0.49). We found significant increases in life expectancy for nonsmokers (2.31 years; 95% CI 0.04-5.13; P=.03), those with sufficient physical activity (1.85 years; 95% CI 0.25-4.34; P=.02), and those with adequate fruit and vegetable intake (3.25 years; 95% CI 1.29-6.81; P=.01). In addition, nonsmokers experienced a significant reduction in annual health care expenditure (-9.78%; 95% CI -46.53% to -1.45%; P=.03), as did individuals maintaining optimal body weight (-18.36%; 95% CI -29.66% to -8.57%; P=.01). Overall, participants adhering to all 5 healthy lifestyle behaviors exhibited a life gain of 7.13 years (95% CI 1.33-11.11; P=.02) compared with those adhering to one or none, with a life expectancy of 29.19 years (95% CI 25.45-33.62). Furthermore, individuals adopting all 5 healthy lifestyle factors experienced an average annual health care expenditure reduction of 28.12% (95% CI 4.43%-57.61%; P=.02) compared with those adopting one or none.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting a healthy lifestyle is associated with a longer life expectancy and a reduction of health care expenditure in Taiwanese adults. This contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of healthy lifestyle factors on the overall health and economic burden.

Trends and levels of the global, regional, and national burden of appendicitis between 1990 and 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Appendicitis is a common surgical emergency that poses a large clinical and economic burden. Understanding the global burden of appendicitis is crucial for evaluating unmet needs and implementing and scaling up intervention services to reduce adverse health outcomes. This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the global, regional, and national burden of appendicitis, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

Vital registration and verbal autopsy data, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), and demographic estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) were used to estimate cause-specific mortality rates (CSMRs) for appendicitis. Incidence data were extracted from insurance claims and inpatient discharge sources and analysed with disease modelling meta-regression, version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by combining death counts with standard life expectancy at the age of death. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated by multiplying incidence estimates by an average disease duration of 2 weeks and a disability weight for abdominal pain. YLLs and YLDs were summed to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global age-standardised mortality rate of appendicitis was 0·358 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·311-0·414) per 100 000. Mortality rates ranged from 1·01 (0·895-1·13) per 100 000 in central Latin America to 0·054 (0·0464-0·0617) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. The global age-standardised incidence rate of appendicitis in 2021 was 214 (174-274) per 100 000, corresponding to 17 million (13·8-21·6) new cases. The incidence rate was the highest in high-income Asia Pacific, at 364 (286-475) per 100 000 and the lowest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 81·4 (63·9-109) per 100 000. The global age-standardised rates of mortality, incidence, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs due to appendicitis decreased steadily between 1990 and 2021, with the largest reduction in mortality and YLL rates. The global annualised rate of decline in the DALY rate was greatest in children younger than the age of 10 years. Although mortality rates due to appendicitis decreased in all regions, there were large regional variations in the temporal trend in incidence. Although the global age-standardised incidence rate of appendicitis has steadily decreased between 1990 and 2021, almost half of GBD regions saw an increase of greater than 10% in their age-standardised incidence rates.

INTERPRETATION

Slow but promising progress has been observed in reducing the overall burden of appendicitis in all regions. However, there are important geographical variations in appendicitis incidence and mortality, and the relationship between these measures suggests that many people still do not have access to quality health care. As the incidence of appendicitis is rising in many parts of the world, countries should prepare their health-care infrastructure for timely, high-quality diagnosis and treatment. Given the risk that improved diagnosis may counterintuitively drive apparent rising trends in incidence, these efforts should be coupled with improved data collection, which will also be crucial for understanding trends and developing targeted interventions.

FUNDING

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association of cigarette smoking, smoking cessation with the risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

To investigate the association between cigarette smoking, smoking cessation and the trajectory of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM), and further to examine the association of age at smoking initiation and smoking cessation with CMM.

METHODS

This study included 298,984 UK Biobank participants without cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) (including type 2 diabetes, coronary heart diseases, stroke, and hypertension) at baseline. Smoking status was categorized into former, current, and never smokers, with age at smoking initiation and smoking cessation as a proxy for current and former smokers. The multi-state model was performed to evaluate the association between cigarette smoking, smoking cessation and CMM.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 13.2 years, 59,193 participants developed first cardiometabolic disease (FCMD), 14,090 further developed CMM, and 16,487 died. Compared to former smokers, current smokers had higher risk at all transitions, with hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.59 (1.55 ∼ 1.63) vs. 1.18 (1.16 ∼ 1.21) (P = 1.48 × 10- 118) from health to FCMD, 1.40 (1.33 ∼ 1.47) vs. 1.09 (1.05 ∼ 1.14) (P = 1.50 × 10- 18) from FCMD to CMM, and 2.87 (2.72 ∼ 3.03) vs. 1.38 (1.32 ∼ 1.45) (P < 0.001) from health, 2.16 (1.98 ∼ 2.35) vs. 1.25 (1.16 ∼ 1.34) (P = 1.18 × 10- 46) from FCMD, 2.02 (1.79 ∼ 2.28) vs. 1.22 (1.09 ∼ 1.35) (P = 3.93 × 10- 17) from CMM to death; whereas quitting smoking reduced the risk attributed to cigarette smoking by approximately 76.5% across all transitions. Reduced risks of smoking cessation were also identified when age at quitting smoking was used as a proxy for former smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Cigarette smoking was associated with a higher risk of CMM across all transitions; however, smoking cessation, especially before the age of 35, was associated with a significant decrease in CMM risk attributed to cigarette smoking.

Global burden of major depressive disorders attributable to intimate partner violence against women: Magnitude, temporal trends, and regional inequalities

AIMS

This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends, spatial heterogeneities, and potential improvements in the burden of major depressive disorders (MDD) attributable to intimate partner violence (IPV) against women across 21 global burden of disease (GBD) regions, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We evaluated the burden of MDD attributable to IPV against women, as measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 100,000 people across 21 GBD regions and 204 GBD countries and territories, using data from the 2019 GBD Study. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the DALY age-standardized rates (ASRs) was used to reflect trends over time. LOESS and quantile regression were used to model the relationship between the five GBD sociodemographic index (SDI) categories and DALY ASRs. Frontier analysis determined the minimum achievable DALY ASR associated with developmental status, as measured by the SDI.

RESULTS

The overall AAPC in age-standardized DALY rates for MDD attributable to IPV declined globally between 1990 and 2019. Despite the overall global decline (AAPC -0.08 [95 % UI -0.2, 0.03]), certain GBD regions, particularly high-income North America and Central Latin America, have experienced increases in DALY ASRs. The relationship between SDI and MDD burden showed a U-shaped variability, with low-SDI regions consistently exhibiting higher and stable DALY rates. Frontier analysis revealed that several countries, regardless of their SDI, have substantial gaps between observed and potentially achievable DALY rates, indicating areas for targeted intervention to reduce the burden of MDD due to IPV.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in MDD due to IPV was observed globally from 1990 to 2019, highlighting the substantial potential for improvement in various countries. Protective measures should be customized to suit the unique cultural contexts, developmental statuses, and regional disparities of each country.

