T wave alternans is a predictor of death in patients with congestive heart failure

Baroreflex sensitivity but not microvolt T-wave alternans can predict major adverse cardiac events in ischemic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) constitutes the main cause of morbidity and mortality in ischemic heart failure (HF) patients. The prognostic value of the autonomic nervous system parameters and microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) in this issue has not been identified to date. The aim herein, was to assess the usefulness of the abovementioned parameters in the prediction of MACE in HF patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction of ischemic origin.

METHODS

Baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), heart rate variability (HRV), MTWA and other well-known clinical parameters were analyzed in 188 ischemic HF outpatients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 50%. During 34 (14-71) months of follow-up, 56 (30%) endpoints were noted.

RESULTS

Univariate Cox analyses revealed BRS (but not HRV), MTWA, age, New York Heart Association functional class III, LVEF, implantable cardioverter-defibrillator presence, use of diuretics and antiarrhythmic drugs, diabetes, and kidney insufficiency were defined as significant predictors of MACE. Pre-specified cut-off values for MACE occurrence for the aforementioned continuous parameters (age, LVEF, and BRS) were: ≥ 72 years, ≤ 33%, and ≤ 3 ms/mmHg, respectively. In a multivariate Cox analysis only BRS (HR 2.97, 95% CI 1.35-6.36, p < 0.006), and LVEF (HR 1.98, 95% CI 0.61-4.52, p < 0.038) maintained statistical significance in the prediction of MACE.

CONCLUSIONS

Baroreflex sensitivity and LVEF are independent of other well-known clinical parameters in the prediction of MACE in patients with HF of ischemic origin and LVEF up to 50%. BRS ≤ 3 ms/mmHg and LVEF ≤ 33% identified individuals with the highest probability of MACE during the follow-up period.

Microvolt T-wave alternans and autonomic nervous system parameters can be helpful in the identification of low-arrhythmic risk patients with ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction

INTRODUCTION

The role of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) placement in the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in all consecutive patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 35% is still a matter of hot debate due to the fact that the population of these patients is highly heterogeneous in terms of the SCD risk. Nevertheless, reduced LVEF is still the only established criterion during qualification of patients for ICD implantation in the primary prevention of SCD, therefore identification of persons with particularly high risk among patients with LVEF ≤35% is currently of lesser importance. More important seems to be the selection of individuals with relatively low risk of SCD in whom ICD implantation can be safely postponed. The aim of the study was to determine whether well-known, non-invasive parameters, such as microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA), baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) and short-term heart rate variability (HRV), can be helpful in the identification of low-arrhythmic risk patients with ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

METHODS

In 141 patients with coronary artery disease and LVEF ≤ 35%, MTWA testing, as well as BRS and short-term HRV parameters, were analysed. During 34 ± 13 months of follow-up 37 patients had arrhythmic episode (EVENT): SCD, non-fatal sustained ventricular arrhythmia (ventricular tachycardia [VT] or ventricular fibrillation [VF]), or adequate high-voltage ICD intervention (shock) due to a rapid ventricular arrhythmia ≥200/min. LVEF, non-negative MTWA (MTWA_non-neg), BRS and low frequency power in normalized units (LFnu) turned out to be associated with the incidence of EVENT in univariate Cox analysis. The cut-off values for BRS and LFnu that most accurately distinguished between patients with and without EVENT were 3 ms/mmHg and 23, respectively. The only variable that provided 100% negative predictive value (NPV) for EVENT was negative MTWA result (MTWA_neg), but solely for initial 12 months of the follow-up; the NPVs for other potential predictors of the EVENT were lower. The cut-off values for BRS and LFnu that provide 100% NPV for EVENT during 12 and 24 months were higher: 6.0 ms/mmHg and 73 respectively, but the gain in the NPV occurred at an expense of the number of identified patients. However, the number of identified non-risk patients turned out to be higher when the predictive model included MTWA_neg and the lower cut-off values for ANS parameters: 100% NPV for 12 and 24 months of follow-up was obtained for combination MTWA_neg and BRS ≥ 3 ms/mmHg, for combination MTWA_neg and LFnu ≥ 23 100% NPV was obtained for 12 months.

CONCLUSION

Well-known, non-invasive parameters, such as MTWA, BRS and short-term HRV indices may be helpful in the identification of individuals with a relatively low risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias among patients with ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction; in such persons, implantation of ICD could be safely postponed.

