Bayesian methods for estimating pathogen prevalence within groups of animals from faecal-pat sampling

Basic Reproduction Number and Transmission Dynamics of Common Serogroups of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli

Understanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents.

IMPORTANCE

In this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk in the population. We incorporated different sensitivity levels of detecting different serotypes and evaluated their potential influence on the estimation of basic reproduction numbers.

Is chytridiomycosis an emerging infectious disease in Asia?

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has caused dramatic amphibian population declines and extinctions in Australia, Central and North America, and Europe. Bd is associated with >200 species extinctions of amphibians, but not all species that become infected are susceptible to the disease. Specifically, Bd has rapidly emerged in some areas of the world, such as in Australia, USA, and throughout Central and South America, causing population and species collapse. The mechanism behind the rapid global emergence of the disease is poorly understood, in part due to an incomplete picture of the global distribution of Bd. At present, there is a considerable amount of geographic bias in survey effort for Bd, with Asia being the most neglected continent. To date, Bd surveys have been published for few Asian countries, and infected amphibians have been reported only from Indonesia, South Korea, China and Japan. Thus far, there have been no substantiated reports of enigmatic or suspected disease-caused population declines of the kind that has been attributed to Bd in other areas. In order to gain a more detailed picture of the distribution of Bd in Asia, we undertook a widespread, opportunistic survey of over 3,000 amphibians for Bd throughout Asia and adjoining Papua New Guinea. Survey sites spanned 15 countries, approximately 36° latitude, 111° longitude, and over 2000 m in elevation. Bd prevalence was very low throughout our survey area (2.35% overall) and infected animals were not clumped as would be expected in epizootic events. This suggests that Bd is either newly emerging in Asia, endemic at low prevalence, or that some other ecological factor is preventing Bd from fully invading Asian amphibians. The current observed pattern in Asia differs from that in many other parts of the world.

Frequentist and Bayesian approaches to prevalence estimation using examples from Johne's disease

Although frequentist approaches to prevalence estimation are simple to apply, there are circumstances where it is difficult to satisfy assumptions of asymptotic normality and nonsensical point estimates (greater than 1 or less than 0) may result. This is particularly true when sample sizes are small, test prevalences are low and imperfect sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests need to be incorporated into calculations of true prevalence. Bayesian approaches offer several advantages including direct computation of range-respecting interval estimates (e.g. intervals between 0 and 1 for prevalence) without the requirement of transformations or large-sample approximations. They also allow direct probabilistic interpretation, and the flexibility to model in a straightforward manner the probability of zero prevalence. In this review, we present frequentist and Bayesian methods for animal- and herd-level true prevalence estimation based on individual and pooled samples. We provide statistical methods for detecting differences between population prevalence and frequentist methods for sample size and power calculations. All examples are motivated usingMycobacterium aviumsubspeciesparatuberculosisinfection and we provide WinBUGS code for all examples of Bayesian estimation.

Developing water quality standards for coastal dolphins

The EU Habitats Directive requires Member States to consider the potential impact of sewage discharges on protected wildlife populations, but efforts to reduce these threats are constrained by the lack of appropriate water quality guidelines for wildlife. In Scotland, recommendations for higher discharge standards in areas frequented by bottlenose dolphins have been criticised on the basis of scientific uncertainty. This Viewpoint article outlines the background to this issue, and discusses whether the scientific frameworks used for assessing water quality standards for human bathers can realistically be used to develop water quality standards for coastal dolphins. Importantly, it highlights that widely accepted EU standards for human bathers are based on extremely limited scientific data, and argues that unrealistic demands for empirical data from wildlife populations should not prevent more precautionary measures being introduced to reduce disease risks to these species.

Rectoanal junction colonization of feedlot cattle by Escherichia coli O157:H7 and its association with supershedders and excretion dynamics

Feedlot cattle were observed for fecal excretion of and rectoanal junction (RAJ) colonization with Escherichia coli O157:H7 to identify potential "supershedders." RAJ colonization and fecal excretion prevalences were correlated, and E. coli O157:H7 prevalences and counts were significantly greater for RAJ samples. Based on a comparison of RAJ and fecal ratios of E. coli O157:H7/E. coli counts, the RAJ appears to be preferentially colonized by the O157:H7 serotype. Five supershedders were identified based on persistent colonization with high concentrations of E. coli O157:H7. Cattle copenned with supershedders had significantly greater mean pen E. coli O157:H7 RAJ and fecal prevalences than noncopenned cattle. Cumulative fecal E. coli O157:H7 excretion was also significantly higher for pens housing a supershedder. E. coli O157:H7/E. coli count ratios were higher for supershedders than for other cattle, indicating greater proportional colonization. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis demonstrated that isolates from supershedders and copenned cattle were highly related. Cattle that remained negative for E. coli O157:H7 throughout sampling were five times more likely to have been in a pen that did not house a supershedder. The data from this study support an association between levels of fecal excretion of E. coli O157:H7 and RAJ colonization in pens of feedlot cattle and suggest that the presence of supershedders influences group-level excretion parameters. An improved understanding of individual and population transmission dynamics of E. coli O157:H7 can be used to develop preslaughter- and slaughter-level interventions that reduce contamination of the food chain.