Social determinants and work-related musculoskeletal disorders in Brazil

This study aimed to analyze the prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) and their association with individual and contextual factors in the Brazilian population. This quantitative cross-sectional study used secondary data from the Brazilian National Health Survey from August 2013 to February 2014. The dependent variable included WMSD, and independent variables were analyzed as individual and contextual factors. WMSD was mostly prevalent in females, individuals aged 43 to 59 years, with chronic physical or mental disorders, reporting frequent sleep disorders, and performing integrative and complementary health practices, physical exercise or sports, and heavy physical activity or housework. Regarding contextual factors, high social classes and proportion of individuals with formal work were associated with a high prevalence of WMSD, whereas a high Gini index was associated with a low prevalence. Thus, a high prevalence of WMSD in the Brazilian population was associated with individual and contextual factors, which should be the target of health professionals for actions of promotion, prevention, and intervention at individual or collective care levels.

The global burden of disease attributable to preterm birth and low birth weight in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background

Preterm birth and low birth weight (PBLBW), recognised globally as primary contributors to infant mortality in children under five, have not been sufficiently investigated in terms of their worldwide impact. In this study we aimed to thoroughly evaluate the contemporary trends in disease burden attributable to PBLBW.

Methods

We analysed data from 204 countries and territories between 1990-2019, as sourced from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We analysed the global incidence of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with PBLBW, stratified by age, gender, year, and geographic location, alongside the socio-demographic index (SDI). We calculated the annual percentage changes to evaluate the dynamic trends over time. We employed a generalised linear model and scrutinised the relationship between the SDI and the disease burden attributed to PBLBW.

Results

In 2019, the global age-standardised rate of deaths and DALYs related to PBLBW showed significant declines. Over the period 1990-2019, both death and DALY rates displayed substantial downward trends, with similar change trends observed for both females and males. Age-specific ratios revealed a decrease in PBLBW-related deaths and DALYs with increasing age, primarily during the neonatal stages (zero to 27 days). The leading three causes of PBLBW-related DALYs in 2019 were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and sudden infant death syndrome. Furthermore, the association between SDI and PBLBW-related DALYs indicated that the age-standardised DALY rates in 204 countries and territories worldwide were negatively correlated with SDI in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardised DALY rates decreased linearly in most regions, except sub-Saharan Africa.

Conclusions

The persistent global burden of disease associated with PBLBW is particularly pronounced in neonates aged less than 28 days and in regions with low SDI. In this study, we highlighted the critical need for tailored interventions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of PBLBW to attain specific sustainable development goals, particularly those centred on enhancing child survival and overall well-being.

Burden of unintentional drowning in China from 1990 to 2019 and exposure to water: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Drowning is an important contributor to the burden of deaths in China. Exposure to open water is a risk factor for drowning, but few studies quantify its impact on drowning. The purpose of this study was to provide an up-to-date analysis of unintentional drowning in China, including impact of exposure to open water.

METHODS

Chinese provincial data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 were used to describe the burden of unintentional drowning in 33 provinces and changes from 1990 to 2019. Provincial outdoor open water resource data were used to explore the relationship between outdoor open water resources and drowning burden using K-median clustering analysis.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the unintentional drowning incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALY) rates declined by 31.2%, 68.6% and 74.9%, respectively, with differences by age, sex and province. In 2019, the DALY rate for drowning was relatively higher in children under 20 year, the elderly over 80 years than other age groups and was relatively higher in men. There was no statistical difference in overall incidence rate by sex. Provincial differences in unintentional drowning burden show a positive relationship with the availability and size of outdoor open water.

CONCLUSIONS

As expected availability of water increases drowning risk. There is a need to address drowning environmental risk especially among children and the elderly. Localised water safety plans which consider drowning burden and environmental risk factors are needed in China to ensure a sustained decline of unintentional drowning.

Association between sleep duration and possible sarcopenia in middle-aged and elderly Chinese individuals: evidence from the China health and retirement longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia is a common cause of disability in the aging population, and managing sarcopenia is an important step in building intrinsic capacity and promoting healthy aging. A growing body of evidence suggests that sleep deprivation may be a mediator of the development of sarcopenia. The purpose of this study was to explore the longitudinal association between sleep duration and possible sarcopenia using data from a national sample.

METHODS

Two waves of data from the CHARLS database for 2011 and 2015 were used in this study. All possible sarcopenia participants met the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia 2019 (AWGS 2019) diagnostic criteria. Sleep duration was assessed using a self-report questionnaire, and sleep duration was categorized as short (≤ 6 h), medium (6-8 h), or long (> 8 h) based on previous studies. Longitudinal associations between sleep duration and possible sarcopenia will be calculated by univariate and multifactorial logistic regression analyses and expressed as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

A total of 5654 individuals participated in the follow-up study, with a prevalence of possible sarcopenia of 53.72% (578) in the short sleep duration group, 38.29% (412) in the medium sleep duration group, and 7.99% (86) in the long sleep duration group. According to the crude model of the second-wave follow-up study, short sleep durations were significantly more strongly associated with possible sarcopenia than were medium and long sleep durations (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.17-1.55, P = 0.000). The association between short sleep duration and possible sarcopenia was maintained even after adjustment for covariates such as age, gender, residence, education level, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption and comorbidities (OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02-1.36, P = 0.029). In the subgroup analysis, short sleep duration was associated with low grip strength (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.02-1.41, P = 0.031).

CONCLUSIONS

Sleep deprivation may be closely associated with the development of possible sarcopenia in middle-aged and elderly people, which provides new insights and ideas for sarcopenia intervention, and further studies are needed to reveal the underlying mechanisms involved.

Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of autoimmune diseases in adolescents and young adults (15-39 years): an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021

BACKGROUND

Autoimmune diseases (ADs) present significant health challenges globally, especially among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) due to their unique developmental stages. Comprehensive analyses of their burden are limited. This study leverages the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data to assess the global, regional, and national burden and trends of major ADs among AYAs from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 for individuals aged 15-39 years, we employed a direct method for age standardization to calculate estimates along with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for assessing the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence rates (ASPR), and mortality rates (ASMR) of ADs. The diseases analyzed included rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS), type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), Asthma, and Psoriasis. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, providing average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULT

In 2021, the global ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR of RA among AYAs (per 100,000 population) were 9.46 (95% UI: 5.92 to 13.54), 104.35 (77.44 to 137.84), and 0.016 (0.013 to 0.019), respectively. For IBD, the corresponding rates were 4.08 (3.07 to 5.37), 29.55 (23.00 to 37.83), and 0.10 (0.07 to 0.12). MS exhibited rates of 1.40 (0.93 to 1.93), 16.05 (12.73 to 19.75), and 0.05 (0.04 to 0.05), respectively. T1DM had rates of 6.63 (3.08 to 11.84), 245.51 (194.21 to 307.56), and 0.54 (0.47 to 0.60). Asthma demonstrated rates of 232.22 (132.11 to 361.24), 2245.51 (1671.05 to 2917.57), and 0.89 (0.77 to 1.08). Psoriasis showed rates of 55.08 (48.53 to 61.93) and 426.16 (394.12 to 460.18) for ASIR and ASPR, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR of RA (AAPC = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.46 to 0.49), IBD (0.22 [0.12 to 0.33]), MS (0.22 [0.19 to 0.26]), T1DM (0.83 [0.80 to 0.86]), and Psoriasis (0.33 [0.31 to 0.34]) showed increasing trends, whereas Asthma (-0.96 [-1.03 to -0.88]) showed a decreasing trend. The global ASPR of RA (0.70 [0.68 to 0.73]), MS (0.35 [0.32 to 0.37]), T1DM (0.68 [0.66 to 0.69]), and Psoriasis (0.29 [0.27 to 0.32]) also showed increasing trends, whereas IBD (-0.20 [-0.27 to -0.13]) and Asthma (-1.25 [-1.31 to -1.19]) showed decreasing trends. Notably, the estimated global ASMR of RA (-2.35 [-2.57 to -2.12]), MS (-0.63 [-0.86 to -0.41]), T1DM (-0.35 [-0.56 to -0.14]), and Asthma (-1.35 [-1.44 to -1.26]) in AYAs declined. Additionally, the burden of disease for ADs in AYAs varies considerably across continents and between 204 countries and territories.

CONCLUSION

ADs among AYAs present a substantial public health burden with notable regional disparities in incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates. Understanding these patterns is essential for developing targeted public health interventions and policies to mitigate the impact of ADs in this population.

Association between Physical Activity and Phase Angle Obtained via Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis in South Korean Adults Stratified by Sex

This cross-sectional study aimed to examine the association of various aspects of physical activity, including intensity, duration, type, and purpose, with the phase angle (PhA), an objective indicator of health, in Korean adults after stratification by sex. Data from the 2022 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a nationwide, representative, population-based survey, were used. In total, 3996 participants were included in the study. Participants self-reported their weekly intensity, frequency, duration of engagement in physical activity. PhA was categorized into two groups on the basis of sex-specific averages. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between physical activity and PhA, and proportional odds logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the association between physical activity and different subclasses of PhA. A positive association was found between sufficiently active aerobic physical activity and PhA compared with inactive physical activity (sufficiently active, male: odds ratio = 1.952, 95% confidence interval = 1.373-2.776; female: odds ratio = 1.333, 95% confidence interval = 1.019-1.745). This association was further strengthened when aerobic physical activity was accompanied by muscle-strengthening activity (sufficiently active with muscle-strengthening activity, male: aOR = 2.318, 95% CI = 1.512-3.554; female: aOR = 1.762, 95% CI = 1.215-2.556) and vigorous-intensity activities (sufficiently active with sufficient vigorous-intensity activity, male: aOR = 2.785, 95% CI = 1.647-4.709; female: aOR = 2.505, 95% CI = 1.441-4.356) and when there was more leisure-time physical activity than occupational physical activity (sufficiently active with more leisure-time physical activity, male: aOR = 2.158, 95% CI = 1.483-3.140; female: aOR = 1.457, 95% CI = 1.078-1.969). Furthermore, the inclusion of muscle-strengthening activity made a significant difference in the values of PhA for males with insufficiently active physical activity (aOR = 2.679, 95% CI = 1.560-4.602). For females with highly active physical activity (aOR = 1.521, 95% CI = 1.068-2.166), the inclusion of muscle-strengthening and vigorous-intensity activities were significantly associated with higher values for PhA. This study can be utilized to provide specific suggestions for better health programs and can change perception that only occupational physical activity is enough. This study also indicated that PhA can be used for personalized health assessments.

Global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to secondhand smoke from 1990 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

Assessing the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) attributable to secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is crucial for informing evidence-based healthcare practices, prevention strategies, and resource allocation planning.

METHODS

The burden of IHD attributable to SHS from 1990 to 2019 was assessed using the comparative risk assessment method as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019.

RESULTS

Globally, the absolute number of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from IHD due to SHS increased substantially from 270.0 thousand and 6971.3 thousand in 1990 to 397.4 thousand and 9566.1 thousand in 2019. The corresponding age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR) were both in a decreasing trend with estimate of the annual percentage change (EAPC) of -1.38 (-1.42 - -1.34) and -1.43 (-1.47 - -1.38). Central Asia has the highest ASMR (16 per 100000, 95% uncertainty interval, UI: 12.8-19.4), and Oceania has the highest ASDR (323.2 per 100000, 95% UI: 228.9-443.1 per 100000) in 2019. All sociodemographic index (SDI) category regions showed a decreasing trend in ASMR and ASDR, with the decrease being more obvious in high and high-middle SDI regions. Our analysis identified an escalating trend concerning ASMR and ASDR in Oceania from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the most significant number of deaths and DALYs occurred in the age group of 80-84 years (5.4 thousand, 95% UI: 3.7-7.3 in thousands) and the age group of 55-59 years (1140.8 thousand, 95% UI: 876.1-1435 in thousands).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reveals an absolute global increase in deaths and DALYs from IHD due to SHS from 1990 to 2019. Despite a declining trend in ASMR and ASDR, regional disparities persist. The elderly and middle-aged populations bore the most significant burden. These findings highlight the ongoing global health impact of SHS on IHD and emphasize the need for targeted interventions in regions with rising trends and vulnerable age groups.

Time trends in Alzheimer's disease mortality attributable to metabolic risks and smoking in China from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis

Background

With the increase in the aging population worldwide, Alzheimer's disease has become a rapidly increasing public health concern. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, there are three risk factors judged to have evidence for a causal link to Alzheimer's disease and other dementias: smoking, high body-mass index (HBMI), and high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG).

Objective

This study aimed to analyze trends in AD mortality and the relevant burden across China from 1990 to 2019, as well as their correlation with age, period, and birth cohort.

Methods

The data were extracted from the GBD 2019. Trends in AD mortality attributable to metabolic risks (HFPG and HBMI) and smoking were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to evaluate cohort and period effects.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the overall age-standardized mortality rate of AD increased, especially in women. There was an increase in AD mortality due to smoking in the net drift, and it was more significant in women (0.46, 95%CI = [0.09, 0.82]) than men (-0.03, 95%CI = [-0.11, 0.05]). For the cause of HFPG, the net drift values for men and women were 0.82% and 0.43%. For HBMI, the values were 3.14% and 2.76%, respectively, reflecting substantial increases in AD mortality.

Conclusion

Time trends in AD mortality caused by metabolic risks and smoking in China from 1990 to 2019 have consistently increased. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent excessive weight gain and obesity during the later stages of life, especially for females.

The global burden of disease attributable to high body mass index in 204 countries and territories: Findings from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2035

AIM

Our study aims to provide an updated estimate of age- and sex-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with high body mass index (BMI) from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional and national levels, and to forecast the global burden of disease attributed to high BMI from 2020 to 2035.