Ability of microvolt T-wave alternans to modify risk assessment of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have indicated that the magnitude of risk association of microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) testing appears to vary with the population studied. We performed a meta-analysis to determine the ability of MTWA to modify risk assessment of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events (VTEs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) across a series of patient risk profiles using likelihood ratio (LR) testing, a measure of test performance independent of disease prevalence.

METHODS

We identified original research articles published from January 1990 to January 2011 that investigate spectrally derived MTWA. Ventricular tachyarrhythmic event was defined as the total and arrhythmic mortality and nonfatal sustained or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator-treated ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Summary estimates were created for positive and nonnegative MTWA results using a random-effects model and were expressed as positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) LRs.

RESULTS

Of 1,534 articles, 20 prospective cohort studies met our inclusion criteria, consisting of 5,945 subjects predominantly with prior myocardial infarction or left ventricular dysfunction. Although there was a modest association between positive MTWA and VTE (relative risk 2.45, 1.58-3.79) and nonnegative MTWA and VTE (3.68, 2.23-6.07), test performance was poor (positive MTWA: LR+ 1.78, LR- 0.43; nonnegative MTWA: LR+ 1.38, LR- 0.56). Subgroup analyses of subjects classified as prior VTE, post-myocardial infarction, SCD-HeFT type, and MADIT-II type had a similar poor test performance. A negative MTWA result would decrease the annualized risk of VTE from 8.85% to 6.37% in MADIT-II-type patients and from 5.91% to 2.60% in SCD-HeFT-type patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a modest association, results of spectrally derived MTWA testing do not sufficiently modify the risk of VTE to change clinical decisions.

Predictive value of microvolt T-wave alternans for cardiac death or ventricular tachyarrhythmic events in ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy patients: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) has been proposed as a predictor of the risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VT) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Aim of this study was to perform a systematic review of the literature and a meta-analysis of MTWA in primary prevention patients with ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy.

METHODS

The positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and relative risk (RR) of MTWA in predicting death, cardiac death, and SCD during follow-up were reported.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies involving 5681 patients (mean age 62 years, mean ejection fraction 32%) were included. The summary PPV during the average 26-month follow-up was 14% (95% CI: 13-15); NPV was 95% (95% CI: 94-96), and the univariate RR was 2.35 (95% CI: 1.68-3.28). The predictive value of MTWA was similar in patients with ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy. The average RR for SCD or VT events of an abnormal MTWA was 2.40, similar to that for cardiac death. When we grouped the studies together depending upon whether beta-blockers were withheld prior to MTWA screening, the beta-blockers group showed an RR of 5.88. By contrast, the group in which beta-blocker therapy was withheld had an RR of 1.63.

CONCLUSION

A positive MTWA determined an approximately 2.5-fold higher risk of cardiac death and life-threatening arrhythmia and showed a very high NPV both in ischemic and nonischemic patients. An abnormal MTWA test was associated with a 5-fold increased risk for cardiac mortality in the low-indeterminate group and about a 6-fold increased risk in beta-blockers group.

Profile of microvolt T-wave alternans testing in 1003 patients hospitalized with heart failure

AIMS

Observational studies in selected populations have suggested that microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) testing may identify patients with heart failure (HF) at risk of sudden cardiac death. The aims of this study were to investigate the utility of MTWA testing in an unselected population of patients with HF and to evaluate the clinical characteristics associated with the MTWA results.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 1003 patients hospitalized with decompensated HF were enrolled. MTWA testing was planned 1 month post-discharge; 648 patients returned for MTWA testing. Mean age was 70.8 ± 10.6 years and 58% were male. Of these patients who returned, 318 (49%) were ineligible for MTWA testing due to atrial fibrillation (AF), pacemaker dependency, or physical inability to undertake the test. Of the MTWA tests, 100 (30%) were positive, 78 (24%) were negative, and 152 (46%) were indeterminate; 112/152 indeterminate tests (74%) occurred because of failure to achieve target heart rate (HR) due to chronotropic incompetence or physical limitations. There were differences in patient characteristics according to MTWA result. Independent predictors of a negative result included younger age and higher left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Independent predictors of a positive result included higher HR during MTWA testing and lower LVEF. Independent predictors of an indeterminate result included older age and history of previous/paroxysmal AF.

CONCLUSIONS

Only half of patients with HF are eligible for MTWA testing and the most common result is an indeterminate test. Patients with positive and indeterminate tests have different clinical characteristics. MTWA treadmill testing is not widely applicable in typical HF patients and is unlikely to refine risk stratification for sudden death on a population level.