Super-shedding cattle and the transmission dynamics of Escherichia coli O157

The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 displays striking variability across the Scottish cattle population. On 78% of farms, in a cross-sectional survey of 952, no shedding of E. coli O157 was detected, but on a small proportion, approximately 2%, very high prevalences of infection were found (with 90-100% of pats sampled being positive). We ask whether this variation arises from the inherent stochasticity in transmission dynamics or whether it is a signature of underlying heterogeneities in the cattle population. A novel approach is taken whereby the cross-sectional data are viewed as providing independent snapshots of a dynamic process. Using maximum-likelihood methods to fit time-dependent epidemiological models to the data we obtain estimates for the rates of immigration and transmission of E. coli O157 infection - parameters which have not been previously quantified in the literature. A comparison of alternative model fits reveals that the variation in the prevalence data is best explained when a proportion of the cattle are assumed to transmit infection at much higher levels than the rest - the so-called super-shedders. Analysis of a second dataset, comprising samples taken from 32 farms at monthly intervals over a period of 1 year, additionally yields an estimate for the rate of recovery from infection. The pattern of prevalence displayed in the second dataset also strongly supports the super-shedder hypothesis.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy risk assessment: the UK experience

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom have mainly had the objective of determining the risks posed to humans from exposure to the causal agents associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease (vCJD). In this article, I examine 19 of these risk assessments published to date and consider how their results might be influenced by underlying model assumptions and methodology. Three separate aspects common to all the assessments are infective load estimation, exposure pathway identification, and risk estimation. These are each discussed in detail.

An evaluation of United Kingdom environmental bovine spongiform encephalopathy risk assessment

As a member of the group of diseases known as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has been causally associated with a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans. Given the many uncertainties on the transmission and persistence of TSE pathogens in the environment, quantitative assessment of risks to humans and animals continues to remain a public health issue. This paper reviews quantitative BSE risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom since 1997 to address the potential for human exposure and theoretical health risks through environmental pathways. The review focuses on how model assumptions and methodology may influence the results.

Effect of length of time before incorporation on survival of pathogenic bacteria present in livestock wastes applied to agricultural soil

In response to reports that the contamination of food can occur during the on-farm primary phase of food production, we report data that describes a possible cost-effective intervention measure. The effect of time before soil incorporation of livestock wastes spread to land on the rate of decline of zoonotic agents present in the waste was investigated. Fresh livestock wastes were inoculated with laboratory-cultured Salmonella, Listeria, and Campylobacter spp. and Escherichia coli O157 before they were spread onto soil. Incorporation of the spread wastes was either immediate, delayed for 1 week, or did not occur at all. Bacterial decline was monitored over time and found to be significantly more rapid for all waste types when they were left on the soil surface. There were no significant differences in initial bacterial decline rates when wastes were spread in summer or winter. Our results indicate that not incorporating contaminated livestock wastes into soil is a potential intervention measure that may help to limit the spread of zoonotic agents further up the food chain. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to current advice for livestock waste disposal.

Dispersion and transport of Cryptosporidium Oocysts from fecal pats under simulated rainfall events

The dispersion and initial transport of Cryptosporidium oocysts from fecal pats were investigated during artificial rainfall events on intact soil blocks (1,500 by 900 by 300 mm). Rainfall events of 55 mm h(-1) for 30 min and 25 mm h(-1) for 180 min were applied to soil plots with artificial fecal pats seeded with approximately 10(7) oocysts. The soil plots were divided in two, with one side devoid of vegetation and the other left with natural vegetation cover. Each combination of event intensity and duration, vegetation status, and degree of slope (5 degrees and 10 degrees ) was evaluated twice. Generally, a fivefold increase (P < 0.05) in runoff volume was generated on bare soil compared to vegetated soil, and significantly more infiltration, although highly variable, occurred through the vegetated soil blocks (P < 0.05). Runoff volume, event conditions (intensity and duration), vegetation status, degree of slope, and their interactions significantly affected the load of oocysts in the runoff. Surface runoff transported from 10(0.2) oocysts from vegetated loam soil (25-mm h(-1), 180-min event on 10 degrees slope) to up to 10(4.5) oocysts from unvegetated soil (55-mm h(-1), 30-min event on 10 degrees slope) over a 1-m distance. Surface soil samples downhill of the fecal pat contained significantly higher concentrations of oocysts on devegetated blocks than on vegetated blocks. Based on these results, there is a need to account for surface soil vegetation coverage as well as slope and rainfall runoff in future assessments of Cryptosporidium transport and when managing pathogen loads from stock grazing near streams within drinking water watersheds.