METHODS

We used the data for the number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized rate (per 100 000 population), percentage change and population attributable fraction from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to examine the disease burden attributable to high BMI. We further applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden for the period 2020-2035.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI increased by 148% and 155.86% for men, and by 111.67% and 121.78% for women, respectively. In 2019, high BMI directly accounted for 8.52% [95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 0.05, 0.12] of all-cause deaths and 5.89% (95% UI 0.04, 0.08) of global DALYs. The highest death rates were observed in men aged 65-69 and women aged 75-79. The highest DALY rates were observed in the age group of 60-64 for both sexes. In 2019, the highest age-standardized deaths and DALY rates were observed in the Central Asia region [163.15 (95% UI 107.72, 223.58) per 100 000 people] and the Oceania region [4643.33 (95% UI 2835.66, 6902.6) per 100 000 people], respectively. Fiji [319.08 (95% UI 213.77, 444.96) per 100 000 people] and Kiribati [10 000.58 (95% UI 6266.55, 14159.2) per 100 000 people] had the highest age-standardized deaths and DALY rates, respectively. In 2019, the highest age-standardized rates of high BMI-related deaths and DALYs were observed in the middle-high socio-demographic index quintile and in the middle socio-demographic index quintile. The age-standardized deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI are projected to increase in both sexes from 2020 to 2035. The death rates are projected to rise from 62.79 to 64.31 per 100 000 people, while the DALY rates are projected to rise from 1946 to 2099.54 per 100 000 people.

CONCLUSIONS

High BMIs significantly contribute to the global disease burden. The projected rise in deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI by 2035 highlights the critical need to address the impact of obesity on public health. Our study provides policymakers with up-to-date and comprehensive information.

Association of Countries' Atopic Dermatitis Burden and Sociodemographic Index with Topical Calcineurin Inhibitor Utilization

Background: There is limited knowledge on international trends in topical calcineurin inhibitor (TCI) utilization. Objective: To describe international TCI utilization trends from 2012 to 2019 and evaluate the relationship of country-level economic status, geographic location, and atopic dermatitis (AD) disease burden with drug utilization. Methods: We used IQVIA MIDAS® pharmaceutical quarterly sales data to attain country-level purchasing of TCIs in grams from 2012 to 2019. A multivariable linear regression estimated the association between countries' sociodemographic index (SDI), AD disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates, and geographic location with TCI utilization. Results: A total of 68 countries were included in our analysis. From 2012 to 2019, overall TCI utilization increased by 66% but remained 11.2 times higher in high-sociodemographic compared with low-middle/low-sociodemographic countries. SDI and geographic location were associated with greater TCI utilization in multivariable analyses, whereas AD DALY rates were not. High-SDI countries used 21,476 grams (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11,915 to 31,036) and high-middle SDI countries used 9,403 grams (95% CI: -393 to 19,200) more TCIs per 100,000 people compared with low-middle/low-SDI countries, respectively. Northern hemisphere countries used 8,588 grams more TCIs per 100,000 people (95% CI: 612 to 16,564). Conclusions: We demonstrated greater TCI utilization among high-SDI compared with lower SDI countries.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis in 128 countries: a meta-regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analyses have been conducted for many interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis, but they have not been conducted for all interventions that are currently recommended in all countries. To support national decision makers in the effective allocation of resources, we conducted a meta-regression analysis of published incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for interventions for these causes, and predicted ICERs for 14 recommended interventions for Global Fund-eligible countries.

METHODS

In the meta-regression analysis, we used data from the Tufts University Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (Boston, MA, USA) Cost-Effectiveness Registries (the CEA Registry beginning in 1976 and the Global Health CEA registry beginning in 1995) up to Jan 1, 2018. To create analysis files, we standardised and mapped the data, extracted additional data from published articles, and added variables from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Then we selected ratios for interventions with a minimum of two published articles and three published ICERs that mapped to one of five GBD causes (HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, drug-susceptible tuberculosis, or multi-drug resistant tuberculosis), and to a GBD country; reported a currency year during or after 1990; and for which the comparator intervention was defined as no intervention, standard of care, or placebo. Our meta-regression analysis used all available data on 25 eligible interventions, and quantified the association between ICERs and factors at country level and intervention level. We used a five-stage statistical model that was developed to synthesise evidence on cost-effectiveness analyses, and we adapted it for smaller sample sizes by grouping interventions by cause and type (ie, prevention, diagnostics, and treatment). Using the meta-regression parameters we predicted country-specific median ICERs, IQRs, and 95% uncertainty intervals in 2019 US$ per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) for 14 currently recommended interventions. We report ICERs in league tables with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and country-specific thresholds.

FINDINGS

The sample for the analysis was 1273 ratios from 144 articles, of which we included 612 ICERs from 106 articles in our meta-regression analysis. We predicted ICERs for antiretroviral therapy for prevention for two age groups and pregnant women, pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV for two risk groups, four malaria prevention interventions, antenatal syphilis screening, two tuberculosis prevention interventions, the Xpert tuberculosis test, and chemotherapy for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. At the country level, ranking of interventions and number of interventions with a predicted median ICER below the country-specific threshold varied greatly. For instance, median ICERs for six of 14 interventions were below the country-specific threshold in Sudan, whereas 12 of 14 were below the country-specific threshold in Peru. Antenatal syphilis screening had the lowest median ICER among all 14 interventions in 81 (63%) of 128 countries, ranging from $3 (IQR 2-4) per DALY averted in Equatorial Guinea to $3473 (2244-5222) in Ukraine. Pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV/AIDS for men who have sex with men had the highest median ICER among all interventions in 116 (91%) countries, ranging from $2326 (1077-4567) per DALY averted in Lesotho to $53 559 (23 841-108 534) in Maldives.

INTERPRETATION

Country-specific league tables highlight the interventions that offer better value per DALY averted, and can support decision making at a country level that is more tailored to available resources than GDP per capita and country-specific thresholds. Meta-regression is a promising method to synthesise cost-effectiveness analysis results and transfer them across settings.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Postgraduate education in healthy and active ageing: a systematic scoping review of learning needs, curricula and learning impact

To inform a new European-based online master's programme in active aging and age-friendly society, a scoping review was performed to identify previously reported learning needs and learning outcomes on this topic. Four electronic databases (PubMed, EBSCO [Academic Search Complete], Scopus, and ASSIA) were systematically searched, along with gray literature. Dual, independent review of an initial 888 studies led to 33 included papers which underwent independent data extraction and reconciliation. Just 18.2% of studies employed a student survey or similar to determine learning needs, with the majority reporting educational intervention objectives, learning outcomes or curriculum content. Main study topics were intergenerational learning (36.4%), age-related design (27.3%), health (21.2%), attitudes toward aging (6.1%), and collaborative learning (6.1%). This review found limited literature on student learning needs in healthy and active aging. Future research should elucidate student- and other stakeholder-determined learning needs, with robust evaluation of post-education skills, attitudes, and practice change.

Global mortality of chronic liver diseases attributable to Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus infections from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2030

BACKGROUND

The burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) deaths attributable to the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains unknown. Further research is required to elucidate the extent of this burden in the eventual elimination of these diseases.

METHODS

Data on liver cancer, cirrhosis, and other CLD among 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) published in 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the temporal trend and predict the disease burden by 2030.