Microvolt T-wave alternans, peak oxygen consumption, and outcome in patients with severely impaired left ventricular systolic function

BACKGROUND

Abnormal microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) and low peak oxygen consumption (VO2) both predict poor outcome in heart failure. However, their independent predictive properties have not been assessed in large-scale cohorts.

METHODS

This was an observational prospective cohort study of 303 consecutive patients referred for metabolic stress testing. All had an ejection fraction < or = 40% and were considered candidates for transplantation. The exercise laboratory did not collect MTWA data from patients with implanted pacemakers or defibrillators. The primary end point was a composite of all-cause death or United Network for Organ Sharing status 1 transplantation.

RESULTS

During a 2.8-year period, there were 34 deaths and 17 transplantations. Patients with abnormal MTWA had a higher event rate of 23% (31 of 136) vs 12% (20 of 167), with an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90-3.33; p = 0.03). The association remained significant after adjustment for 3 clinical variables (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.05-3.39; p = 0.03). After adding peak VO2 to the model, the association was no longer significant (adjusted HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.64-2.17, p = 0.60). After accounting for peak VO2 and 28 other confounders in a matched propensity analysis, MTWA was not predictive (propensity-matched HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.37-1.66; p = 0.53).

CONCLUSIONS

These results confirm the association of abnormal MTWA with poor outcome amongst patients with impaired left ventricular systolic function. However, this association is markedly attenuated after accounting for peak VO2.

Microvolt T-wave alternans and the selective use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for primary prevention: A cost-effectiveness study

Objectives:Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) are an effective but expensive treatment for the prevention of sudden cardiac deaths in patients with severe left-ventricular dysfunction. Recent studies suggest that microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) predicts mortality and severe arrhythmic events in this population. However, the impact of MTWA on ICD cost-effectiveness is unknown.

Methods:A Markov decision-analysis model evaluated three treatment strategies for primary prevention in patients with severe left-ventricular dysfunction: (i) medical therapy for all; (ii) ICD therapy for all; and (iii) selective ICD therapy based on non-negative (positive or indeterminate) MTWA test results. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated from the perspective of a third party payer using a 10-year time horizon. Sensitivity analyses examined the robustness of the estimates.

Results:A treatment strategy involving ICD therapy in all patients was associated with an ICER of $121,800/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) compared with medical therapy, whereas a treatment strategy involving the selective use of ICDs based on MTWA test results was associated with an ICER of $108,900/QALY compared with medical therapy. Sensitivity analyses suggest that, under most scenarios, the selective use of ICDs based on MTWA results does not decrease the ICER to below $100,000/QALY.

Conclusion:MTWA only marginally improves the cost-effectiveness of ICDs for primary prevention in patients with severe left-ventricular dysfunction. There remains a need for improved means to effectively identify which patients will derive the greatest benefit from ICD implantation.

Multiple defects in intracellular calcium cycling in whole failing rat heart

BACKGROUND

A number of defects in excitation-contraction coupling have been identified in failing mammalian hearts. The goal of this study was to measure the defects in intracellular Ca(2+) cycling in left ventricular epicardial myocytes of the whole heart in an animal model of congestive heart failure (CHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Intracellular Ca(2+) transients were measured using confocal microscopy in whole rat hearts from age-matched Wistar-Kyoto control rats and spontaneously hypertensive rats at approximately 23 months of age. Basal Ca(2+) transients in myocytes in spontaneously hypertensive rats were smaller in amplitude and longer in duration than Wistar-Kyoto control rats. There was also greater variability in transient characteristics associated with duration between myocytes of CHF than Wistar-Kyoto controls. Approximately 21% of CHF myocytes demonstrated spontaneous Ca(2+) waves compared with very little of this activity in Wistar-Kyoto control rats. A separate population of spontaneously hypertensive rat myocytes showed Ca(2+) waves that were triggered during pacing and were absent at rest (triggered waves). Rapid pacing protocols caused Ca(2+) alternans to develop at slower heart rates in CHF.

CONCLUSIONS

Epicardial cells demonstrate both serious defects and greater cell-to-cell variability in Ca(2+) cycling in CHF. The defects in Ca(2+) cycling include both spontaneous and triggered waves of Ca(2+) release, which promote triggered activity. The slowing of Ca(2+) repriming in the sarcoplasmic reticulum is probably responsible for the increased vulnerability to Ca(2+) alternans in CHF. Our results suggest that defective Ca(2+) cycling could contribute both to reduced cardiac output in CHF and to the establishment of repolarization gradients, thus creating the substrate for reentrant arrhythmias.

Microvolt T-wave alternans as a predictor of mortality and severe arrhythmias in patients with left-ventricular dysfunction: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies have demonstrated that the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) is effective for the primary prevention of arrhythmic events but due to imposing costs, there remains a need to identify which patients will derive the greatest benefit. Microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) has been proposed to assist in this stratification.

METHODS

We systematically searched the literature using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Current Contents, the Cochrane Library, INAHTA, and the Web of Science to identify all primary prevention randomized controlled trials and prospective cohort studies with at least 12 months of follow-up examining MTWA as a predictor of mortality and severe arrhythmic events in patients with severe left-ventricular dysfunction. The search was limited to full-text English publications between January 1990 and May 2007. The primary outcome was a composite of mortality and severe arrhythmias. Data were synthesized using Bayesian hierarchical models.

RESULTS

We identified no trials and 8 published cohort studies involving a total of 1,946 patients, including 332 positive, 656 negative, 84 indeterminate, and 874 non-negative (which includes both positive and indeterminate tests) MTWA test results. The risk of mortality or severe arrhythmic events was higher in patients with a positive MTWA compared to a negative test (RR = 2.7, 95% credible interval (CrI) = 1.4, 6.1). Similar results were obtained when comparing non-negative MTWA to a negative test.

CONCLUSION

A positive MTWA test predicts mortality or severe arrhythmic events in a population of individuals with severe left ventricular dysfunction. However, the wide credible interval suggests the clinical utility of this test remains incompletely defined, ranging from very modest to substantial. Additional high quality studies are required to better refine the role of MTWA in the decision making process for ICD implantation.

T-wave alternans and sudden cardiac death

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease and left ventricular dysfunction. The majority of SCD are due to ventricular tachyarrhythmias. SCD strikes many asymptomatic patients and often is the first manifestation of heart disease. Thus, reliable determination of arrhythmic risk is warranted to guide preventive therapy. To highlight the prognostic value of microvolt-level electrical alternans of the T-wave (MTWA) in patients at risk for SCD, most of the pertinent published articles in the Medline, Scopus, and EBSCO Host research databases have been reviewed. MTWA has been proposed to be a strong and independent predictor of all-cause and arrhythmic mortality. The high predictive value of MTWA in patient with cardiomyopathy varies significantly depending on the population studied. Combining with other indices or having serial MTWA readings could overcome MTWA limitations. Redefining MTWA readings may expand its prognostic utility.

Prognostic value of T-wave alternans in patients with heart failure due to nonischemic cardiomyopathy: results of the ALPHA Study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of T-wave alternans (TWA) in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class II/III patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < or =40%.

BACKGROUND

There is a strong need to identify reliable risk stratifiers among heart failure candidates for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) prophylaxis. T-wave alternans may identify low-risk subjects among post-myocardial infarction patients with depressed LVEF, but its predictive role in nonischemic cardiomyopathy is unclear.

METHODS

Four hundred forty-six patients were enrolled and followed up for 18 to 24 months. The primary end point was the combination of cardiac death + life-threatening arrhythmias; secondary end points were total mortality and the combination of arrhythmic death + life-threatening arrhythmias.

RESULTS

Patients with abnormal TWA (65%) compared with normal TWA (35%) tests were older (60 +/- 13 years vs. 57 +/- 12 years), were more frequently in NYHA functional class III (22% vs. 19%), and had a modestly lower LVEF (29 +/- 7% vs. 31 +/- 7%). Primary end point rates in patients with abnormal and normal TWA tests were 6.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.5% to 9.4%) and 1.6% (95% CI 0.6% to 4.4%), respectively. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios were 4.0 (95% CI 1.4% to 11.4%; p = 0.002) and 3.2 (95% CI 1.1% to 9.2%; p = 0.013), respectively. Hazard ratios for total mortality and for arrhythmic death + life-threatening arrhythmias were 4.6 (p = 0.002) and 5.5 (p = 0.004), respectively; 18-month negative predictive values for the 3 end points ranged between 97.3% and 98.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Among NYHA functional class II/III nonischemic cardiomyopathy patients, an abnormal TWA test is associated with a 4-fold higher risk of cardiac death and life-threatening arrhythmias. Patients with normal TWA tests have a very good prognosis and are likely to benefit little from ICD therapy.