RESULTS

The number of HCV-related CLD deaths surpassed that of CLD deaths caused by HBV in 2019 (536833 deaths versus 523003 deaths) and is expected to be maintained until 2030 (689124 deaths versus 628824 deaths). East Asia had the highest burden of chronic HBV and HCV infections during the study period. In 2019, the largest age-standardized death rates (ASDR) of CLD deaths caused by HBV and HCV were mainly observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa (18.75%) and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (16.42%), respectively. South Asia and East Asia are predicted to have the highest number of CLD deaths related to HCV and HBV by 2030. Eastern Europe and South Asia show the largest expected increase in disease burden caused by HCV or HBV between 2019 and 2030. No GBD region is projected to achieve the WHO target of a 65% reduction in mortality from chronic HBV and HCV infections by 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the mortality of CLD caused by HBV and HCV decreased in the last three decades (from 1990 to 2019), the number of deaths will continue to increase until 2030. Therefore, governments and international organizations need to strengthen the effectiveness of vaccines, screening, and treatment, especially in potential emerging hotspot regions.

The national burden of inflammatory bowel disease in the United States from 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study database

Background

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) epidemiology has changed rapidly in recent years. We aimed to provide a systematic report of the burden of IBD at a state level in the United States (US), and to study the age- and sex-specific trends of incidence, prevalence and mortality rates for the past 3 decades.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 Study Database, we examined the incidence, prevalence and mortality rate, and the disability-adjusted life-years from GBD 2019 at national and state level from 1990-2019.

Results

There was an overall decrease in incidence and prevalence rates of IBD in the US from 1990-2019, while a simultaneous increase in the overall mortality rates was identified. However, a distinct trend of increasing incidence and prevalence rates emerged starting in 2000, with incidence rates rising from 21 cases per 100,000 persons in 2000 to 23 cases per 100,000 persons in 2019. From 1990-2019, incidence and prevalence decreased in males at a higher rate than in females. However, mortality rates increased more in females than males. Incidence rates were highest in Midwestern and Eastern states, and were lowest across the northern Great Plains and Western states, with the highest incidence noted in Michigan (31 cases per 100,000 persons). California had the greatest decrease in incidence rates from 1990-2019 (-63.3%).

Conclusion

Our results concerning recent trends and geographic variations in IBD offer policymakers crucial insights for informed decision-making in policy, research, and investment, facilitating more effective strategies and allocation of resources.

Evaluation of Osteoarthritis Disease Burden in China During 1990-2019 and Forecasting Its Trend Over the Future 25 Years

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the temporal trend of osteoarthritis (OA) burden in China by age, sex, and joint sites from 1990 to 2019 and predict the long-term trend over the next 25 years.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we estimated incident cases, prevalent cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of OA, and DALYs of OA attributed to high body mass index (BMI), as well as corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) for aforementioned indicies. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Nordpred age-period-cohort model were used to describe temporal trend changes and predict future disease burden.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the ASR of OA incidence increased from 472.53 per 100,000 to 509.84 per 100,000 people (EAPC: 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.44); the ASR of OA prevalence increased from 5,880.58 per 100,000 to 6,330.06 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.35, 95% CI 0.28-0.42); the ASR of OA DALYs increased from 206.38 per 100,000 to 224.78 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.40, 95% CI 0.32-0.48). The ASR of OA DALYs attributed to high BMI increased rapidly, especially in men and patients with hip OA. Projections suggest an increasing trend in the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA from 2019 to 2044, with the prevalent cases and DALYs of OA in China expected to increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years.

CONCLUSION

The disease burden of OA has increased in China over the past 30 years and is expected to continue rising over the next 25 years.

Transition and trend analysis of the burden of depression in China and different income countries: Based on GBD database and joinpoint regression model

BACKGROUND

Depression is a leading cause of disability and poor health worldwide and is expected to rank first worldwide by 2030. The aim of this study is to analyze the transition and trend of depression burden in China and various income-level countries by utilizing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and the Joinpoint regression model. This analysis seeks to comprehend the variations in the burden of depression across different income regions and evaluate their developmental patterns.

METHODS

Based on the GBD 2019 open dataset, this study extracted data on YLD (Years Lived with Disability), DALY (Disability-Adjusted Life Years), and incidence related to depression. The analysis focused on the period between 1990 and 2019, covering global data and distinguishing between high-income, upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, low-income countries, and China. We utilized the Joinpoint regression model to fit the spatiotemporal trend changes among different income-level countries. Pairwise comparisons were conducted to examine the parallelism and to determine if the differences in trend changes among various regions were statistically significant.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized YLD and DALY for depression female were higher than that in male. The YLD total change rate of depression men was higher than that of women. China exhibited the largest disparity in total YLD change rates between genders, reaching 0.08. During 1990 to 2019, the incidence of depression in 2005-2019 increased among females in middle to high-income countries, low-income countries, and China as compare to that of 1990-2005. Notably, China shown the most increase the incidence rate of females (from -0.4 % to 0.84 %). China experienced the most significant change in the YLD of depression during this period (AAPC = 0.45, 95 % CI = 0.41, 0.48, P < 0.01). China's YLD/Incidence rate was higher compared to the global, HICs, UMCs, LMCs, and LICs. In China, the YLD/incidence rate of depression began to rise in 1994, peaking around 2010, and then gradually declining. Since 2010, the growth rate of depression DALYs in China has been higher than the global average, high-income countries, upper-middle-income countries, lower-middle-income countries, and low-income countries. The DALY's AAPC value for the HLCs was the highest (AAPC = 0.24, 95 % CI = 0.22, 0.25, P < 0.01). The UMCs, in comparison to other regions, incidence rate had the highest AAPC value (AAPC = 0.48, 95 % CI = 0.46, 0.50, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the significant variations in the burden of depression across countries with different income levels, future strategies aimed at reducing the burden of depression should adopt tailored and differentiated approaches according to each country's specific needs and developmental stages.

Drug-use disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: a glance at GBD 2019 findings

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to investigate drug use disorders which are a major cause of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR).

METHODS

This article is a part of the global burden of diseases (GBD), injuries, and risk factors 2019 study. The GBD modeling approach was used to estimate population-level prevalence of drug use disorders. We combined these estimates with disability weights to calculate years of life lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 1990-2019.

RESULTS

It is estimated that in 2019 in EMR around 3.4 million people have drug use disorder which has increased by 137% compared to 1990. Also, in 2019, DALY number for drug use disorders was 1217.9 (95% UI: 940.4, 1528.9) thousand years and 7645 (95% UI: 6793.7, 8567.9) deaths occurred. The DALY rate increased 39.6% in the region since1990, whereas the global rate increased by 24.4%. United Arab Emirates, Libya, and Iran were most affected by drug use disorders with the highest rates of age-standardized DALY in EMR in 2019. The most prevalent drug use disorder in the region is opioid use which is accountable for 80% of all drug use disorders DALYs.

CONCLUSION

Despite many interventions, drug use disorders are still responsible for high rates of DALY in the region which has increased since 1990 in both males and females; more comprehensive policies, better control measures and proper education could reduce the adverse effects.

Time trends in the incidence of interstitial lung disease across Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The global incidence of interstitial lung disease (ILD) has risen over the past few decades. However, few studies have evaluated the status and incidence trends of ILD in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). This study assesses the trends of ILD incidence across the BRICS with an emphasis on ILD changes from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Incidence rates were estimated by the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Age-period-cohort modelling was used to estimate the effects on ILD from 1990 to 2019, and the net drift and local drift were calculated.

RESULTS

In 2019, a total of 11.4 million cases of ILD were reported in the BRICS countries. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate of ILD in BRICS showed an upward trend. India consistently reported the highest incidence rate, while China showed the fastest growth rate (107.6%). Russia reported a similar incidence rates for men and women, with a lower age of peak incidence compared to the other four countries. We found the time effect was unfavourable for BRICS in the first decade, especially for Brazil; in China and Brazil, the risk of people born after 1960 has rapidly decreased.

CONCLUSION

ILD shows a rising incidence in BRICS. with the trends varying based on age and other environmental factors. BRICS should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies for different stages and populations.

Global burden of myocarditis in youth and middle age (1990-2019): A systematic analysis of the disease burden and thirty-year forecast

BACKGROUND

Myocarditis is increasingly recognized as a critical health issue, particularly among youth and middle-aged populations. This study aims to analyze the global burden and trends of myocarditis in these age groups to emphasize the need for region-specific prevention and treatment strategies.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study (1990-2019), we evaluated the age-standardized rates (ASR) of myocarditis in individuals aged 10 to 54 years. We calculated average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Additionally, we examined the correlation between myocarditis incidence and the Human Development Index (HDI) and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Age and sex trends in myocarditis were analyzed, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were used to forecast prevalence trends up to 2050.

RESULTS

The High-income Asia Pacific region had the highest ASR of myocarditis, while North Africa and the Middle East had the lowest. North Africa and the Middle East also experienced the fastest average annual growth in ASR, whereas High-income North America saw the most significant decline. Correlational analysis showed that countries with a high SDI exhibited higher myocarditis ASR. The burden of myocarditis was greater among males than females, with this disparity increasing with age. Projections indicate a stable trend in the incidence of myocarditis among the youth and middle-aged population up to 2050, although the total number of cases is expected to rise.

CONCLUSION

Our study reveals a significant upward trend in myocarditis among youth and middle-aged populations, highlighting the urgency for early monitoring and preventative strategies.

The Global Burden of Gynecological Diseases from 1990 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

Gynecological diseases ranked second among new cases of noncommunicable diseases in women of reproductive age in 1990 and 2019 globally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease burden of gynecological diseases and describe their trends in women of all ages from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), authors examined the incidence, disability-adjusted life years, and deaths from gynecological diseases by age in 204 countries and territories worldwide from 1990 to 2019. Analyses were conducted in 2022.

RESULTS

Globally, the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) of gynecological diseases decreased by -0.176% and -0.245%, respectively from 1990 to 2019. Low socioeconomic development index countries had the highest age-standardized incidence rate and ASDR in 2019. The age-specific incidence rate of gynecological diseases in women aged 15-29 years increased from 1990 to 2019, and the 20-24-year age group increased the greatest by 0.21%. Polycystic ovary syndrome and other types of benign disorders contributed to the major increase.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the disease burden of gynecological diseases decreased slightly between 1990 and 2019 globally, it remained highest in low socioeconomic development index countries. The disease burden in 20-24-year age group exhibited the fastest growth, with polycystic ovary syndrome and other types of benign disorders playing a significant role. Urgent and effective measures should be taken to target different age groups, types of gynecological disease, and regions with high disease burdens.

The Association of Oral Processing Factors and Nutrient Intake in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

CONTEXT

Oral health and food oral-processing issues emerge with functional decline in the older adult population, potentially increasing the risk of malnutrition. Impairment of oral health is associated with poorer nutrition status; however, the relationship between oral factors and the intake of each nutrient remains poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

The associations between different oral factors and nutrient intakes among community-dwelling older adults were investigated.

DATA SOURCES

A literature search from 5 databases (Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Ovid [MEDLINE and Embase], and CINAHL) was completed on February 1, 2022. The search was limited to peer-reviewed articles published between the years 2012 and 2022.

DATA EXTRACTION

Six cross-sectional studies were included in the meta-analysis. Two authors independently completed the data extraction and summarized the study characteristics, factors adjusted for in the statistical analysis, the outcome, and summary statistics of the results.

DATA ANALYSIS

Meta-analyses showed evidence of a significant association between compromised oral factors (namely, denture status, chewing ability, and the number of teeth) with lower energy (weighted mean difference [WMD], -107 kcal d-1 (95% CI, -132 to -81), protein (WMD, -5.2 g d-1; 95% CI, -6.6 to -3.8), fat (WMD, -4.6 g d-1; 95% CI, -6.7 to -2.6), carbohydrate (WMD, -8.8 g d-1; 95% CI, -13.9 to -3.7), and vitamin C intakes (WMD, -12.9 mg d-1; 95% CI, -16.6 to -9.2) in older adults.

CONCLUSION

Oral health can be an indicator of compromised daily energy, protein, fat, carbohydrate, and vitamin C intakes in older adults. However, the small sample size of the studies included in this review and the heterogeneity among macronutrient studies should be considered. Because of the lack of studies covering all aspects of food oral processing (eg, salivary flow rate, tongue pressure), the associations between oral processing and nutrient intake were not thoroughly explored.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration no. CRD42022308823.

Global and regional burden estimation of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: a meta-analysis and modelling analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION

HIV infection is one of the complex aetiologies of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). However, the contribution of HIV to burden of NHL across time and region has not yet been comprehensively reported and quantified. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the relative risk of NHL in individuals with HIV infection compared with those without by performing a comprehensive meta-analysis. Additionally, we intend to further estimate quantitatively the degree of HIV contributing to burden of NHL using population attributable fraction (PAF) modelling analysis.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study will screen a mass of records searched from four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science). The main outcomes are specific effect values and corresponding 95% CIs for NHL among population with HIV infection compared with those without to quantify the association between HIV infection and NHL. After quality assessment and data extraction, we will undertake a meta-analysis to calculate the pooled risk ratio (RR). Furthermore, PAF calculation based on pooled RR combines with number of age-specific disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and HIV prevalence data (aged ≥15 years old) from 1990 to 2019, at global, regional and country levels. We will calculate the PAF, HIV-associated DALY number and age-standardised rate to quantify the burden of HIV-associated NHL.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study is based on published articles; thus, the ethic approval is not essential. In addition, we intend to publish the results on peer-reviewed journals for more discussion. We believe that research on estimating global burden of NHL can provide valuable insights for developing targeted prevention and control strategies, thereby achieving significant benefits.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD 42023404150.

Construction and evaluation of a practical model for measuring health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) in China

BACKGROUND

HALE is now a regular strategic planning indicator for all levels of the Chinese government. However, HALE measurements necessitate comprehensive data collection and intricate technology. Therefore, effectively converting numerous diseases into the years lived with disability (YLD) rate is a significant challenge for HALE measurements. Our study aimed to construct a simple YLD rate measurement model with high applicability based on the current situation of actual data resources within China to address challenges in measuring HALE target values during planning.