Combined prognostic value of peak O(2) uptake and microvolt level T-wave alternans in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

Despite the great improvement in clinical management of patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), sudden cardiac death (SCD) and death due to worsening heart failure (HF) remain a challenging problem. The assessment of oxygen consumption (peakVO(2)) has been recognized as an independent marker of mortality. Nevertheless peakVO(2) is not helpful in the risk stratification of SCD. Given this limitation, the association with another non-invasive test able to predict SCD such as microvolt level T-wave alternans (MTWA) would be useful.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the combined predictive value of peakVO(2) and MTWA in patients with DCM.

METHODS

Seventy consecutive DCM patients were prospectively investigated. PeakVO(2) and MTWA were determined during bicycle exercise testing. Primary composite study end-point was defined as major cardiac events (MCE): total cardiac death or documented sustained VT/VF (including appropriate ICD shock). Secondary end-point was defined as arrhythmic events (AE): SCD or documented sustained VT/VF.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine patients (55%) had a peakVO(2)<10 ml/kg/min, while 40 patients (57%) showed an abnormal MTWA test. During an average follow-up of 19.2+/-10.7 months, 11 MCE of which 6 AE have been documented. Among patients with abnormal MTWA and peakVO(2)<10 ml/kg/min 8 MCE of which 5 AE occurred while among patients with normal MTWA and peakVO(2)> or =10 ml/kg/min no event occurred. From multivariate analysis, the combined prognostic value of MTWA and peakVO(2) achieved statistical significance for MCE (p=0.03, HR 0.28, 95% CI 0.12-0.95) and for AE (p=0.05, HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.18-0.99) while MTWA alone was a significant predictor of AE (p=0.04, HR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that only the association of MTWA and peakVO(2), but not the two single tests, is a significant prognostic marker of both MCE and AE in DCM patients. However, MTWA alone confirms its predictive power as arrhythmic risk stratifier in this population.

Assessing the proarrhythmic potential of drugs: current status of models and surrogate parameters of torsades de pointes arrhythmias

Torsades de pointes (TdP) is a potentially lethal cardiac arrhythmia that can occur as an unwanted adverse effect of various pharmacological therapies. Before a drug is approved for marketing, its effects on cardiac repolarisation are examined clinically and experimentally. This paper expresses the opinion that effects on repolarisation duration cannot directly be translated to risk of proarrhythmia. Current safety assessments of drugs only involve repolarisation assays, however the proarrhythmic profile can only be determined in the predisposed model. The availability of these proarrhythmic animal models is emphasised in the present paper. It is feasible for the pharmaceutical industry to establish one or more of these proarrhythmic animal models and large benefits are potentially available if pharmaceutical industries and patient-care authorities embraced these models. Furthermore, suggested surrogate parameters possessing predictive power of TdP arrhythmia are reviewed. As these parameters are not developed to finalisation, any meaningful study of the proarrhythmic potential of a new drug will include evaluation in an integrated model of TdP arrhythmia.

Microvolt T-Wave Alternans for the Risk Stratification of Ventricular Tachyarrhythmic Events

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to perform a meta-analysis of the predictive value of microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) testing for arrhythmic events in a wide variety of populations.

BACKGROUND

Previous studies describing the use of MTWA as a predictor of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events have been limited by small sample sizes and disparate populations.

METHODS

Prospective studies of the predictive value of exercise-induced MTWA published between January 1990 and December 2004 were retrieved. Data from each article were abstracted independently by two authors using a standardized protocol. Summary estimates of the predictive value of MTWA were made using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Data were accumulated from 19 studies (2,608 subjects) across a wide range of populations. Overall, the positive predictive value of MTWA for arrhythmic events was 19.3% at an average of 21 months' follow-up (95% confidence interval [CI] 17.7% to 21.0%), the negative predictive value was 97.2% (95% CI 96.5% to 97.9%), and the univariate relative risk of an arrhythmic event was 3.77 (95% CI 2.39 to 5.95). There was no difference in predictive value between ischemic and nonischemic heart failure subgroups. The positive predictive value varied depending on the population of patients studied (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Microvolt T-wave alternans testing has significant value for the prediction of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events; however, there are significant limitations to its use. The predictive value of MTWA varies significantly depending on the population studied. Careful standardization is needed for what constitutes abnormal MTWA. The incremental prognostic value of MTWA when used with other methods of risk stratification is unclear.