METHODS

First, based on the Chinese YLD rate in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, Pearson correlation analysis, the global optimum method, etc., was utilized to screen the best predictor variables from the current Chinese data resources. Missing data for predictor variables were filled in via spline interpolation. Then, multiple linear regression models were fitted to construct the YLD rate measurement model. The Sullivan method was used to measure HALE. The Monte Carlo method was employed to generate 95% uncertainty intervals. Finally, model performances were assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

RESULTS

A three-input-parameter model was constructed to measure the age-specific YLD rates by sex in China, directly using the incidence of infectious diseases, the incidence of chronic diseases among persons aged 15 and older, and the addition of an under-five mortality rate covariate. The total MAE and MAPE for the combined YLD rate were 0.0007 and 0.5949%, respectively. The MAE and MAPE of the combined HALE in the 0-year-old group were 0.0341 and 0.0526%, respectively. There were slightly fewer males (0.0197, 0.0311%) than females (0.0501, 0.0755%).

CONCLUSION

We constructed a high-accuracy model to measure the YLD rate in China by using three monitoring indicators from the Chinese national routine as predictor variables. The model provides a realistic and feasible solution for measuring HALE at the national and especially regional levels, considering limited data.

Global, regional, and national health inequalities of Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease in 204 countries, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) and Parkinson's disease (PD), pose growing global health challenges. Socio-demographic and economic development acts paradoxically, complicating the process that determines how governments worldwide designate policies and allocate resources for healthcare.

METHODS

We extracted data on ADRD and PD in 204 countries from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. Health disparities were estimated using the slope index of inequality (SII), and concentration index (CIX) based on the socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were employed to evaluate temporal trends.

RESULTS

Globally, the SII increased from 255.4 [95% confidence interval (CI), 215.2 to 295.5)] in 1990 to 559.3 (95% CI, 497.2 to 621.3) in 2019 for ADRD, and grew from 66.0 (95% CI, 54.9 to 77.2) in 1990 to 132.5 (95% CI, 118.1 to 147.0) in 2019 for PD; CIX rose from 33.7 (95% CI, 25.8 to 41.6) in 1990 to 36.9 (95% CI, 27.8 to 46.1) in 2019 for ADRD, and expanded from 22.2 (95% CI, 21.3 to 23.0) in 1990 to 29.0 (95% CI, 27.8 to 30.3) in 2019 for PD. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years displayed considerable upward trends for ADRD [EAPC = 0.43 (95% CI, 0.27 to 0.59)] and PD [0.34 (95% CI, 0.29 to 0.38)].

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, the burden of ADRD and PD continues to increase with growing health disparities. Variations in health inequalities and the impact of socioeconomic development on disease trends underscored the need for targeted policies and strategies, with heightened awareness, preventive measures, and active management of risk factors.

Temporal trends and projections in the global burden of neck pain: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

ABSTRACT

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 of neck pain burden, focusing on age-standardized incidence rates, age-standardized prevalence rates, and age-standardized years lived with disability (YLDs) rates at the global, regional, and national levels. The age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the effects of age (5-99 years), period (1990-2019), and cohort (1893-2012) at the global, regional, and national levels. Future projections for the global burden of neck pain from 2020 to 2044 were estimated using the nordpred age-period-cohort model. From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence, prevalence cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain have increased by 71.89%, 98.21%, and 78.17%, respectively. The joinpoint analysis indicated significant shifts in the global trends of age-standardized neck pain burden, which varied across regions and nations. The age-period-cohort model indicated that the neck pain burden was predominantly concentrated in middle-aged and older age, with period and cohort effects showing minimal variation from 1990 to 2019. Compared with 2019, the incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain were projected to increase by 134%, 142%, and 140% by 2044. The global burden of neck pain has persisted at a relatively elevated level from 1990 to 2019, with projections indicating a continuing upward trend. Future research is urgently needed to better understand the predictors and clinical course of neck pain and to enhance prevention and management strategies.

Global burden, trends, and cross-country inequalities of urinary tract infections in adolescents and young adults, 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Limited studies have evaluated the global burden, trends, and cross-country inequalities for urinary tract infections (UTIs) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs).

METHODS

Age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rate were used to describe the UTI burden. The estimated annual percentage changes were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The slope index of inequality and concentration index were utilized to quantify the distributive inequalities.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, a significant increase in age-standardized incidence rate (estimated annual percentage change =0.22%, 95% confidence interval 0.19%-0.26%) was found for UTIs in AYAs, and the increasing trend was more pronounced in males than females. Significant decreases in age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALY rate were found in females but not in males. The slope index of inequality changed from 21.80 DALYs per 100,000 in 1990 to 20.91 DALYs per 100,000 in 2019 for UTIs in AYAs. Moreover, the concentration index showed -0.23 in 1990 and -0.14 in 2019.

DISCUSSION

Countries with lower sociodemographic development levels shouldered a disproportionately higher UTI burden.

CONCLUSIONS

UTIs remain an ongoing health burden for AYAs globally, with substantial heterogeneities found across countries, sex, and age groups.

Kidney cancer in the Middle East and North Africa region: a 30-year analysis (1990-2019)

Kidney cancer, a type of urogenital cancer, imposes a high burden on patients. Despite this, no recent research has evaluated the burden of this type of cancer in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study explored the burden of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2019 according to age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI). The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data was utilized to estimate the incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by kidney cancer. These estimates were reported as counts and as age-standardised rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The estimated age-standardised incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of kidney cancer in 2019 were 3.2 (2.8-3.6), 1.4 (1.2-1.6), and 37.2 (32.0-42.6) per 100,000, respectively. Over the period from 1990 to 2019, these rates have increased by 98.0%, 48.9%, and 37.7%, respectively. In 2019, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Lebanon had the largest age-standardised incidence, mortality, and DALY rates. The smallest age-standardised incidence rates were seen in Yemen, Afghanistan, and the Syrian Arab Republic. Additionally, the smallest age-standardised mortality and DALY rates were observed in the Syrian Arab Republic, Yemen, and Morocco. The highest incidence rates were found among individuals aged 75-79 in both males and females. In 2019, the MENA/Global DALY ratio exceeded one for females aged 5-19 age and males aged 5-14, compared to 1990age groups in males. The burden of kidney cancer consistently rose with increasing SDI levels from 1990 to 2019. The increasing burden of kidney cancer highlights the urgent need for interventions aimed at improving early diagnosis and treatment in the region.

Burden of diseases due to high systolic blood pressure in the Middle East and North Africa region from 1990 to 2019

High systolic blood pressure (HSBP) is associated with several metabolic and non-metabolic disorders. This research aimed to document the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to HSBP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, underlying cause and socio-demographic index (SDI). We used the methodological framework and data drawn from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 to identify the burden of diseases attributable to HSBP, from 1990 to 2019, in the MENA region. The estimates reported were presented as counts, population-attributable fractions, and age-standardised rates (per 100,000), along with 95% uncertainty intervals. In 2019, 803.6 thousand (687.1 to 923.8) deaths were attributed to HSBP in MENA, which accounted for 25.9% (22.9-28.6%) of all deaths. The number of regional DALYs caused by HSBP in 2019 was 19.0 million (16.3-21.9 million), which accounted for 11.6% (10.1-13.3%) of all DALYs, and was 23.4% (15.9-31.5%) lower than in 1990. The highest age-standardised DALY rate for 2019 was observed in Afghanistan, with the lowest in Kuwait. Additionally, the DALY rate in MENA rose with age for both sexs. Furthermore, a negative linear relationship was found between SDI and the age-standardised DALY rates. The region has a substantial HSBP-related burden. Policymakers and healthcare professionals should prioritize interventions that effectively promote the early detection of HSBP, access to quality healthcare, and lifestyle modifications to mitigate the HSBP burden in the MENA countries.

Global burden of early-onset osteoarthritis, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

Early-onset osteoarthritis (OA) is an emerging health issue amidst the escalating prevalence of overweight and obesity. However, there are scant data on its disease, economic burden and attributable burden due to high body mass index (BMI).

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, we examined the numbers of incident cases, prevalent cases, years lived with disability (YLDs) and corresponding age-standardised rates for early-onset OA (diagnosis before age 55) from 1990 to 2019. The case definition was symptomatic and radiographically confirmed OA in any joint. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of the age-standardised rates were calculated to quantify changes. We estimated the economic burden of early-onset OA and attributable burden to high BMI.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global incident cases, prevalent cases and YLDs of early-onset OA were doubled. 52.31% of incident OA cases in 2019 were under 55 years. The age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence and YLDs increased globally and for countries in all Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles (all AAPCs>0, p<0.05), with the fastest increases in low-middle SDI countries. 98.04% of countries exhibited increasing trends in all age-standardised rates. Early-onset OA accounts for US$46.17 billion in healthcare expenditure and US$60.70 billion in productivity loss cost in 2019. The attributable proportion of high BMI for early-onset OA increased globally from 9.41% (1990) to 15.29% (2019).

CONCLUSIONS

Early-onset OA is a developing global health problem, causing substantial economic costs in most countries. Targeted implementation of cost-effective policies and preventive intervention is required to address the growing health challenge.

Global, regional and national time trends in incidence of adverse effects of medical treatment, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Current adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) incidence estimates rely on limited record reviews and underreporting surveillance systems. This study evaluated global and national longitudinal patterns in AEMT incidence from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework.

METHODS

AEMT was defined as harm resulting from a procedure, treatment or other contact with the healthcare system. The overall crude incidence rate, age-standardised incidence rate and their changes over time were analysed to evaluate temporal trends. Data were stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, age groups and sex to address heterogeneity across and within nations. An age-period-cohort model framework was used to differentiate the contributions of age, period and cohort effects on AEMT incidence changes. The model estimated overall and age-specific annual percentage changes in incidence rates.

FINDINGS

Although the global population increased 44.6% from 1990 to 2019, AEMT incidents rose faster by 59.3%. The net drift in the global incidence rate was 0.631% per year. The proportion of all cases accounted for by older adults and the incidence rate among older adults increased globally. The high SDI region had much higher and increasing incidence rates versus declining rates in lower SDI regions. The age effects showed that in the high SDI region, the incidence rate is higher among older adults. Globally, the period effect showed a rising incidence of risk after 2002. Lower SDI regions exhibited a significant increase in incidence risk after 2012. Globally, the cohort effect showed a continually increasing incidence risk across sequential birth cohorts from 1900 to 1950.

CONCLUSION

As the global population ageing intensifies alongside the increasing quantity of healthcare services provided, measures need to be taken to address the continuously rising burden of AEMT among the older population.

Global, regional and national burdens of Nasopharynx cancer in the adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions

PURPOSE

To use data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to report the global, regional and national rates and trends of deaths incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for Nasopharynx cancer (NPC) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs).

METHODS

Data from the GBD 2019 were used to analyze deaths incidence, prevalence and DALYs due to NPC at global, regional, and national levels. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPC). The association between incidence, prevalence and DALYs and socioeconomic development was analyzed using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Finally, projections were made until 2030 and calculated in Nordpred.

RESULTS

The incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs rates (95%UI) due to NPC 0.96 (0.85-1.09, 6.31 (5.54-7.20),0.20 (0.19-0.22), and 12.23(11.27-13.29) in 2019, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and prevalence rates increased by 1.79 (95% CI 1.03 to 2.55) and 2.97(95% CI 2.13 to 3.82) respectively while the deaths and DALYs rates declined by 1.64(95%CI 1.78 to 1.49) and 1.6(95%CI 1.75 to 1.4) respectively. Deaths and DALYs rates in South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and Middle East decreased with SDI. Incidence and prevalence rates in East Asia increased with SDI. At the national level, the incidence and prevalence rates are high in China, Taiwan(China), Singapore, Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Malta. Meanwhile, the deaths and DALYs rates are still high in Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Greenland and Taiwan(Province of China). The deaths and DALYs rates are low in Honduras, Finland and Norway. From the 2020 to 2030, ASIR、ASPR and ASDR in most regions are predicted to stable, but DALYs tends to decline.

CONCLUSION

NPC in AYAs is a significant global public problem. The incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates vary widely by region and country. Therefore different regions and countries should be targeted to improve the disease burden of NPC.

Prevalence and Burden of Multiple Sclerosis in China, 1990-2019: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the leading cause of neurologic disability in young adults, but the burden caused by MS in China is lacking. We aimed to comprehensively describe the prevalence and health loss due to MS by demographic and geographical variables from 1990 to 2019 across China.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019). We used GBD methodology to systematically analyze the prevalence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to MS by age, sex, and location from 1990 to 2019 in mainland China and its provinces. We also compared the MS burden in China with the world and other Group of 20 (G20) countries.

RESULTS

In 2019, 42,571 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33,001-53,329) individuals in China had MS, which doubled from 1990. The age-standardized prevalence rate of MS was 2.32 per 100,000 (95% UI 1.78-2.91), which increased by 23.31% (95% UI 20.50-25.89) from 1990, with most of the growth occurring after 2010. There was a positive latitudinal gradient with the increasing prevalence from south to north across China. The total DALYs caused by MS were 71,439 (95% UI 58,360-92,254) in 2019, ranking China third among G20 countries. Most of the MS burden in China derived from premature mortality, with the higher fraction of YLLs than that at the global level and most other G20 countries. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY and YLL rate had nonsignificant changes; however, the age-standardized YLD rate substantially increased by 23.33% (95% UI 20.50-25.89). The geographic distribution of MS burden varied at the provincial level in China, with a slight downward trend in the age-standardized DALY rates along with increasing Socio-Demographic Index over the study period.

DISCUSSION

Although China has a low risk of MS, the substantial and increasing prevalent cases should not be underestimated. The high burden due to premature death and geographic disparity of MS burden reveals insufficient management of MS in China, highlighting the needs for increased awareness and effective intervention.